Pac-10 Preview

Projected Records & Standings

1. USC                10-2  (8-1)
2. CALIFORNIA         10-2  (7-2)
3. OREGON              8-4  (6-3)
4. ARIZONA STATE       8-4  (6-3)
5. OREGON STATE        8-4  (5-4)
6. STANFORD            7-5  (5-4)
7. ARIZONA             6-6  (3-6)
8. UCLA                4-8  (3-6)
9. WASHINGTON          4-8  (3-6)
10.WASHINGTON STATE    1-11 (0-9)

Champion: USC
Is there really anybody else you can pick to win the Pac-10? Even though Cal looks to have a good team and might even beat USC this season, and USC is as inexperienced on defense as they have ever been, you still have to give the Trojans the nod. Until Pete Carroll proves otherwise, he’s the coach to beat in the Pac-10. I’ll even go so far as to say the offense might get better in 2009. I never really liked John David Booty or Matt Sanchez at the quarterback spot – they seemed to miss out on a lot of big play opportunities with inaccurate throws down the field. If new quarterback Aaron Corp has better touch on the deep ball, look out.

Question the Hype: UCLA
There’s not much that angers me more than hearing UCLA fans blame their pitiful 2008 season (4-8) on former head coach Karl Dorrell. Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t the Bruins winning more than four games a season when Dorrell was coaching? I hear the “poor recruiting” card played on Dorrell a lot, and I just don’t buy it. The guy won games with his players (he beat USC just two seasons ago), and Neuheisel didn’t – it’s that simple.

So why is UCLA widely expected to make dramatic improvements in 2009? They have the same porous offensive line blocking for the same running backs and an even more inexperienced quarterback. More importantly, though, a defense that was the only bright spot on the team a year ago lost their coordinator when DeWayne Walker left to take over as head coach at New Mexico State. Walker was a great DC and I expect the Bruins to take a step back on defense without him, even though several playmakers return on that side of the ball.

Could Surprise: ARIZONA STATE
Arizona loses their quarterback, top receiver, and most talented running back. They also have had some of the worst offensive line play in the Pac-10 over the past two seasons. So why do I expect the Sun Devils to step up in 2009? Well the defense has the makings to be one of the best in the conference. The top tackler (LB Mike Nixon), sack leader (DE Dexter Davis), and interception leader (Nixon) all return. Additionally, four starters return on the offensive line and Danny Sullivan is a big-armed quarterback who could make Dennis Erickson’s offense hum if he can adjust to the starting role.

If that’s not enough, get this stat: since 2002, Arizona State has finished ranked in the top 25 every season in which they were unranked in the preseason. The Sun Devils aren't ranked anywhere near the top 25 so far this preseason.

Bo Jackson Trophy Candidates:
Top 3:
RB-Jahvid Best, California
RB-Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State
RB-LeGarrette Blount, Oregon

Ten to Watch:
QB-Aaron Corp/Matt Barkley, USC
RB-Toby Gerhart, Stanford
WR-D’Andre Goodwin, Washington
TE-Rob Gronkowski, Arizona
QB-Jake Locker, Washington
QB-Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon
RB-James Montgomery, Washington State
C-Kris O’Dowd, USC
WR-James Rodgers, Oregon State
QB-Matt Scott, Arizona
WR-Damien Williams, USC

Herzlich Trophy Candidates:
Top 3:
DT-Brian Price, UCLA
CB-Syd’Quan Thompson, California
LB-Mike Nixon, Arizona State

Ten to Watch:
LB-Reggie Carter, UCLA
DE-Dexter Davis, Arizona State
DE-Everson Griffen, USC
DT-Lawrence Guy, Arizona State
LB-Keaton Kristick, Oregon State
FS-Taylor Mays, USC
DE-Daniel Te’O-Nesheim, Washington
CB-Walter Thurmond, Oregon
CB-Trevin Wade, Arizona
CB-Alterraun Verner, UCLA

Pac-10 Preview

Favorite: USC

No surprise here. Pete Carroll has won the last six conference crowns at SC, and this year looks no different. The gap is closing however, so expect the Trojans to lose at least one or two conference games again this year.

Sleeper: Oregon
If all the pieces come together, the Ducks could sneak away with the Pac-10 title. All their tough conference games are on the road though (USC, Arizona State, Cal, Oregon State), so the will have to be really good to win it. But the talent is there, and the confidence is building after the Ducks upset USC last year.

