JP25 - Final 2008 Top 25

This was one of the most difficult set of rankings I've ever had the pleasure of filling out. It is the final poll of the 2008 season, but more importantly, I'll have a hand in crowning the first official Pikes Picks National Champion.

In my mind, the top four teams (Florida, Texas, Utah, USC) could all beat each other on any given day. So I tried to look at each of their seasons as a whole and give the top spot to the most deserving candidate.

I considered Texas to be the best team throughout most of the latter part of the season, and I voted them number one in my final regular season poll. The Longhorns beat Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, but weren't National Championship-sharp throughout most of the game. However, they showed the heart and the ability to answer in the clutch that led me to believe they could beat any other team in the country prior to bowl season.

Florida won the BCS National Title game, but we all know (now) their opponent was a sham. Worse still, their opponent abandoned the game plan that got them to the game in the first place and then quit in the fourth quarter, robbing all of us from truly judging just how good Florida is. I still think the Gators have flaws in terms of the Xs and Os (especially on offense), but I really admire the passion with which they play in all three phases of the game.

USC obviously has the hype on their side. The Trojans blasted a Penn State team I held in high regard in the Rose Bowl, which gives them high marks in the "what have you done for me lately" category. They are also a fantastically talented team with the ability to shut down any offense they face. However, I don't feel like USC played at as high a level from week to week during the season as Texas and Florida did, and for that I discarded them from the #1 discussion.

Utah is the wild card. Thanks to the Mountain West Conference's terrible television contract it was difficult to see much of Utah this season. However, the Utes finished as the only undefeated team, and, in my opinion, played a strong enough schedule that they should be considered for the top spot. They played Michigan in the Big House to open the season (who knew how bad a season the Wolverines would be?), beat Oregon State the week after the Beavers knocked off mighty USC, and finished the season by beating three top 25 teams (TCU, BYU, Alabama) in their final four games. That's a tougher schedule than at least half the teams in BCS conferences had to play this season. Above all though, from what I DID see from the Utes, I like the way they play football.

After considering all the facts, here are my final rankings for 2008:

1. Florida	3	13-1
2. Texas	1	12-1
3. Utah	7	13-0
4. USC	5	12-1
5. Oklahoma	2	12-2
6. Alabama	4	12-2
7. Penn State	6	11-2
8. TCU	11	11-2
9. Ohio State	9	10-3
10. Georgia	15	10-3
11. Texas Tech	8	11-2
12. Boise State	12	12-1
13. Oregon	19	10-3
14. Virginia Tech	13	10-4
15. Oklahoma State	10	9-4
16. Oregon State	24	9-4
17. Cincinnati	16	11-3
18. California	17	9-4
19. Michigan State	20	9-4
20. Ole Miss	23	9-4
21. Pittsburgh	21	9-4
22. Missouri	22	10-4
23. West Virginia	--	9-4
24. Nebraska	25	9-4
25. Georgia Tech	14	9-4

Others Receiving Consideration:
Boston College (9-5), Florida State (9-4), LSU (8-5), Maryland (8-5), North Carolina (8-5), BYU (10-3), Northwestern (9-4), Iowa (9-4), Kansas (8-5), Rice (10-3)

Dropped Out:
Boston College (18)

J.Pike's Ballot: Faulk Trophy

Not much doubt here. I've been touting Brian Johnson for this award all season, and he did nothing to persuade me otherwise. TCU's Jerry Hughes was easily the best defensive player not in a BCS conference, as evidenced by his 14 sacks. But Johnson was able to lead his team to a perfect 12-0 record.

Chase Clement is a personal favorite of mine. He reminds me a lot of Colt McCoy and I think he deserved a vote.

Brian Johnson
(Senior QB, Utah)

Faulk Trophy Finalists

MARSHALL FAULK TROPHY

Most awards tend to go to players from the big time conferences. The players of the SEC and Big XII have plenty of awards to compete for, so we created an award that will go to the best player in the nation NOT in a BCS conference. The award is named for the great Marshall Faulk of San Diego State fame.

I narrowed down my list of finalists to five. All are deserving, but only one will be awarded the Marshall Faulk Trophy.

J.Pike's Finalists

JOE BURNETT
(Senior CB, Central Florida)
Key Stats
Defense: 44 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss;
4 interceptions (103 return yards), 11 passes broken up;
Special Teams: 1 blocked kick;
Kick Returns: 745 yards, 28.7 avg, 2 td;
Punt Returns: 378 yards, 14.5 avg
An explosive playmaker who is a threat to score any time he gets his hands on the ball

CHASE CLEMENT
(Senior QB, Rice)
Key Stats
Passing: 3,812 yards, 41 td, 7 int;
66.4 completion percentage;
317.7 yards per game;
Rushing: 621 yards, 11 td
51.8 yards per game;
369.5 all purpose yards per game, 52 total tds
A poor man's Colt McCoy

NATE DAVIS
(Junior QB, Ball State)
Key Stats
Passing: 3,446 yards, 26 td;
265.1 yards per game;
Rushing: 277 yards, 4 td;
286.4 yards total offense per game;
A gutty, talented quarterback who led the Cardinals to a 12-1 record


JERRY HUGHES
(Junior DE, TCU)
Key Stats
48 tackles;
14 sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss;
2 interceptions (1 returned for touchdown);
6 forced fumbles, 3 fumbles recovered;
Guided one of the best defenses in the nation;
Harassed quarterbacks all season


BRIAN JOHNSON
(Senior QB, Utah)
Key Stats
Passing: 2,636 yards, 24 td;
68.3 completion percentage;
219.7 yards per game;
Led Utah to a perfect 12-0 regular season thanks to his steady play;;
The favorite for the Faulk Award most of the season

Sproles/Sauerbrun Award Finalists

SPROLES/SAUERBRUN AWARD

The Sproles/Sauerbrun Award was founded to recognize excellence in special teams. It gets its name from Kansas State return man Darren Sproles and legendary West Virginia punter Todd Sauerbrun. The award can be given to a kicker, a punter, a return man, or even a player that displays a special ability to run down and make hits on kick coverage.

This award has the longest list of finalists due to its all-inclusive criteria, but all eight of the following candidates warrant being considered finalists.

