Now that we have whittled the number of unbeatens down to single digits, it’s time for Pikes Picks to take a look at the national title race. In this installment I will take a look at the nine remaining undefeated teams, break down each of their remaining schedules, and give you my pick on which teams will finish undefeated and which teams will play in the BCS National Title Game.
BALL STATE (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, @Miami(OH), @Central Michigan, Western Michigan, MAC Championship GameChance of going undefeated: 40%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 10%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Ball State is led by their outstanding quarterback Nate Davis. Unfortunately, their other Faulk Trophy candidate, wide receiver Dante Love, suffered a spine injury earlier this season that will likely end his football career. The Cardinals have played well since losing Love, but will they be able to go to Mount Pleasant, Michigan in late November and knock off MAC stalwart Central Michigan? I’m not sure they can.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, no BCS bowl
TULSA (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: UCF, @Arkansas, @Houston, Tulane, @Marshall, Conference USA Championship GameChance of going undefeated: 60%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 25%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Todd Graham and Gus Malzahn have the Golden Hurricane offense tearing through opposing defenses like, well, a Golden Hurricane. They are averaging 56.6 points per game and put up 77 on UTEP last Saturday! Senior quarterback David Johnson is in his first year starting, but has already displayed big play ability thanks to his great touch on the deep throws. The defense hasn’t really needed to do much this year, so there are still question marks on that side of the ball that need to be answered on back to back road trips to Arkansas and Houston if Tulsa is to remain undefeated.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-1, Conference USA champs, no BCS bowl
BOISE STATE (6-0)
Remaining Schedule: @San Jose State, @New Mexico State, Utah State, @Idaho, @Nevada, Fresno StateChance of going undefeated: 80%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 70%
Chance of playing for the national title: 2%
Boise State is surprisingly led by a freshman quarterback and a stout defense. Defense is definitely not the first thing that comes to mind when discussing the Broncos, but this unit is pretty good. Only one team has managed to top 7 points against Boise so far and that was Oregon - who only had 13 points entering the fourth quarter. The Boise State secondary is playing extremely well so far, picking off 11 passes and limiting opponents to below 50% completions. But the gutsy play of freshman quarterback Kellen Moore is the reason the Broncos will most likely run the table.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-0, WAC champs, BCS Bowl
TEXAS TECH (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, @Oklahoma, Baylor, Big XII Championship GameChance of going undefeated: 0%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 5%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Texas Tech made it to 7-0 by playing a schedule that consisted of two Division 1-AA opponents and exactly zero teams ranked anywhere near the top 25. The past two weeks the Red Raiders have struggled against the mediocre teams in the Big XII, so there is a good chance they could lose each of the next four games against the better teams in the conference. At least head coach Mike Leach will still have his offensive stats to fall back on when he’s 8-4 again.
J.Pike’s Pick: 9-3, no BCS bowl
UTAH (8-0)
Remaining Schedule: @New Mexico, TCU, @San Diego State, BYUChance of going undefeated: 55%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 55%
Chance of playing for the national title: 5%
Don’t discount the Mountain West Conference because Utah is for real. The Utes have stormed out to an 8-0 start thanks to an aggressive defense and Faulk Trophy favorite QB Brian Johnson. The meat of the schedule remains with nationally ranked TCU and BYU. Both games are at home, but both teams will present legitimate challenges in completely different ways. If Utah makes it through the rest of the season undefeated, they should easily grab their second ever BCS Bowl berth.
J.Pike’s Pick: 11-1, Utes will be more deserving of a BCS bowl bid than Boise State, but won’t get one
OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Texas, Iowa State, @Texas Tech, @Colorado, Oklahoma, Big XII Championship GameChance of going undefeated: 10%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 15%
Chance of playing for the national title: 5%
We’ll find out just how for real the Cowboys are this weekend when they travel to Austin to face #1 ranked Texas. Mike Gundy and the Pokes have been one of the biggest surprises of 2008 not because of their prolific, balanced offense, but because of their surprising improvement on defense. Again, we’ll find out how much better they are on defense this weekend. Since Gundy took over the play calling again (former OC Larry Fedora took the head coaching job at Southern Miss in the offseason), the offense has gotten more physical thanks to the running of Kendall Hunter. With Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma left on the schedule though, chances are slim they make it through unscathed.
J.Pike’s Pick: 9-3, no BCS bowl
ALABAMA (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Tennessee, Arkansas State, @LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, SEC Championship GameChance of going undefeated: 50%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 90%
Chance of playing for the national title: 45%
If there’s one word you could use to describe Alabama, it’s “physical”. The Crimson Tide are looking to beat up every last team on their schedule and anybody who doubts them. That approach will win them a lot of games, but the lack of consistency on offense will make it difficult to run through the SEC undefeated.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-1, BCS bowl
PENN STATE (8-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Ohio State, @Iowa, Indiana, Michigan StateChance of going undefeated: 80%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 95%
Chance of playing for the national title: 75%
If you haven’t had the chance to watch this Penn State team yet, make sure and tune in Saturday night when the Nittany Lions invade the Horseshoe. Joe Paterno’s squad is probably the most well-rounded team in the nation. Quarterback Darrell Clark steadies a speedy offense that can run between the tackles with the immensely underrated Evan Royster, or pick you apart in the passing game with three senior wide receivers. Aaron Maybin (10 sacks) and the defensive line is flat out dominating right now, which has allowed the ballhawking secondary to roam free and intercept 11 passes. Don’t discount the senior leadership on this team. Playing in the Big Ten means they have the best shot at going undefeated, and therefore playing in the BCS Championship Game.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-0, National Title game
TEXAS (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: Oklahoma State, @Texas Tech, Baylor, @Kansas, Texas A&M, Big XII Championship GameChance of going undefeated: 70%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 98%
Chance of playing for the national title: 70%
If defense wins championships, the Longhorns are definitely in the discussion. Will Muschamp has his troops playing as aggressively as anybody, and when you have linemen that are as physically dominant as Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller it makes everybody look good. But the reason this team is dangerous is their hunger to win. When Colt McCoy takes the Sports Illustrated with his image on the cover and throws it in the trash before the Missouri game, you know this is a special team. Difficult games against Oklahoma State and Kansas loom large, but this Texas teams seems to be up to any task.
J.Pike’s Pick: 13-0, Big XII Champs, National Title game
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