On the Rise: Stanford
Call me crazy but I'm buying into Jim Harbaugh. He's got genuine enthusiasm (as opposed to, say, Mike Stoops) and an infectious, never-say-die attitude. How else do you explain the Cardinal knocking off 41-point favorite USC on their home field a year ago? Harbaugh will pull off another big upset this year and perhaps guide Stanford to their first bowl game since 2001.

Declining: Washington State
There's no doubt about it - Paul Wulff inherited a sinking ship. The Cougars roster has dwindled well below the 85-scholarship limit to a point where depth is a serious issue. Wulff may end up being a good hire in the long run, but Wazzu will have to hit bottom first.

PROJECTED STANDINGS & RECORDS

1. USC	10-2 (8-1 conference)
2. Arizona State	9-3 (7-2)
3. Oregon	9-3 (6-3)
4. California	7-5 (5-4)
5. Oregon State	6-6 (5-4)
6. UCLA	6-6 (5-4)
7. Stanford	6-6 (4-5)
8. Arizona	4-8 (2-7)
9. Washington	3-9 (2-7)
10. Washington State	3-10 (1-8)

PLAYERS OF THE YEAR

Offense: Sammie Stroughter (WR, Oregon State)
Defense: Rey Maualuga (LB, USC)
Special Teams: Kai Forbath (K, UCLA)

NATIONAL AWARDS CANDIDATES
Jahvid Best (RB, Cal) - Sayers
Jairus Byrd (CB, Ore) - Deion
Patrick Chung (S, Ore) - Arrington, Deion
Kai Forbath (K, UCLA) - Sproles/Sauerbrun
Everson Griffen (DE, USC) - Arrington
Jake Locker (QB, Wash) - Frazier
Rey Maualuga (LB, USC) - Arrington
Joe McKnight (RB, USC) - Sayers
Sammie Stroughter (WR, OrSt) - Bo Jackson, Sproles/Sauerbrun
Walter Thurmond (CB, Ore) - Deion
Thomas Weber (K, ASU) - Sproles/Sauerbrun
Gold Wrenches:
USC defensive line
Oregon offensive line
UCLA defensive line

JP25 - #7 USC

USC hasn’t looked as unbeatable the last couple seasons. Although ESPN would like you to believe they are still the kings of college football, they’ve got serious competition at the top of the heap. Even the rest of the Pac-10 has closed the gap lately. Remember that Southern Cal lost to Stanford at home – a team that won only four games – in addition to falling to Oregon a year ago.

OFFENSE
The Trojans have work to do on offense. There has been a sharp decline in production since Matt Leinart and Co. left - from 43 points per game in 2003-2005 to 31 points per game the past two seasons. One of the biggest reasons for the two touchdown per game dropoff has been the inability to complete the deep passes that made USC unstoppable in the Leinart/Carson Palmer era. John David Booty managed the underneath routes, but he missed on 90% of his deep throws - and “poor receiver play” wasn’t the reason. Mark Sanchez has a stronger arm than Booty did so it’s possible the offense will open back up again in 2008.

If Sanchez turns out to be an upgrade over Booty, the USC receiving corps should easily shake their undeserved rap as an “under-performing” unit the last two years. Arkansas transfer Damian Williams in particular has the speed to become a big time playmaker. He might not have been as heralded as fellow Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain, but Williams will definitely have a bigger impact at USC. Patrick Turner and Vidal Hazelton will also benefit from a improved quarterback play.

Gone is tight end and leading receiver Fred Davis (62 receptions for 881 yards, 8 tds). A replacement will need to be found to keep the offense diverse. The offensive line is probably the biggest trouble spot on the whole team heading into the season. Only one starter returns to what will be a very inexperienced unit. Supposedly Pete Carroll has been able to recruit a player or two to Southern Cal, so perhaps talent won’t be an issue.

Speaking of talent, this is one of the deepest groups of running backs in the nation. Joe McKnight steps into the spotlight this year as the feature back. He comes with a lot of hype, but there hasn’t been much production to back it up – yet. Stafon Johnson, C.J. Gable, and Allen Bradford provide excellent depth and a variety of running styles. Sophomore Stanley Havili has already proven to be one of the best fullbacks in the land. He’s a ferocious blocker who still managed to compile 34 receptions and score 7 touchdowns in ’07, proving there is still room for a fullback in the 21st century.