J.Pike's Finalists

JOE BURNETT
(Senior KR/PR, Central Florida)
Key Stats
KR: 26 returns for 745 yards;
28.7 avg, 2 td (long 91);
PR: 26 returns for 378 yards;
14.5 avg, long of 36;
1,123 total return yards, 2 touchdowns


MARDY GILYARD
(Junior KR, Cincinnati)
Key Stats
KR: 32 returns for 897 yards;
28.0 avg, 2 td (long 100);
Huge game against Oklahoma - 5 returns for 246 yards, 1 td



BRANDON JAMES
(Junior PR/KR, Florida)
Key Stats
PR: 36 returns for 509 yards;
14.1 avg, 2 td (long 78);
KR: 29 returns for 687 yards;
23.7 avg, long of 52;
1,196 total return yards, 2 touchdowns


A.J. JEFFERSON
(Junior KR, Fresno State)
Key Stats
KR: 31 returns for 908 yards;
29.3 avg, 1 td (long 92);
One of Fresno's main scoring threats




JEREMY MACLIN
(Sophomore KR/PR, Missouri)
Key Stats
KR: 41 returns for 987 yards;
24.1 avg, 1 td (long 99);
PR: 19 returns for 188 yards;
9.9 avg, long of 46;
Excellent speed - a threat to score every time he touches the ball;
1,175 total return yards, 1 touchdown

JACOB RICHARDSON
(Senior P, Miami-OH)
Key Stats
52 punts, 45.4 avg (4th nationally);
17 punts of 50+ yards, long of 74;
18 punts inside 20 yard line;
6 fair catches, only 7 touchbacks



LOUIE SAKODA
(Senior K/P, Utah)
Key Stats
115 total points (7th nationally);
21/23 FGs, 52/53 XPTs;
8/10 FGs over 40 yards, long of 53;
Hit game winning field goal on last play against Oregon State;
50 punts, 41.7 avg, long of 81;
21 punts inside 20 yard line;
16 fair catches, only 9 touchbacks

DERRICK WILLIAMS
(Senior KR/PR, Penn State)
Key Stats
KR: 18 returns for 486 yards;
27.0 avg, 2 td (long 94);
PR: 18 returns for 169 yards;
9.4 avg, 1 td (long 63);
655 total return yards, 3 touchdowns;
Averaged one touchdown every 12 returns


J.Pike's Honorable Mention

BRANDON TATE
(Senior PR/KR, North Carolina)
Key Stats
PR: 7 returns for 158 yards;
22.6 avg, 1 td (long 82);
KR: 11 returns for 305 yards;
27.7 avg, long of 56
Tate was well on his way to a fantastic senior season when he tore up his knee in the sixth game of the season. Although he isn't technically considered a finalist for the Sproles/Sauerbrun Award, his play through six games warrants at least a mention here because he was one of the favorites to win the award at the time of his injury.

WEEK THIRTEEN - Top 25 Preview (Part II: Top 10)

#1 Alabama is IDLE

#2 Texas Tech at #7 Oklahoma
(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
If this game had been played a week ago it would have been a no-brainer for me. Texas Tech is playing lights out, and honestly, they have been a more impressive team on both sides of the ball than Oklahoma in 2008. Tech brought unmatched fire and desire to their play in the trenches, and Mike Leach's commitment to the running game has given opposing defenses something to think about.

BUT, the week off might have given the Red Raiders too much time to think about their success. Plus, will leaving the friendly confines of Lubbock make all those holding calls magically reappear? Despite being one of the most penalized teams in the Big XII, they seemed to get away with a lot in those two big games against Texas and Oklahoma State.

So how does Oklahoma win this game? Sam Bradford and Gerald McCoy. Bradford will keep up his remarkably consistent high level of play if the Sooner O-Line can keep his shirt clean. Gerald McCoy, one of the best defensive tackles in the nation, will have the exact opposite effect on Graham Harrell.

Oklahoma will jump out to their usual fast start and build a big first half lead, but don't ever count the Red Raiders out. They'll mount a comeback, but come up just short. If the Sooners win, get ready for the national media to go crazy giving them more credit than they deserve.
J.Pike's Pick: Oklahoma 34, Texas Tech 31

The Citadel at #3 Florida
(Saturday, 12:30 pm, Sun Sports PPV)
Gotta love the way these SEC teams schedule. This might end up backfiring on the Gators actually. If the starters play past the first quarter in this game, I think it will kill the momentum they have built up over the last several weeks. Get those backups in early and treat this game like an off week or risk losing your feel for playing against the speed of the SEC.
J.Pike's Pick: Florida 58, The Citadel 7

#4 Texas is IDLE

#5 USC is IDLE

#6 Georgia is IDLE

24 BYU at #8 Utah
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
The Holy War should be a good one this year. BYU has a potentially explosive offense, but will they be able to move the ball against Paul Kruger, Stevenson Sylvester, and the Utah defense? I don't think so. Utah quarterback Brian Johnson will continue the Utes magical season with another solid day, but kicker Louie Sakoda will be the hero.
J.Pike's Pick: Utah 22, BYU 16

#13 Michigan State at #9 Penn State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
This will be a good old fashioned Big Ten game in the cold. Expect three yards and several clouds of dust because both teams will rely on their running backs to get things done. Penn State is the better team defensively, and I think they'll be able to slow down Javon Ringer.
J.Pike's Pick: Penn State 23, Michigan State 13

Michigan at #10 Ohio State
(Saturday, 11 am, ABC)
Don't get caught up in all the blowout talk. Ohio State is good, and they'll win this game, but that defense is possibly the most overrated unit in the nation. They have some solid players, but there isn't enough speed on that side of the ball to compete on a national level. Michigan has a good enough defense to keep the score down, and I won't be surprised if the Wolverines actually have a chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter.
J.Pike's Pick: Ohio State 20, Michigan 16

WEEK TWELVE - Top 25 Preview (Part II: Top 10)

#1 Texas Tech is IDLE

Mississippi State @ #2 Alabama
(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)
This game comes down to whether or not Alabama shows up. The fact that the Crimson Tide have lost two in a row to the Croomdawgs means Nick Saban didn’t have to work too hard to get his team’s attention. It will probably still be a hard fought, low scoring game, but I don’t expect Bama to have too much trouble dismissing Mississippi State.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 22, Mississippi State 10

#3 Texas @ Kansas
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
Simply put, this isn’t the same Kansas team that won a BCS bowl game last year. The Jayhawks definitely miss defensive coordinator Bill Young, who took over the DC job at Miami in the offseason. Kansas is giving up a Big XII worst 276.3 passing yards per game, which means Texas quarterback Colt McCoy should be in for yet another big day. The Longhorns will put this one away early and erase all the recent memories of photo finishes in Lawrence.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 42, Kansas 24

