SEC Preview

Projected Records & Standings

East Division

1. FLORIDA             11-1  (7-1)
2. GEORGIA              9-3  (5-3)
3. TENNESSEE            8-4  (4-4)
4. SOUTH CAROLINA       6-6  (3-5)
5. VANDERBILT           5-7  (2-6)
6. KENTUCKY             6-6  (2-6)

West Division

1. ALABAMA             10-2  (7-1)
2. LSU                 10-2  (6-2)
3. OLE MISS             9-3  (5-3)
4. ARKANSAS             7-5  (4-4)
5. AUBURN               6-6  (3-5)
6. MISSISSIPPI STATE    2-10 (0-8)

East Champion: FLORIDA
Big shocker here. Everyone and their mothers are picking Florida to win not only the SEC East, but the national championship as well. The Gators return the bulk of a championship roster, so another SEC crown and run at the national title is not out of the question. HOWEVER, I will go out on a limb and guarantee Urban Meyer and company will lose at least once this season, possibly at LSU on October 10th.

West Champion: ALABAMA
Nick Saban quickly put his stamp on the Alabama program, which paid big dividends in 2008. The Crimson Tide’s calling card was their toughness and line play en route to a near-flawless first three months of the season. The Tide have a lot of turnover on offense this year, but if Star Jackson wins the quarterback job they could be more explosive. Even if Alabama doesn’t improve offensively, the defense should be good enough to carry the team to at least 9 wins.

Question the Hype: OLE MISS
Whoa, people. Let’s slow down on putting Ole Miss in the top 5 already. I like Houston Nutt and I like his team heading into the season, but the Rebels play in the best division in college football. Nutt is only in his second year. He picked up a couple of nice wins in 2008, and there will be more big wins over the course of his tenure in Oxford, but to leapfrog Alabama and LSU during a season in which Arkansas is poised to make a jump in the standings as well just doesn’t seem realistic to me. Not yet at least.

Could Surprise: TENNESSEE
Lane Kiffin made more enemies in his first three months on the job than most coaches make their entire careers. Most opposing SEC fans are rooting for the Vols to go 0-12 in his rookie season – along with probably the majority of opposing SEC coaches. But Kiffin has two secret weapons in his father Monte and superstar safety Eric Berry. Berry is a rare talent that will anchor what should be at the very least a solid defense.

Offensively, the Vols have an actual direction for a change after converting from running team to passing team to spread offense and back again seemingly by the series over the last several seasons. That means Tennessee will be a more stable team than they have been recently, a strange fact considering the program is in a state of turnover due to the coaching change.

Bo Jackson Trophy Candidates:
Top 3:
WR-Julio Jones, Alabama
QB-Tim Tebow, Florida
OT-Ciron Black, LSU

Ten to Watch:
WR-A.J. Green, Georgia
OG-Mike Johnson, Alabama
WR-Brandon LaFell, LSU
WR-Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss
RB-Chris Rainey/Jeff Demps, Florida
RB-Charles Scott, LSU
RB-Alphonso Smith, Kentucky
RB-Michael Smith, Arkansas
QB-Jevan Snead, Ole Miss
TE-D.J. Williams, Arkansas

Herzlich Trophy Candidates:
Top 3:
SS-Eric Berry, Tennessee
LB-Brandon Spikes, Florida
DT-Terrence Cody, Alabama

Fifteen to Watch:
DE-Rahim Alem, LSU
FS-Ahmad Black, Florida
DE-Antonio Coleman, Auburn
LB-Rennie Curran, Georgia
DE-Jermaine Cunningham, Florida
CB-Joe Haden, Florida
DE-Greg Hardy, Ole Miss
CB-Myron Lewis, Vanderbilt
CB-Trevard Lindley, Kentucky
LB-Rolando McClain, Alabama
CB-Walter McFadden, Auburn
LB-Eric Norwood, South Carolina
DT-Jeff Owens, Georgia
CB-Patrick Peterson, LSU
DT-Malcolm Sheppard, Arkansas

Arrington Trophy Finalists

LaVAR ARRINGTON TROPHY

The Arrington Trophy is a Pikes Picks award handed out annually to the best defensive player in the nation. It is named after former Penn State linebacker LaVar Arrington for his menacing defensive presence. Arrington had one of the most memorable moments in college football over the last decade when he made his now-famous "LaVar Leap" to stop Illinois on 4th down [LINK].