DEFENSE
This is a unit Carroll can count on whether the offense comes around or not. The Trojans return 7 starters to a defense that was one of the best in the nation a year ago (16 points, 273 yards allowed per game – both rank second nationally).

Rey Maualuga continues the recent tradition of fantastic middle linebacker play at USC. In fact, Maualuga might end up being the best of the bunch. He’s a high-motor guy who seems to always be around the ball, and one of the favorites to win the inaugural Arrington Trophy. Brian Cushing missed time due to injury last season, but he has shown flashes of brilliance and will dramatically improve his production - if he can stay healthy.

The secondary loses only one player off the two-deep from ’07. Free safety Taylor Mays has garnered plenty of attention since being a hot-shot recruit three years ago, but I haven’t seen enough out of him yet to tab him as an All America candidate. Overall the secondary works very well together – SC finished 6th nationally in pass efficiency defense a year ago - and with just about everybody returning there’s no reason for this not to be one of the better defensive backfields around.

Up front is where there is some concern. Departed stars Lawrence Jackson and Sedrick Ellis were the type of players that most programs would love to have once in a decade. But this is USC. Is there any doubt that sophomore defensive end Everson Griffen isn’t going to be great? Well he is. Fili Moala will step up at tackle and it will be like Jackson and Ellis never left.

KEEP AN EYE ON
Quarterback play. If Sanchez can prove to be an upgrade over Booty, the SC offense might become feared once again.

RISING STAR
Defensive end Everson Griffen. Griffen picked up 5.5 sacks last year as a true freshman and is being counted on to replace the pass rushing presence of Lawrence Jackson. Don’t be surprised if Griffen surpasses Jackson in terms of being a menace to opposing quarterbacks.

Pac-10 RB Rankings

1. Jeremiah Johnson, Oregon
The senior running back has been living in Jonathan Stewart's shadow for the past three years, but now is his time. Johnson may not have Stewart's size, but seriously - check out this guy's stiff arm. He's got better football speed than Stewart too, and has managed to average a touchdown every 10 times he touches the ball in his college career. Project that out over the 200 carries he should get this year and there's no doubt he's the best running back in the Pac-10.

2. Jahvid Best, California
3. Joe McKnight, USC
4. Dwight Tardy, Washington St.
5. Khalil Bell, UCLA

OTHERS TO WATCH
Ryan McCants, Oregon State
LeGarrette Blount, Oregon

BP25- #17 Arizona St Sun Devils

Here's to you Rudy Carpenter, heaven holds a place for those who pray, hey, hey, hey....Wow I am old, referencing a old Paul Simon song(actually I like the Lemonheads cover better) to describe the #17 team in my poll, but hey it really fits, try it. Well the Devils recorded a very strong 10-3 record last year and with Rudy still at the controls it looks to be another strong year. They lose Ryan Torian but Keegan Herring took over the job last year and seems to be a upgrade going into his senior season by leading the team with 815 yards. This is a very good and efficient offense it only scored less then 20 points.......never last year and returns thier core this year.

Defensively they return 7 starters and are led on the line by DE Dexter Davis who led the team with 10.5 sacks. They lose however three draft picks in Robert James, Justin Tryon and Josh Barrett, but even despite these losses I look for them keep the corpse of coach Dennis Erickson glad he isn't a Vandal. The road trips include @ California and @ USC back to back which could be the real test if this team is a contender or pretender, also wrapping up at a must improved rival Arizona. They do however nut up and schedule Georgia to vist Tempe and if the weather is right could be a upset a brewin. So here's to you Dennis Erickson, Rudy deserves a chance to call the plays, hey, hey, hey.

BP25- #19 Oregon Ducks

Well go to the closet and get the big shoes out per they are going to need to be filled. With The great Dennis Dixon gone and Johnathan Stewart now pushing DeAngelo Williams for PT it will be interesting to see what Oregon brings despite their Mad max uniforms. The caretakers for these two departed playmakers rest on the shoulders of Nathan Costa or Justin Roper(he slaughtered USF in the Sun Bowl)at QB and Jeremiah Johnson or JUCO LeGarrette Blount at RB. Obviously a downgrade, but with Jaison Williams and TE Ed Dickson it should ease the transition.

