WEEK TWELVE - Preview

Sure, it’s hard to find games under the national radar in a week where seemingly every game is flying under the radar. There isn’t a single Top 25 matchup on the schedule, but I’ll give you three non-BCS conference games that will have an impact on the bowl season.

East Carolina (6-3) at Southern Miss (4-6)
(Saturday, 2 pm)
With new head coach Larry Fedora, you can expect Southern Miss to be a point scoring machine in a couple years. Fedora has made progress in his first season, and has some impressive weapons at his disposal on offense (RB Damion Fletcher, TE Shawn Nelson, WR DeAndre Brown). East Carolina started off the 2008 season with a bang, upsetting Virginia Tech and West Virginia on consecutive weekends. But since then a couple key injuries and a quarterback rotation derailed the season. ECU has picked up the pace with three straight wins, and Patrick Pinkney appears to have the quarterback job all to himself again. That’s all I need to know to give Skip Holtz’s veteran squad the advantage.
J.Pike’s Pick: East Carolina 24, Southern Miss 17

San Jose State (6-4) at Nevada (5-4)
(Saturday, 3 pm)
Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is really starting to come into his own. The sophomore kept Fresno State off balance all game long last Thursday night en route to an easy Wolfpack victory. Bruising Vai Taua is also emerging as one of the most productive running backs in the WAC. His impressive season total of 1,159 yards rushing this year includes the 263 yards he went for against Fresno State last week. San Jose State on the other hand is in a slump, losing two of their last three. Spartan quarterback Kyle Reed looked really good early in the season, but like the rest of the team, his play has declined of late. With home field advantage, Nevada will continue their late season surge with another impressive win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Nevada 26, San Jose State 17

Tulsa (8-1) at Houston (5-4)
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
Neither one of these teams cares much about playing defense (Tulsa allows 388.6 yards per game; Houston gives up 385.2). However both are accomplished offensively, as they combine to score an average of 89.8 points per game, so this one has the look of a shootout. New Houston head coach Kevin Sumlin looks to have the Cougars on the right track, and with home field advantage they are more than capable of handing Tulsa their second loss in as many games. But the Golden Hurrican used their off week to stew over the Arkansas loss and will be ready to play. I expect senior quarterback David Johnson to lead a more complete Tulsa team to a high scoring win over a still-growing Houston team.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 54, Houston 44

WEEK ELEVEN - Gameday Preview

As proven by the exciting Mountain West showdown between TCU and Utah Thursday night, if you go off the BCS map a little bit you can find some gems. This weekend I feature a couple of rare non-conference matchups with excitement potential. There’s also a Mountain West game that should be important to the residents of Colorado, and might play a role in determining which team makes a bowl game this postseason.

Illinois (5-4) vs Western Michigan (7-2)
(@ Detroit, MI)
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN360.com)
This is an interesting late season, inter-conference, neutral location matchup. Illinois had high expectations for this season but come in with a disappointing 5-4 record. Western Michigan on the other hand is sitting pretty in the MAC at 7-2. Quarterback Tim Hiller should be able to pile up some stats against a suspect Illinois defense, and I think the underrated Western secondary highlighted by corners E.J. Biggers and Londen Fryar will actually be able to contain the Juice Williams-to-Arrelious Benn combo. Give me the Broncos over the consistently under-performing Illini.
J.Pike’s Pick: Western Michigan 32, Illinois 27

Colorado State (4-5) at Air Force (7-2)
(Saturday, 5 pm, the mtn.)
Colorado State pushed BYU to the limit last weekend before eventually falling to Max Hall and company. Look for the Rams to ride the momentum built by that performance, along with their superior skill to an upset win over the Air Force Academy.
J.Pike’s Pick: Colorado State 30, Air Force 26

UTEP (3-5) at Louisiana-Lafayette (5-3)
(Saturday, 6 pm, ESPN360.com)
Odds are this will be one of those games where the teams combine to go over 1,000 yards. UTEP chooses to move the ball through the air on the strength of Trevor Vittatoe’s arm. Louisiana-Lafayette prefers the ground game. Quarterback Michael Desormeaux and running back Tyrell Fenroy lead a ground attack that averages 301.3 yards per game against a weak Miner defense that allows 208.8 rushing yards per game. Desormeaux and Fenroy will combine to go over 300 yards on the ground and lead the Ragin’ Cajuns to victory in what should be a high scoring, back and forth contest.
J.Pike’s Pick: UL-Lafayette 43, UTEP 37

WEEK TEN - Preview

With two top ten matchups (Texas at Texas Tech & Florida vs Georgia), one of the best traditional rivalries (Nebraska at Oklahoma), and perhaps the final Spurrier/Fulmer meeting on the docket this weekend it would be easy to overlook the rest of the schedule. But here are three games flying under the radar you should know about. One will be a good old fashioned smashmouth football game with a spotlight on running the football and playing defense; another features a future potential Faulk Trophy winner; and the other is going to be a shootout in which 40 points probably won’t be enough to get the win.

