CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
Buffalo 42, Ball State 24

Congratulations to Turner Gill and Buffalo. The Bulls defense forced five turnovers and returned two fumbles for touchdowns late in the third quarter. Ball State suffered their first loss of the season thanks in large part to the Buffalo pass/catch duo of quarterback Drew Willy and wide receiver Naaman "The President" Roosevelt. I hope all the schools with head coaching vacancies took note: Turner Gill deserves a good job in a BCS conference. If Syracuse isn't falling all over themselves to get to Gill, they don't deserve to win another game ever.

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP
East Carolina (8-4) at Tulsa (10-2)
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN 2)

East Carolina started the season with a bang, earning victories over preseason top 25 teams Virginia Tech and West Virginia. But injuries began to take their toll over the course of the season (not to mention an ill-advised quarterback switch in mid-season that has since been rectified), and the Pirates managed to compile four losses. Tulsa isn't nearly as good as their statistics indicate (49 points and 579 yards per game), as evidenced by consecutive losses to Arkansas and Houston in early November by a combined score of 100-53. Todd Graham's Golden Hurrican are still potent offensively, though, and have the advantage of playing the title game on their home field. Quarterback David Johnson and receiver Brennan Marrion will hook up for at least two long touchdowns today.
J.Pike's Pick: Tulsa 42, East Carolina 27

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP
Boston College (9-3) vs Virginia Tech (8-4)
@ Tampa, FL
(Saturday, noon, ABC)

Well well well, whaddya know. After all the chaos and upsets and parity in the ACC this year, BC and Virginia Tech, the same two teams that played for the title last year, will meet in a rematch. All the so-called "experts" picked Boston College to finish in the bottom two of the Coastal Division because of the loss of Matt Ryan. But if you were paying attention to Pikes Picks [LINK], you would have known better. Much like in 2007, Boston College won the regular season matchup, but the Hokies have the advantage here. BC quarterback Chris Crane broke his collarbone two weeks ago, and the offense is limited without him. Dominique Davis will be a fine quarterback in the future, but he's still young and doesn't have the same feel for the offense Crane did. I love the Boston College defense, and Mark Herzlich in particular. But Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor is arguably the most elusive quarterback in the nation. He'll be able to pick up first downs off scrambles and keep the chains moving in what should be a low scoring affair.
J.Pike's Pick: Virginia Tech 14, Boston College 10

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
Alabama (12-0) vs Florida (11-1)
@ Atlanta, GA
(Saturday, 3 pm, CBS)

This is the big one. The winner here probably gets a shot to play for the national championship. Nick Saban has rejeuvinated Roll Tide more quickly than anybody expected. How he got a team that lost to Louisiana-Monroe last last year to play as well as they have this year is a coaching feat that is unmatched in 2008. However, Bama must face their stiffest challenge of the season in Urban Meyer's Florida Gators. The Gators bring a ton of speed to the Georgia Dome, probably as much collective speed that turf has ever hosted. Alabama has become the new Nebraska in that they are easily the most physical team in the nation. I think their physical nature will neutralize Florida's team speed and allow the Tide to control the trenches on both sides of the ball. Florida is a heavy favorite in Las Vegas, but that's because even the gamblers have forgotten that football is ultimately won in the trenches.
J.Pike's Picks: Alabama 30, Florida 17

WEEK TWELVE - Preview

Sure, it’s hard to find games under the national radar in a week where seemingly every game is flying under the radar. There isn’t a single Top 25 matchup on the schedule, but I’ll give you three non-BCS conference games that will have an impact on the bowl season.

East Carolina (6-3) at Southern Miss (4-6)
(Saturday, 2 pm)
With new head coach Larry Fedora, you can expect Southern Miss to be a point scoring machine in a couple years. Fedora has made progress in his first season, and has some impressive weapons at his disposal on offense (RB Damion Fletcher, TE Shawn Nelson, WR DeAndre Brown). East Carolina started off the 2008 season with a bang, upsetting Virginia Tech and West Virginia on consecutive weekends. But since then a couple key injuries and a quarterback rotation derailed the season. ECU has picked up the pace with three straight wins, and Patrick Pinkney appears to have the quarterback job all to himself again. That’s all I need to know to give Skip Holtz’s veteran squad the advantage.
J.Pike’s Pick: East Carolina 24, Southern Miss 17

San Jose State (6-4) at Nevada (5-4)
(Saturday, 3 pm)
Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is really starting to come into his own. The sophomore kept Fresno State off balance all game long last Thursday night en route to an easy Wolfpack victory. Bruising Vai Taua is also emerging as one of the most productive running backs in the WAC. His impressive season total of 1,159 yards rushing this year includes the 263 yards he went for against Fresno State last week. San Jose State on the other hand is in a slump, losing two of their last three. Spartan quarterback Kyle Reed looked really good early in the season, but like the rest of the team, his play has declined of late. With home field advantage, Nevada will continue their late season surge with another impressive win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Nevada 26, San Jose State 17

Tulsa (8-1) at Houston (5-4)
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
Neither one of these teams cares much about playing defense (Tulsa allows 388.6 yards per game; Houston gives up 385.2). However both are accomplished offensively, as they combine to score an average of 89.8 points per game, so this one has the look of a shootout. New Houston head coach Kevin Sumlin looks to have the Cougars on the right track, and with home field advantage they are more than capable of handing Tulsa their second loss in as many games. But the Golden Hurrican used their off week to stew over the Arkansas loss and will be ready to play. I expect senior quarterback David Johnson to lead a more complete Tulsa team to a high scoring win over a still-growing Houston team.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 54, Houston 44