This team however posts one of the best secondaries in the NCAA led by Patrick Chung 7.5 tfl and that is from the safety position! Walter Thurmond and Jarius Bird round out the secondary with 33 pbu and 12 pix combined. They can literally make you one dimensional in a hurry. The schedule sends the Ducks to Purdue(which could be upset?) @ USC (Who have revenge on the mind), @ Arizona St(Revenge), @ California and round out the year @ Rival Oregon St. So as you can see it will be rough to improve on last year, but with this secondary it garners them a ranking!

JP25 - #13 ARIZONA STATE

Dennis Erickson's first year in Tempe was a huge success. Arizona State won 10 games in the regular season and finished tied with USC as co-champs in the Pac-10. Erickson brought a sense of balance to the football team that had been missing under the previous regime. The most impressive part about the team was how well the staff made in-game adjustments - the Sun Devils outscored opponents 152-64 in 2nd quarters and 218-101 after halftime in 2007.

OFFENSE
Quarterback Rudy Carpenter finally showed a little consistency last season, upping his completion percentage to almost 62% and cutting down on interceptions. It helped that there seemed to be more of a sense of direction coming from the offensive coaching staff than before. Carpenter's mouth can get him in trouble from time to time though, as evidenced by the Holiday Bowl when he talked smack about the Texas defense and then proceeded to get hammered from every direction on the field. If he gets hurt, the Sun Devils can feel safe turning to strong-armed Danny Sullivan.

One of the reasons it is nice to have two solid quarterbacks ready to go is because the offensive line was one of the worst in the nation last year. Not only did they pave the way to a paltry 3.2 yards per carry, they also gave up a whopping 55 sacks! That was better than only Notre Dame's dismal O-Line. Only two starters return, but that could be addition by subtraction. Plus Jon Hargis was moved over from the defensive line to provide a little boost. Overall there's no way the offensive line performs as poorly as they did in 2007.

The Sun Devils return a decent duo in tailbacks Keegan Herring and Dimitri Nance (Trinity High School alum). Herring has good speed and Nance has good size, but neither are elite Pac-10 backs. In combination they'll be good enough to balance out the offense. Top recruit Ryan Bass may also see action.

The receiving corps has the makings of a fine unit with the return of 6-foot-4 Michael Jones (10 tds in '07) and excellent possession receiver Chris McGaha (61 receptions for 830 yards). Jones is a dangerous deep threat, while McGaha is one of the most underrated receivers in the Pac-10. He doesn't have great athletic ability, but has a real knack for the position and how to get open.

DEFENSE
Arizona State actually played respectable defense in 2007. They weren't a dominant unit by any means, but they weren't a weakness either. Top defender Robert James graduated, but most of the other key components return. Strong safety Troy Nolan is the vocal leader on the team, and his 6 interceptions last season were the most by any Sun Devil in seven years. Omar Bolden started as a true freshman last season and has excellent quickness. These two players headline a secondary that finished in the top 15 nationally last season in pass efficiency defense. They'll again be among the best secondaries in the nation, which is extremely helpful in the Pac-10 conference.

Up front the Sun Devils are led by defensive ends Dexter Davis and Luis Vasquez. Vasquez started out his career at Northwestern before going to junior college and eventually ending up in Tempe last year. He lived up to his advanced billing and is a fine all-around DE. Davis on the other hand is a pass rushing menace, piling up 10.5 sacks in 2007. Michael Marquardt was a beast while plugging up the middle a year ago and his presence will be missed. Luckily another Trinity Trojan is on the roster (Saia Falahola) ready to fill the void.

KEEP AN EYE ON
The offensive line. This is a unit that must show improvement if Arizona State is to once again make a run at ten wins.

RISING STAR
Quarterback Danny Sullivan. With Rudy Carpenter entering his last year of eligibility, it's only a matter of time now until Sullivan is unleashed onto Pac-10 defenses. Sullivan flashed his potential in the Holiday Bowl last year and if he can put the mental part of the game together with his unlimited arm, he'll be a star in this offense.

