WEEK THIRTEEN - Preview

Michigan (+20½) over Ohio State
Call it a hunch, or call it a reaction to the widely held opinion that Ohio State is going to blow Michigan out – I feel like Michigan will cover this spread. The Wolverines aren’t as bad as their record, and Ohio State doesn’t typically blow people out. Michigan will play one good half and one bad half as usual, but I think the good half will be enough to keep the final score within three touchdowns.

Air Force (+18½) over TCU
I have my concerns over whether TCU will “show up” for this game or not. Even if they do, I’m not sure they can beat Air Force by more than 18 points. The Falcons have a pesky habit of hanging around.

Middle Tennessee (-19½) over North Texas High
There are only two more chances to bet against North Texas this season!

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Buffalo (+3½) over Bowling Green
Vanderbilt (-3) over Tennessee
Washington (-7½) over Washington State
Rice (-8½) over Marshall
Tulsa (-28½) over Tulane
Michigan State (+14½) over Penn State
Oregon State (+3) over Arizona
Minnesota (+5½) over Iowa

WEEK NINE - Midweek Games

Auburn @ West Virginia
(Thursday, 6:30 pm, ESPN)
Before the season started this was one of the more intriguing games on the schedule. It looked like it would be a top 10 matchup with national title implications, but now that it’s here all this game has to offer is a couple of the most underachieving teams in the land trying to stay afloat. Auburn has suffered a particularly interesting meltdown that included Tommy Tuberville firing his offensive coordinator a couple weeks ago. West Virginia started 1-2, but quietly fought back to respectability by winning three in a row. If Auburn’s defense shows up the way it was playing earlier this season, the Tigers will have a big advantage over West Virginia’s predictable offense and a hobbled Pat White. But if Auburn gives the same effort they gave in a loss to Arkansas you can consider their season over. I’ll give Team Tuberville the benefit of the doubt one last time.
J.Pike’s Pick: Auburn 25, West Virginia 16

New Mexico @ Air Force
(Thursday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
New Mexico has seemingly been rejuvenated since the loss of their quarterback Donovan Porterie for the season. In fact, the 70-7 thumping they laid on San Diego State last week sent a message to the rest of the Mountain West not to count the Lobos out. But the Falcons consistently make opponents pay for mistakes, and that will be the difference in this game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Air Force 27, New Mexico 24

#14 Boise State @ San Jose State
(Friday, 8 pm, ESPN 2)
If Boise State is going to lose a game this season, this might be the one. San Jose State quarterback Kyle Reed is dynamic enough to take on a Boise State defense that has only allowed more than 7 points in a game once this season. Reed’s combination of accuracy in the passing game and elusiveness in the pocket will provide the biggest test to Boise’s solid secondary so far this year. They’ll have to cover longer than they’re used to and you never know when Reed will tuck it and run. Reed’s counterpart, Kellen Moore has sparked the Broncos this season whenever they needed it. He passed the first big road test of his career with flying colors when he led Boise State to a big win over Oregon in Autzen earlier this year, so I doubt the 20,000 packing Spartan Stadium will affect him much at all. Moore will lead his team to a hard fought victory as Boise State continues their hunt for another BCS Bowl.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 23, San Jose State 17

WEEK EIGHT - Preview

This week we feature exciting matchups from the MAC, Conference USA, Sun Belt, and Mountain West that all have shootout potential

Western Michigan @ Central Michigan
Is this the battle that will decide the best team in Michigan? Not quite – the Spartans at Michigan State might have something to say about it. But both of these teams are probably better than Michigan right now. Each team is led by their outstanding quarterback – Tim Hiller for Western and Dan LeFevour for Central. Hiller is a really good pocket passer, while LeFevour is more in the Tim Tebow mold. The winner of this game will end up challenging Ball State for the MAC West division crown. I’ll give the Chippewas a slight edge since they are at home, but this should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.
J.Pike’s Pick: Central Michigan 36, Western Michigan 34

Southern Miss @ Rice
This matchup between two of the better teams in Conference USA will feature an impressive amount of skill position talent. Rice boasts arguably the best quarterback in the league (Chase Clement) and one of the most underrated wide receivers in the nation (Jarrett Dillard). Clement is a small college version of Chase Daniel – he’s small, but quick and efficient. He powers a potent passing game that also features rising star tight end James Casey, who has already caught 54 passes this season. Southern Miss features the best running back in the league (Damion Fletcher), the best freshman receiver in the league (DeAndre Brown), and one of the best pass catching tight ends in the nation (Shawn Nelson). That’s a lot of athleticism going up against two teams that put defense on the backburner - a shootout is imminent. Rice has the advantage with a more experienced team so the Owls should come out on top.
J.Pike’s Pick: Rice 37, Southern Miss 31

Arkansas State @ Louisiana-Lafayette
Arkansas State has slowed down after their scorching start. After a win over Texas A&M early, they have cooled off to 4-2 with recent losses to Memphis and Southern Miss. The Ragin’ Cajuns on the other hand are just getting heated up. Their running game ranks tops in the land and running back Tyrell Fenroy (842 rushing yards) and quarterback Michael Desormeaux (708 rushing yards) are starting to really run wild. Give UL-Lafayette the edge as they are on a roll and playing in front of the home folks.
J.Pike’s Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette 34, Arkansas State 26

Air Force @ UNLV
UNLV looked like they might be a surprise team in the Mountain West after their early season win over nationally ranked Arizona State. But it turns out ASU might not be very good this year and the Mountain West is better than anybody expected (other than my partner, B.Pike – he knew what was brewing out west). Air Force is once again one of the most efficient teams in the nation. They’ll make UNLV pay for every mistake they make, and fight for yet another victory over a more talented opponent.
J.Pike’s Pick: Air Force 26, UNLV 20

WEEK SIX - Preview

Now it’s time for our weekly look at the games that are flying under the national radar. The Commander In Chief Trophy is up for grabs in the Navy/Air Force game. The winner will have a leg up since Army doesn’t look to be a real threat. Conference USA is still wide open so UTEP and Southern Miss will battle to get in the race early. There are also key games in the second tier of the Mountain West and the MAC that could make the difference in who gets a bowl berth and who stays home in the post season.