WEEK TEN - J&BP Top 25 Preview

#1 Texas @ #8 Texas Tech

(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
Since Texas Tech’s last win in this series in 2002, Texas has won by an average score of 48 to 30. These games haven’t been as close as you might think from all the “it’s always tough up there in Lubbock” talk. It’s just Drunk Vince Gill’s clownish offense clouding your memory. Texas is on a roll and the talk of a Texas Tech upset this weekend is just the fuel they need to take the field with a chip on their shoulder in Lubbock. On the field the Longhorns will get it done by actually playing a little defense. Much like the game plan Will Muschamp put together to stifle Missouri’s potent offense, he’ll turn his imposing D-Line loose, send blitzers after Graham Harrell, and hit the quarterback repeatedly until Tech is forced to narrow those wide offensive line splits they are known for. Don’t think for a second Tech’s line will be able to handle Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller – nobody has contained those two all season. The Red Raiders have run the ball a little bit more this year, and that is the X-Factor here. But I haven’t seen enough from Leach’s track record to indicate he’ll actually stick with the run in a big game. Look for Texas to win easily in a relatively low scoring game. Well, low scoring compared to what some are expecting anyway.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 42, Texas Tech 28

Arkansas State @ #2 Alabama
(Saturday, 2 pm, ESPN360.com)
Bama had better be careful here. And no, I’m not joking. Arkansas State has a respectable 4-3 record that includes a win over Texas A&M. Quarterback Corey Leonard and running backs Reggie Arnold and Derek Lawson form an unsung trio in the backfield – all three could make a name for themselves with big games against Alabama. Let’s also not forget this is the same Crimson Tide team that lost a game to Louisiana-Monroe late last season. Nick Saban has an extremely physical football team, but he also has an offense that is limited, especially if you can manage to slow down Glen Coffee and the running game. Arkansas State will show up ready to play, and they WILL give Alabama a game. How long will the Red Wolves hang in there? We’ll find out Saturday.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 20, Arkansas State 17

#3 Penn State is IDLE

#7 Florida vs #4 Georgia (@ Jacksonville, FL)
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
There’s no shortage of motivation in this rivalry. By now I’m sure everyone has re-lived the moment last year when the entire Georgia team ran on the field to celebrate after scoring their first touchdown. I know Urban Meyer and the Florida Gators remember it, so this might be one of those games where the team that can manage their emotions the best and make fewer stupid mistakes in the heat of battle will win. Georgia has committed their fair share of stupid penalties this year, and that could be what does them in if they lose. Florida is known for their speed and explosive offense, and a lot of prognosticators are expecting the Gators to run Georgia off the field in a blowout. But did you know Georgia is actually averaging 20 more yards per game offensively than Florida this year? Keep in mind that is against a much more challenging schedule too. Meyer’s offense seems to be based more around speed than actual Xs & Os. Georgia’s defense can match Florida’s speed, so will Meyer be able to counter the attacking Bulldog defense with a play more creative than “Hey Tim Tebow, fake like you are going to run then throw a jump pass to the tight end”? We’ll see. Georgia also has not-so-secret weapon Knowshon Moreno in the backfield. The sophomore tailback is easily one of the best players in the nation and he runs with a determination that you have to see to fully appreciate him. He’ll be the key to getting Georgia off to a fast start, and he’ll poke and prod the Florida defenders until they start committing stupid penalties. Georgia gets back in the national title discussion with an impressive win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 32, Florida 20

Nebraska @ #5 Oklahoma
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN)
With Bo Pelini in the fold this rivalry will eventually pick up steam again. The problem is, with the Big XII scheduling the way it is, it will never be the event it once was. Nebraska will play Oklahoma this year and next year during the rebuilding process, but the two won’t be scheduled to play in the regular season in 2010 or 2011. So Pelini will have to squeeze some magic out of this series with an inferior roster for the next two years. Don’t think he can’t do it either. Oklahoma is talented, and I’m sure Sam Bradford is licking his chops to go up against one of the more error-prone secondaries in the nation, but the Sooners are prone to mental breakdowns defensively too. They are also gaining a reputation for not showing up in big games late in the season. Bradford might have his way with the secondary early, but I expect Nebraska to adjust and scratch and claw their way into making this a game in the second half.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma 34, Nebraska 21

Washington @ #6 USC
(Saturday, 5:30 pm, FSN)
Here’s another opportunity for USC to put up an impressive score against a bad team. All the national pundits will see the big score and gush about how great the Trojans are and how they are “the most dangerous team in the nation right now.” Go ahead and keep inflating their egos – I can’t wait to see them lose to Stanford again.
J.Pike’s Pick: USC 43, Washington 10

#9 Utah @ New Mexico
(Saturday, 8:30 pm, The Mtn.)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah 23

Iowa State @ #10 Oklahoma State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
How will the Cowboys respond to the loss to Texas? Some might say the strong showing against the #1 team in the country gave them confidence, that it confirmed their belief they belong in the top ten. But don’t forget the possibility that the Cowboys put their season on the line in that game and got their hearts ripped out with a close loss. Sometimes that’s the recipe for a huge letdown the following week. Judging by the way Oklahoma State handled their big win over Missouri (no big celebration, they simply walked off the field like a team that just did what they were supposed to do), I think Mike Gundy has his team on an even keel - they won’t get too ‘down’ because they never got too ‘up’. So I expect Kendall Hunter and Brandon Pettigrew to get back to rolling up points against the struggling Cyclones.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma State 40, Iowa State 17

#11 Boise State @ New Mexico State
(Saturday, 6 pm, ESPN360.com)
Almost four years ago New Mexico State fired their successful head coach Tony Samuel so they could bring in that clown Hal Mumme. Well, a mere 11 wins later that move is looking even more ridiculous than it looked at the time. The Aggies are coming off a loss to lifeless Idaho for goodness sake! I can only imagine how easily Boise State will roll over Mumme and his towel in Las Cruces this weekend.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 34, New Mexico State 13

