WEEK TWELVE - Top 25 Preview (Part II: Top 10)

#1 Texas Tech is IDLE

Mississippi State @ #2 Alabama
(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)
This game comes down to whether or not Alabama shows up. The fact that the Crimson Tide have lost two in a row to the Croomdawgs means Nick Saban didn’t have to work too hard to get his team’s attention. It will probably still be a hard fought, low scoring game, but I don’t expect Bama to have too much trouble dismissing Mississippi State.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 22, Mississippi State 10

#3 Texas @ Kansas
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
Simply put, this isn’t the same Kansas team that won a BCS bowl game last year. The Jayhawks definitely miss defensive coordinator Bill Young, who took over the DC job at Miami in the offseason. Kansas is giving up a Big XII worst 276.3 passing yards per game, which means Texas quarterback Colt McCoy should be in for yet another big day. The Longhorns will put this one away early and erase all the recent memories of photo finishes in Lawrence.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 42, Kansas 24

South Carolina @ #4 Florida
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
I’ll be honest with you, I have no idea what to expect from this Florida team on a week to week basis. Urban Meyer’s squad has as much athleticism as any team in the nation, but they seem to rely on their speed more than on Xs and Os. That leaves the door open for any opponent they face to sneak out of town with a win (see Ole Miss earlier this season). South Carolina brings a solid defense to The Swamp, highlighted by speedy defensive end Eric Norwood and tackling machine Emanuel Cook (if Cook ever misses a tackle, let me know). But the Gamecock offense is anything but consistent. Steve Spurrier keeps going back and forth between freshman Stephen Garcia and error prone (but eligible) Chris Smelley, and that leads to drastic ebbs in the cohesiveness of the offense. I would say Garcia should be the guy, but I have a feeling Smelley might come up big in this game. South Carolina will keep it close, but I’ll give Florida the nod.
J.Pike’s Pick: Florida 24, South Carolina 18

Indiana @ #5 Penn State
(Saturday, 11 am, Big Ten Network)
After getting knocked out of the national title picture with a loss to Iowa last week, you might think the Nittany Lions would pack it in for the season. But the senior leadership on this team won’t let that happen. Quarterback Darryl Clark has been inconsistent of late, but facing the Big Ten’s worst pass defense should allow him and his three senior receivers to get back on track.
J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 37, Indiana 13

#6 Utah @ San Diego State
(Saturday, 7 pm, The Mtn.)
The clutch comeback win at home over TCU last Thursday night was huge. Now the Utes get to stretch their legs a little bit and get some backups some valuable game experience because San Diego State doesn’t have a chance to compete in this one. Utah was held to 13 points against the stingy Frog defense, but Brian Johnson and company should have no problem putting points on an Aztec defense that has given up at least 35 points in each of the last six games.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 44, San Diego State 7

#7 Oklahoma is IDLE

#8 USC @ Stanford
(Saturday, 6 pm, Versus)
I’ve been calling for it for weeks, so here it is: Stanford will upset USC. Again. I know nobody has forgotten about last season when Jim Harbaugh’s troops marched into the Coleseum and emerged victorious, despite being 42 point underdogs. How did they do it? They played scrappy defense, collecting four sacks and forcing five turnovers. Well, fast forward a year and Stanford is now leading the Pac-10 in sacks. They’ll get to Mark Sanchez and force him to make decisions on the run, which means USC will struggle to score. That opens the door for the surprisingly physical Stanford offense to ride Toby Gerhart and the Pac-10’s second ranked rushing attack to victory. USC has been playing outstanding defense of late, but they haven’t really faced a real challenge during that stretch. Oregon State proved that if you aren’t scared of USC, and you come out and punch them in the mouth, the Trojans will back down. Because there’s no use risking an NFL career for a meaningless college game …
J.Pike’s Pick: Stanford 20, USC 18

#9 Georgia @ Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
My, how the mighty have fallen. Before the season started I circled this game as one of the top five games to watch this year. Auburn was a preseason top 10 team and Georgia started the year at the very top of the polls. Now Georgia is struggling to maintain legitimacy at 8-2 while Auburn wallows in the pit of the SEC at 5-5. This game could be ugly. Auburn is only averaging 13.3 points per game in SEC play, but they can play a little defense when their hearts are in it. Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno’s heart is always in it, and I expect him to carry the Bulldogs this afternoon.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, Auburn 12