South Carolina @ #4 Florida
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
I’ll be honest with you, I have no idea what to expect from this Florida team on a week to week basis. Urban Meyer’s squad has as much athleticism as any team in the nation, but they seem to rely on their speed more than on Xs and Os. That leaves the door open for any opponent they face to sneak out of town with a win (see Ole Miss earlier this season). South Carolina brings a solid defense to The Swamp, highlighted by speedy defensive end Eric Norwood and tackling machine Emanuel Cook (if Cook ever misses a tackle, let me know). But the Gamecock offense is anything but consistent. Steve Spurrier keeps going back and forth between freshman Stephen Garcia and error prone (but eligible) Chris Smelley, and that leads to drastic ebbs in the cohesiveness of the offense. I would say Garcia should be the guy, but I have a feeling Smelley might come up big in this game. South Carolina will keep it close, but I’ll give Florida the nod.
J.Pike’s Pick: Florida 24, South Carolina 18

Indiana @ #5 Penn State
(Saturday, 11 am, Big Ten Network)
After getting knocked out of the national title picture with a loss to Iowa last week, you might think the Nittany Lions would pack it in for the season. But the senior leadership on this team won’t let that happen. Quarterback Darryl Clark has been inconsistent of late, but facing the Big Ten’s worst pass defense should allow him and his three senior receivers to get back on track.
J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 37, Indiana 13

#6 Utah @ San Diego State
(Saturday, 7 pm, The Mtn.)
The clutch comeback win at home over TCU last Thursday night was huge. Now the Utes get to stretch their legs a little bit and get some backups some valuable game experience because San Diego State doesn’t have a chance to compete in this one. Utah was held to 13 points against the stingy Frog defense, but Brian Johnson and company should have no problem putting points on an Aztec defense that has given up at least 35 points in each of the last six games.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 44, San Diego State 7

#7 Oklahoma is IDLE

#8 USC @ Stanford
(Saturday, 6 pm, Versus)
I’ve been calling for it for weeks, so here it is: Stanford will upset USC. Again. I know nobody has forgotten about last season when Jim Harbaugh’s troops marched into the Coleseum and emerged victorious, despite being 42 point underdogs. How did they do it? They played scrappy defense, collecting four sacks and forcing five turnovers. Well, fast forward a year and Stanford is now leading the Pac-10 in sacks. They’ll get to Mark Sanchez and force him to make decisions on the run, which means USC will struggle to score. That opens the door for the surprisingly physical Stanford offense to ride Toby Gerhart and the Pac-10’s second ranked rushing attack to victory. USC has been playing outstanding defense of late, but they haven’t really faced a real challenge during that stretch. Oregon State proved that if you aren’t scared of USC, and you come out and punch them in the mouth, the Trojans will back down. Because there’s no use risking an NFL career for a meaningless college game …
J.Pike’s Pick: Stanford 20, USC 18

#9 Georgia @ Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
My, how the mighty have fallen. Before the season started I circled this game as one of the top five games to watch this year. Auburn was a preseason top 10 team and Georgia started the year at the very top of the polls. Now Georgia is struggling to maintain legitimacy at 8-2 while Auburn wallows in the pit of the SEC at 5-5. This game could be ugly. Auburn is only averaging 13.3 points per game in SEC play, but they can play a little defense when their hearts are in it. Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno’s heart is always in it, and I expect him to carry the Bulldogs this afternoon.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, Auburn 12

#10 Boise State @ Idaho
(Saturday, 4 pm)
It’s a Potato State showdown! Is Boise State ever going to play anybody again? Idaho is one of the worst teams in Division 1A, and there will probably be more Boise fans at the game than Vandals. Boise makes French fries out of Idaho and rolls to 10-0.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 38, Idaho 6

WEEK ELEVEN - Thursday Night Games

#22 Maryland @ Virginia Tech

(Thursday, 6:30 pm, ESPN)
Maryland is the ultimate Dr. Jeckyl/Mr. Hyde team. They can get beat by Middle Tennessee one week and then bounce back to destroy teams like Cal and Clemson all in the span of a month. Tonight they travel to Blacksburg where Virginia Tech is traditionally one of the stronger Thursday night teams. Tyrod Taylor still isn't there yet as a quarterback, but he's dangerous enough to lead the Hokies to some points. Maryland on the other hand have speedy running back Da'Rel Scott to lean on. Will he be able to do enough against a young, improving Bud Foster defense? I'll give the edge to the Hokies due to their defense and the home crowd.
J.Pike's Pick: Virginia Tech 28, Maryland 24

---------------

#13 TCU @ #10 Utah
(Thursday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
The Mountain West takes center stage tonight (on CBS College Sports??) as the league's top two teams square off. The winner not only has a leg up on winning the conference title - a berth in a BCS bowl might also be at stake.

If you like good defenses, this is the game for you. TCU and Utah are the best defensive teams in a conference that knows a thing or two about defense. They are also both in the top 10 nationally in total yards allowed per game.

Utah is led up front by defensive end Paul Kruger. The sophomore is fourth on the team in tackles and has piled up 6.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss. It doesn't end there for the Utes. Linebacker Stevenson Sylvester and defensive end Koa Misi are active players who will each contend for All-League honors at the end of the season. And don't forget about the rangy Sean Smith. At 6-foot-3, Smith is one of the taller cornerbacks in the nation, and he has tremendous athleticism to go along with it.

TCU is led defensively by the talented Jerry Hughes. TCU has traditionally featured a pass rushing menace at defensive end and Hughes is no exception. In fact, with 14 sacks and 5 forced fumbles, Hughes might be one of the best quarterback harrassers the Frogs have ever had.

Like Utah, TCU swarms to the ball and gang tackles as well as anybody. Linebacker Jason Phillips is often leading that swarm. Phillips leads the Frogs with 60 tackles so expect to see him all over the field tonight.

With two great defenses, the difference in the game will come down to which offense is able to pick up first downs and keep drives alive. TCU is paced by steady quarterback Andy Dalton. He won't impress you with his skills, but he's the kind of player that just makes the team better somehow.

Usually TCU has a feature back that they can count on to pick up yards in a pinch, but they don't have that this year. Aaron Brown is close, but he doesn't even start most of the time and has been more impressive returning kicks. Jeremy Kerley could be the X-Factor as he was in the Frogs' big win over BYU earlier this year.

But I think Utah has the edge when it comes down to which offense can move the ball more consistently. The running back tandem of Matt Asiata and Darrell Mack are a combined 450 pounds (not to mention the 12 touchdowns between the two) and I think they can take the pounding the TCU defense is sure to bring and continue to pick up the few yards here and there to keep the chains moving. In fact, Mack ran for 100 yards last year on the Frogs.

Quarterback Brian Johnson is one of the most underrated player in the nation and he will ultimately be the difference tonight. He throws a beautiful ball and has the athleticism to avoid Hughes and the TCU pass rush more often than not.
J.Pike's Pick: Utah 23, TCU 19

Upeset Alert - Mountain West Edition

The Mountain West Conference has three teams ranked in the J&BP Top 25. This Saturday all three of those teams go on the road to face tough competition, so I’m putting the entire conference on Upset Alert. I predict at least one of the top three (Utah, TCU, BYU) will lose. Here’s a quick preview of the games in order of the likelihood of upset. By the way, if anybody knows what channel “The Mtn.” is, please let me know because for the first time ever I want to tune in to their network.