#12 Ohio State is IDLE

#13 TCU @ UNLV
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 33, UNLV 16

#14 Tulsa @ Arkansas
(Saturday, 1 pm, ESPN360.com)
This won’t be a pretty football game. Gus Malzahn’s Tulsa offense is averaging 605.6 yards and 55.6 points per game this year. Malzahn happens to be the former offensive coordinator at Arkansas and he played a role in the firestorm that eventually led to the ousting of Houston Nutt. He’ll be looking to show the fans in Fayetteville what his offense can do. But Arkansas still has SEC athletes and with home field advantage and running back Michael Smith they are capable of pulling the upset. I’m not sure the Hog defense, which appears to be frightened by the prospect of tackling at times, is up to the challenge of slowing down the Golden Hurricane attack.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 38, Arkansas 34

#15 Missouri @ Baylor
(Saturday, 2 pm)
I like the job Art Briles has done at Baylor so far. He has the Bears playing with more fire than I have seen out of that program in quite a while. A big reason for that has been the play of their hugely talented quarterback Robert Griffin. With Griffin at the helm, I guarantee you Baylor makes a bowl game in the near future. But this year is year one on the learning curve. Missouri and Chase Daniel are way ahead of that, and they won’t hesitate to run it up on the upstart Bears. Jeremy Maclin flat out has too much speed to not reach the end zone at least three times on Saturday.
J.Pike’s Pick: Missouri 51, Baylor 21

Wisconsin @ #16 Michigan State
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
The season is quickly getting away from Wisconsin. Not only are the Badgers struggling to get decent play out of the quarterback spot, they just lost their best offensive weapon, tight end Travis Beckum, for the season thanks to a knee injury. And now they have to travel to face one of the best running backs in the nation. Michigan State’s Javon Ringer is the definition of a workhorse: he averages over 33 carries per game and has piled up 1,373 yards and 16 touchdowns so far this season. Even if Wisconsin manages to slow him down, I’m not sure they’ll be able to put many points on the board.
J.Pike’s Pick: Michigan State 23, Wisconsin 17

#17 Florida State @ Georgia Tech
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN)
Florida State has rallied around freshman quarterback Christian Ponder and quietly climbed to a 6-1 record. I’m not sure about Ponder though. He’s the kind of quarterback that makes stupid plays for the majority of the game and then stumbles his way into a big play in a key situation. I’m not sure how much of it is skill and how much of it is luck, but my impression from watching him is that these clutch plays aren’t going to be there for him against better competition. Georgia Tech has a pretty good defense and they are led up front by end Michael Johnson and tackle Vance Walker. Those two will make it difficult for Ponder to get in a rhythm. Offensively, Georgia Tech will lull a talented Seminole defense to sleep with their triple option, and eventually bust a long run late to set up the game winning score.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia Tech 18, Florida State 16

Tulane @ #18 LSU
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN360.com)
It’s time for the annual battle for Louisiana. It’s also time for LSU to take out some frustrations after giving up 50 points for the second time this season a week ago.
J.Pike’s Pick: LSU 34, Tulane 7

Northwestern @ #19 Minnesota
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN 2)
A season that started out so promising for Northwestern is now falling apart. The Wildcats lost two of their last three games, and must now face top 25 teams Minnesota and Ohio State. Injuries have been the main factor in the sudden dropoff, with quarterback C.J. Bacher and running back Tyrell Sutton each suffering season ending injuries in October. If you tune in to this game, check out Minnesota’s speedy freshman wideout Brandon Green. He broke out with 5 catches for 100 yards a week ago, and showed some excellent speed on a 71-yard reception. He could be a big time player in the Big Ten in the near future.
J.Pike’s Pick: Minnesota 23, Northwestern 16

#20 BYU @ Colorado State
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 34, Colorado State 24

#21 North Carolina is IDLE

#22 Ball State is IDLE

#23 Oregon @ California
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
Jeff Tedford is his own worst enemy. After a strong start to the season with Kevin Riley at quarterback, Tedford decided to give Nate Life-long Spare the job. Once again, Longshore proved he has no mettle and can’t hold up under pressure. His awful play was instrumental in the Bears getting destroyed by Arizona. Tedford went back to Riley at QB and the team responded with an easy win over UCLA. With Riley in the fold, Cal has an excellent shot to beat Oregon, whose pass defense is surprisingly shoddy. This game also features the three best running backs in the Pac-10. Sorry USC – five stars next to your name in high school doesn’t make you a good college running back. Oregon’s LeGarrette Blount has been pounding opponents this season with his physical running style (12 tds), and Jeremiah Johnson has one of the best stiff arms you’ll find. But Cal’s Jahvid Best will be the difference maker. His speed and agility is off the charts, and he’s finally healthy again.
J.Pike’s Pick: California 30, Oregon 28

#24 Maryland is IDLE

Kansas State @ #25 Kansas
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
Here’s a game with shootout potential. Both teams feature potent passing attacks: Kansas quarterback Todd Reesing has Dezmon Briscoe (760 yards, 9 td) and Kerry Meier (63 receptions, 4 td) at his disposal, and Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman likes to find speedy JC transfer Brandon Banks (813 yards, 20.8 yards per reception). Additionally, both defenses were burned repeatedly through the air a week ago: Kansas State gave up 58 points to Oklahoma and Kansas gave up 63 to Texas Tech. Mark Mangino gets the best of Ron Prince in the coaching matchup though.
J.Pike’s Pick: Kansas 38, Kansas State 32

WEEK NINE - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

#11 Texas Tech at #16 Kansas
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
Texas Tech hasn’t played anybody up to this point, and they have been sloppy since entering Big XII play. Kansas is just the kind of team that can knock off the Red Raiders. Not only is Todd Reesing and his excellent (now healthy) receiving corps capable of matching Tech point-for-point, they are also a smart team that will take advantage of all of Mike Leach’s coaching mistakes. The Kansas defense will hold the Red Raiders to their lowest point total and knock them from the ranks of the unbeaten.
J.Pike’s Pick: Kansas 36, Texas Tech 27