There were so many great offenses in college football this year that it's easy to forget about all the great players on the defensive side of the ball. I had a hard time narrowing my list down to eight finalists (sorry Sen'Derrick Marks), but here they are.

J.Pike's Finalists

ERIC BERRY
(Sophomore S, Tennessee)
Key Stats
72 tackles;
7 interceptions (2 returned for touchdown);
6 passes broken up;
3 sacks;
8.5 tackles for loss;
Eric Berry is so impressive that he continually stood out as one of the best players in the SEC despite playing for one of the worst teams in the conference. He defines the term "playmaker".

BRANDON GRAHAM
(Junior DE, Michigan)
Key Stats
46 tackles;
10 sacks;
20 tackles for loss;
2 forced fumbles;
Much like Berry, Graham took over games at times despite playing for a terrible team. There were several great defensive ends in the Big Ten this sesason, but Graham stands out from the pack because of his consistency.

MARK HERZLICH
(Junior LB, Boston College)
Key Stats
105 tackles (leads the team);
3 sacks;
11 tackles for loss;
6 interceptions (2 returned for touchdown);
7 passes broken up;
2 forced fumbles, 2 fumbles recovered;
Herzlich made his living around the ball in 2008. No matter where the play went, Herzlich was there. He led the Eagles with a remarkable 6 interceptions, but he also made plays behind the line of scrimmage. It didn't stop there - Herzlich was a terror on special teams as well!

PERIA JERRY
(Senior DT, Ole Miss)
Key Stats
47 tackles;
6 sacks;
17 tackles for loss;
3 QB pressures;
2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery;
Jerry dominated the line of scrimmage in SEC play, which is not an easy feat. He managed an incredible 17 tackles for loss from a position usually limited to tangling up blockers so other players can make the tackle.

RASHAD JOHNSON
(Senior S, Alabama)
Key Stats
82 tackles (2nd on team);
5 interceptions (2 returned for touchdown);
11 passes broken up;
1 sack, 5 tackles for loss;
1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery;
Johnson was the standout player on a standout Alabama defense in 2008. Whenever the Tide needed a big play, Johnson was there to make it. Not bad for a former walk on.

REY MAUALUGA
(Senior LB, USC)
Key Stats
73 tackles (leads the team);
2.5 tackles for loss;
2 interceptions (one returned for touchdown);
3 passes broken up;
Maualuga was the vocal and emotional leader on one of the best defenses in America. He set the tone and led the way for the Trojans, who held all but two opponents to 10 points or less.

BRIAN ORAKPO
(Senior DE, Texas)
Key Stats
40 tackles;
10.5 sacks;
18 takles for loss;
4 forced fumbes;
27 QB pressures;
2 passes broken up;
Orakpo is an impressive physical specimen at defensive end for the Lonhorns. His size/speed combination is unmatched in college football, and it allowed him to pile up double digits in sacks and live in opponents' backfields all season long. He dominated Oklahoma's All American left tackle Phil Loadholt back in October to the tune of 2 sacks and 4 tackles for loss.

ALPHONSO SMITH
(Senior CB, Wake Forest)
Key Stats
36 tackles;
6 interceptions;
13 passes broken up;
2.5 tackles for loss;
1 blocked punt;
20 career interceptions;
You'd think offenses would stop throwing Smith's way after he collected 14 interceptions over his first three years at Wake. But Smith kept finding ways to make plays and pick off passes even with game plans designed to go as far away from him as possible.

WEEK FOURTEEN - Top 25 Preview (Part I)

#6 Penn State (11-1) is IDLE
NEXT: BCS Bowl game (completed regular season)

#8 Utah (12-0) is IDLE
NEXT: BCS Bowl game (completed regular season)


#17 Georgia Tech (8-3) at #9 Georgia (9-2)
(Saturday, 11 am, CBS)
The Peach State rivalry wasn't expected to be this up in the air. Georgia was the preseason #1 team in the land and Georgia Tech was supposed to suffer the growing pains that go along with breaking in a new head coach. Now it looks like Georgia Tech is the team on the rise and Georgia is the program treading water. Georgia has a couple elements that give them the edge here though. One is obviously running back Knowshon Moreno. Moreno is the antidote to Georgia Tech's excellent defensive line, and I think he'll eventually get the better of that matchup. The second is the speed and experience the Bulldogs possess on the defensive side of the ball. Whereas Miami struggled to stay disciplined against Paul Johnson's triple option attack, Rennie Curran and company will be in the right place at the right time to slow down Josh Nesbitt and Jonathan Dwyer.
J.Pike's Pick: Georgia 28, Georgia Tech 24