Utah (8-0) @ New Mexico (4-5)
(Saturday, 8:30 pm, The Mtn.)
Don’t ever count out Rocky Long’s troops. When quarterback Donovan Porterie went down for the season with an injury, the Lobos simply rallied around their potent running game. They are hanging around .500 thanks to the running of Rodney Ferguson. The senior tailback has paced the nation’s 13th ranked rushing attack with 865 yards and 11 touchdowns. Ferguson has his work cut out for him this week because the Utah front seven is one of the best in the Mountain West. Thanks to stars like Paul Kruger, Koa Misi, and Stevenson Sylvester, the Utes have limited opponents to 85.9 rushing yards per game this season (9th nationally). Can they hold up against Ferguson and company? One reason Utah is confident heading into this game is because of the play of their quarterback, Brian Johnson. Johnson has posted solid numbers and displayed impressive leadership skills in leading the Utes to their 8-0 mark. He has been the leading candidate for the Faulk Trophy for the entire season, and I expect him to play like he deserves the award Saturday. The Achilles heel for Utah all season has been their penchant for shooting themselves in the foot. Untimely penalties and turnovers have cropped up, but haven’t yet gotten the best of the Utes. New Mexico is a solid fundamental team that will be able to take advantage of these mistakes. That will get the momentum of the crowd going and give the Lobos an excellent shot at the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah 23

BYU (7-1) @ Colorado State (4-4)
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
Colorado State is looking for their first big win under new head coach Steve Fairchild and a home game against BYU would be the perfect opportunity to get it. If a winless Washington team can come within a blown extra point of taking BYU to overtime, why can’t the Rams do it too? Fairchild is striving for balance offensively with wide receiver Rashaun Greer and running back Gartrell Johnson, but the offensive line isn’t good enough yet for either phase to thrive. Facing an ever-improving BYU front seven that includes standouts David Nixon, Matt Bauman, and Jan Jorgensen doesn’t bode well for that unit. On the other side of the ball, BYU can score points, but they aren’t unstoppable. If you can pressure Max Hall you can knock him out of his rhythm. The problem is that Colorado State is last in the Mountain West with only 6 sacks this season. On emotion alone, the Rams will make this one a game in the second half, but in the end it will be difficult to make clutch stops against the potent BYU offense.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 34, Colorado State 24

TCU (8-1) @ UNLV (3-5)
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
When UNLV knocked off Arizona State earlier this season, it looked like the Rebels were finally going to turn the corner under coach Mike Sanford. Now that we are a little deeper into the season it looks like a win over ASU isn’t quite as impressive as it seemed at the time. But with quarterback Omar Clayton the Rebels will always have a chance to win. The problem is he will have to do it against one of the best defenses in the nation. TCU is in the top two nationally in each of the following categories: scoring defense (10.4 points per game), rushing defense (30.2 yards per game), total defense (218.9 yards per game), sacks (35), and turnover margin (+14). On top of all that, TCU has yet to allow a single point in the fourth quarter this season. So Omar Clayton had better watch his back because Jerry Hughes (12 sacks) and Jason Phillips will be coming after him on Saturday. For UNLV to pull the upset, they’ll need to play their best game and hope for one of those annual TCU choke jobs that tend to trip up the Horned Frogs just when they are gaining some national attention.
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 33, UNLV 16

National Championship Race - The Undefeated

Now that we have whittled the number of unbeatens down to single digits, it’s time for Pikes Picks to take a look at the national title race. In this installment I will take a look at the nine remaining undefeated teams, break down each of their remaining schedules, and give you my pick on which teams will finish undefeated and which teams will play in the BCS National Title Game.

BALL STATE (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, @Miami(OH), @Central Michigan, Western Michigan, MAC Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 40%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 10%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Ball State is led by their outstanding quarterback Nate Davis. Unfortunately, their other Faulk Trophy candidate, wide receiver Dante Love, suffered a spine injury earlier this season that will likely end his football career. The Cardinals have played well since losing Love, but will they be able to go to Mount Pleasant, Michigan in late November and knock off MAC stalwart Central Michigan? I’m not sure they can.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, no BCS bowl

TULSA (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: UCF, @Arkansas, @Houston, Tulane, @Marshall, Conference USA Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 60%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 25%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Todd Graham and Gus Malzahn have the Golden Hurricane offense tearing through opposing defenses like, well, a Golden Hurricane. They are averaging 56.6 points per game and put up 77 on UTEP last Saturday! Senior quarterback David Johnson is in his first year starting, but has already displayed big play ability thanks to his great touch on the deep throws. The defense hasn’t really needed to do much this year, so there are still question marks on that side of the ball that need to be answered on back to back road trips to Arkansas and Houston if Tulsa is to remain undefeated.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-1, Conference USA champs, no BCS bowl

BOISE STATE (6-0)
Remaining Schedule: @San Jose State, @New Mexico State, Utah State, @Idaho, @Nevada, Fresno State
Chance of going undefeated: 80%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 70%
Chance of playing for the national title: 2%
Boise State is surprisingly led by a freshman quarterback and a stout defense. Defense is definitely not the first thing that comes to mind when discussing the Broncos, but this unit is pretty good. Only one team has managed to top 7 points against Boise so far and that was Oregon - who only had 13 points entering the fourth quarter. The Boise State secondary is playing extremely well so far, picking off 11 passes and limiting opponents to below 50% completions. But the gutsy play of freshman quarterback Kellen Moore is the reason the Broncos will most likely run the table.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-0, WAC champs, BCS Bowl

TEXAS TECH (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, @Oklahoma, Baylor, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 0%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 5%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Texas Tech made it to 7-0 by playing a schedule that consisted of two Division 1-AA opponents and exactly zero teams ranked anywhere near the top 25. The past two weeks the Red Raiders have struggled against the mediocre teams in the Big XII, so there is a good chance they could lose each of the next four games against the better teams in the conference. At least head coach Mike Leach will still have his offensive stats to fall back on when he’s 8-4 again.
J.Pike’s Pick: 9-3, no BCS bowl

