FINALISTS - Gale Sayers Award

In the highlight reel age, we figured we should have an award for the most elusive skill player. Ironically it is named for a player who made his living quite some time before the highlight reel age. The award goes to the most elusive skill player in America - a guy that defenders just can't seem to wrap up. Obviously, having a strong highlight package will play into the voting.
2008 Winner - Jahvid Best (RB, California)

Last year's winner was dropped from consideration when he added one of the most gruesome injuries I have ever seen to his highlight reel. Best is a great player, but now I can't think about him without remembering that awful concussion he suffered after leaping into the end zone against Oregon State.

I have whittled the list of finalists down to the final five. Here is the pertinent info for each of them, in alphabetical order.

2009 Finalists:

DEZMON BRISCOE (Jr. WR, Kansas)

A relative unknown on this list, Briscoe has been one of the best go-to receivers in the nation for the past couple seasons. He can make the big catch AND has the speed to take it the distance.
2009 Stats:
84 receptions for 1,337 yards (15.4 avg) and 9 touchdowns;
1 kickoff return touchdown;
1 rushing touchdown

Highlights:


MARDY GILYARD (Sr. WR, Cincinnati)

Gilyard has the knack for making his biggest plays when the team needs it most. See the 99-yard kickoff return for touchdown late in the first half when trailing by 21 against Pittsburgh on the last day of the regular season for evidence.
2009 Stats:
80 receptions for 1,150 yards (14.4 avg) and 11 touchdowns;
34 kickoff returns for 1,074 yards (31.6 avg) and 2 touchdowns;
16 punt returns for 202 yards (12.6 avg) and 1 touchdown

Highlights:


JEREMY KERLEY (Jr. WR, TCU)

Sure, Kerley might not get nearly as many touches as the other guys on this list, but that only means he has a higher percentage of highlights per touch. The chances of Kerley winning the Sayers isn't high, but his punt return for touchdown against Colorado State this year is enough by itself to make him a finalist.
2009 Stats:
38 receptions for 467 yards (12.3 avg) and 2 touchdowns;
34 punt returns for 487 yards (14.3 avg) and 2 touchdowns;
17 kickoff returns for 457 yards (26.9 avg);
50 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns

Highlight:


JACQUIZZ RODGERS (Soph. RB, Oregon State)

You should probably get used to seeing Rodgers' name on the list of Finalists for the Sayers Award. Only a sophomore, Rodgers is already putting together quite a string of impressive plays and drawing comparisons to the one and only Barry Sanders.
2009 Stats:
255 carries for 1,377 yards (5.4 avg) and 20 touchdowns;
74 receptions for 509 yards (6.9 avg) and 1 touchdown;
1 passing touchdown

Highlights:


C.J. SPILLER (Sr. RB, Clemson)

I'm not the biggest Spiller fan in the world, but there is no way you can ignore his sheer athleticism. He practically defines what this award is about. When Spiller gets his hands on the ball in the open field, there isn't a defender alive (other than maybe Fred Smoot) who thinks he has a good chance at taking him down.
2009 Stats:
201 carries for 1,145 yards (5.7 avg) and 11 touchdowns;
21 kickoff returns for 708 yards (33.7 avg) and 4 touchdowns;
33 receptions for 445 yards (13.5 avg) and 4 touchdowns;
8 punt returns for 210 yards (26.3 avg) and 1 touchdown;
1 passing touchdown

Highlight:

JP Top 25 - Week 10

With apologies to Nevada and San Jose State, who are set to play later tonight, here is my top 25 following an exciting week ten.

1. Texas (Record: 9-0, Last Week: 1)
The Longhorns continue to look like the best team in the nation, with the best balance of offense, defense, and special teams.

2. Alabama (9-0, LW: 2)
A gutty performance by the Crimson Tide showed this team has what it takes to fight through tough times and still come out victorious.

3. Florida (9-0, LW: 3)
Offensively, Florida is easily the worst team among the top teams in the nation. Allow me to be the first to predict the Gators will be BETTER on offense in 2010 when John Brantley takes over the QB spot. He's got a much better arm and will really help open things up. Whether he can win like Tebow or not will be the real discussion in the offseason.

