Eaglebank Bowl Preview

EAGLEBANK BOWL

Washingon, D.C.
December 20, 2008

Navy (8-4) vs Wake Forest (7-5)
(Saturday, 10 am, ESPN)

The first game of the bowl season is actually a rematch. Back on my sister's birthday (September 27) Navy forced 6 turnovers in a 24-17 win. The overrated Riley Skinner threw 40 passes and 4 interceptions, and there's a reason Wake went away from the passing game after this loss.

This game might have a different ending though. With Wake coach Jim Grobe playing the field position game and leaning on his excellent defense, I think Wake has the advantage. Navy is a fine, disciplined football team that should be able to shut down the Demon Deacon offense once again, but I'm not sure where their points are going to come from.

Wake is paced defensively by Deion Award Finalist Alphonso Smith and stud linebacker Aaron Curry, who is a lock to be a first day selection in the NFL Draft. The defense, along with excellent special teams play, will put the offense in good field position often enough for Wake Forest to finish a disappointing season on a high note.

J.Pike's Pick: Wake Forest 20, Navy 17

WEEK FIFTEEN - Preview

#19 Pitt (8-3) at UConn (7-4)
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
Pittsburgh seems to be finding their stride of late, but winning in Storrs, Connecticut is never easy. This matchup features two of the best running backs in the Big East Conference in Pitt's LeSean McCoy and UConn's Donald Brown. I like UConn to upset the ever-underachieving Panthers here on the shoulders of their defense and Brown's running.
J.Pike's Pick: UConn 27, Pitt 24

Army (3-8) vs Navy (7-4)
@ Philadelphia, PA
(Saturday, 11 am, CBS)
Sure, Navy has won six games in a row by a commanding average score of 40-12; and the records look to be lopsided yet again in 2008. But since Stan Brock called out his team early this season, the Cadets have been playing a lot better. This game also happens to feature the bottom two ranked passing attacks in Division 1A. The two teams combined average a paltry 109.2 yards per game through the air; both have played a full game in the 2008 season without completing a pass; and both teams have attempted fewer than five passes in a game four times. Don't be surprised if you don't see a single pass thrown today. What that means is that this game will come down to who wants it more. Army has been blown out six years in a row, and even though it looks on paper like they'll get blown out again, I think this is the year they break the streak.
J.Pike's Pick: Army 20, Navy 17

Washington (0-11) at #24 California (7-4)
(Saturday, 2 pm, FSN)
Cal shouldn't have any problems putting the capper on Washington's winless season.
J.Pike's Pick: California 42, Washington 12

#6 USC (10-1), at UCLA (4-7)
(Saturday, 3:30 pm, ABC)
I really wish people would quit blaming the Bruins awful season on Karl Dorrell. For one thing, he's not the coach anymore, and secondly, at least he made it to a bowl game with this team last year. UCLA isn't bad because Karl Dorrell "couldn't recruit", they are bad because they ran a perfectly good coach out of town to hire that dirtbag Rick Neuheisel. Have fun going 4-8 for the next three years, Bruins.
J.Pike's Pick: USC 36, UCLA 6

#21 Missouri (9-3) vs #3 Oklahoma (11-1)
@ St. Louis, MO
(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
I'd like to point out that I didn't include this game in the writeup for the conference championship games because I don't recognize this as a conference championship game. It's hard for me to understand how the winner of this game can be considered the Big XII Champ when there is team sitting at home that beat both of these teams during the regular season, and has an equal or better record than both of them. So call me a hater if you must, but I'm considering this just another regular season Big XII matchup and handing the de-facto Big XII title to Texas, no matter what the outcome here is.
J.Pike's Pick: I hope it snows.

#11 Cincinnati (10-2) at Hawaii (7-5)
(Saturday, 10:30 pm, ESPN 2)
Big East champion Cincinnati has a BCS bowl berth locked up and a Heisman hopeful at quarterback, but they are no lock to win on the island. The Warriors had a rough start to the season but they have finally settled on a quarterback. Junior Greg Alexander has started the last five games and played well, leading the team to a 4-1 record over that stretch. But Cincinnati has secret weapon Tony Pike in the shotgun. Pike will be able to lead a late Bearcat touchdown drive to win the game if necessary.
J.Pike's Pick: Cincinnati 27, Hawaii 25

Gameday Commentary - 11 o'clock games

Notre Dame 27, Navy 21

Navy nearly made their second remarkable fourth quarter comeback in as many weeks. Trailing 27-7 in the fourth quarter, sophomore quarterback Ricky Dobbs sparked a comeback that included two onside kick recoveries, but fell just short.

Notre Dame displayed an excellent running game. The three headed monster of James Aldridge, Armando Allen, and Robert Hughes combined to pound the undersized Navy defense to the tune of 230 rushing yards.

Yet again, Jimmy Clausen was inconsistent and threw two interceptions. If Notre Dame wants to get better, they'll rely more on their solid running game than on the unreliable arm of the overconfident Clausen.

Keep an eye on Navy's Dobbs. I have a feeling you'll be hearing a lot about him over the next two years. He's got great athleticism to run the triple option, but he has a stronger arm than any Navy quarterback in recent memory.