#10 Boise State @ Idaho
(Saturday, 4 pm)
It’s a Potato State showdown! Is Boise State ever going to play anybody again? Idaho is one of the worst teams in Division 1A, and there will probably be more Boise fans at the game than Vandals. Boise makes French fries out of Idaho and rolls to 10-0.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 38, Idaho 6

WEEK TWELVE - Preview

Tulane (-5) over UAB
Tulane running back Andre Anderson must be licking his chops. UAB allowed Southern Miss to put 70 points on the board the last time they took the field, and that included a big performance by USM on the ground (463 rushing yards, 4 players over 80 rushing yards). Anderson averages a Conference USA best 123.4 rushing yards per game and he’ll look to improve on that number. I like UAB quarterback Joe Webb, but he simply doesn’t have enough help to keep this game close.

Nebraska (-6½) over Kansas State
The Blackshirts are back! As a result, the Big Red defense will play their best game of the season against the lifeless Wildcats.

Stanford (+22½) over USC
USC has been playing great defense lately, allowing a paltry 13 points over the last five games. That doesn’t mean the Trojans have been pounding people though - quite the contrary as a matter of fact. Disregarding the games against Washington and Washington State (who hasn’t beaten up on those two this year?), USC’s margin of victory in Pac-10 play is an underwhelming 15 points per game. Considering Stanford was able to pull the upset last year in the Coliseum, I have a feeling this game will go down to the wire.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Rutgers (+7½) over South Florida
Texas (-13) over Kansas
New Mexico State (+15) over Fresno State
Oklahoma State (-17½) over Colorado
Utah (-28) over San Diego State
North Carolina (-2½) over Maryland
Texas A&M (+8) over Baylor

WEEK ELEVEN - Bonus Picks

Kansas @ Nebraska
(Saturday, 1:30 pm, FSN PPV)
Quarterback Joe Ganz is mistake-prone. He tends to make bad throws when he is pressured. Kansas is a solid fundamental football team that makes opponents pay for their mistakes. That doesn’t bode well for Nebraska. Neither does the fact that the Jayhawks potent passing attack (312.8 yards per game) matches up favorably with the Huskers porous secondary. Despite the home crowd, Nebraska will fall to 5-5 with a loss here to Kansas.
J.Pike’s Pick: Kansas 34, Nebraska 27

Clemson @ Florida State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN)
I guess this game can no longer be considered “The Bowden Bowl”. But that doesn’t change the fact that Clemson owns a three game winning streak in the series. Interim coach Dabo Swinney seems to have the Tigers playing with a little more emotion lately, and that’s all they’ll need to beat Florida State. Clemson has more talent on defense than the Seminoles, and they’ll turn those guys loose on freshman quarterback Christian Ponder early and often.
J.Pike’s Pick: Clemson 26, Florida State 16

Stanford @ Oregon
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, FSN)
Stanford will prep for their big upset win over USC next week the only way they know how – by losing big to Oregon. Last year Jim Harbaugh’s troops lost to Arizona State 41-3 a week before pulling off the shocker in Southern California, so why should this year be any different? Oregon’s potent ground game (270.7 yards per game) shouldn’t have any problems steamrolling the Stanford defense, which will put the Cardinal exactly where they want to be going into the USC game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oregon 37, Stanford 20

Notre Dame @ Boston College
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN)
Notre Dame stumbled in quadruple overtime against Pitt last week, but that doesn’t change the fact that their passing game is starting to come together. Wide receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd are starting to run down quarterback Jimmy Clausen’s deep passes and turn them into touchdowns. Considering none of the three were on campus prior to last season, the Golden Domers appear to have a bright future on offense. Boston College is a solid team with a solid defense led by linebacker Mike Herzlich. Herzlich makes plays all over the field and will single-handedly wipe out Notre Dame’s running game. But the Eagles don’t have enough players in the secondary to slow down that aerial assault.
J.Pike’s Pick: Notre Dame 31, Boston College 25

Gameday Commentary - 5:30 pm

*Kansas State is a bad team. There are no fundamentals at all; nobody on defense can tackle; there are breakdowns in the special teams; and worst of all, the team has no confidence. I feel bad for the players in this situation. The coaching staff is clueless from and X's & O's standpoint, and on top of that, Ron Prince made them run laps in the middle of the night when they got back from a road loss against Louisville a couple weeks ago. Ron Prince looks like he's in his final season as head coach in Manhattan.