4. TCU (9-0, LW: 4)
I'm making the road trip to Fort Worth to watch the game of the week in person next weekend. TCU hosts Utah, their last big test of the season.

5. Georgia Tech (9-1, LW: 6)
Paul Johnson's gutsy call to go for it on fourth down late in the fourth quarter while trailing Wake Forest shows the confidence he has in his offense right now.

6. Cincinnati (9-0, LW: 7)
The Bearcats had to hang on tight to beat UConn, which shined a spotlight on a defense that might not be as good as we previously thought. And I now firmly believe Brian Kelly can plug any quarterback on his roster into the lineup and score points. Kelly clearly prepares his quarterbacks better than just about anybody in America.

7. Boise State (9-0, LW: 8)
Boise had another mid-week close call, but I still believe the defense on this team ranks them as a legitimate top 10 team. The Broncos nearly jumped Cincinnati in my poll this week.

8. Pittsburgh (8-1, LW: 11)
The next time I hear Pitt mentioned in the national conversation will be the first. Right now, the gap in the Big East between Cincinnati and Pitt is razor thin. Bill Stull and Dion Lewis have the offense humming, and the defense - a Wannstedt specialty - is coming together nicely as well. Don't be surprised if the Panthers end up with the Big East's BCS bowl bid.

9. Oregon (7-2, LW: 9)
Looks like Oregon isn't what everybody thought they were. I kept having flashbacks to that opening night game where they looked like a bottom ten team (not a top ten team) against Boise State, which prevented me from raving about this team as much as everybody else did.

10. USC (7-2, LW: 12)
The Trojans looked absolutely average in defeating Arizona State on the road Saturday night. Maybe Oregon's big win wasn't as big as it first seemed.

11. Ohio State (8-2, LW: 14)
12. LSU (7-2, LW: 10)
13. Virginia Tech (6-3, LW: 15)
14. Miami (7-2, LW: 16)
15. Iowa (9-1, LW: 5)
16. Penn State (8-2, LW: 13)
17. Arizona (6-2, LW: 19)
18. Utah (8-1, LW: 20)
19. Oregon State (6-3, LW: 24)
20. Houston (8-1, LW: 22)
21. Oklahoma State (7-2, LW: 23)
22. South Florida (6-2, LW: 21)
23. Stanford (6-3, LW: NR)
24. Tennessee (5-4, LW: NR)
25. BYU (7-2, LW: NR)

Just missed the cut:
Wisconsin, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Clemson

Mountain West Preview

Projected Records & Standings

1. TCU                10-2  (7-1)
2. BYU                 9-3  (6-2)
3. UTAH                9-3  (6-2)
4. AIR FORCE           9-3  (5-3)
5. UNLV                5-7  (3-5)
6. COLORADO STATE      6-6  (3-5)
7. SAN DIEGO STATE     6-6  (3-5)
8. NEW MEXICO          4-8  (2-6)
9. WYOMING             3-9  (1-7)

Champion: TCU

I’m not sold on the offense and QB Andy Dalton, but TCU has never been about offense. The defense is what rules for Gary Patterson’s squad, and with players like DE Jerry Hughes, LB Daryl Washington, and CB Rafael Priest coming back the Frogs should be as formidable as ever. Keep an eye on potential game-changer Jeremy Kerley on offense and special teams. He could be an important cog in the offense if he takes another step up in his development.

Question the Hype: BYU

BYU quarterback Max Hall returns to guide one of the nation’s most highly touted offenses. Look a little bit closer, though, and you’ll find that the Cougars padded their offensive numbers against inferior opponents. Remember that this is the same team that needed a horrible call from the officials to beat winless Washington a year ago, and also got throttled in their biggest games against TCU (32-7), Utah (48-24), and Arizona (31-21).

Could Surprise: SAN DIEGO STATE

I considered putting Air Force in this spot, but decided that it wouldn’t really surprise anyone if Troy Calhoun guides the Falcons to 9 wins. I almost put New Mexico here, but I’m not sure if new coach Mike Locksley (along with his OC, former North Texas head coach Darrell Dickey) has enough experienced players outside QB Donovan Porterie to put together a breakthrough season yet.