Northwestern 21, Michigan 14
Michigan lost their school record 8th game of the season in snow flurries against Northwestern. I know this is going to prompt even more criticism from Michigan fans and the national media, but everyone needs to hit the breaks a little bit.

Sure, and 8-loss season is something Michigan should never have to experience, but when you consider the magnitude of the overhaul taking place to the offense, you have to expect some setbacks. Watching the game, I didn't get the feeling that Michigan was a terrible team. Defensively they are actually quite good.

The 2008 Wolverines are simply a team in transition, and hasn't been able to catch any breaks this season. So lay off Rich Rodriguez (at least for the time being), because he needs at least a couple more years to get his players in place before it's fair to make a judgment on the job he is doing in Ann Arbor.

Georgia 17, Auburn, 13
As expected this was an ugly, low scoring game. Auburn proved to me they haven't quit on this season. Despite all the coaching turmoil and the mounting losses, the Auburn players were still giving a solid effort on the field, and almost pulled the upset.

The main question I had watching the game is: what in the world was Tony Franklin thinking? For some reason, Franklin had it in his head that Chris Todd was a better quarterback than Kodi Burns. Well, he couldn't have been more wrong - and maybe that had something to do with his firing at mid-season.

Burns played a solid game against Georgia. His athleticism is obviously far superior to Todd's, but Burns proved to me today that he is a much better pocket passer as well. Burns has a stronger arm, and more importantly, doesn't panic in the pocket and make stupid throws the way Todd did. In the SEC, you can't have a quarterback that can't handle a pass rush.

WEEK TEN - Preview

With two top ten matchups (Texas at Texas Tech & Florida vs Georgia), one of the best traditional rivalries (Nebraska at Oklahoma), and perhaps the final Spurrier/Fulmer meeting on the docket this weekend it would be easy to overlook the rest of the schedule. But here are three games flying under the radar you should know about. One will be a good old fashioned smashmouth football game with a spotlight on running the football and playing defense; another features a future potential Faulk Trophy winner; and the other is going to be a shootout in which 40 points probably won’t be enough to get the win.

Temple (3-5) @ Navy (5-3)
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS College Sports)
If you’re looking for a good old fashioned smashmouth football game this weekend, you should probably tune in to CBS College Sports at about 2:30 this weekend. Navy will roll out their triple option attack and try to penetrate the solid Temple defense. To give you an idea of how old fashioned this game could be, consider this: Navy didn’t thorw a single pass in their win over SMU a week ago. With quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada back in the fold, they’ll have at least the threat of a play action pass, but you can still bet on the ball staying on the ground more often than not. That is a direct challenge to a surprisingly stout Temple defense. The veteran Owls, led by Junior Galette, have been terrorizing MAC foes of late. In their five conference games they have limited opponents to 66 rushing yards (2.0 yards per carry!), and 16.2 points per game – not too shabby. But I don’t think Temple has enough offense to pull out a victory.
J.Pike’s Pick: Navy 17, Temple 10

UAB (2-6) @ Southern Miss (2-6)
(Saturday, 7 pm)
Sure, these two teams only have four wins between them this year. But there will be enough young talent on the field that you should pay attention anyway because both of these programs are capable of taking a big step forward in Conference USA next year. New Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora has a good offensive mind, and he’s got some weapons at his disposal. Junior running back headlines the attack with 969 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. But freshman wide receiver DeAndre Brown is the player that has Golden Eagle fans excited. At 6-foot-5, Brown is piling up touchdowns at an alarming rate (9 so far) thanks to the mismatches he creates in the red zone. But the Blazers possess possibly the most exciting player you’ve never heard of in junior quarterback Joe Webb. Webb is an excellent athlete that is improving his passing every week. He has the numbers (1,726 yards, 8 td passing; 723 yards 7 td rushing) that will put him in the running for the Faulk Trophy next season if he gets a little more help around him. Look for this game to be close at halftime, but Southern Miss will pull away in the second half as UAB has consistently played poorly after halftime this season.
J.Pike’s Pick: Southern Miss 31, UAB 20

Rice (5-3) @ UTEP (3-4)
(Saturday, 8:05 pm)
I’m not sure why this game isn’t on television because it should be the highest scoring game of the weekend hands down. Rice won last year’s meeting despite giving up 48 points. This year both teams will be without top defensive players this week due to injury, so the Owls might need to score more than 56 this time around to secure the W. Oh yeah, I should also mention that Rice is allowing 36.5 points per game, and last week UTEP gave up 77 points and 791 yards to Tulsa! Each quarterback should have a field day Saturday night. Euless Trinity alum Trevor Vittatoe paces the Miners with his excellent 16-4 TD/INT ratio. Chase Clement is like a mini-Colt McCoy (2,360 yards, 24 td passing; 402 yards, 7 td rushing) and has positioned himself as a serious underdog candidate for the Faulk Trophy. I’ll give the slight edge to Rice here because although they don’t have as much talent as UTEP does on paper, they have played more consistently up to this point.
J.Pike’s Pick: Rice 63, UTEP 51

WEEK NINE - Preview

There is plenty of intrigue in the schedule this week with four matchups featuring top 16 teams. There is also upset potential all over as 13 top 25 teams must play away from home. But here are three games that aren’t on the national radar that have interesting storylines as well.