UTAH (8-0)
Remaining Schedule: @New Mexico, TCU, @San Diego State, BYU
Chance of going undefeated: 55%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 55%
Chance of playing for the national title: 5%
Don’t discount the Mountain West Conference because Utah is for real. The Utes have stormed out to an 8-0 start thanks to an aggressive defense and Faulk Trophy favorite QB Brian Johnson. The meat of the schedule remains with nationally ranked TCU and BYU. Both games are at home, but both teams will present legitimate challenges in completely different ways. If Utah makes it through the rest of the season undefeated, they should easily grab their second ever BCS Bowl berth.
J.Pike’s Pick: 11-1, Utes will be more deserving of a BCS bowl bid than Boise State, but won’t get one

OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Texas, Iowa State, @Texas Tech, @Colorado, Oklahoma, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 10%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 15%
Chance of playing for the national title: 5%
We’ll find out just how for real the Cowboys are this weekend when they travel to Austin to face #1 ranked Texas. Mike Gundy and the Pokes have been one of the biggest surprises of 2008 not because of their prolific, balanced offense, but because of their surprising improvement on defense. Again, we’ll find out how much better they are on defense this weekend. Since Gundy took over the play calling again (former OC Larry Fedora took the head coaching job at Southern Miss in the offseason), the offense has gotten more physical thanks to the running of Kendall Hunter. With Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma left on the schedule though, chances are slim they make it through unscathed.
J.Pike’s Pick: 9-3, no BCS bowl

ALABAMA (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Tennessee, Arkansas State, @LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, SEC Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 50%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 90%
Chance of playing for the national title: 45%
If there’s one word you could use to describe Alabama, it’s “physical”. The Crimson Tide are looking to beat up every last team on their schedule and anybody who doubts them. That approach will win them a lot of games, but the lack of consistency on offense will make it difficult to run through the SEC undefeated.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-1, BCS bowl

PENN STATE (8-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Ohio State, @Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State
Chance of going undefeated: 80%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 95%
Chance of playing for the national title: 75%
If you haven’t had the chance to watch this Penn State team yet, make sure and tune in Saturday night when the Nittany Lions invade the Horseshoe. Joe Paterno’s squad is probably the most well-rounded team in the nation. Quarterback Darrell Clark steadies a speedy offense that can run between the tackles with the immensely underrated Evan Royster, or pick you apart in the passing game with three senior wide receivers. Aaron Maybin (10 sacks) and the defensive line is flat out dominating right now, which has allowed the ballhawking secondary to roam free and intercept 11 passes. Don’t discount the senior leadership on this team. Playing in the Big Ten means they have the best shot at going undefeated, and therefore playing in the BCS Championship Game.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-0, National Title game

TEXAS (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: Oklahoma State, @Texas Tech, Baylor, @Kansas, Texas A&M, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 70%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 98%
Chance of playing for the national title: 70%
If defense wins championships, the Longhorns are definitely in the discussion. Will Muschamp has his troops playing as aggressively as anybody, and when you have linemen that are as physically dominant as Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller it makes everybody look good. But the reason this team is dangerous is their hunger to win. When Colt McCoy takes the Sports Illustrated with his image on the cover and throws it in the trash before the Missouri game, you know this is a special team. Difficult games against Oklahoma State and Kansas loom large, but this Texas teams seems to be up to any task.
J.Pike’s Pick: 13-0, Big XII Champs, National Title game

WEEK EIGHT - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

#11 Texas Tech at Texas A&M
(Saturday, 11 am, FSN)
Texas Tech isn’t a top ten team. Half the teams in Division 1-A could go undefeated against the schedule the Red Raiders have played so far. A&M doesn’t look like they’ll be much of a test either. While Mike Sherman has some quality skill players (Mike Goodson and Jerrod Johnson), there are huge holes on the O-Line and on defense. Give him some time and he’ll win games like this, but it won’t happen this year.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas Tech 52, Texas A&M 36

#12 LSU at South Carolina
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN)
The Gamecocks have been so inconsistent this season it’s hard to pick them against a talented LSU team coming off a loss. I like the South Carolina defense, but you never know what you’re going to get out of their offense. Stephen Garcia is finally going to get the start after residing in the doghouse for off-field incidents his first year and a half on campus. If he plays up to his hype, South Carolina will have a good chance to win this game. But again, you never know what you’re going to get. I think LSU’s advantage in the trenches will carry them to a sloppy, low scoring win.
J.Pike’s Pick: LSU 21, South Carolina 17

Colorado State at #13 Utah
(Saturday, 1 pm, The Mtn.)
Brian Johnson will continue to make his case for the Faulk Trophy by piling up numbers against the Rams of Colorado State. The Utes roll to 8-0 as they take over for BYU as the prime BCS-buster candidate.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 34, Colorado State 17

Baylor at #15 Oklahoma State
(Saturday, 2 pm)
Coming off their biggest win in recent memory, it’s tempting to think the Oklahoma State Cowboys are prime upset targets – especially with upstart Baylor and their phenom quarterback Robert Griffin coming to town. But the thing that impressed me the most about Okie State’s win over Missouri last week was how level-headed the Pokes were. They went into the game expecting to win and that’s exactly what they did. That leads me to believe they won’t get carried away by the emotions that could lead to a flat performance this week. It will be a closer game than it looks on paper, but the focused Cowboys will stay unbeaten.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma State 34, Baylor 24

#18 Virginia Tech at Boston College
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN 2)
Two of the best defenses in the ACC will take the field Saturday night in the third battle between these two teams in the last calendar year. Last season Va Poly avenged an early season choke job by beating the Eagles in the ACC title game, stealing a BCS berth in the process. This year both teams have vastly different rosters, but I think Virginia Tech has taken a bit more of a step back. BC quarterback Chris Crane got off to a terrible start this season, but he has really come into his own lately thanks to Josh Haden and the surprisingly solid running game. On the other side of the ball, Hokie quarterback Tyrod Taylor and running back Darren Evans are future stars, but this year, against Mark Herzlich and the imposing BC defense, I’m not sure they’ll be able to score enough points to win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boston College 26, Virginia Tech 22

#19 North Carolina at Virginia
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN2)
Be careful Tar Heels. Virginia is one of the hottest teams in the ACC right now, and they are facing North Carolina at the right time. Not only is UNC playing without starting quarterback T.J. Yates right now due to an ankle injury, they also received word earlier this week that their playmaking wide receiver/punt returner Brandon Tate will be out for the rest of the season after tearing up his knee in the first quarter against Notre Dame. But at the end of the day the UNC defense will make the stops necessary to cool the Wahoos off.
J.Pike’s Pick: North Carolina 24, Virginia 13

UTEP at #20 Tulsa
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
Tulsa is racking up points at an alarming rate in Todd Graham’s offensive scheme. It doesn’t seem to matter who the quarterback is, but it helps when he’s as efficient as senior David Johnson has been. On the flip side, UTEP is starting to play good football now too. Sophomore Trinity HS alum [LINK] Trevor Vittatoe is coming into his own and running back Terrell Jackson is explosive. But can the Miners keep up with the high octane Golden Hurricane? On the road I don’t think they can.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 48, UTEP 33