*I still like Jim Harbaugh at Stanford. He's a fiery head coach who doesn't let his team quit. Even when his team trailed 28-7 in the third quarter, the Cardinal never quit and Harbaugh was fighting for calls. Stanford ended up cutting the lead to 28-21 and had the ball with a chance to tie.

*I have to give Chris Smelley some credit. He played a great game today in South Carolina's win over Ole Miss.

*Kentucky is giving Alabama all they can handle. Alabama has been great this year, and the defense is playing up to those standards today. But Kentucky is laying the blue print for how to stop the Crimson Tide offense. John Parker Wilson hasn't been a big part of the conservative game plan, but he's not doing his part. Wilson has struggled mightily on throws down the field. Also, kicker Leigh Tiffin has been awful today.

*I've said it once, I'll say it again: I'm not sure there's a quarterback in the country with a stronger arm than Juice Williams.

*Michigan quarterback Steven Threet is coming around. He looked very average early in the season, but his accuracy has improved, particularly on the deep throws that you have to complete to keep defenses from loading up the box.

*Tommy Tuberville is taking his team back! After putting up with Tony Franklin's ridiculous spread offense for the first several weeks (and getting poor results), Tuberville clearly straightened things out this week. The first few drives included more non-shotgun formations than Auburn has run all season. That allowed them to take advantage of Ben Tate's strengths and build a 13-0 lead. Also, Auburn's defense is as good as it has ever been. If the offense keeps playing REAL football (as opposed to that shotgun every play/sideways running nonsense Franklin has been running all year), Auburn is a team that can have legit national title dreams.

*The discovery of the day: Miami WR/KR Travis Benjamin. The freshman has incredible speed and agility and has played a huge role in getting Miami back in the game in the second half against Florida State. Keep an eye on this kid because he'll be making some big plays this year and beyond.

Week Three Preview

Iowa State (+13) over Iowa
This rivalry has produced some very close games recently. Both schools are 2-0 this season, and Iowa has won their two contests by a combined score of 88-3. Don’t let that fool you though – Iowa’s big wins came against Maine and Florida International. Iowa State is a team on the rise with Gene Chizik at the helm, and he has an impressive quarterback in Austin Arnaud. The Cyclones will keep this game close and have a good shot at winning the game outright.

Baylor (+2½) over Washington State
Baylor is bad, but Washington State might be worse. Coming off a 66-3 loss at the hands of Cal, the Cougars must travel to Waco to face an offense that seems be gaining their footing in Art Briles’ new offense. Baylor will pick up the first meaningful win of the Briles era in this one.

Central Michigan (-3½) over Ohio
Don’t be fooled by Ohio’s gutsy performance against Ohio State last weekend. They still don’t stand much of a chance against MAC powerhouse Central Michigan. QB Dan LeFevour will show the Buckeyes how to move the ball against Frank Solich’s Bobcats.

UCLA (+9) over BYU
I’m not sure how BYU is favored by 9 points in this game. UCLA plays great defense and will get after Max Hall all day long. That will keep the game close enough for UCLA’s offense, hobbled by injuries, to sneak out with the win.

Southern Miss (+1½) over Arkansas State
Arkansas State has produced two “whoa” moments already this year. In week one they beat Texas A&M in College Station, and last week they scored 83 points in a win over Texas Southern. But Southern Miss still has the overall talent edge with running back Damion Fletcher and tight end Shawn Nelson. USM wins this one outright.

Stanford (+12) over TCU
This was a tight contest last year, and that was only Jim Harbaugh’s first season. Stanford is playing even more consistent football this season and they’ve already got two conference games under their belt. That early season experience gives the Cardinal a slight edge over TCU so if they don’t win outright, they’ll definitely keep it within 12.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to qualify them as “Locks":
Illinois (-24½) over Louisiana-Lafayette
Oregon (-7½) over Purdue
Penn State (-26½) over Syracuse
Michigan (Pick’em) over Notre Dame
Georgia Tech (+7) over Virginia Tech
Western Michigan (-8) over Idaho
Mississippi State (+10½) over Auburn
Kentucky (-16½) over Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma (-20) over Washington
Utah (-24½) over Utah State