#10 Ohio State (10-2) is IDLE
NEXT: Bowl game (completed regular season)

#12 TCU (10-2) is IDLE
NEXT: Bowl game (completed regular season)

Kansas (6-5) vs #13 Missouri (9-2)
@Kansas City, MO
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
There isn't nearly as much pizzazz in this matchup as there was a year ago when a tickets to both the Big XII and National Title games were on the line for both teams. To put it quite simply, Kansas isn't as good as they were a year ago. Without players like Aqib Talib and Brandon McAnderson, the Jayhaks are without any legitimate weapons. Missouri has proven themselves to be overrated as well, but with Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin there is still enough firepower on hand to score points in a hurry.
J.Pike's Pick: Missouri 38, Kansas 27

Fresno State (7-4) at #14 Boise State (11-0)
(Friday, 5 pm, ESPN 2)
Boise's perfect season is on the line against Fresno State. The defense fell apart down the stretch against Nevada last week - nearly blowing second half leads of 31-10 and 41-24. Now that a BCS Bowl berth looks unlikely for the Broncos (Utah will likely take their spot), how much do they have to play for? Fortunately for Boise, Fresno State quarterback Tom Brandstater has been playing poorly all season and doesn't appear to be capable of leading an upset charge.
J.Pike's Pick: Boise State 30, Fresno State 27

#23 Oregon (8-3) at #15 Oregon State (8-3)
(Saturday, 6 pm, Versus)
If you can believe it, the Pac-10 title is on the line north of the California border Saturday night. The Oregon State Beavers hold the tie breaker advantage over USC thanks to their head-to-head win early in the season. So if Mike Riley's troops can win this game, the Beavers - not the Trojans - will be getting the automatic BCS bid. Mighty Mite freshman Jacquizz Rodgers is questionable for the game, but I don't care. Oregon State is fired up and still has plenty of speed to spare in James Rodgers and Sammie Stroughter.
J.Pike's Pick: Oregon State 35, Oregon 28

Syracuse (3-8) at #16 Cincinnati (9-2)
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN360.com)
Tony Pike and the Bearcats can clinch the Big East title and a BCS bowl berth with a win over Syracuse Saturday. Pike has Heisman eyes watching, so expect him to take full advantage of an outmanned Syracuse team and put up another 300-yards passing.
J.Pike's Pick: Cincinnati 27, Syracuse 13

Maryland (7-4) at #18 Boston College (8-3)
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
Welcome to the ACC where chaos reins supreme. Boston College enters this contest ranked and favored - which means you can count on Maryland for the win. Quarterback Chris Crane is out for the season with a broken collarbone, which means Dominique Davis will get the starting nod. Davis led the game winning drive against Wake Forest a week ago and brings a lot more athleticism to the position. But he doesn't have the same grasp of the offense that Crane developed over the course of the season, so the playbook will be limited. Maryland quarterback Chris Turner generally plays his best against ranked opponents, so look for the Terps to make up for their poor showing against Florida State last weekend with a win on the road over the Eagles.
J. Pike's Pick: Maryland 20, Boston College 14

#19 California (7-4) is IDLE
NEXT: vs. Washington (0-11)

#21 Michigan State (9-3) is IDLE
NEXT: Bowl game (completed regular season)

#22 West Virginia (7-3) at Pittsburgh (7-3)
(Friday, 11 am, ABC)
West Virginia's national title dreams were squashed by a Pitt in an upset last year. This year there won't be nearly as many national viewers because neither team is really all that good. Mountaineer speed, in the form of Pat White and Noel Devine, will get their revenge though.
J.Pike's Pick: West Virginia 27, Pittsburgh 24

Mississippi State (4-7) at #24 Ole Miss (7-4)
(Friday, 11:30 am, Raycom)
The Egg Bowl is an underrated rivalry. It's not always the best football, but for some reason I still watch it. Houston Nutt has Ole Miss on the rise in the SEC, and they have a lot more offensive firepower than Mississippi State will be able to muster.
J.Pike's Pick: Ole Miss 24, Mississippi State 13

#25 Ball State (12-0) is IDLE
NEXT: MAC Championship Game vs. Buffalo (7-4)

WEEK NINE - Preview

There is plenty of intrigue in the schedule this week with four matchups featuring top 16 teams. There is also upset potential all over as 13 top 25 teams must play away from home. But here are three games that aren’t on the national radar that have interesting storylines as well.