SMU @ Navy
This is quite the study in contrasting styles. New SMU head coach June Jones obviously likes to let it fly as he proved so often as the architect of Hawaii’s high flying offense the last several years. Navy on the other hand will run the triple option on first, second, AND third down until you stop them. Then they’ll run some more. Jones isn’t earning his $2 million a year yet, and I’m not sure he ever will. Go with the ground game in this one, even if Navy quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada Nahasapeemapetilon has to miss another game due to his lingering hamstring injury. Running back Shun White (averaging 110 yards per game) will pick up the slack.
J.Pike’s Pick: Navy 30, SMU 20

Ole Miss @ Arkansas
The Nutt Bowl! Despite a successful 8-4 regular season capped by a win over eventual national champion LSU, Houston Nutt was unceremoniously run out of Fayetteville. Arkansas fans have been rewarded with a head coach known more for his disloyalty than his coaching ability, a team that won’t make a bowl game, and a defense that is often allergic to tackling - maybe they should bring in that referee from the South Carolina/LSU game last week! [LINK] That bodes well for Dexter McCluster, the speedy all-purpose threat who will get the ball a number of different ways in this ballgame, including direct snaps at quarterback. Rising freshman running back Enrique Davis should also take advantage of the generous Hogs defense. And keep your eye on Ole Miss defensive end Greg Hardy – he’s an underrated talent that you might know more about if he hadn’t missed so much time early this year due to injury.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ole Miss 28, Arkansas 20

Notre Dame @ Washington
Tyrone Willingham gets to host his former team for what is looking more and more like the last time. At 0-6, the entire state of Washington has basically signed off on his termination at the end of the season. I’m not sure I totally agree with that move, but his record definitely doesn’t help him out. Even without quarterback Jake Locker I still think Washington has some decent young players on the roster, and don’t forget they took BYU down to the wire earlier this year. Notre Dame and Jimmy Clausen seem to finally be growing up, so they should be able to pull out a win in Seattle. But it will be tougher than you might expect.
J.Pike’s Pick: Notre Dame 33, Washington 27

WEEK SIX - Preview

Now it’s time for our weekly look at the games that are flying under the national radar. The Commander In Chief Trophy is up for grabs in the Navy/Air Force game. The winner will have a leg up since Army doesn’t look to be a real threat. Conference USA is still wide open so UTEP and Southern Miss will battle to get in the race early. There are also key games in the second tier of the Mountain West and the MAC that could make the difference in who gets a bowl berth and who stays home in the post season.

UTEP @ Southern Miss
UTEP stumbled out of the gate this season, but coming off a big 58-13 win over Central Florida they look like they have finally found themselves. Quarterback Trevor Vittatoe and running back Terrell Jackson are underrated offensive weapons in Conference USA, and Southern Miss doesn’t play the same brand of fiery defense they played under the previous coaching staff. The Eagles have offensive weapons too, but UTEP has the better quarterback. The Miners are a team gaining momentum and they’ll pull off the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: UTEP 32, Southern Miss 27

UNLV @ Colorado State
In 50 mph winds last season, these two teams paired up to produce a combined 1,049 yards of offense. Colorado State was able to capitalize on 5 UNLV turnovers to win 48-23, despite giving up 559 yards. The weather won’t be the same again this year, but the UNLV offense essentially is. Omar Clayton is back at quarterback and executing Mike Sanford’s offense better than anybody in Sanford’s four years as head coach. On the other side of the field, new CSU head coach Steve Fairchild has struggled to fully implement his new offense. In the early going the Rams are scoring only 18.8 points per game, so look for UNLV to take better care of the ball and break their five game losing streak in this series.
J.Pike’s Pick: UNLV 30, Colorado State 26

Ball State @ Toledo
Toledo might have been suffering from a little bit of the old “look-ahead” when they lost to Florida International a week ago. Ball State is on top of the MAC right now with a 5-0 record, but they will play this game without one of their top players, Dante Love. Love suffered a spine injury a couple weeks ago and may never play football again. Quarterback Nate Davis is still around though, so don’t expect too much of a drop-off offensively. Home field advantage has been important in this series over the last decade or so (the home team is 11-3-1 since ’93), and I think Toledo will show up ready to play. I like Ball State, but this game has “upset” written all over it.
J.Pike’s Pick: Toledo 36, Ball State 31

Navy @ Air Force
You might be able to count the number of pass attempts in this game on one hand. Air Force (ironically) avoids the air at all cost while taking advantage of opponents’ mistakes better than anybody else in the country. Navy plays a similar style of football, but quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada Nahasapeemapetilon and running back Shun White have more big play ability than anybody on the Air Force offense. That will be the difference in the game, so go ahead and give Navy the Commander In Chief Trophy.
J.Pike’s Pick: Navy 27, Air Force 19