Wyoming at #13 TCU
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
The Horned Frog defense should have no problems holding Wyoming under 10 points – four other defenses have done it already this year and TCU might be the best defense the Cowboys have played. Jeremy Kerley is one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the Mountain west, but TCU won’t even need him to win this one. How did Joe Glenn’s coaching stock fall so far so fast?
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 35, Wyoming 3

Colorado at #15 Missouri
(Saturday, 5:30 pm, FSN)
Don’t make the mistake of assuming Missouri will bounce right back from their two-game losing streak and destroy Colorado. The Buffaloes are a smart team with some good young players and they are definitely capable of compounding Gary Pinkel’s troubles. But Colorado’s problem is that they often start games aggressively and grab early leads, but then go into safe mode. Missouri will take advantage of that habit and pull out of their nose dive with a win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Missouri 38, Colorado 24

Central Florida at #17 Tulsa
(Sunday, 7 pm, ESPN)
Tulsa boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, but they’ll be facing one of the best defenses in Conference USA here. UCF is still struggling offensively due to a quarterback controversy, but honestly, neither Michael Greco nor freshman Rob Calabrese could really make a difference against Tulsa. David Johnson-to-Brennan Marion will provide the fireworks as they lead the Golden Hurricane to 8-0.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 41, Central Florida 20

UNLV at #18 BYU
(Saturday, 1 pm, The Mtn.)
How will BYU respond coming off their first loss of the season? UNLV has faded of late, but Frank Summers is still capable of chewing up yards and clock with his running. That means BYU can’t be feeling too sorry for themselves or they could be looking at a second consecutive loss. I expect this one to be a dogfight throughout, but in the end Max Hall will find a way to get the win.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 28, UNLV 21

#19 Boston College at North Carolina
(Saturday, 11 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
BC quarterback Chris Crane is finally starting to play well. He’s not throwing nearly as many terrible interceptions as he did in the early part of the year, which is allowing him to utilize his strong arm more effectively. The running of freshman Montel Harris has also been a pleasant surprise as he balances out the offense by chipping in an average of 88 yards the last four games. North Carolina lost quarterback T.J. Yates to injury four weeks ago and has been hanging on for dear life ever since. The Tar Heels have a ton of talent, but it’s looking more and more like 2009 will be the year it all comes together. In the mean time, Mark Herzlich and the BC defense will be enough to slow down Carolina’s incocnsistent offense and get the Eagles to 6-1.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boston College 27, North Carolina 17

Virginia at #20 Georgia Tech
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ESPN U)
Virginia is on a roll. After sputtering to a 1-3 start, the Wahoos are now on a three game winning streak that included victories over Maryland, East Carolina, and North Carolina – all respectable foes. Marc Verica has finally settled in as the quarterback after a revolving door at the position in the early part of the year, but nothing has helped the team more than the healthy return of running back Cedric Peerman. Peerman has invigorated the offense by forcing defenses to worry about the run again instead of pinning their ears back and teeing off on Verica. But Virginia’s winning streak could be in jeopardy against Georgia Tech. Josh Nesbitt is back in the lineup so the triple option offense is once again firing on all cylinders. Paul Johnson’s troops will find a way – as they always seem to do – to douse the flames of a hot Virginia team and continue their climb up the rankings.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia 19

#21 South Florida at Louisville
(Saturday, 2:30 pm)
This matchup pits a USF team that appears to have peaked and is now just treading water against an up-and-coming Louisville team that doesn’t yet have the horses to consistently win games like this – yet. Be patient Louisville fans. If you give Steve Kragthorpe just one more year I guarantee you’ll see Louisville take a big step up in the Big East.
J.Pike’s Pick: South Florida 30, Louisville 24

Rutgers at #22 Pittsburgh
(Saturday, 2:30 pm)
After falling to Bowling Green out of the gate it looked like Pittsburgh was on their way to yet another disappointment-filled season. But since that loss Pitt has won five straight and grabbed an early lead in the Big East race thanks to their victory over South Florida. Now a disappointing Rutgers team comes to town with more talent than their 2-5 record indicates. This is exactly the kind of game Pitt would have blown a year ago, but Rutgers is in a more giving mood this year. The Scarlet Knights will give this game away just as they have been giving games away all year.
J.Pike’s Pick: Pittsburgh 23, Rutgers 18

#23 Virginia Tech at Florida State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
When was the last time Florida State was 5-1 and unranked? That fact demonstrates just how far the Seminoles have fallen from grace recently. Bobby Bowden is but a figurehead now who doesn’t even seem to pretend to coach anymore. On the other sideline, Frank Beamer has a young team and is struggling with his traditionally strong special teams. But the Hokies have enough on defense to rattle Christian Ponder into turnovers. Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor doesn’t get rattled because it’s a rare feet when a defender actually catches him. Hokies win in a defensive struggle.
J.Pike’s Pick: Virginia Tech 18, Florida State 16

#24 Minnesota at Purdue
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN Classic)
This game will go one of two directions: either Purdue will come together as a team and start playing up to their talent level, or they’ll completely fall apart and throw in the towel for the season. There has been a lot of talking in the press from Kory Sheets and even head coach Joe Tiller about the sub-par play of Curtis Painter so far. Both happen to be right – especially Sheets, who needs to get the ball more for the Purdue offense to be effective. Minnesota has been a pleasant surprise so far this season, but I still think it all depends on which Purdue shows up. If Purdue can Boiler Up, they’ll win. Despite all the bickering and in-fighting, I think that’s exactly what will happen.
J.Pike’s Pick: Purdue 30, Minnesota 27

#25 Michigan State at Michigan
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
Look out Spartans. I know you think this is the year you finally exert your dominance over the state of Michigan football, but think again. Even with the coaching change, Michigan still has the edge in this game. In big games like this, the Michigan State offense can be rather one dimensional. Yeah, Javon Ringer is an excellent one dimension to have, but I think the Michigan defense will more than be up to the challenge of limiting MSU’s scoring opportunities. On the other side of the ball, Michigan quarterback Steven Threet has improved his accuracy enough this year to give the spread offense some balance. Threet will hit enough timely passes to keep drives alive and give Michigan an upset win over their in-state rivals.
J.Pike’s Pick: Michigan 22, Michigan State 20

National Championship Race - The Undefeated

Now that we have whittled the number of unbeatens down to single digits, it’s time for Pikes Picks to take a look at the national title race. In this installment I will take a look at the nine remaining undefeated teams, break down each of their remaining schedules, and give you my pick on which teams will finish undefeated and which teams will play in the BCS National Title Game.

