Conference USA Preview

Now that The Greatest Tournament of All Time has reached its epic conclusion and 2001 Miami has been crowned “Greatest College Football Team of All Time”, it’s time to get the preseason predictions for 2009 kicked off. I’ll start by posting my conference previews, and follow that up with my preseason Top 50 rankings. First up: Conference USA.Projected Records & Standings

East Division

1. EAST CAROLINA      10-2  (7-1)
2. SOUTHERN MISS       7-5  (5-3)
3. MEMPHIS             6-6  (4-4)
4. MARSHALL            6-6  (4-4)
5. CENTRAL FLORIDA     4-8  (2-6)
6. UAB                 3-9  (2-6)

West Division

1. HOUSTON             9-3  (7-1)
2. UTEP                7-5  (5-3)
3. TULSA               7-5  (5-3)
4. RICE                5-7  (4-4)
5. TULANE              4-8  (2-6)
6. SMU                 2-10 (1-7)

East Champion: EAST CAROLINA

When QB Patrick Pinkney was granted a sixth year medical redshirt it was the icing on the cake for Skip Holtz’s Pirates. ECU already had by far the best offensive and defensive lines in the conference, so to retain a veteran quarterback with the multitude of skills Pinkney has makes this an easy pick. Southern Miss is a popular choice to win the East Division, but ECU is the more veteran team. After sharpening their teeth in upsets of Virginia Tech and West Virginia a year ago, the Pirates might be on the verge of a Boise State-type breakout season.

West Champion: HOUSTON

Coach Kevin Sumlin made sure the Cougars didn’t skip a beat after Art Briles bolted for Baylor. The return of QB Case Keenum – this year’s version of Chase Clement – means Houston will probably score a billion points again. With Tulsa apparently taking a small step back, the door is wide open for Sumlin’s Cougs to claim the West crown.

Question the Hype: SMU

June Jones won at Hawaii, but to assume his “offense” would automatically light up the scoreboard in Dallas is absurd. The Mustangs have a long way to go to get back to respectability – they haven’t been to a bowl game since 1984 – and I don’t believe June Jones and his scheme can perform a miracle in only the second year of his tenure.

Could Surprise: MEMPHIS

Memphis is a team to look out for because of the talent on the offensive side of the ball. Not only do they return C-USA’s leading rusher (Curtis Steele) and tallest receiving corps (6’-8” Carlos Singleton and 6’-4” Duke Calhoun), the Tigers also benefit from the addition of Wisconsin transfer RB Lance Smith. QB Arkelon Hall has plenty of weapons at his disposal, so if he can improve his consistency this is a team that could compete for the East Division championship.

Faulk Trophy Candidates:
CB-Brandon Brinkley, Houston
WR-DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss
FS-Van Eskridge, East Carolina
RB-Damion Fletcher, Southern Miss
WR/KR-Damaris Johnson, Tulsa
QB-Case Keenum, Houston
RB/KR-Darius Marshall, Marshall
DE-Albert McClellan, Marshall
QB-Patrick Pinkney, East Carolina
WR-Carlos Singleton, Memphis
TE-Cody Slate, Marshall
QB-Trevor Vittatoe, UTEP
QB-Joe Webb, UAB
DE-C.J. Wilson, East Carolina

WEEK NINE - Preview

There is plenty of intrigue in the schedule this week with four matchups featuring top 16 teams. There is also upset potential all over as 13 top 25 teams must play away from home. But here are three games that aren’t on the national radar that have interesting storylines as well.

SMU @ Navy
This is quite the study in contrasting styles. New SMU head coach June Jones obviously likes to let it fly as he proved so often as the architect of Hawaii’s high flying offense the last several years. Navy on the other hand will run the triple option on first, second, AND third down until you stop them. Then they’ll run some more. Jones isn’t earning his $2 million a year yet, and I’m not sure he ever will. Go with the ground game in this one, even if Navy quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada Nahasapeemapetilon has to miss another game due to his lingering hamstring injury. Running back Shun White (averaging 110 yards per game) will pick up the slack.
J.Pike’s Pick: Navy 30, SMU 20

Ole Miss @ Arkansas
The Nutt Bowl! Despite a successful 8-4 regular season capped by a win over eventual national champion LSU, Houston Nutt was unceremoniously run out of Fayetteville. Arkansas fans have been rewarded with a head coach known more for his disloyalty than his coaching ability, a team that won’t make a bowl game, and a defense that is often allergic to tackling - maybe they should bring in that referee from the South Carolina/LSU game last week! [LINK] That bodes well for Dexter McCluster, the speedy all-purpose threat who will get the ball a number of different ways in this ballgame, including direct snaps at quarterback. Rising freshman running back Enrique Davis should also take advantage of the generous Hogs defense. And keep your eye on Ole Miss defensive end Greg Hardy – he’s an underrated talent that you might know more about if he hadn’t missed so much time early this year due to injury.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ole Miss 28, Arkansas 20

Notre Dame @ Washington
Tyrone Willingham gets to host his former team for what is looking more and more like the last time. At 0-6, the entire state of Washington has basically signed off on his termination at the end of the season. I’m not sure I totally agree with that move, but his record definitely doesn’t help him out. Even without quarterback Jake Locker I still think Washington has some decent young players on the roster, and don’t forget they took BYU down to the wire earlier this year. Notre Dame and Jimmy Clausen seem to finally be growing up, so they should be able to pull out a win in Seattle. But it will be tougher than you might expect.
J.Pike’s Pick: Notre Dame 33, Washington 27

WEEK SEVEN - Locks

Syracuse (+23½) over West Virginia
Syracuse is bad, but West Virginia hasn’t shown the ability to beat anybody by more than three touchdowns this year. With Pat White suffering through nagging injuries, I don’t expect that pattern to change.