SMU @ Navy
This is quite the study in contrasting styles. New SMU head coach June Jones obviously likes to let it fly as he proved so often as the architect of Hawaii’s high flying offense the last several years. Navy on the other hand will run the triple option on first, second, AND third down until you stop them. Then they’ll run some more. Jones isn’t earning his $2 million a year yet, and I’m not sure he ever will. Go with the ground game in this one, even if Navy quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada Nahasapeemapetilon has to miss another game due to his lingering hamstring injury. Running back Shun White (averaging 110 yards per game) will pick up the slack.
J.Pike’s Pick: Navy 30, SMU 20

Ole Miss @ Arkansas
The Nutt Bowl! Despite a successful 8-4 regular season capped by a win over eventual national champion LSU, Houston Nutt was unceremoniously run out of Fayetteville. Arkansas fans have been rewarded with a head coach known more for his disloyalty than his coaching ability, a team that won’t make a bowl game, and a defense that is often allergic to tackling - maybe they should bring in that referee from the South Carolina/LSU game last week! [LINK] That bodes well for Dexter McCluster, the speedy all-purpose threat who will get the ball a number of different ways in this ballgame, including direct snaps at quarterback. Rising freshman running back Enrique Davis should also take advantage of the generous Hogs defense. And keep your eye on Ole Miss defensive end Greg Hardy – he’s an underrated talent that you might know more about if he hadn’t missed so much time early this year due to injury.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ole Miss 28, Arkansas 20

Notre Dame @ Washington
Tyrone Willingham gets to host his former team for what is looking more and more like the last time. At 0-6, the entire state of Washington has basically signed off on his termination at the end of the season. I’m not sure I totally agree with that move, but his record definitely doesn’t help him out. Even without quarterback Jake Locker I still think Washington has some decent young players on the roster, and don’t forget they took BYU down to the wire earlier this year. Notre Dame and Jimmy Clausen seem to finally be growing up, so they should be able to pull out a win in Seattle. But it will be tougher than you might expect.
J.Pike’s Pick: Notre Dame 33, Washington 27

WEEK FIVE - Preview

UPSET WATCH

Maryland @ #16 Clemson
Why it could happen: Clemson isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. For all their talent, they haven’t managed to put together a complete game yet this year. Maryland on the other hand seems to be hitting their stride since Chris Turner took over at quarterback.
Why it won’t happen: Clemson’s defense won’t allow Turner to make the same plays he made against Cal. James Davis and the running game put up 249 rushing yards against the Terps last year, and I expect them to approach that again this weekend. But it won’t be easy.
J.Pike’s Pick: Clemson 26, Maryland 18

Marshall @ West Virginia
Why it could happen: Marshall was up on West Virginia at halftime in last season’s matchup, and Mark Snyder finally has the Herd back on the winning track in 2008.
Why it won’t happen: West Virginia has struggled to find an identity early on, but they at least got back to the running game last week against Colorado. Pat White and Noel Devine have too much speed for the Marshall defense and they’ll find their way to the end zone more times than the Herd offense will.
J.Pike’s Pick: West Virginia 32, Marshall 27

UPSET WARNING

Northwestern @ Iowa
Why it will happen: Northwestern is better than anybody is giving them credit for so far. They play solid defense and have two playmakers on offense (QB C.J. Bacher & RB Tyrell Sutton) that Iowa can’t match. Northwestern can flat out manufacture more points than Iowa. Bacher will have a big day.
J.Pike’s Pick: Northwestern 27, Iowa 17

Colorado vs Florida State
(@ Jacksonville, FL)
Why it will happen: Florida State is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation right now. The play they have gotten from their quarterbacks the past 7+ years has been atrocious, and it has led to the deterioration of the offense to the point it’s at now. The Noles still like to talk trash and attempt to intimidate their opponents before the game (see photo evidence from last week's loss to Wake Forest), but that doesn’t work as well when you’re a .500 team. In fact it just makes you look like a bunch of morons. Colorado running back Rod Stewart will send Florida State away on a Downtown Train with a 2-2 record.
J.Pike’s Pick: Colorado 21, Florida State 13

Northwestern (+8) over Iowa
There’s no way Iowa is 8 points better than Northwestern because I think Northwestern is better than Iowa straight up.