BALL STATE (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, @Miami(OH), @Central Michigan, Western Michigan, MAC Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 40%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 10%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Ball State is led by their outstanding quarterback Nate Davis. Unfortunately, their other Faulk Trophy candidate, wide receiver Dante Love, suffered a spine injury earlier this season that will likely end his football career. The Cardinals have played well since losing Love, but will they be able to go to Mount Pleasant, Michigan in late November and knock off MAC stalwart Central Michigan? I’m not sure they can.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, no BCS bowl

TULSA (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: UCF, @Arkansas, @Houston, Tulane, @Marshall, Conference USA Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 60%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 25%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Todd Graham and Gus Malzahn have the Golden Hurricane offense tearing through opposing defenses like, well, a Golden Hurricane. They are averaging 56.6 points per game and put up 77 on UTEP last Saturday! Senior quarterback David Johnson is in his first year starting, but has already displayed big play ability thanks to his great touch on the deep throws. The defense hasn’t really needed to do much this year, so there are still question marks on that side of the ball that need to be answered on back to back road trips to Arkansas and Houston if Tulsa is to remain undefeated.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-1, Conference USA champs, no BCS bowl

BOISE STATE (6-0)
Remaining Schedule: @San Jose State, @New Mexico State, Utah State, @Idaho, @Nevada, Fresno State
Chance of going undefeated: 80%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 70%
Chance of playing for the national title: 2%
Boise State is surprisingly led by a freshman quarterback and a stout defense. Defense is definitely not the first thing that comes to mind when discussing the Broncos, but this unit is pretty good. Only one team has managed to top 7 points against Boise so far and that was Oregon - who only had 13 points entering the fourth quarter. The Boise State secondary is playing extremely well so far, picking off 11 passes and limiting opponents to below 50% completions. But the gutsy play of freshman quarterback Kellen Moore is the reason the Broncos will most likely run the table.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-0, WAC champs, BCS Bowl

TEXAS TECH (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, @Oklahoma, Baylor, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 0%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 5%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Texas Tech made it to 7-0 by playing a schedule that consisted of two Division 1-AA opponents and exactly zero teams ranked anywhere near the top 25. The past two weeks the Red Raiders have struggled against the mediocre teams in the Big XII, so there is a good chance they could lose each of the next four games against the better teams in the conference. At least head coach Mike Leach will still have his offensive stats to fall back on when he’s 8-4 again.
J.Pike’s Pick: 9-3, no BCS bowl

UTAH (8-0)
Remaining Schedule: @New Mexico, TCU, @San Diego State, BYU
Chance of going undefeated: 55%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 55%
Chance of playing for the national title: 5%
Don’t discount the Mountain West Conference because Utah is for real. The Utes have stormed out to an 8-0 start thanks to an aggressive defense and Faulk Trophy favorite QB Brian Johnson. The meat of the schedule remains with nationally ranked TCU and BYU. Both games are at home, but both teams will present legitimate challenges in completely different ways. If Utah makes it through the rest of the season undefeated, they should easily grab their second ever BCS Bowl berth.
J.Pike’s Pick: 11-1, Utes will be more deserving of a BCS bowl bid than Boise State, but won’t get one

OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Texas, Iowa State, @Texas Tech, @Colorado, Oklahoma, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 10%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 15%
Chance of playing for the national title: 5%
We’ll find out just how for real the Cowboys are this weekend when they travel to Austin to face #1 ranked Texas. Mike Gundy and the Pokes have been one of the biggest surprises of 2008 not because of their prolific, balanced offense, but because of their surprising improvement on defense. Again, we’ll find out how much better they are on defense this weekend. Since Gundy took over the play calling again (former OC Larry Fedora took the head coaching job at Southern Miss in the offseason), the offense has gotten more physical thanks to the running of Kendall Hunter. With Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma left on the schedule though, chances are slim they make it through unscathed.
J.Pike’s Pick: 9-3, no BCS bowl

ALABAMA (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Tennessee, Arkansas State, @LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, SEC Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 50%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 90%
Chance of playing for the national title: 45%
If there’s one word you could use to describe Alabama, it’s “physical”. The Crimson Tide are looking to beat up every last team on their schedule and anybody who doubts them. That approach will win them a lot of games, but the lack of consistency on offense will make it difficult to run through the SEC undefeated.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-1, BCS bowl

PENN STATE (8-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Ohio State, @Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State
Chance of going undefeated: 80%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 95%
Chance of playing for the national title: 75%
If you haven’t had the chance to watch this Penn State team yet, make sure and tune in Saturday night when the Nittany Lions invade the Horseshoe. Joe Paterno’s squad is probably the most well-rounded team in the nation. Quarterback Darrell Clark steadies a speedy offense that can run between the tackles with the immensely underrated Evan Royster, or pick you apart in the passing game with three senior wide receivers. Aaron Maybin (10 sacks) and the defensive line is flat out dominating right now, which has allowed the ballhawking secondary to roam free and intercept 11 passes. Don’t discount the senior leadership on this team. Playing in the Big Ten means they have the best shot at going undefeated, and therefore playing in the BCS Championship Game.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-0, National Title game