Utah (-23) over Wyoming
Utah is playing good football right now and Wyoming simply is not. The Cowboys aren’t even averaging double digits in points this season (by far the worst in the nation), so a shutout by the strong Utah defense is more than possible – it’s probable. Utah quarterback Brian Johnson can easily manufacture at least 30 against this group.

Colorado State (+15½) over TCU
This is the kind of game that seems to trip up TCU just about every year. The Horned Frogs are favored on the road against a team with a new coach that is improving every week. Not only do I think Colorado State covers this large spread, I think they have an excellent shot at winning outright.

Louisiana-Lafayette (-21) over North Texas High
If I actually put money on these bets, I would have gotten rich betting against North Texas High School this season. Louisiana-Lafayette has the nation’s top rushing offense and Tyrell Fenroy nearly topped the 300-yard mark a week ago against Louisiana-Monroe! Look for the Ragin’ Cajuns to to approach 500 yards rushing and completely control the clock in this game.

Tulsa (-25) over SMU
This seems to be the week where I capitalize on the big spreads. Tulsa is tops in the nation averaging 56.4 points per game. June Jones is struggling to get his passing attack going as the Mustangs sit on a 1-5 record averaging only 22 points per game. Tulsa wins big.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Texas (+7) over Oklahoma
Illinois (-12½) over Minnesota
Arizona State (+28) over USC
Buffalo (-1) over Western Michigan
Miami (-16½) over Central Florida
Arizona (-6½) over Stanford
Iowa State (+4½) over Baylor
San Jose State (-14) over Utah State
Missouri (-14) over Oklahoma State
UTEP (-4) over Tulane

News & Notes

* Wyoming head coach Joe Glenn named JC transfer Dax Crum the starting quarterback. That leaves Karsten Sween, who started for the Cowboys the past two seasons, relegated to backup duty. Which begs the question: what the hell kind of name is “Dax Crum”?

* USC’s Matt Sanchez and Joe McKnight each suffered minor injuries in practice. Both are expected to be fine for the regular season, but this offense has been slipping recently, and these are two first time starters who could use the repetitions to gel with the rest of the offense.

An interesting side note to the Sanchez injury – redshirt freshman Aaron Corp is taking the snaps with the first team offense in his place instead of the highly touted Mitch Mustain. I’m guessing Pete Carroll is going to receive an angry call from Momma Mustain soon.

* Virginia Tech lost another wide receiver when Frank Beamer suspended Zach Luckett from the team indefinitely. The Hokies top four receivers from last season all graduated and the top three heading into ‘08 have all been lost due to injury or suspension. Now Poly must rely on true freshmen to get the job done. Tyrod Taylor better be ready to take over the QB job full time because he’s the only playmaker left on this depleted offense.

* Colorado named Demetrius Sumler the starting running back ahead of stud true freshman Darrell Scott. Sumler is a fine player, so all this means is the Buffs will have excellent depth in the running game.

* Tennessee tight end Brandon Warren has been cleared to play this season after transferring from Florida State. Two years ago Warren was one of the most impressive freshmen in the country, and he’ll make an immediate impact at Tennessee.

This news couldn’t come at a better time for the Vols either. After losing tight ends Chris Brown and Brad Cottam to the NFL draft, projected starter Jeff Cottam injured his knee in practice and will be miss the first half of the season.

* Purdue running back Jaycen Taylor tore up his knee and will miss the 2008 season. Kory Sheets will take over full time, but he doesn’t have quite the same ability Taylor does.

* SMU senior quarterback Justin Willis has been demoted to third string on new head coach June Jones’ depth chart behind somebody called Bo Levi Mitchell. Willis has started for the Mustangs the past three years so the move comes as a surprise.

* As expected, UCLA has named Kevin Craft the starting quarterback. Craft, a transfer from San Diego State, got the nod in large part because Ben Olson and Patrick Cowan are the two most injury-prone players to ever play major college football. But Craft can play a little bit too, so expect him to have a fine season playing for Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow.

* Ralph Friedgen has changed his starting quarterback again. Chris Turner, who played well in spots last season, has been replaced in the lineup by injury-plagued Jordan Steffy. Josh Portis, a transfer from Florida, is expected to see action as well. Friedgen said Portis has as much athleticism as any player he’s ever coached, so expect him to contribute a highlight reel play at some point this year.

* In another quarterback competition that went as expected, Cal has named Kevin Riley the starter over Nate Longshore. Long”spare” has been playing mediocre football for far too long, and Riley proved in the Bears’ bowl win over Air Force that he has what it takes to succeed in Jeff Tedford’s offense.

* Oregon quarterback Nate Costa suffered an injury to the same knee that caused him to miss all of last season. As of now the severity of the injury is unknown, but I have a hunch that Justin Roper is warming up in the bullpen already. Get your panic buttons ready Duck fans.

* Miami has suspended projected starting quarterback Robert Marve for the season opener against Charleston Southern. That means true freshman Jacory Harris will have the first shot at filling the ballerina slippers of Kirby Freeman and Kyle Wright.

* Gene Chizik has chosen a winner in the heated quarterback competition at Iowa State. Austen Arnaud will get first crack at the job. Phillip Bates will see the field though - he played wide receiver last season and has too much athleticism to keep on the sidelines.

* N.C. State redshirt freshman Russell Wilson was tabbed by head coach Tom O’Brien as the starter for the Thursday night opener against South Carolina. Wilson beat out incumbent Daniel Evans, Nebraska transfer Harrison Beck, and Justin Burke, who is transfering to Louisville.

* Notre Dame tight end Mike Ragone tore up his knee and will sit out the season. The Domers were already thin at tight end, so it will be up to incoming freshmen to handle an important position in Charlie Weis’ offense.