#22 California at Arizona
(Saturday, 9 pm, FCS-Pacific)
Apparently Nate Longspare is back in at the starting quarterback for Cal. That’s not a good thing. The young Arizona defense will force him into turnovers by pressuring him from the get go. That will give Willie Tuitama and the offense great field position throughout the game so that the Wildcats can pull the mild upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: Arizona 31, California 27

#23 Georgia Tech at Clemson
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
The Tommy Bowden era at Clemson is now officially over, but will that automatically translate into wins? The talent on the Clemson sideline is more impressive than anywhere else in the ACC, but Georgia Tech under new head coach Paul Johnson is the kind of team that neutralizes talent advantages as well as anybody. Josh Nesbitt is coming back from his injury to lead the triple option offense so you can expect the Bees to lull Clemson to sleep and bust a big run late. Clemson is going to start Willy “Candy” Korn just in time for Halloween. Michael Johnson and the Ramblin’ Wreck defense are licking their chops, ready to spook the freshman early and often as they shut down an inefficient Clemson offense that just fired its coordinator.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia Tech 17, Clemson 13

#24 Oregon is idle

#25 Minnesota is idle

WEEK SEVEN - Locks

Syracuse (+23½) over West Virginia
Syracuse is bad, but West Virginia hasn’t shown the ability to beat anybody by more than three touchdowns this year. With Pat White suffering through nagging injuries, I don’t expect that pattern to change.

Utah (-23) over Wyoming
Utah is playing good football right now and Wyoming simply is not. The Cowboys aren’t even averaging double digits in points this season (by far the worst in the nation), so a shutout by the strong Utah defense is more than possible – it’s probable. Utah quarterback Brian Johnson can easily manufacture at least 30 against this group.

Colorado State (+15½) over TCU
This is the kind of game that seems to trip up TCU just about every year. The Horned Frogs are favored on the road against a team with a new coach that is improving every week. Not only do I think Colorado State covers this large spread, I think they have an excellent shot at winning outright.

Louisiana-Lafayette (-21) over North Texas High
If I actually put money on these bets, I would have gotten rich betting against North Texas High School this season. Louisiana-Lafayette has the nation’s top rushing offense and Tyrell Fenroy nearly topped the 300-yard mark a week ago against Louisiana-Monroe! Look for the Ragin’ Cajuns to to approach 500 yards rushing and completely control the clock in this game.

Tulsa (-25) over SMU
This seems to be the week where I capitalize on the big spreads. Tulsa is tops in the nation averaging 56.4 points per game. June Jones is struggling to get his passing attack going as the Mustangs sit on a 1-5 record averaging only 22 points per game. Tulsa wins big.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Texas (+7) over Oklahoma
Illinois (-12½) over Minnesota
Arizona State (+28) over USC
Buffalo (-1) over Western Michigan
Miami (-16½) over Central Florida
Arizona (-6½) over Stanford
Iowa State (+4½) over Baylor
San Jose State (-14) over Utah State
Missouri (-14) over Oklahoma State
UTEP (-4) over Tulane

Wed/Thur/Fri Games

Louisiana Tech @ Boise State
(Wednesday, 7 pm, ESPN)
Boise State and their cheap shot artist safeties [LINK] are knocking on the door of the top 25. Derek Dooley’s Bulldogs have been playing well this year thanks to Georgia Tech transfer Taylor Bennett, but I’m not sure they have enough to win on the blue turf. After a tough battle, Boise will put them away with a late touchdown.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 34, Louisiana Tech 20

Pittsburgh @ #12 South Florida
(Thursday, 6:30 pm, ESPN)
Pitt head coach Dave Wannstedt needs a win here. After losing to Bowling Green in the season opener, the Panthers have built up some momentum thanks to a reliable running game. But now they must go up against George Selvie and the strong USF defense. Pitt will keep it close, but they don’t appear to be ready to take that next step in the Big East yet.
J.Pike’s Pick: South Florida 27, Pittsburgh 20

Oregon State @ #13 Utah
(Thursday, 8 pm, VERSUS)
Coming off the big upset win over #1 USC a week ago, the Beavers must now leave Corvallis to face yet another top 15 team. Utah is 5-0 and looks like a potential BCS buster thanks to the play of quarterback Brian Johnson. Johnson has been the Faulk Trophy favorite all season long so you know he’ll show up Thursday night. Oregon State was able to beat USC by playing physical football and running the ball right down their throats. But Utah’s defense is a physical unit that, unlike the Trojans, won’t back down when somebody punches them in the mouth. Paul Kruger, Stevenson Sylvester, and Company are good enough to slow down Quizz Rodgers and the running game which means quarterback Lyle Moevao will have to to make plays in the passing game. Wide receiver Sammie Stroughter is fantastic, but overall I don’t think Moevao is good enough to balance out the offense, especially against Utah’s secondary. Robert Johnson headlines a big, athletic unit that will make it difficult for the inconsistent Moevao to find open receivers. The biggest concern for the Utes is their penchant for committing penalties. If they don’t get that problem under control they could easily give this game away.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 31, Oregon State 27

#10 BYU @ Utah State
(Friday, 7 pm)
BYU has been rolling this year - hence their #10 ranking. Utah State is one of the worst teams in Division 1-A. There is no reason for this game not to be over by halftime.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 48, Utah State 14

Cincinnati @ Marshall
(Friday, 7 pm, ESPN)
Marshall has actually been playing good football so far this season. They are 3-2, have a win over Southern Miss under their belt, and gave Wisconsin everything they could handle in a loss. Now they host a Cincinnati team with serious injury issues at quarterback. Dustin Grutza and Tony Pike are both out for this game, so it will be up to one of the redshirt freshmen to lead the Bearcats (where’s Demetrius Jones? Was he sacrificed in one of the many Ben Mauk medical hardship appeals?). Luckily whoever the QB is will have tremendous receivers Dominick Goodman and Marshawn Gilyard at his disposal. Marshall’s Darius Passmore will make sure he isn’t overshadowed by that group though. Make no mistake about it – this is going to be a dog fight. The experienced Herd defense will do everything in their power to get after Cincy’s young quarterback, and maybe with a little Friday night home crowd magic they’ll be able to pull off the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: Marshall 26, Cincinnati 25

WEEK FIVE - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

#12 BYU is Idle

Tennessee at #13 Auburn
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
The Auburn defense is one of the best in the nation. They’ll have no problem shutting down the woeful Tennessee offense by pressuring quarterback Jonathan Crompton into turnovers. Auburn’s offense is by no means a juggernaut either, but they’ll be good enough in this matchup.
J.Pike’s Pick: Auburn 23, Tennessee 10