TEXAS (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: Oklahoma State, @Texas Tech, Baylor, @Kansas, Texas A&M, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 70%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 98%
Chance of playing for the national title: 70%
If defense wins championships, the Longhorns are definitely in the discussion. Will Muschamp has his troops playing as aggressively as anybody, and when you have linemen that are as physically dominant as Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller it makes everybody look good. But the reason this team is dangerous is their hunger to win. When Colt McCoy takes the Sports Illustrated with his image on the cover and throws it in the trash before the Missouri game, you know this is a special team. Difficult games against Oklahoma State and Kansas loom large, but this Texas teams seems to be up to any task.
J.Pike’s Pick: 13-0, Big XII Champs, National Title game

WEEK EIGHT - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

#11 Texas Tech at Texas A&M
(Saturday, 11 am, FSN)
Texas Tech isn’t a top ten team. Half the teams in Division 1-A could go undefeated against the schedule the Red Raiders have played so far. A&M doesn’t look like they’ll be much of a test either. While Mike Sherman has some quality skill players (Mike Goodson and Jerrod Johnson), there are huge holes on the O-Line and on defense. Give him some time and he’ll win games like this, but it won’t happen this year.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas Tech 52, Texas A&M 36

#12 LSU at South Carolina
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN)
The Gamecocks have been so inconsistent this season it’s hard to pick them against a talented LSU team coming off a loss. I like the South Carolina defense, but you never know what you’re going to get out of their offense. Stephen Garcia is finally going to get the start after residing in the doghouse for off-field incidents his first year and a half on campus. If he plays up to his hype, South Carolina will have a good chance to win this game. But again, you never know what you’re going to get. I think LSU’s advantage in the trenches will carry them to a sloppy, low scoring win.
J.Pike’s Pick: LSU 21, South Carolina 17

Colorado State at #13 Utah
(Saturday, 1 pm, The Mtn.)
Brian Johnson will continue to make his case for the Faulk Trophy by piling up numbers against the Rams of Colorado State. The Utes roll to 8-0 as they take over for BYU as the prime BCS-buster candidate.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 34, Colorado State 17

Baylor at #15 Oklahoma State
(Saturday, 2 pm)
Coming off their biggest win in recent memory, it’s tempting to think the Oklahoma State Cowboys are prime upset targets – especially with upstart Baylor and their phenom quarterback Robert Griffin coming to town. But the thing that impressed me the most about Okie State’s win over Missouri last week was how level-headed the Pokes were. They went into the game expecting to win and that’s exactly what they did. That leads me to believe they won’t get carried away by the emotions that could lead to a flat performance this week. It will be a closer game than it looks on paper, but the focused Cowboys will stay unbeaten.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma State 34, Baylor 24

#18 Virginia Tech at Boston College
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN 2)
Two of the best defenses in the ACC will take the field Saturday night in the third battle between these two teams in the last calendar year. Last season Va Poly avenged an early season choke job by beating the Eagles in the ACC title game, stealing a BCS berth in the process. This year both teams have vastly different rosters, but I think Virginia Tech has taken a bit more of a step back. BC quarterback Chris Crane got off to a terrible start this season, but he has really come into his own lately thanks to Josh Haden and the surprisingly solid running game. On the other side of the ball, Hokie quarterback Tyrod Taylor and running back Darren Evans are future stars, but this year, against Mark Herzlich and the imposing BC defense, I’m not sure they’ll be able to score enough points to win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boston College 26, Virginia Tech 22

#19 North Carolina at Virginia
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN2)
Be careful Tar Heels. Virginia is one of the hottest teams in the ACC right now, and they are facing North Carolina at the right time. Not only is UNC playing without starting quarterback T.J. Yates right now due to an ankle injury, they also received word earlier this week that their playmaking wide receiver/punt returner Brandon Tate will be out for the rest of the season after tearing up his knee in the first quarter against Notre Dame. But at the end of the day the UNC defense will make the stops necessary to cool the Wahoos off.
J.Pike’s Pick: North Carolina 24, Virginia 13

UTEP at #20 Tulsa
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
Tulsa is racking up points at an alarming rate in Todd Graham’s offensive scheme. It doesn’t seem to matter who the quarterback is, but it helps when he’s as efficient as senior David Johnson has been. On the flip side, UTEP is starting to play good football now too. Sophomore Trinity HS alum [LINK] Trevor Vittatoe is coming into his own and running back Terrell Jackson is explosive. But can the Miners keep up with the high octane Golden Hurricane? On the road I don’t think they can.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 48, UTEP 33

#22 California at Arizona
(Saturday, 9 pm, FCS-Pacific)
Apparently Nate Longspare is back in at the starting quarterback for Cal. That’s not a good thing. The young Arizona defense will force him into turnovers by pressuring him from the get go. That will give Willie Tuitama and the offense great field position throughout the game so that the Wildcats can pull the mild upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: Arizona 31, California 27

#23 Georgia Tech at Clemson
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
The Tommy Bowden era at Clemson is now officially over, but will that automatically translate into wins? The talent on the Clemson sideline is more impressive than anywhere else in the ACC, but Georgia Tech under new head coach Paul Johnson is the kind of team that neutralizes talent advantages as well as anybody. Josh Nesbitt is coming back from his injury to lead the triple option offense so you can expect the Bees to lull Clemson to sleep and bust a big run late. Clemson is going to start Willy “Candy” Korn just in time for Halloween. Michael Johnson and the Ramblin’ Wreck defense are licking their chops, ready to spook the freshman early and often as they shut down an inefficient Clemson offense that just fired its coordinator.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia Tech 17, Clemson 13

#24 Oregon is idle

#25 Minnesota is idle

WEEK SEVEN - Locks

Syracuse (+23½) over West Virginia
Syracuse is bad, but West Virginia hasn’t shown the ability to beat anybody by more than three touchdowns this year. With Pat White suffering through nagging injuries, I don’t expect that pattern to change.