Ole Miss (+23) over Florida
Florida isn’t clicking offensively yet this year and Urban Meyer is too busy complaining about the new clock rules to fix it. Last year it was his running backs’ fault the Gators couldn’t run the ball. You might want to take a look in the mirror sometime, Urb? Houston Nutt will have Ole Miss ready to play and they’ll make it a game into the fourth quarter.

Cincinnati (-10) over Akron
Now that Tony Pike has proven himself at quarterback, I expect Cincinnati to continue putting up 40 point games against inferior opponents such as Akron. Cincy wins big as Pike continues his late bid for the Heisman Trophy.

Rice (-18½) over North Texas High
Rice quarterback Chase Clement is actually pretty good. Facing one of the best high school teams in the state of Texas might be imposing for Hurst L.D. Bell, but Clement will have no problems. Rice will roll to a four touchdown win. At least North Texas High can get back to concentrating on winning their district and making State after this beat down.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Duke (-7) over Virginia
Arkansas (+27½) over Texas
Colorado (+6) over Florida State
Purdue (+2½) over Notre Dame
Marshall (+15½) over West Virginia
Navy (+16) over Wake Forest
Oregon (-19½) over Washington State

Gameday Commentary - Afternoon Games

*The call at the end of the BYU/Washington game was a disgrace. In case you missed it, Washington QB Jake Locker made a nice run to get into the end zone with 2 seconds left in the game to potentially tie the game. In the excitement he tossed the ball up in the air over his back and the official threw a flag for excessive celebration. Then the ensuing 35-yard PAT attempt was blocked. I'm sorry, but you don't ever throw a flag on what Locker did - ESPECIALLY in that situation. Washington was robbed - sort of. Should have executed the kick a little better.

*The Cincinnati/Oklahoma game went almost exactly as I expected. Oklahoma jumped on those pretenders early and Cincinnati committed several unnecessary penalties. Oklahoma is up 45-20 early in the 4th quarter and already have well over 500 yards of offense. The kick coverage has been troublesome though as Cincinnati has made several long runs on kick returns, including one that went for a touchdown. They'll need to work on that for sure.

*Stephen McGee has joined JaPorky Lane on the bench - finally. It only took a terrible performance against Arkansas State and a slow start against New Mexico. Jerrod Johnson is in now and he led two touchdown drives prior to halftime. The Aggie defense needs work though. Coach Fran left the cupboard bare on that side of the ball.

*East Carolina is for real, and West Virginia is not. ECU has owned the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and for some reason the Mountaineers think they are a passing team now. What? Why would you take away a huge advantage by not letting Pat White run? Why even play the game? But I don't want to take anything away from the Pirates. They are playing with a passion that is great to see. Wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia are great wins for the program already this year.

*My upset pick of the week almost came through. Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead scrambled back and forth to find Cordera Eason in the end zone with a minute to go in the game to give Ole Miss a 28-27 lead. But Wake came back with a quick drive down the field to set up the game winning 41-yard FG by Sam Swank. Oh well, maybe next week...

*The Notre Dame offense looks every bit as awful as they were last season. The offensive line is terrible and Jimmy Clausen is the biggest tool of all time. They finally took the lead 14-13 on a touchdown pass early in the fourth quarter, but four turnovers and several breakdowns up front have led to yet another inefficient outing for the Charlie Weis offense. This is a bad team yet again.

*And did anybody else notice how much trouble Colorado had with Eastern Washington? They were down 21-7 at halftime and needed an interception return for touchdown with 2 minutes left in the game to win it.