UTEP @ Southern Miss
UTEP stumbled out of the gate this season, but coming off a big 58-13 win over Central Florida they look like they have finally found themselves. Quarterback Trevor Vittatoe and running back Terrell Jackson are underrated offensive weapons in Conference USA, and Southern Miss doesn’t play the same brand of fiery defense they played under the previous coaching staff. The Eagles have offensive weapons too, but UTEP has the better quarterback. The Miners are a team gaining momentum and they’ll pull off the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: UTEP 32, Southern Miss 27

UNLV @ Colorado State
In 50 mph winds last season, these two teams paired up to produce a combined 1,049 yards of offense. Colorado State was able to capitalize on 5 UNLV turnovers to win 48-23, despite giving up 559 yards. The weather won’t be the same again this year, but the UNLV offense essentially is. Omar Clayton is back at quarterback and executing Mike Sanford’s offense better than anybody in Sanford’s four years as head coach. On the other side of the field, new CSU head coach Steve Fairchild has struggled to fully implement his new offense. In the early going the Rams are scoring only 18.8 points per game, so look for UNLV to take better care of the ball and break their five game losing streak in this series.
J.Pike’s Pick: UNLV 30, Colorado State 26

Ball State @ Toledo
Toledo might have been suffering from a little bit of the old “look-ahead” when they lost to Florida International a week ago. Ball State is on top of the MAC right now with a 5-0 record, but they will play this game without one of their top players, Dante Love. Love suffered a spine injury a couple weeks ago and may never play football again. Quarterback Nate Davis is still around though, so don’t expect too much of a drop-off offensively. Home field advantage has been important in this series over the last decade or so (the home team is 11-3-1 since ’93), and I think Toledo will show up ready to play. I like Ball State, but this game has “upset” written all over it.
J.Pike’s Pick: Toledo 36, Ball State 31

Navy @ Air Force
You might be able to count the number of pass attempts in this game on one hand. Air Force (ironically) avoids the air at all cost while taking advantage of opponents’ mistakes better than anybody else in the country. Navy plays a similar style of football, but quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada Nahasapeemapetilon and running back Shun White have more big play ability than anybody on the Air Force offense. That will be the difference in the game, so go ahead and give Navy the Commander In Chief Trophy.
J.Pike’s Pick: Navy 27, Air Force 19

Week Three Preview

Here are a few games that deserve your attention despite the fact they aren’t getting the hype of, say, Ohio State v USC this week. Each contest features non-BCS conference teams that will be in contention for bowl games and conference titles.

Central Michigan @ Ohio
Fresh off their near up set of Ohio State, the Bobcats of Ohio get to face MAC favorite Central Michigan. Central is coming off a big loss to #1 ranked Georgia, so they’ll be hungry to face someone on their own level again. Dan LeFevour will be too much for the Ohio defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Central Michigan 34, Ohio 20

Air Force @ Houston
This might be the toughest game of the week to pick. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has done extremely well so far in Colorado Springs, and he looks to have a pretty good defense in tow this season. New Houston head coach Kevin Sumlin has been up and down in his first two games at the helm, and so far he can’t count on his defense to come up with stops. This game could go either way, but I’ll go with the disciplined Falcons of Air Force in a difficult non-conference road game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Air Force 28, Houston 24

Rice @ Vanderbilt
Both teams are 2-0 and coming off big wins. Vanderbilt came up with one of the program’s biggest wins in recent memory when they knocked off South Carolina on Thursday night. Rice simply scored three touchdowns in the final 7 minutes, including a game winning interception return for a touchdown with 11 seconds left, to overcome a 15 point 4th quarter deficit. This should be one of the more entertaining games of the week.
J.Pike’s Pick: Vanderbilt 31, Rice 27

Southern Miss @ Arkansas State
Who knew this would be a game to watch? Arkansas State jumped on my radar with a win over Texas A&M in week one, and Southern Miss was able to keep it relatively close against Auburn last week. I think Arkansas State’s bubble bursts here. Southern Miss has a talented team with a very potent offense. Corey Leonard and Arkansas State might pile 80+ points on 1-AA competition, but they won’t here. Welcome to the Mid-Leagues, Red Wolves.
J.Pike’s Pick: Southern Miss 34, Arkansas State 24

Bowling Green @ Boise State
Ian Johnson, the man responsible for scoring the game winning 2-point conversion against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl two seasons ago, is still in the backfield for the Broncos. That means he’ll get the ball early and often. Bowling Green visits the Smurf Turf after a puzzling first two weeks that saw them beat Pittsburgh and then get blown out by Minnesota. Boise shouldn’t have any problems, especially running the football.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 37, Bowling Green 21