Utah (-23) over Wyoming
Utah is playing good football right now and Wyoming simply is not. The Cowboys aren’t even averaging double digits in points this season (by far the worst in the nation), so a shutout by the strong Utah defense is more than possible – it’s probable. Utah quarterback Brian Johnson can easily manufacture at least 30 against this group.

Colorado State (+15½) over TCU
This is the kind of game that seems to trip up TCU just about every year. The Horned Frogs are favored on the road against a team with a new coach that is improving every week. Not only do I think Colorado State covers this large spread, I think they have an excellent shot at winning outright.

Louisiana-Lafayette (-21) over North Texas High
If I actually put money on these bets, I would have gotten rich betting against North Texas High School this season. Louisiana-Lafayette has the nation’s top rushing offense and Tyrell Fenroy nearly topped the 300-yard mark a week ago against Louisiana-Monroe! Look for the Ragin’ Cajuns to to approach 500 yards rushing and completely control the clock in this game.

Tulsa (-25) over SMU
This seems to be the week where I capitalize on the big spreads. Tulsa is tops in the nation averaging 56.4 points per game. June Jones is struggling to get his passing attack going as the Mustangs sit on a 1-5 record averaging only 22 points per game. Tulsa wins big.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Texas (+7) over Oklahoma
Illinois (-12½) over Minnesota
Arizona State (+28) over USC
Buffalo (-1) over Western Michigan
Miami (-16½) over Central Florida
Arizona (-6½) over Stanford
Iowa State (+4½) over Baylor
San Jose State (-14) over Utah State
Missouri (-14) over Oklahoma State
UTEP (-4) over Tulane

WEEK SIX - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

#11 Auburn at #17 Vanderbilt
(Saturday, 5 pm, ESPN)
Vandy quarterback Chris Nickson facing the intimidating Auburn defense should be a fun matchup to watch. Nickson is one of the most dynamic players in the SEC and won’t back down from anybody. Auburn’s defense is flat out one of the best in the nation. There hasn’t been anybody the defensive line couldn’t pressure, and the cornerbacks should easily blanket Vandy’s receivers. On the other side of the ball though Auburn hasn’t been able to score on anybody this year with Tony Franklin’s new spread offense. Ben Tate is woefully misused and quarterback Chris Todd isn’t producing. Todd will struggle again because, surprisingly, the Commodores have one of the better secondaries in the conference. The wild card here will be whether Franklin gives Kodi Burns a shot at quarterback. I don’t have any idea why Burns has been riding the bench all season while Todd struggles. If Burns plays, Auburn wins. If he doesn’t, Vandy wins. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to the Auburn coaching staff.
J.Pike’s Pick: Auburn 23, Vanderbilt 17

#14 Florida at Arkansas
(Saturday, 11:30 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
This one could get ugly. Not only will Florida be looking to redeem themselves after losing AT HOME to Ole Miss a week ago (who’s coaching at Ole Miss now? Hmm…), this also should be the perfect opportunity for Urban Meyer to run up the score as he’s known to do from time to time. Arkansas is arguably the worst team in the SEC because they decided to run off Houston Nutt in favor of Bobby Petrino. I hope you enjoy the cellar, Hog fans.
J.Pike’s Pick: Florida 48, Arkansas 10

#15 Texas Tech at Kansas State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
I definitely don’t have a rooting interest in this game. In fact, if there was a way both teams could lose I would be rooting for that. But unfortunately one of these ugly football teams has to come away with a win in this contest. Kansas State is coming off back to back games in which they gave up over 300 yards rushing to average football teams (Louisville and Louisiana-Lafayette). Mike Leach isn’t smart enough to take advantage of the Wildcats deficiencies against the run, but Michael Crabtree and company will take advantage of K-State’s poor tackling by piling up huge YAC numbers. This will probably be a shootout, but Texas Tech is more stable at this point in the season.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas Tech 51, Kansas State 37

#16 Kansas at Iowa State
(Saturday, 11:30 am, VERSUS)
Iowa State is a sneaky team that will upset somebody in the Big XII this year, but I don’t think it will be Kansas. Mark Mangino’s squad is too fundamentally sound to give the game away, and that’s exactly what would have to happen. Todd Reesing and the offense might not look as sharp as they did in their non-conference schedule, but they’ll be good enough to keep the feisty Cyclones at arm’s length.
J.Pike’s Pick: Kansas 27, Iowa State13

Westsern Kentucky at #19 Virginia Tech
(Saturday, 12:30 pm)
Taking the redshirt off Tyrod Taylor is the best decision Frank Beamer has made all season. So good in fact that it almost makes up for his decision to put the redshirt on him in the first place. With Taylor at quarterback the Hokies are 4-0; without him they are 0-1. VA Poly’s season officially got back on track last Saturday night with their win in Lincoln and now they appear to be the favorite to win the ACC Coastal division. Before they head into conference play the Hokies get one final tune-up against the Hilltoppers. The only thing I know about WKY is they have the coolest mascot in America.
J.Pike’s Pick: Virginia Tech 33, Western Kentucky 3

#20 Maryland at Virginia
(Saturday, 6 pm, ESPN U)
Maryland hasn’t exactly been the most consistent team this season. They have gone from losing to Middle Tennessee and barely slipping by Delaware to beating Cal and Clemson so far this season. Luckily it probably won’t matter which Maryland team shows up for this game because Virginia has been flat out bad.
J.Pike’s Pick: Maryland 27, Virginia 13

Arizona State at #21 California
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
I’m going to call for a rare road upset here. Arizona State’s defense is actually not too bad and Cal will be playing without their most dangerous weapon, RB Jahvid Best. On top of that, Jeff Tedford also opened up the quarterback job in practice again which means there is a chance Nate Longspare could see the field. Yikes! Meanwhile, Rudy Carpenter and Keegan Herring (back from injury) are rested coming off the bye week, so they’ll be ready to give Cal yet another early-in-the-day wake-up call.
J.Pike’s Pick: Arizona State 30, California 24