WEEK TWO - Preview

Southern Miss @ #9 Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30am, ESPN360.com)
Why it could happen: Auburn didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard last weekend against Louisiana-Monroe. In fact the defense and special teams scored almost as many points as the offense did. Auburn is still trying to figure out their quarterback situation, but Southern Miss has a potent offense that amassed 633 yards and 51 points last week.
Why it won’t happen: The Auburn defense is significantly than the Ragin’ Cajuns defense. USM will score, but it will be much tougher going against Tuberville’s unit. Ben Tate should also have plenty of room to run the ball against the Golden Eagle defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Auburn 26, Southern Miss 16

#25 BYU @ Washington
(Saturday, 2pm, FSN)
Why it could happen: Husky Stadium isn’t an easy place to play. BYU has high expectations this season and are favored in this game. Even though Washington doesn’t look very good this year, this looks like a classic “trap” game.
Why it won’t happen: Jake Locker doesn’t have a good enough arm to keep Washington from being one dimensional on offense. BYU is good enough defensively to slow down Washington, and good enough offensively to score points in a difficult environment.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 33, Washington 20

#10 West Virginia @ East Carolina
(Saturday, 3:30pm, ESPN)
Why it could happen: East Carolina did it to Virginia Tech last week. Patrick Pinkney played a very good game against a Hokie defense that is far superior to what West Virginia is going to field. East Carolina has a solid defense too, and West Virginia didn’t show off the same potent running game they had last year, running for “only” 149 yards last week.
Why it won’t happen: Pat White will find a way to win. Even though they didn’t run the ball as well last week, White threw a career high 5 touchdown passes.
J.Pike’s Pick: West Virginia 27, East Carolina 20

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh
(Saturday, 5pm, ESPN360.com)
Why it could happen: Pitt was upset by Bowling Green last week, and Buffalo might be an even tougher opponent. Turner Gill’s Bulls routed UTEP last week to the tune of 42-17.
Why it won’t happen: Pitt has to circle the wagons and get a win for coach Dave Wannstedt here … don’t they?
J.Pike’s Pick: Pittsburgh 24, Buffalo 22

Ole Miss @ Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Houston Nutt has the Rebels on the upswing while Wake and the ACC appear to be declining. Wake looked good against Baylor, but this isn’t Baylor. Look for the Ole Miss defense to contain the Demon Deacon running game and force Riley Skinner to beat them. Dexter McCluster will rack up some big plays for the Rebel offense and ice this game late.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ole Miss 27, Wake Forest 24


Alright, so I lied. After picking only four games against the spread last week (and going 2-2), I see even more games I want to pick against the spread this week. We'll see how this goes.

Southern Miss (+17½) over Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30am, ESPN360.com)
Auburn’s offense isn’t quite up to speed yet and won’t break the 30 point mark. The defense is really good but new head coach Larry Fedora has the Southern Miss offense humming already, and they’ll score enough to keep it close.

Ole Miss (+8) over Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Congratulations Demon Deacons - you smacked around Baylor. Houston Nutt comes to town with a vastly improved Ole Miss squad that plays enough defense to possibly pull off the upset.

California (-13½) over Washington State
(Saturday, 5:30pm, FCS-Pacific)
Washington State simply doesn’t have enough players to compete this season. Cal on the other hand seems to have new life on offense thanks to the move from Nate Longspare to Kevin Riley at quarterback. Cal wins big.

Tulsa (-21½) over North Texas
(Saturday, 6pm)
Tulsa has one of the best offenses in the nation. Head coach Todd Graham has scored points everywhere he’s been, and North Texas coach Todd Dodge is in over his head here. Tulsa might go for 60 points in this one.

Western Michigan (-6) over Northern Illinois
(Saturday, 6pm)
Western Michigan tested their mettle in Lincoln last week and came out looking like they might be able to do some damage in the MAC. Northern Illinois on the other hand blew it against a Minnesota team that is one of the worst in the nation. Western wins handily at home.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Oklahoma (-21½) over Cincinnati
Air Force (+3) over Wyoming
Buffalo (+13) over Pittsburgh
South Florida (-14) over Central Florida
Iowa State (-7) over Kent State
Miami (+21½) over Florida
Arizona State (-14) over Stanford

SEC Preview

Favorites

East: Georgia
Mark Richt’s squad is loaded, and a preseason favorite to compete for a national title. The schedule is also loaded as the Bulldogs face eight coaches who have won national championships on one level or another – and that doesn’t even count Tommy Tuberville who went undefeated at Auburn in 2004. If the talented Bulldogs can stay hungry and manage that schedule, they’ll be in the SEC title game with a berth in the National Championship game on the line.