Temple (3-5) @ Navy (5-3)
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS College Sports)
If you’re looking for a good old fashioned smashmouth football game this weekend, you should probably tune in to CBS College Sports at about 2:30 this weekend. Navy will roll out their triple option attack and try to penetrate the solid Temple defense. To give you an idea of how old fashioned this game could be, consider this: Navy didn’t thorw a single pass in their win over SMU a week ago. With quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada back in the fold, they’ll have at least the threat of a play action pass, but you can still bet on the ball staying on the ground more often than not. That is a direct challenge to a surprisingly stout Temple defense. The veteran Owls, led by Junior Galette, have been terrorizing MAC foes of late. In their five conference games they have limited opponents to 66 rushing yards (2.0 yards per carry!), and 16.2 points per game – not too shabby. But I don’t think Temple has enough offense to pull out a victory.
J.Pike’s Pick: Navy 17, Temple 10

UAB (2-6) @ Southern Miss (2-6)
(Saturday, 7 pm)
Sure, these two teams only have four wins between them this year. But there will be enough young talent on the field that you should pay attention anyway because both of these programs are capable of taking a big step forward in Conference USA next year. New Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora has a good offensive mind, and he’s got some weapons at his disposal. Junior running back headlines the attack with 969 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. But freshman wide receiver DeAndre Brown is the player that has Golden Eagle fans excited. At 6-foot-5, Brown is piling up touchdowns at an alarming rate (9 so far) thanks to the mismatches he creates in the red zone. But the Blazers possess possibly the most exciting player you’ve never heard of in junior quarterback Joe Webb. Webb is an excellent athlete that is improving his passing every week. He has the numbers (1,726 yards, 8 td passing; 723 yards 7 td rushing) that will put him in the running for the Faulk Trophy next season if he gets a little more help around him. Look for this game to be close at halftime, but Southern Miss will pull away in the second half as UAB has consistently played poorly after halftime this season.
J.Pike’s Pick: Southern Miss 31, UAB 20

Rice (5-3) @ UTEP (3-4)
(Saturday, 8:05 pm)
I’m not sure why this game isn’t on television because it should be the highest scoring game of the weekend hands down. Rice won last year’s meeting despite giving up 48 points. This year both teams will be without top defensive players this week due to injury, so the Owls might need to score more than 56 this time around to secure the W. Oh yeah, I should also mention that Rice is allowing 36.5 points per game, and last week UTEP gave up 77 points and 791 yards to Tulsa! Each quarterback should have a field day Saturday night. Euless Trinity alum Trevor Vittatoe paces the Miners with his excellent 16-4 TD/INT ratio. Chase Clement is like a mini-Colt McCoy (2,360 yards, 24 td passing; 402 yards, 7 td rushing) and has positioned himself as a serious underdog candidate for the Faulk Trophy. I’ll give the slight edge to Rice here because although they don’t have as much talent as UTEP does on paper, they have played more consistently up to this point.
J.Pike’s Pick: Rice 63, UTEP 51

WEEK NINE - Preview

There is plenty of intrigue in the schedule this week with four matchups featuring top 16 teams. There is also upset potential all over as 13 top 25 teams must play away from home. But here are three games that aren’t on the national radar that have interesting storylines as well.

SMU @ Navy
This is quite the study in contrasting styles. New SMU head coach June Jones obviously likes to let it fly as he proved so often as the architect of Hawaii’s high flying offense the last several years. Navy on the other hand will run the triple option on first, second, AND third down until you stop them. Then they’ll run some more. Jones isn’t earning his $2 million a year yet, and I’m not sure he ever will. Go with the ground game in this one, even if Navy quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada Nahasapeemapetilon has to miss another game due to his lingering hamstring injury. Running back Shun White (averaging 110 yards per game) will pick up the slack.
J.Pike’s Pick: Navy 30, SMU 20