#23 Illinois at Michigan
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
Michigan is riding high after their big second half comeback to beat Wisconsin a week ago. They’re going to have to put together a full game if they want to beat Illinois though. The explosive duo of Juice Williams to Arrelious Benn can put points on the board at a rate Michigan is incapable of matching. The Michigan defense will have to play a great game just to keep the Wolverines in this one.
J.Pike’s Pick: Illinois 27, Michigan 21

#24 Connecticut at North Carolina
(Saturday, 6 pm, ESPN 2)
This is an interesting matchup in that both teams will be playing without their injured starting quarterbacks. North Carolina had the benefit of breaking in Cam Sexton last week against Miami and he passed with flying colors. UConn isn’t quite as certain what they’ll get from Zach Frazier. One thing you can expect is Donald Brown to get the ball about 30 times. UConn’s tailback is one of the more underrated players in the nation (averaging 149 yards per game), but he’ll face a tough test against Marvin Austin and that Tar Heel D-Line. UConn always plays smart and tough, so they’ll keep this one close to the end, but North Carolina and Butch Davis will notch the win at home.
J.Pike’s Pick: North Carolina 28, Connecticut 24

Rice at #25 Tulsa
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
If you like shootouts you should find out if you have CBS College Sports channel. When Rice and Tulsa get together on Saturday night there is a very real possibility that they could actually blow up the scoreboard. Last week alone, Tulsa scored 62 points and Rice scored 77! The two teams combined are averaging 96 points per game, so this should be an entertaining game to watch. Hopefully it will go into overtime and both teams will score triple digits.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 61, Rice 54

WEEK TWO - Preview

Southern Miss @ #9 Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30am, ESPN360.com)
Why it could happen: Auburn didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard last weekend against Louisiana-Monroe. In fact the defense and special teams scored almost as many points as the offense did. Auburn is still trying to figure out their quarterback situation, but Southern Miss has a potent offense that amassed 633 yards and 51 points last week.
Why it won’t happen: The Auburn defense is significantly than the Ragin’ Cajuns defense. USM will score, but it will be much tougher going against Tuberville’s unit. Ben Tate should also have plenty of room to run the ball against the Golden Eagle defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Auburn 26, Southern Miss 16

#25 BYU @ Washington
(Saturday, 2pm, FSN)
Why it could happen: Husky Stadium isn’t an easy place to play. BYU has high expectations this season and are favored in this game. Even though Washington doesn’t look very good this year, this looks like a classic “trap” game.
Why it won’t happen: Jake Locker doesn’t have a good enough arm to keep Washington from being one dimensional on offense. BYU is good enough defensively to slow down Washington, and good enough offensively to score points in a difficult environment.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 33, Washington 20

#10 West Virginia @ East Carolina
(Saturday, 3:30pm, ESPN)
Why it could happen: East Carolina did it to Virginia Tech last week. Patrick Pinkney played a very good game against a Hokie defense that is far superior to what West Virginia is going to field. East Carolina has a solid defense too, and West Virginia didn’t show off the same potent running game they had last year, running for “only” 149 yards last week.
Why it won’t happen: Pat White will find a way to win. Even though they didn’t run the ball as well last week, White threw a career high 5 touchdown passes.
J.Pike’s Pick: West Virginia 27, East Carolina 20

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh
(Saturday, 5pm, ESPN360.com)
Why it could happen: Pitt was upset by Bowling Green last week, and Buffalo might be an even tougher opponent. Turner Gill’s Bulls routed UTEP last week to the tune of 42-17.
Why it won’t happen: Pitt has to circle the wagons and get a win for coach Dave Wannstedt here … don’t they?
J.Pike’s Pick: Pittsburgh 24, Buffalo 22

Ole Miss @ Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Houston Nutt has the Rebels on the upswing while Wake and the ACC appear to be declining. Wake looked good against Baylor, but this isn’t Baylor. Look for the Ole Miss defense to contain the Demon Deacon running game and force Riley Skinner to beat them. Dexter McCluster will rack up some big plays for the Rebel offense and ice this game late.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ole Miss 27, Wake Forest 24


Alright, so I lied. After picking only four games against the spread last week (and going 2-2), I see even more games I want to pick against the spread this week. We'll see how this goes.

Southern Miss (+17½) over Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30am, ESPN360.com)
Auburn’s offense isn’t quite up to speed yet and won’t break the 30 point mark. The defense is really good but new head coach Larry Fedora has the Southern Miss offense humming already, and they’ll score enough to keep it close.

Ole Miss (+8) over Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Congratulations Demon Deacons - you smacked around Baylor. Houston Nutt comes to town with a vastly improved Ole Miss squad that plays enough defense to possibly pull off the upset.

California (-13½) over Washington State
(Saturday, 5:30pm, FCS-Pacific)
Washington State simply doesn’t have enough players to compete this season. Cal on the other hand seems to have new life on offense thanks to the move from Nate Longspare to Kevin Riley at quarterback. Cal wins big.

Tulsa (-21½) over North Texas
(Saturday, 6pm)
Tulsa has one of the best offenses in the nation. Head coach Todd Graham has scored points everywhere he’s been, and North Texas coach Todd Dodge is in over his head here. Tulsa might go for 60 points in this one.

Western Michigan (-6) over Northern Illinois
(Saturday, 6pm)
Western Michigan tested their mettle in Lincoln last week and came out looking like they might be able to do some damage in the MAC. Northern Illinois on the other hand blew it against a Minnesota team that is one of the worst in the nation. Western wins handily at home.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Oklahoma (-21½) over Cincinnati
Air Force (+3) over Wyoming
Buffalo (+13) over Pittsburgh
South Florida (-14) over Central Florida
Iowa State (-7) over Kent State
Miami (+21½) over Florida
Arizona State (-14) over Stanford