WEEK TWO - Preview

Southern Miss @ #9 Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30am, ESPN360.com)
Why it could happen: Auburn didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard last weekend against Louisiana-Monroe. In fact the defense and special teams scored almost as many points as the offense did. Auburn is still trying to figure out their quarterback situation, but Southern Miss has a potent offense that amassed 633 yards and 51 points last week.
Why it won’t happen: The Auburn defense is significantly than the Ragin’ Cajuns defense. USM will score, but it will be much tougher going against Tuberville’s unit. Ben Tate should also have plenty of room to run the ball against the Golden Eagle defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Auburn 26, Southern Miss 16

#25 BYU @ Washington
(Saturday, 2pm, FSN)
Why it could happen: Husky Stadium isn’t an easy place to play. BYU has high expectations this season and are favored in this game. Even though Washington doesn’t look very good this year, this looks like a classic “trap” game.
Why it won’t happen: Jake Locker doesn’t have a good enough arm to keep Washington from being one dimensional on offense. BYU is good enough defensively to slow down Washington, and good enough offensively to score points in a difficult environment.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 33, Washington 20

#10 West Virginia @ East Carolina
(Saturday, 3:30pm, ESPN)
Why it could happen: East Carolina did it to Virginia Tech last week. Patrick Pinkney played a very good game against a Hokie defense that is far superior to what West Virginia is going to field. East Carolina has a solid defense too, and West Virginia didn’t show off the same potent running game they had last year, running for “only” 149 yards last week.
Why it won’t happen: Pat White will find a way to win. Even though they didn’t run the ball as well last week, White threw a career high 5 touchdown passes.
J.Pike’s Pick: West Virginia 27, East Carolina 20

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh
(Saturday, 5pm, ESPN360.com)
Why it could happen: Pitt was upset by Bowling Green last week, and Buffalo might be an even tougher opponent. Turner Gill’s Bulls routed UTEP last week to the tune of 42-17.
Why it won’t happen: Pitt has to circle the wagons and get a win for coach Dave Wannstedt here … don’t they?
J.Pike’s Pick: Pittsburgh 24, Buffalo 22

Ole Miss @ Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Houston Nutt has the Rebels on the upswing while Wake and the ACC appear to be declining. Wake looked good against Baylor, but this isn’t Baylor. Look for the Ole Miss defense to contain the Demon Deacon running game and force Riley Skinner to beat them. Dexter McCluster will rack up some big plays for the Rebel offense and ice this game late.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ole Miss 27, Wake Forest 24


Alright, so I lied. After picking only four games against the spread last week (and going 2-2), I see even more games I want to pick against the spread this week. We'll see how this goes.

Southern Miss (+17½) over Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30am, ESPN360.com)
Auburn’s offense isn’t quite up to speed yet and won’t break the 30 point mark. The defense is really good but new head coach Larry Fedora has the Southern Miss offense humming already, and they’ll score enough to keep it close.

Ole Miss (+8) over Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Congratulations Demon Deacons - you smacked around Baylor. Houston Nutt comes to town with a vastly improved Ole Miss squad that plays enough defense to possibly pull off the upset.

California (-13½) over Washington State
(Saturday, 5:30pm, FCS-Pacific)
Washington State simply doesn’t have enough players to compete this season. Cal on the other hand seems to have new life on offense thanks to the move from Nate Longspare to Kevin Riley at quarterback. Cal wins big.

Tulsa (-21½) over North Texas
(Saturday, 6pm)
Tulsa has one of the best offenses in the nation. Head coach Todd Graham has scored points everywhere he’s been, and North Texas coach Todd Dodge is in over his head here. Tulsa might go for 60 points in this one.

Western Michigan (-6) over Northern Illinois
(Saturday, 6pm)
Western Michigan tested their mettle in Lincoln last week and came out looking like they might be able to do some damage in the MAC. Northern Illinois on the other hand blew it against a Minnesota team that is one of the worst in the nation. Western wins handily at home.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Oklahoma (-21½) over Cincinnati
Air Force (+3) over Wyoming
Buffalo (+13) over Pittsburgh
South Florida (-14) over Central Florida
Iowa State (-7) over Kent State
Miami (+21½) over Florida
Arizona State (-14) over Stanford

WEEK ONE - Preview

UPSET WATCH

Wake Forest @ Baylor
(Thursday, 7pm, FSN)
Why it could happen: Wake Forest is getting fat from all the preseason hype and is slightly overrated. Baylor head coach Art Briles will have his team fired up and ready to play the best game fans in Waco have seen in several years.
Why it won’t happen: Wake isn’t that overrated. Baylor will hang in there for a while on the high of the new coaching staff and their home crowd, but the Demon Deacon defense will come up with key stops down the stretch.

Virginia Tech vs East Carolina
(Saturday, 11am, ESPN)
Why it could happen: East Carolina returns quarterback Patrick Pinkney and a large portion of their defense. Virginia Tech on the other hand loses just about every key playmaker off last year’s team that was pushed to the limit by this same Pirate team.
Why it won’t happen: Virginia Tech still has too much overall talent to lose this game. It will be close throughout and the Hokies will need some offensive skill players to step up and make some plays, but in the end the Hokie defense has enough talent to shut down the ECU offense in a low scoring affair.

UPSET WARNING

Utah @ Michigan
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Michigan simply isn’t ready. New head coach Rich Rodriguez has too many new offensive schemes to put in and not enough players to run them. Utah plays plenty of defense and quarterback Brian Johnson is more than ready to duplicate what Armanti Edwards did to the Wolverines in The Big House last season.

Michigan State @ California
(Saturday, 7pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Mark Dantonio’s Spartans are simply too physical for Cal. Jahvid Best has excellent speed and Kevin Riley will be an upgrade over Nate Longshore at quarterback, but in the end Michigan State will win it with defense and Javon Ringer.

LOCKS

I promised myself I would never get in the habit of picking games against the spread. But each week I'll take a look at the lines and if anything jumps out at me I'll let you know. Don't get used to looking at that fancy graphic is all I'm saying...

N.C. State (+12) over South Carolina
(Thursday, 7pm, ESPN)
South Carolina has an excellent defense, there’s no question about that. But at this stage of the season I’m not convinced their offense can even score 12 points.

East Carolina (+10) over Virginia Tech
(Saturday, 11am, ESPN)
Poly only won by 10 at home last year. Tech loses just about their entire starting defense and many key skill players on offense and must travel to Charlotte, NC this year.

Illinois (+8½) over Missouri
(Saturday, 7:30pm, ESPN)
Missouri will probably jump out to a big lead, much the way they did last season in this game. But Ron Zook will make adjustments and Illinois will take this rivalry game down to the wire.

Northern Illinois (+8½) over Minnesota
(Saturday, 6pm)
Minnesota is garbage until they prove to me otherwise. After going 1-11 and losing to Bowling Green and North Dakota State a year ago, I’m not convinced Minnesota can beat a MAC team that returns 18 starters. Even if they do it won’t be by much with that awful defense.