Ole Miss @ Arkansas
The Nutt Bowl! Despite a successful 8-4 regular season capped by a win over eventual national champion LSU, Houston Nutt was unceremoniously run out of Fayetteville. Arkansas fans have been rewarded with a head coach known more for his disloyalty than his coaching ability, a team that won’t make a bowl game, and a defense that is often allergic to tackling - maybe they should bring in that referee from the South Carolina/LSU game last week! [LINK] That bodes well for Dexter McCluster, the speedy all-purpose threat who will get the ball a number of different ways in this ballgame, including direct snaps at quarterback. Rising freshman running back Enrique Davis should also take advantage of the generous Hogs defense. And keep your eye on Ole Miss defensive end Greg Hardy – he’s an underrated talent that you might know more about if he hadn’t missed so much time early this year due to injury.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ole Miss 28, Arkansas 20

Notre Dame @ Washington
Tyrone Willingham gets to host his former team for what is looking more and more like the last time. At 0-6, the entire state of Washington has basically signed off on his termination at the end of the season. I’m not sure I totally agree with that move, but his record definitely doesn’t help him out. Even without quarterback Jake Locker I still think Washington has some decent young players on the roster, and don’t forget they took BYU down to the wire earlier this year. Notre Dame and Jimmy Clausen seem to finally be growing up, so they should be able to pull out a win in Seattle. But it will be tougher than you might expect.
J.Pike’s Pick: Notre Dame 33, Washington 27

WEEK SEVEN - Preview

Now it’s time for our weekly look at the games that are flying under the national radar. TCU is on upset alert this weekend as they travel to Colorado Springs to face a new coach and a team that appears to be improving every week. And two matchups in the MAC should have a direct impact on the conference title game in that conference.

TCU @ Colorado State
New head coach Steve Fairchild is doing a good job so far at Colorado State. The Rams are 3-2 and have been steadily improving every week. Wide receiver Rashaun Greer (6th nationally with 570 receiving yards) has been a key component in an offense averaging a respectable 260.8 passing yards per game, and he’ll give TCU’s stout defense something to think about. TCU’s running game is strong this year, averaging 246.7 yards per game, but the passing game isn’t going to scare anybody. There’s also the look-ahead factor for the Frogs as they have nationally ranked BYU on the schedule next week. If Colorado State can load up the box and take away the TCU ground game, they’ll be able to put enough points on the board to give Fairchild his first big win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Colorado State 28, TCU 24

Western Michigan @ Buffalo
Western Michigan is 4-1 and looking like a serious contender in the MAC. Quarterback Tim Hiller leads an offense that is clicking right now, averaging 32.2 points per game. But Hiller doesn’t always play well on the road. Buffalo head coach Turner Gill will make it difficult on Hiller to sit back in the pocket and without being pressured, and that will knock him off his game. Meanwhile, Drew Willy and the offense will produce the knockout punch and climb back into the thick of the MAC race.
J.Pike’s Pick: Buffalo 31, Western Michigan 27

Temple @ Central Michigan
Ever since quarterback Dan LeFevour stepped on campus, the Chippewas have been the big shots in the MAC. LeFevour put up incredible numbers a year ago (compare them to Tim Tebow if you like), and he’s one of the better non-BCS quarterbacks around. Temple though brings a very good, very experienced defense to the table. The Owls are limiting opponents to only 18.5 points per game (3rd in the MAC) and will challenge LeFevour and the offense from start to finish. Unfortunately Temple doesn’t have enough offense to pull the upset though.
J.Pike’s Pick: Central Michigan 21, Temple 14

WEEK SIX - Preview

Now it’s time for our weekly look at the games that are flying under the national radar. The Commander In Chief Trophy is up for grabs in the Navy/Air Force game. The winner will have a leg up since Army doesn’t look to be a real threat. Conference USA is still wide open so UTEP and Southern Miss will battle to get in the race early. There are also key games in the second tier of the Mountain West and the MAC that could make the difference in who gets a bowl berth and who stays home in the post season.