JP25 - #14 OREGON

Oregon was riding high in 2007. On November 15th they were in the national title hunt with a record of 8-1 coming off wins over top Pac-10 contenders USC and Arizona State, and boasted a leading Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Dennis Dixon. Then on a Thursday night in Arizona Dixon got hurt and everything went down hill from there. The Ducks suffered serious injuries to just about every skill player on offense and they finished with a whimper, losing their last three ballgames. The long break between the regular season and the Sun Bowl seemed to work wonders on the confidence level of the team because they stomped South Florida 56-21, a team that was ranked #2 in the nation at one point. The off-season did even more good because several key players were able to recover from injuries that forced them out of action a year ago.

OFFENSE
Now that everybody is through pouting over Dixon's injury, the offense can get back to what they were doing - lighting up scoreboards on a weekly basis (38.2 points per game was tops in the Pac-10 in '07). Nathan Costa - who many Duck fans claim would have kept the ship afloat in Dixon's absence if not for his own injury problems - is supposedly a much better fit for the offense than Brady Leaf and Justin Roper and whoever else got a turn filling in last year. If he can run it half as well as Dixon did, Oregon will be in good hands.

Running back Jonathan Stewart was a beast last year (1,722 yards, 11 tds), but his shoes will be easier to fill than Dixon's. Jeremiah Johnson, one of the many Duck players who missed a significant portion of last season due to injury, is a severely underrated back who will explode onto the Pac-10 scene as the starter in '08. He has great elusiveness, good speed, and a wicked stiff arm, and I rank him as the top running back in the conference. Junior college transfer LeGarrette Blount is a big, bruising tailback who will also get carries to keep Johnson fresh and wear down defenses with his hard-nosed running style. A ground game that averaged 251.7 yards per game (6th nationally) and lost its top two rushers might actually turn out to be just as potent in 2008 thanks to this duo. They'll also be aided up front by the return of center Max Unger, an All America candidate, and two other starters to the offensive line.

The receiving corps may not be made up of a bunch of speed burners, but the top two targets, WR Jaison Williams (55 receptions for 844 yards, 8 tds) and TE Ed Dickson (43 receptions for 453 yards, 3 tds) are imposing figures, each listed at 6-foot-5, 240 lbs. Williams in particular has a chance to be a huge mismatch against smaller defensive backs, but he'll need to take his game to the next level and show more consistency. Wide receivers Jeffrey Maehl and Aaron Pflugrad each saw time as true freshmen a year ago and provide the promise of being solid complements to Dickson and Williams.

DEFENSE
The Oregon defense can give up chunks of yards from time to time, but they pride themselves on being able to come up with big game-changing plays as well. With seven starters and all the top playmakers returning to a defense that posted 38 sacks and 20 interceptions last season, this has the makings of one of the Pac-10's best defenses.

Senior rover Patrick Chung briefly considered entering the NFL Draft a year early, but decided to come back to Eugene for one more season to lead an excellent secondary to a potential Pac-10 title. Chung, who led the team with 117 tackles in '07, is joined by an excellent pair of junior corners. Jairus Byrd and Walter Thurmond are excellent in man coverage who combined for 12 interceptions and 33 passes deflected and will make life difficult for opposing quarterbacks. Willie Glasper is another junior cornerback who plays in nickel situations.

The linebackers spots are up in the air at the moment. Jerome Boyd is a senior and probably the best of the bunch, but his health is a question heading into the season. Junior Kevin Garrett is suspended indefinitely. Kenny Rowe racked up five sacks as a true freshman while playing defensive end in '07, and he was moved to linebacker in the hopes that his size and athleticism will be better used in the linebacking corps.

Up front the Ducks are much more stable. Nick Reed and Will Tukafu bring pressure from the ends - Reed led the Pac-10 last season with 12 sacks and 22.5 tackles for loss - while veterans Cole Linehan and Ra'Shon Harris, and sophomore Tonio Celotto will team up to clog the middle.

KEEP AN EYE ON
Quarterback Nick Costa. He missed all of last season and spring practices due to his injured knee, so his health is still in question. He also doesn't have much game experience at all, so he'll have to handle that obstacle as well.

RISING STARS
Running backs Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount. Both backs will step into the spotlight this year as they replace first round draft pick Jonathan Stewart. With the questions surrounding the quarterback spot, the running game will probably be featured even more in '08, and both of these players will be up to the challenge.

Pac-10 QB Rankings

1. Mark Sanchez, USC
2. Rudy Carpenter, Arizona State
3. Willie Tuitama, Arizona

Keep An Eye On:
Kevin Craft, UCLA
Nathan Costa, Oregon