Instead I went with San Diego State. The Aztecs have long been sitting on an untapped gold mine, and I believe Brady Hoke might be the coach to harness that potential. He brought in some excellent assistant coaches to help him out too. With Al Borges running the offense and former New Mexico head coach Rocky Long running the defense, the future could be bright in San Diego – and why not start the future in 2009?

Faulk Trophy Candidates:
OT-Zane Beadles, Utah
QB-Omar Clayton, UNLV
WR-Rashaun Greer, Colorado State
QB-Max Hall, BYU
DE-Jerry Hughes, TCU
QB-Tim Jefferson, Air Force
FS-Robert Johnson, Utah
DE-Jan Jorgensen, BYU
PR/WR-Jeremy Kerley, TCU
QB-Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
TE-Dennis Pitta, BYU
QB-Donovan Porterie, New Mexico
LB-Stevenson Sylvester, Utah
QB-Karsten Sween, Wyoming
WR-Ryan Wolfe, UNLV
RB-James Wright, New Mexico

Faulk Trophy Finalists

MARSHALL FAULK TROPHY

Most awards tend to go to players from the big time conferences. The players of the SEC and Big XII have plenty of awards to compete for, so we created an award that will go to the best player in the nation NOT in a BCS conference. The award is named for the great Marshall Faulk of San Diego State fame.

I narrowed down my list of finalists to five. All are deserving, but only one will be awarded the Marshall Faulk Trophy.

J.Pike's Finalists

JOE BURNETT
(Senior CB, Central Florida)
Key Stats
Defense: 44 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss;
4 interceptions (103 return yards), 11 passes broken up;
Special Teams: 1 blocked kick;
Kick Returns: 745 yards, 28.7 avg, 2 td;
Punt Returns: 378 yards, 14.5 avg
An explosive playmaker who is a threat to score any time he gets his hands on the ball

CHASE CLEMENT
(Senior QB, Rice)
Key Stats
Passing: 3,812 yards, 41 td, 7 int;
66.4 completion percentage;
317.7 yards per game;
Rushing: 621 yards, 11 td
51.8 yards per game;
369.5 all purpose yards per game, 52 total tds
A poor man's Colt McCoy

NATE DAVIS
(Junior QB, Ball State)
Key Stats
Passing: 3,446 yards, 26 td;
265.1 yards per game;
Rushing: 277 yards, 4 td;
286.4 yards total offense per game;
A gutty, talented quarterback who led the Cardinals to a 12-1 record


JERRY HUGHES
(Junior DE, TCU)
Key Stats
48 tackles;
14 sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss;
2 interceptions (1 returned for touchdown);
6 forced fumbles, 3 fumbles recovered;
Guided one of the best defenses in the nation;
Harassed quarterbacks all season


BRIAN JOHNSON
(Senior QB, Utah)
Key Stats
Passing: 2,636 yards, 24 td;
68.3 completion percentage;
219.7 yards per game;
Led Utah to a perfect 12-0 regular season thanks to his steady play;;
The favorite for the Faulk Award most of the season

WEEK THIRTEEN - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

#11 Boise State at Nevada

(Saturday, 3 pm)
This should be a great game out in the WAC. Nevada is on the rise thanks to the play of quarterback Collin Kaepernick, but Boise's unsung defense will be the difference.
J.Pike's Pick: Boise State 27, Nevada 23

#12 Oklahoma State is IDLE

#14 Missouri is IDLE

#15 Pittsburgh at #19 Cincinnati
(Saturday, 6:15 pm, ESPN 2)
Let's see, we've got a wildly inconsistent Pittsburgh team with a wildly inconsistent LeSean McCoy at running back going up against Tony Pike and and the surging Cincinnati Bearcats. The Big East title will probably go to the winner, so look for Tony Pike to make another Heisman statement with a huge game.
J.Pike's Pick: Cincinnati 24, Pittsburgh 20

Air Force at #16 TCU
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, Versus)
This is a full blown upset alert here. With all the talk about Gary Patterson leaving TCU to coach somewhere else, will the TCU players be fired up to play this game? I have my doubts. What I don't doubt is the Air Force Academy's ability to keep this game close and turn an Andy Dalton mistake into the game winning points down the stretch.
J.Pike's Pick: Air Force 19, TCU 16