West: Auburn
Defending national champ LSU has too many holes to fill to be considered a favorite in the West. Auburn is breaking in two new coordinators, but strangely I have more faith in Tuberville than I do in the gambling Les Miles. There’s no way LSU converts on 4th downs as often as they did last season again!

Sleepers
East: South Carolina
Steve Spurrier predicted his Gamecocks would compete for the SEC East title prior to last season. A rash of injuries put an end to those dreams despite a 6-1 start. If the loaded defense can stay healthy, new coordinator Ellis Johnson should be able to mold them into one of the finest defenses in the nation. A good defense can go a long way.

West: Mississippi State
Was Mississippi State a one-year wonder, or are they going to stick around in the SEC West race again this year? Don’t be surprised if Sly Croom and his rock-solid defense, led by playmaking DB Derek Pegues, make another appearance in the postseason. The Bulldogs beat Alabama and won at Auburn last season, so there’s no reason they can’t pull off a similar feat again. And because it looks like LSU will take a step back coming off their national championship season, anything can happen in the wild SEC West.

On the Rise: Ole Miss
It’s safe to say the Ed Orgeron experiment was a mistake and should just be forgotten. Enter Houston Nutt, whose track record in the SEC proves he’ll be able to bring consistency back to the program. The cupboard is far from bare too, especially on the defensive side of the ball. He’ll need to find a running back, but since when has that been a problem for Nutt? True freshman Enrique Davis will challenge for playing time, but don’t count Dexter McCluster out of the equation. He showed flashes of brilliance as a true freshman two years ago, but was later inexplicably moved to wide receiver.

Declining: Arkansas
What were they thinking? Running the successful Houston Nutt out of town is one thing, but to turn around and hire Bobby Petrino is a double-whammy on the program. Petrino is a sound offensive coach, but he will have a hard time commanding respect from his players any more, and he’ll just leave a mess behind when he eventually bolts again (see Louisville and the Atlanta Falcons current situations). Expect some down years for the Razorbacks.

PROJECTED STANDINGS & RECORDS

East
1. Georgia	11-1 (7-1 conference)
2. Florida	10-2 (6-2)
3. Tennessee	9-3 (5-3)
4. South Carolina	7-5 (4-4)
5. Kentucky	6-6 (2-6)
6. Vanderbilt	2-10 (0-8)
West
1. Auburn	10-2 (6-2)
2. LSU	9-3 (5-3)
3. Alabama	7-5 (4-4)
4. Mississippi State	7-5 (4-4)
5. Ole Miss	6-6 (3-5)
6. Arkansas	4-8 (2-6)

PLAYERS OF THE YEAR
Offense: Knowshon Moreno (RB, Georgia)
Defense: Jasper Brinkley (LB, South Carolina)
Special Teams: Brandon James (KR, Florida)

NATIONAL AWARDS CANDIDATES
Darry Beckwith (LB-LSU) – Arrington, Fave
Eric Berry (DB-Ten) – Arrington, Deion
Tray Blackmon (LB-Aub) – Arrington
Jasper Brinkley (LB-SoCar) – Arrington, Fave
Wes Byrum (K-Aub) – Sproles/Sauerbrun
Dannell Ellerbe (LB-UGA) – Arrington, Fave
Greg Hardy (DE-Miss) - Arrington
Percy Harvin (WR-Fla) – Bo Jackson, Sayers
Brandon James (KR-Fla) – Sproles/Sauerbrun
Ricky Jean-Francois (DL-LSU) – Arrington
Rashad Johnson (DB-Bama) – Deion
Knowshon Moreno (RB-UGA) – Bo Jackson, Sayers, Fave
Captain Munnerlyn (DB-SoCar) – Deion, Fave
Chris Nickson (QB-Vandy) - Frazier
Derek Pegues (DB-MSU) – Arrington, Deion
Chris Rainey (RB-Fla) - Sayers
Andre Smith (OL-Bama) – Bo Jackson
Brannan Southerland (FB-UGA) – Fave
Brandon Spikes (LB-Fla) – Arrington
Matthew Stafford (QB-UGA) – Bo Jackson, Fave
Tim Tebow (QB-Fla) – Bo Jackson, Frazier
Gold Wrenches:
LSU defensive line
Tennessee offensive line
Florida offensive line
Georgia defensive line
Ole Miss offensive line
Florida defensive line
Alabama offensive line
Auburn defensive line
Auburn offensive line
LSU offensive line
Ole Miss defensive line