#14 South Florida at N.C. State
(Saturday, 6:30 pm, ESPN U)
A week after their upset of #18 East Carolina, N.C. State faces yet another top 20 team in Raleigh. Unfortunately for the Wolfpack they will be without the services of their best offensive and defensive players this time around. Quarterback Russell Wilson, who had a breakout game against the Pirates, and linebacker Nate Irving will both be held out of the game due to injuries suffered a week ago. Harrison Beck, who will start in Wilson’s place at quarterback, is in for a long night. I expect USF DE George Selvie to harass him into a ton of mistakes and turnovers.
J.Pike’s Pick: South Florida 27, N.C. State 10

#15 Texas Tech is Idle

Maryland at #16 Clemson
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN360.com)
This is a good test for both teams. Is Clemson as good as the preseason hype surrounding them or are they the chumps that barely showed up against Alabama? Is Maryland really as good as they looked against Cal or was that an aberration? Look for this game to be a slugfest decided by mistakes.
J.Pike’s Pick: Clemson 26, Maryland 18

Weber State at #17 Utah
(Saturday, 7 pm)
This matchup has an interesting subtext: Weber State head coach Ron McBride coached the Utes for 12 seasons, compiling an 88-63 record prior to the arrival of Urban Meyer. McBride brings a fairly explosive offense averaging 38.8 points per game in his return to Salt Lake. But Brian Johnson and the current Ute squad are far too much for the Wildcats. Utah must work on committing fewer penalties if they want to compete with BYU in the Mountain West.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 43, Weber State 24

#18 Kansas is Idle

Navy at #20 Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:45 pm, ESPN U)
Wake Forest has quietly compiled a 3-0 record while playing very solid football so far this season. Their defense nearly pitched a shutout against overmatched Florida State last week (never thought I’d say that). The Demon Deacons need to be careful not to overlook Navy though. Navy is coming off a mild upset over Rutgers last week and they finally have quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada Nahasapeemapetilon back in the fold after he missed the first three games due to injury.
J.Pike’s Pick: Wake Forest 23, Navy 15

#21 Vanderbilt is Idle

Virginia Tech at #22 Nebraska
(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
Breakdown can be found here: [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: Nebraska 32, Virginia Tech 24

North Carolina at #23 Miami
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN 2)
This is a game that is only going to get more important over the next few years. Both programs appear to be on the rise and both are playing a number of talented freshmen and sophomores. Don’t be surprised if this is a top 10 matchup in two years. I’ll give Miami the nod this year thanks in large part to their talented freshmen, QB Robert Marve and LB Sean Spence. Also, North Carolina quarterback T.J. Yates will miss the game due to an ankle fracture.
J.Pike’s Pick: Miami 24, North Carolina 14

Houston at #25 East Carolina
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS College Sports)
East Carolina finally lost a game last week, but I still thought they played well. Quarterback Patrick Pinkney continues to impress, and East Carolina still plays as physical as any non-BCS conference team. Houston got beat pretty bad by Colorado State a week ago, so expect ECU to roll here.
J.Pike’s Pick: East Carolina 30, Houston 17

WEEK FOUR - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

#12 Alabama at Arkansas

(Saturday, 11:30 am, ESPN360.com)
Arkansas has needed big fourth quarter comebacks to beat Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe. Alabama on the other hand already has a dominating performance over preseason #6 Clemson on their resume. This one will be closer than you expect, but if John Parker Wilson plays well the outcome will never be in doubt.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 24, Arkansas 14

#13 South Florida at Florida International
(Saturday, 4 pm, ESPN U)
FIU gives up 41 points per game and has scored only 10 points all year. USF averages 41 points scored per game and averages 2.5 times as many offensive yards per game as FIU. You get the idea – this one won’t be close.
J.Pike’s Pick: South Florida 48, Florida International 6

Boise State at #14 Oregon
(Saturday, 2:30 pm)
Two high powered offenses meet up in this matchup, but they will be facing two underrated defensive units. Oregon’s secondary is one of the best in the nation and Boise has only allowed 14 points so far this year. The difference is Oregon has cut their teeth against Washington and Purdue, while Boise has only faced Bowling Green and Idaho State.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oregon 27, Boise State 17

Massachusetts at #15 Texas Tech
(Saturday, 6 pm)
Is Texas Tech applying for 1-AA status? You’d think so by looking at their schedule.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas Tech 51, UMass 17

South Carolina State at #16 Clemson
(Saturday, noon, ESPN360.com)
Ditto for Clemson. No wonder they played like crap against Alabama – they aren’t used to playing anybody decent this early in the season. And seriously, get that running game going.
J.Pike’s Pick: Clemson 44, S.C. State 10

#17 Utah at Air Force
(Friday, 3 pm, Versus)
These two Mountain West rivals have a history of great games. Over the last 20 years the margin of victory in this series has been 7 points or less 13 times! This season both teams enter the game with perfect 3-0 records, so you can expect more of the same. In the end Brian Johnson will make the difference. Air Force, which averages only 30 passing yards per game, will struggle to score when they need to late in the game against Utah’s stout defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 23, Air Force 20

#18 East Carolina at N.C. State
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
Believe me - N.C. State will be ready to play. This rivalry has grown especially intense ever since East Carolina fans stormed N.C. State’s field and tore down their goalposts after a win in 1987. Just two years ago N.C. State officials removed the goal posts with 14 seconds left in the game because they thought the rowdy ECU fans in attendance might do it again! On the field, East Carolina seems to be doing everything right so far this year in bursting out to a 3-0 start and beating preseason top 25 teams Virginia Tech and West Virginia. But there are chinks in the armor. Patrick Pinkney is a really good quarterback, but for some reason the offense struggles to score points at times. And the defense lost one of its best players, linebacker Quentin Cotton, to injury last week. I think quarterback Russell Wilson will pace a steady Wolfpack offense to the upset win at home.
J.Pike’s Pick: N.C. State 24, East Carolina 20

Sam Houston State at #19 Kansas
(Saturday, 6 pm, FCS-Central)
We have a Rhett Bomar sighting! The former Oklahoma ball hog has landed in Huntsville, TX, where he leads the Bearkats of Sam Houston State. He’s no match for Joe Mortensen and the Kansas defense though. Todd Reesing and a deep stable of receivers has been dicing up opposing defenses, so this shouldn’t be much of a contest.
J.Pike’s Pick: Kansas 45, Sam Houston State 13