#17 Oregon State at Arizona
(Saturday, 6 pm, Versus)
Oregon State is flying under the radar right now, but they actually control their own destiny in the Pac-10. Win out, and the Beavers will get the nod for a BCS game ahead of USC. Winning in the desert isn't as difficult as it once was, and I think the speed of the Rodgers' brothers will be too much for Arizona to match. Get ready to land back on that hot seat, Mikey.
J.Pike's Pike: Oregon State 31, Arizona 20

N.C. State at #18 North Carolina
(Saturday, 11 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
N.C. State quarterback Russell Wilson has a bright future leading the Wolfpack. But in 2008 the Tar Heels are still the better team.
J.Pike's Pick: North Carolina 24, N.C. State 14

Ole Miss at #21 LSU
(Saturday, 2:0 pm, CBS)
After last week's gut check against Troy, LSU might be ready to finally grow up as a team this season. Houston Nutt has had an immediate impact on Ole Miss, turning them into a pesky up-and-comer in the SEC. The quarterback play in this game will be anything but stellar, so it will probably come down to who can control the line of scrimmage. LSU has the advantage there.
J.Pike's Pick: LSU 27, Ole Miss 20

#22 Boston College at Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
I'm glad people are finally starting to see Riley Skinner for what he is: an average quarterback with a flimsy arm. The Demon Deacons are trailing off just as I expected this season because they lost too many key weapons. Conversely, Boston College is proving they still have life after Matt Ryan. Mark Herzlich is a big part of the Eagles' success. The linebacker is fantastic in coverage, and he's even a menace on special teams.
J.Pike's Pick: Boston College 21, Wake Forest 6

Florida State at #25 Maryland
(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)
Keep me away from the ACC. These games tend to go exactly the opposite of what I expect. Since I'm expecting Maryland to continue their dominance at home this season, and quarterback Chris Turner to continue playing his best against top opponents, I'll go with the Seminoles. As a side note, starting FSU safety Myron Rolle will miss most of this game because he is interviewing to become a Rhodes Scholar. Impressive.
J.Pike's Pick: Florida State 23, Maryland 17

WEEK THIRTEEN - Preview

Michigan (+20½) over Ohio State
Call it a hunch, or call it a reaction to the widely held opinion that Ohio State is going to blow Michigan out – I feel like Michigan will cover this spread. The Wolverines aren’t as bad as their record, and Ohio State doesn’t typically blow people out. Michigan will play one good half and one bad half as usual, but I think the good half will be enough to keep the final score within three touchdowns.

Air Force (+18½) over TCU
I have my concerns over whether TCU will “show up” for this game or not. Even if they do, I’m not sure they can beat Air Force by more than 18 points. The Falcons have a pesky habit of hanging around.

Middle Tennessee (-19½) over North Texas High
There are only two more chances to bet against North Texas this season!

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Buffalo (+3½) over Bowling Green
Vanderbilt (-3) over Tennessee
Washington (-7½) over Washington State
Rice (-8½) over Marshall
Tulsa (-28½) over Tulane
Michigan State (+14½) over Penn State
Oregon State (+3) over Arizona
Minnesota (+5½) over Iowa

WEEK ELEVEN - Thursday Night Games

#22 Maryland @ Virginia Tech

(Thursday, 6:30 pm, ESPN)
Maryland is the ultimate Dr. Jeckyl/Mr. Hyde team. They can get beat by Middle Tennessee one week and then bounce back to destroy teams like Cal and Clemson all in the span of a month. Tonight they travel to Blacksburg where Virginia Tech is traditionally one of the stronger Thursday night teams. Tyrod Taylor still isn't there yet as a quarterback, but he's dangerous enough to lead the Hokies to some points. Maryland on the other hand have speedy running back Da'Rel Scott to lean on. Will he be able to do enough against a young, improving Bud Foster defense? I'll give the edge to the Hokies due to their defense and the home crowd.
J.Pike's Pick: Virginia Tech 28, Maryland 24

---------------

#13 TCU @ #10 Utah
(Thursday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
The Mountain West takes center stage tonight (on CBS College Sports??) as the league's top two teams square off. The winner not only has a leg up on winning the conference title - a berth in a BCS bowl might also be at stake.