Top Coaching Hires

1. Bo Pelini, Nebraska

Everything coming out of Lincoln indicates this could be the type of hire that defines an era of a program. The sting of the Bill Callahan experiment/fiasco/disaster might have a little something to do with that, but at least Pelini has injected life back into a once proud program. The excitement has returned because Bo Pelini has a defensive pedigree that leads me to believe the “Blackshirt” tradition will be restored as early as August 31, 2008. Plus he’s got a fancy new National Championship ring, and I guarantee you he wants another one as soon as he can get a shot at it.

2. Houston Nutt, Ole Miss

It’s still weird to me how much Arkansas fans despised Houston Nutt. He did nothing but win in Fayetteville, which is tough to do in the SEC as consistently as he did. Now he takes over a decently stocked Ole Miss squad ready to get some competent coaching again. Ed Orgeron may not have had a clue how to get a football into the end zone, but he could recruit. Nutt left a bad situation and walked into a good situation where he can essentially pick up right where he left off. And do you think he’ll have a hard time recruiting running backs any time soon?

3. Mike Sherman, Texas A&M

This was a very quiet, calculated hire that is flying under a lot of radars. After making a big splash the last time around with Dennis Franchione, it might be exactly what the Aggies need. Sherman will bring fundamentally sound, smashmouth football back to College Station – and not “smashmouth” in the form of a 280-pound offensive guard playing running back. Sherman’s specialty is the offensive line, which is a great place to start in terms of building a program. With a little luck, he might be able to coach the Aggies back into the thick of the Big XII South discussion, which will get them back into the recruiting battles they’ve been missing out on in the state of Texas the last several years.

4. Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech

Paul Johnson won me over when I saw him win a Division 1-AA national title with Georgia Southern. He featured a ridiculously sound option attack that I have always been a sucker for. Then he got a shot at Navy, which at the time of his hire was considered to be a sinking ship (so to speak) in the modern college football world where recruiting speed is all that matters. Not only did he win at Navy, he did it by playing “old fashioned” football. He enters the ACC now where he’ll actually be able to recruit D-1A talent to run his schemes. You can bet on Georgia Tech being fundamentally sound and being one of the best rushing attacks in the nation when he finally gets all his players in place. That might just be enough to take over the ACC during it’s down years.

5. Rick Neuheisel, UCLA

Skippy gets this spot based more on his assistant coach hires than on his own merits. Now don’t get me wrong, I like the guy. He brings enthusiasm everywhere he goes, and he’s won too. But he’s also left two programs in bad shape and his act might be growing a little tired. Hiring Norm Chow to coach the offense was one of the smartest moves he could make. Chow brings instant credibility to the staff, as well as the ability to coach quarterbacks – that is, if there’s still a healthy quarterback on the roster. Neuheisel knows a thing or two about grooming quarterbacks as well. However, deciding to retain defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker (and then talking him into staying) might turn out to be his best move. Over the past couple seasons, Walker has quietly turned UCLA into one of the premier defenses in the west. Granted, that’s not saying a whole lot in the defensively-challenged Pac-10, but it’s still an accomplishment. Neuhesel has set himself up nicely to accomplish his goal of competing with crosstown rival USC.

6. Kevin Sumlin, Houston

This is a strong hire that will keep the momentum going in Houston.

7. Rich Rodriguez, Michigan

There will be several bumps in the road to installing his spread offense at Michigan, but they’ll be more competitive against Ohio State.

8. Bill Stewart, West Virginia

Stewart gives the program stability while it positions itself for a rare run for the national title. He also brings Jeff Mullen over from Wake Forest to run the offense.

9. tie - Steve Fairchild, Colorado State; Larry Fedora, Southern Miss

Both of these non-BCS schools have tradition, and both made solid selections to replace long-time, successful coaches.

10. tie - David Cutcliffe, Duke; Art Briles, Baylor

These are two bright offensive minds, but will it really matter? These are programs where coaching careers have gone to die lately.