UTEP @ Southern Miss
UTEP stumbled out of the gate this season, but coming off a big 58-13 win over Central Florida they look like they have finally found themselves. Quarterback Trevor Vittatoe and running back Terrell Jackson are underrated offensive weapons in Conference USA, and Southern Miss doesn’t play the same brand of fiery defense they played under the previous coaching staff. The Eagles have offensive weapons too, but UTEP has the better quarterback. The Miners are a team gaining momentum and they’ll pull off the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: UTEP 32, Southern Miss 27

UNLV @ Colorado State
In 50 mph winds last season, these two teams paired up to produce a combined 1,049 yards of offense. Colorado State was able to capitalize on 5 UNLV turnovers to win 48-23, despite giving up 559 yards. The weather won’t be the same again this year, but the UNLV offense essentially is. Omar Clayton is back at quarterback and executing Mike Sanford’s offense better than anybody in Sanford’s four years as head coach. On the other side of the field, new CSU head coach Steve Fairchild has struggled to fully implement his new offense. In the early going the Rams are scoring only 18.8 points per game, so look for UNLV to take better care of the ball and break their five game losing streak in this series.
J.Pike’s Pick: UNLV 30, Colorado State 26

Ball State @ Toledo
Toledo might have been suffering from a little bit of the old “look-ahead” when they lost to Florida International a week ago. Ball State is on top of the MAC right now with a 5-0 record, but they will play this game without one of their top players, Dante Love. Love suffered a spine injury a couple weeks ago and may never play football again. Quarterback Nate Davis is still around though, so don’t expect too much of a drop-off offensively. Home field advantage has been important in this series over the last decade or so (the home team is 11-3-1 since ’93), and I think Toledo will show up ready to play. I like Ball State, but this game has “upset” written all over it.
J.Pike’s Pick: Toledo 36, Ball State 31

Navy @ Air Force
You might be able to count the number of pass attempts in this game on one hand. Air Force (ironically) avoids the air at all cost while taking advantage of opponents’ mistakes better than anybody else in the country. Navy plays a similar style of football, but quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada Nahasapeemapetilon and running back Shun White have more big play ability than anybody on the Air Force offense. That will be the difference in the game, so go ahead and give Navy the Commander In Chief Trophy.
J.Pike’s Pick: Navy 27, Air Force 19

WEEK FIVE - Preview

Now it’s time for our weekly look at a handful of games that are flying under the national radar. Of the four games listed below, two are MAC matchups that should have a big impact on who makes it to the conference championship game. The other two matchups are in-state rivalry games, each featuring a team on the cusp of the top 25. All four games warrant at least a glance at the ticker because you’ll see the majority of these teams in bowl games at the end of the season.

Western Michigan @ Temple
When Western Michigan’s offense takes the field against Temple’s defense it will be team strength versus team strength. Western quarterback Tim Hiller has above average skills in the passing game, but he has shown that he can be rattled. So that’s exactly what John Haley and the Temple defense will try to do. The Owls’ defense has been decent so far this season, giving up less than 200 passing yards per game. Hiller has been on top of his game lately though, and he’ll get the job done in a tougher than anticipated game in Philadelphia.
J.Pike’s Pick: Western Michigan 28, Temple 20

Marshall @ West Virginia
This in-state rivalry ended up as a blowout a year ago, but Marshall actually led 13-6 at halftime. Mark Snyder finally has the Marshall program back on track after three straight sub-.500 seasons. The Herd sits at 3-1 (the lone loss was a competitive game against #9 Wisconsin) thanks to the play of their experienced defense. Marshall is limiting opponents to 118 rushing yards per game so far. Offensively the passing game is clicking due to the play of wide receiver Darius Passmore (26 receptions for 473 yards, 4 tds). Passmore has given freshman Mark Cann a reliable, playmaking target, which is always nice for a young quarterback. West Virginia on the other hand is 1-2 and struggling with their offensive identity. It seemed like new offensive coordinator Jeff Mullen wanted to make Pat White a pocket passer the first couple weeks, but got back to the running game against Colorado that won them 33 games in the past three seasons. The offense is still way to predictable, but there’s still enough speed between White and Noel Devine to score enough points to win this game.
J.Pike’s Pick: West Virginia 32, Marshall 27

Buffalo @ Central Michigan
It’s time. Turner Gill has slowly built this Buffalo program into one of the elite in the MAC. Central Michigan has been the measuring stick the last couple years thanks to quarterback Dan LeFevour’s Tebow-esque stats, but now is when Buffalo makes their move. Drew Willy has been playing lights out this year and he’ll guide the Bulls on another last minute touchdown drive to seal the biggest win in school history.
J.Pike’s Pick: Buffalo 28, Central Michigan 27

Nevada @ UNLV
UNLV’s upset of Arizona State two weeks ago is just one of the many examples of the quality and depth of the Mountain West conference this year. Led by sophomore quarterback Omar Conner, the Rebels are 3-1 and on the top 25 radar for the first time in a long time. I don’t know if Mike Sanford is chewing on any towels on the sidelines, but he should be. On the other sideline, Chris Ault leads Nevada with his innovative “Pistol” offense. The Pistol is now popping into playbooks at places like Florida and Ohio State, but Ault is the creator. Nevada has already played two top 15 teams this year, so don’t let their poor record fool you. The Wolfpack has beaten UNLV each of the last three years, but it looks like UNLV has finally turned the corner.
J.Pike’s Pick: UNLV 27, Nevada 24

Week Three Preview

Here are a few games that deserve your attention despite the fact they aren’t getting the hype of, say, Ohio State v USC this week. Each contest features non-BCS conference teams that will be in contention for bowl games and conference titles.