If you like good defenses, this is the game for you. TCU and Utah are the best defensive teams in a conference that knows a thing or two about defense. They are also both in the top 10 nationally in total yards allowed per game.

Utah is led up front by defensive end Paul Kruger. The sophomore is fourth on the team in tackles and has piled up 6.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss. It doesn't end there for the Utes. Linebacker Stevenson Sylvester and defensive end Koa Misi are active players who will each contend for All-League honors at the end of the season. And don't forget about the rangy Sean Smith. At 6-foot-3, Smith is one of the taller cornerbacks in the nation, and he has tremendous athleticism to go along with it.

TCU is led defensively by the talented Jerry Hughes. TCU has traditionally featured a pass rushing menace at defensive end and Hughes is no exception. In fact, with 14 sacks and 5 forced fumbles, Hughes might be one of the best quarterback harrassers the Frogs have ever had.

Like Utah, TCU swarms to the ball and gang tackles as well as anybody. Linebacker Jason Phillips is often leading that swarm. Phillips leads the Frogs with 60 tackles so expect to see him all over the field tonight.

With two great defenses, the difference in the game will come down to which offense is able to pick up first downs and keep drives alive. TCU is paced by steady quarterback Andy Dalton. He won't impress you with his skills, but he's the kind of player that just makes the team better somehow.

Usually TCU has a feature back that they can count on to pick up yards in a pinch, but they don't have that this year. Aaron Brown is close, but he doesn't even start most of the time and has been more impressive returning kicks. Jeremy Kerley could be the X-Factor as he was in the Frogs' big win over BYU earlier this year.

But I think Utah has the edge when it comes down to which offense can move the ball more consistently. The running back tandem of Matt Asiata and Darrell Mack are a combined 450 pounds (not to mention the 12 touchdowns between the two) and I think they can take the pounding the TCU defense is sure to bring and continue to pick up the few yards here and there to keep the chains moving. In fact, Mack ran for 100 yards last year on the Frogs.

Quarterback Brian Johnson is one of the most underrated player in the nation and he will ultimately be the difference tonight. He throws a beautiful ball and has the athleticism to avoid Hughes and the TCU pass rush more often than not.
J.Pike's Pick: Utah 23, TCU 19

Upeset Alert - Mountain West Edition

The Mountain West Conference has three teams ranked in the J&BP Top 25. This Saturday all three of those teams go on the road to face tough competition, so I’m putting the entire conference on Upset Alert. I predict at least one of the top three (Utah, TCU, BYU) will lose. Here’s a quick preview of the games in order of the likelihood of upset. By the way, if anybody knows what channel “The Mtn.” is, please let me know because for the first time ever I want to tune in to their network.

Utah (8-0) @ New Mexico (4-5)
(Saturday, 8:30 pm, The Mtn.)
Don’t ever count out Rocky Long’s troops. When quarterback Donovan Porterie went down for the season with an injury, the Lobos simply rallied around their potent running game. They are hanging around .500 thanks to the running of Rodney Ferguson. The senior tailback has paced the nation’s 13th ranked rushing attack with 865 yards and 11 touchdowns. Ferguson has his work cut out for him this week because the Utah front seven is one of the best in the Mountain West. Thanks to stars like Paul Kruger, Koa Misi, and Stevenson Sylvester, the Utes have limited opponents to 85.9 rushing yards per game this season (9th nationally). Can they hold up against Ferguson and company? One reason Utah is confident heading into this game is because of the play of their quarterback, Brian Johnson. Johnson has posted solid numbers and displayed impressive leadership skills in leading the Utes to their 8-0 mark. He has been the leading candidate for the Faulk Trophy for the entire season, and I expect him to play like he deserves the award Saturday. The Achilles heel for Utah all season has been their penchant for shooting themselves in the foot. Untimely penalties and turnovers have cropped up, but haven’t yet gotten the best of the Utes. New Mexico is a solid fundamental team that will be able to take advantage of these mistakes. That will get the momentum of the crowd going and give the Lobos an excellent shot at the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah 23