Wyoming at #20 BYU
(Saturday, 2 pm, the mtn.)
Despite only scoring 40 points so far this season, Wyoming is 2-1. BYU on the other hand scored 42 points IN THE FIRST HALF against UCLA a week ago. BYU rolls over Dax Crum and the Cowboys for an easy win.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 31, Wyoming 13

#21 Illinois is Idle

#22 Nebraska is Idle

Baylor @ #25 Connecticut
(Friday, 7 pm, ESPN 2)
I’ll call this recommended viewing if you’re at home Friday night with nothing better to do. It probably won’t be a very close game, but there is one very good reason to check it out. His name is Robert Griffin. If you haven’t seen Baylor’s freshman quarterback play yet, do yourself a favor and tune in. He’s easily the best athlete Baylor has had in a decade, and he’ll make a couple highlight reel plays. This game will be all UConn though. Running back Donald Brown will probably eclipse the 200 yard mark for the third straight week and UConn will shut down everybody not named Griffin. But Baylor won’t be an easy win for much longer.
J.Pike’s Pick: Connecticut 34, Baylor 21

WEEK THREE - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

UNLV at #11 Arizona State
(Saturday, 9 pm, FCS-Pacific)
Arizona State gets one final tune-up before Georgia comes to town.
J.Pike’s Pick: Arizona State 35, UNLV 13

Western Kentucky at #12 Alabama
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN360.com)
The Alabama offense was awful last week against Tulane, gaining only 172 total yards. Western Kentucky, the newest addition to 1-A, should cure what ails them.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 31, Western Kentucky 14

#13 Penn State at Syracuse
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
Penn State flexed their muscles last week in a dominating win over Oregon State. As a reward they get to feast on a Syracuse team that was embarrassed by Akron. The Penn State front four has suffered more injuries and suspensions than you can count, but they’ll still make it nearly impossible for Syracuse to score in this game. And the Nittany Lion offense won’t have a problem against an inept Syracuse defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 38, Syracuse 7

N.C. State at #14 Clemson
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN360.com)
This is step two in the rehab process after the humiliating loss to Alabama in week one. Clemson took care of The Citadel last week and now get a conference opponent at home. For some reason, James Davis and C.J. Spiller have only carried the ball a combined 27 times this season. They should average that per game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Clemson 27, N.C. State 14

SMU at #15 Texas Tech
(Saturday, 6 pm, FSN-Southwest)
If there’s one game this weekend you couldn’t pay me to watch, this would be it. These two offenses will make a mockery of the game of football, and both coaches will leave their defenses in bad positions in favor of their pet offenses at least a couple times (see Mike Leach going for it on 4th down twice last week inside his own 30!). Normally I would say the scoring could reach triple digits, but the Tech offense has been stuck in neutral so far this year.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas Tech 52, SMU 27

#16 Oregon at Purdue
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN)
Could this be the road trip that finally trips up Justin Roper? Roper has been playing lights out in place of the injured Nate Costa, who is out for the season. Curtis Painter and the Purdue offense look good on paper, but going up against one of the best defensive backfields in the nation will be a significant challenge. Oregon’s secondary will get the best of this matchup and that leaves Purdue with few other options. Jeremiah Johnson should be healthy and ready to run wild on the porous Purdue defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oregon 34, Purdue 20

#19 Kansas at #17 South Florida
(Friday, 7 pm, ESPN 2)
This is a matchup that should produce a great game. Kansas QB Todd Reesing is firing on all cylinders this year, especially with speedy freshman WR Daymond Patterson added in the mix. On the flip side, South Florida is coming off an overtime tussle with don’t-call-them-rivals Central Florida. The Kansas defense is solid and will be able to force Matt Grothe into a couple turnovers, but USF will be able to pressure Reesing and get him out of his rhythm. It will be a tight game throughout controlled by the defenses, so I’ll give a slight edge to the home team.
J.Pike’s Pick: South Florida 22, Kansas 20

#18 Utah at Utah State
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN360.com)
These two in-state rivals play every year, but it’s usually big brother Utah beating up on little brother Utah State. Expect more of the same this year with Utah QB Brian Johnson padding stats in his quest to win the Faulk Trophy.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 42, Utah State 10

#20 East Carolina at Tulane
(Saturday, 2 pm)
East Carolina has been the story of the year so far, upsetting Virginia Tech and West Virginia in their first two outings. The defense has been a big reason for the success and Tulane has struggled to score points this season. That doesn’t bode well for the Green Wave. However with ECU riding high off their 2-0 start, don’t be surprised if they let the headlines go to their heads early and get off to a slow start against a Tulane team that nobody is giving a chance. Remember, Tulane held Alabama to a mere 172 yards of total offense last week. Pirate QB Patrick Pinkney is too good to let his team sleep for too long though and he’ll lead the offense to just enough points to win comfortably.
J.Pike’s Pick: East Carolina 23, Tulane 10

Louisiana-Lafayette at #21 Illinois
(Saturday, 11 am, Big Ten Network)
Here’s another cupcake for the Illinois offense to run up and down the field against. The Ragin’ Cajuns could come in handy though because the Illini defense has been miserable so far this season. Louisiana-Lafayette QB Michael Desormeaux and RB Tyrell Fenroy both ran for over 1,000 yards last season so there should be plenty of opportunities for Illinois to practice their tackling.
J.Pike’s Pick: Illinois 48, Louisiana-Lafayette 20

#22 UCLA at #25 BYU
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, Versus)
The Cougars need to step up their play on the defensive side of the ball if they are to win this game. UCLA’s defense is excellent and they will make it very difficult on Max Hall, who isn’t the best under pressure. Defensive tackles Brian Price and Brigham Harwell will make sure that’s the case Saturday afternoon. It will be up to Kevin Craft, who must get off to a better start than he did against Tennessee when he threw 4 interceptions in the first half.
J.Pike’s Pick: UCLA 26, BYU 21

UAB at #23 Tennessee
(Saturday, 11:30 am, ESPN360.com)
After pondering their overtime loss to UCLA for almost two weeks, it’s time for Tennessee to take the field again. Facing one of the worst defenses in the nation – UAB allows a whopping 47 points per game - should help the potentially explosive Tennessee offense find a rhythm after struggling against UCLA.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tennessee 51, UAB 17

#24 California at Maryland
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
It’s a tale of two offenses. The Cal offense has exploded thanks to the speedy Jahvid Best and the running game. In two games Best has 311 yards rushing and 4 tds, and the Bears are averaging 297 yards rushing as a team! Maryland on the other hand is averaging a putrid 14 points per game and is coming off an embarrassing loss at the hands of Middle Tennessee State. I’m a little concerned about the long road trip and early start time, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Maryland’s defense forces a couple three-and-outs early. The speed of Cal wins out in the end though.
J.Pike’s Pick: California 30, Maryland 16