Central Michigan @ Ohio
Fresh off their near up set of Ohio State, the Bobcats of Ohio get to face MAC favorite Central Michigan. Central is coming off a big loss to #1 ranked Georgia, so they’ll be hungry to face someone on their own level again. Dan LeFevour will be too much for the Ohio defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Central Michigan 34, Ohio 20

Air Force @ Houston
This might be the toughest game of the week to pick. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has done extremely well so far in Colorado Springs, and he looks to have a pretty good defense in tow this season. New Houston head coach Kevin Sumlin has been up and down in his first two games at the helm, and so far he can’t count on his defense to come up with stops. This game could go either way, but I’ll go with the disciplined Falcons of Air Force in a difficult non-conference road game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Air Force 28, Houston 24

Rice @ Vanderbilt
Both teams are 2-0 and coming off big wins. Vanderbilt came up with one of the program’s biggest wins in recent memory when they knocked off South Carolina on Thursday night. Rice simply scored three touchdowns in the final 7 minutes, including a game winning interception return for a touchdown with 11 seconds left, to overcome a 15 point 4th quarter deficit. This should be one of the more entertaining games of the week.
J.Pike’s Pick: Vanderbilt 31, Rice 27

Southern Miss @ Arkansas State
Who knew this would be a game to watch? Arkansas State jumped on my radar with a win over Texas A&M in week one, and Southern Miss was able to keep it relatively close against Auburn last week. I think Arkansas State’s bubble bursts here. Southern Miss has a talented team with a very potent offense. Corey Leonard and Arkansas State might pile 80+ points on 1-AA competition, but they won’t here. Welcome to the Mid-Leagues, Red Wolves.
J.Pike’s Pick: Southern Miss 34, Arkansas State 24

Bowling Green @ Boise State
Ian Johnson, the man responsible for scoring the game winning 2-point conversion against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl two seasons ago, is still in the backfield for the Broncos. That means he’ll get the ball early and often. Bowling Green visits the Smurf Turf after a puzzling first two weeks that saw them beat Pittsburgh and then get blown out by Minnesota. Boise shouldn’t have any problems, especially running the football.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 37, Bowling Green 21

WEEK ONE - Under the Radar

TCU

at
New Mexico

(Saturday, 5pm, VS)

TCU has owned Rocky Long’s Lobos since joining the Mountain West. Last season the Frogs played their best game of the season and won by a whopping margin of 37-0.

New Mexico’s hopes of reversing the recent trend ride squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Donovan Porterie and running back Rodney Ferguson. There is no doubt this is one of the best backfield duos in the conference.

Porterie is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. However he played one of the worst games of his career against TCU in 2007. Porterie was hurried all game long by the aggressive Horned Frog defense and the UNM offense managed to pick up only six first downs.

In order to keep the pressure off Porterie, Ferguson will have to step up his game. Expect to see backup Paul Baker in this game if Ferguson’s bruising running style is once again shut down by the aggressive TCU defense. Baker’s speed could be a nice change of pace for the offense.

Solid defensive play has been a staple of the Gary Patterson era. Defensive tackle James Vess is back after sitting out last season due to a suspension. He joins Cody Moore and Kelly Griffin to form the best trio of tackles in the MWC. These three will once again be tasked with shutting down Ferguson.

The TCU offense is nothing to write home about though. Sophomore Andy Dalton has proven to be nothing more than a serviceable quarterback so far in his career. Against the veteran Lobo secondary, which features All-MWC corner DeAndre Wright, expect Dalton to struggle in the passing game.

New Mexico has the home field advantage in this game, as well as the superior offensive skill talent, but TCU has a fine defense that can take the crowd out of the game. Plus Gary Patterson has had Rocky Long’s number, winning the last three matchups by a combined score of 113-49. Porterie will play much better than he did in this game last season, but in the end the TCU defense is just too good.

J.Pikes Pick: TCU 18, New Mexico 13

Thanks to the Helmet Project for the team helmet logos