Week Three Preview

UPSET WATCH

#1 Georgia @ South Carolina
Why it could happen: Because it happened last year. South Carolina’s defense was able to keep Georgia out of the end zone, and they are loaded on that side of the ball this year.
Why it won’t happen: Georgia is a much better team now than the one that lost to USC a year ago. Even though there are mostly the same faces, this team grew up after that loss, and Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford are now two of the best in the country.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, South Carolina 13

Iowa State @ Iowa
Why it could happen: It’s a rivalry game and anything can happen. On top of that, Iowa State is a team on the rise. Gene Chizik has the offense headed in the right direction and freshman quarterback Austin Arnaud is more than capable of leading an upset victory.
Why it won’t happen: The Iowa defense isn’t as good as their stats so far this year, but they’re good enough. The Hawkeyes seem to be playing better as a team this year, and their offensive line finally seems up to Kirk Ferentz standards. That will give Iowa the ability to control the ball and the clock, which will ultimately be the key to victory.
J.Pike’s Pick: Iowa 27, Iowa State 24

UPSET WARNING

#9 Auburn @ Mississippi State
Why it will happen: Mississippi State will keep the turnovers to a minimum and play outstanding defense. The new Auburn offense will learn a lesson about abandoning physical football. Good luck with that sideways running game against the speedy Bulldogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Mississippi State 15, Auburn 12

Stanford @ TCU
Why it will happen: TCU is always sketchy when they are supposed to be good. Stanford on the other hand has been playing over their heads ever since Jim Harbaugh took the job. Running back Toby Gerhart will prove you can run the ball against the usually stout TCU defense and Stanford will out-heart the Horned Frogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Stanford, 27, TCU 24

Pac-10 Preview

Favorite: USC

No surprise here. Pete Carroll has won the last six conference crowns at SC, and this year looks no different. The gap is closing however, so expect the Trojans to lose at least one or two conference games again this year.

Sleeper: Oregon
If all the pieces come together, the Ducks could sneak away with the Pac-10 title. All their tough conference games are on the road though (USC, Arizona State, Cal, Oregon State), so the will have to be really good to win it. But the talent is there, and the confidence is building after the Ducks upset USC last year.

On the Rise: Stanford
Call me crazy but I'm buying into Jim Harbaugh. He's got genuine enthusiasm (as opposed to, say, Mike Stoops) and an infectious, never-say-die attitude. How else do you explain the Cardinal knocking off 41-point favorite USC on their home field a year ago? Harbaugh will pull off another big upset this year and perhaps guide Stanford to their first bowl game since 2001.

Declining: Washington State
There's no doubt about it - Paul Wulff inherited a sinking ship. The Cougars roster has dwindled well below the 85-scholarship limit to a point where depth is a serious issue. Wulff may end up being a good hire in the long run, but Wazzu will have to hit bottom first.

PROJECTED STANDINGS & RECORDS

1. USC	10-2 (8-1 conference)
2. Arizona State	9-3 (7-2)
3. Oregon	9-3 (6-3)
4. California	7-5 (5-4)
5. Oregon State	6-6 (5-4)
6. UCLA	6-6 (5-4)
7. Stanford	6-6 (4-5)
8. Arizona	4-8 (2-7)
9. Washington	3-9 (2-7)
10. Washington State	3-10 (1-8)

PLAYERS OF THE YEAR

Offense: Sammie Stroughter (WR, Oregon State)
Defense: Rey Maualuga (LB, USC)
Special Teams: Kai Forbath (K, UCLA)

NATIONAL AWARDS CANDIDATES
Jahvid Best (RB, Cal) - Sayers
Jairus Byrd (CB, Ore) - Deion
Patrick Chung (S, Ore) - Arrington, Deion
Kai Forbath (K, UCLA) - Sproles/Sauerbrun
Everson Griffen (DE, USC) - Arrington
Jake Locker (QB, Wash) - Frazier
Rey Maualuga (LB, USC) - Arrington
Joe McKnight (RB, USC) - Sayers
Sammie Stroughter (WR, OrSt) - Bo Jackson, Sproles/Sauerbrun
Walter Thurmond (CB, Ore) - Deion
Thomas Weber (K, ASU) - Sproles/Sauerbrun
Gold Wrenches:
USC defensive line
Oregon offensive line
UCLA defensive line