BYU (7-1) @ Colorado State (4-4)
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
Colorado State is looking for their first big win under new head coach Steve Fairchild and a home game against BYU would be the perfect opportunity to get it. If a winless Washington team can come within a blown extra point of taking BYU to overtime, why can’t the Rams do it too? Fairchild is striving for balance offensively with wide receiver Rashaun Greer and running back Gartrell Johnson, but the offensive line isn’t good enough yet for either phase to thrive. Facing an ever-improving BYU front seven that includes standouts David Nixon, Matt Bauman, and Jan Jorgensen doesn’t bode well for that unit. On the other side of the ball, BYU can score points, but they aren’t unstoppable. If you can pressure Max Hall you can knock him out of his rhythm. The problem is that Colorado State is last in the Mountain West with only 6 sacks this season. On emotion alone, the Rams will make this one a game in the second half, but in the end it will be difficult to make clutch stops against the potent BYU offense.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 34, Colorado State 24

TCU (8-1) @ UNLV (3-5)
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
When UNLV knocked off Arizona State earlier this season, it looked like the Rebels were finally going to turn the corner under coach Mike Sanford. Now that we are a little deeper into the season it looks like a win over ASU isn’t quite as impressive as it seemed at the time. But with quarterback Omar Clayton the Rebels will always have a chance to win. The problem is he will have to do it against one of the best defenses in the nation. TCU is in the top two nationally in each of the following categories: scoring defense (10.4 points per game), rushing defense (30.2 yards per game), total defense (218.9 yards per game), sacks (35), and turnover margin (+14). On top of all that, TCU has yet to allow a single point in the fourth quarter this season. So Omar Clayton had better watch his back because Jerry Hughes (12 sacks) and Jason Phillips will be coming after him on Saturday. For UNLV to pull the upset, they’ll need to play their best game and hope for one of those annual TCU choke jobs that tend to trip up the Horned Frogs just when they are gaining some national attention.
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 33, UNLV 16

WEEK NINE - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

#11 Texas Tech at #16 Kansas
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
Texas Tech hasn’t played anybody up to this point, and they have been sloppy since entering Big XII play. Kansas is just the kind of team that can knock off the Red Raiders. Not only is Todd Reesing and his excellent (now healthy) receiving corps capable of matching Tech point-for-point, they are also a smart team that will take advantage of all of Mike Leach’s coaching mistakes. The Kansas defense will hold the Red Raiders to their lowest point total and knock them from the ranks of the unbeaten.
J.Pike’s Pick: Kansas 36, Texas Tech 27

Wyoming at #13 TCU
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
The Horned Frog defense should have no problems holding Wyoming under 10 points – four other defenses have done it already this year and TCU might be the best defense the Cowboys have played. Jeremy Kerley is one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the Mountain west, but TCU won’t even need him to win this one. How did Joe Glenn’s coaching stock fall so far so fast?
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 35, Wyoming 3

Colorado at #15 Missouri
(Saturday, 5:30 pm, FSN)
Don’t make the mistake of assuming Missouri will bounce right back from their two-game losing streak and destroy Colorado. The Buffaloes are a smart team with some good young players and they are definitely capable of compounding Gary Pinkel’s troubles. But Colorado’s problem is that they often start games aggressively and grab early leads, but then go into safe mode. Missouri will take advantage of that habit and pull out of their nose dive with a win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Missouri 38, Colorado 24

Central Florida at #17 Tulsa
(Sunday, 7 pm, ESPN)
Tulsa boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, but they’ll be facing one of the best defenses in Conference USA here. UCF is still struggling offensively due to a quarterback controversy, but honestly, neither Michael Greco nor freshman Rob Calabrese could really make a difference against Tulsa. David Johnson-to-Brennan Marion will provide the fireworks as they lead the Golden Hurricane to 8-0.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 41, Central Florida 20

UNLV at #18 BYU
(Saturday, 1 pm, The Mtn.)
How will BYU respond coming off their first loss of the season? UNLV has faded of late, but Frank Summers is still capable of chewing up yards and clock with his running. That means BYU can’t be feeling too sorry for themselves or they could be looking at a second consecutive loss. I expect this one to be a dogfight throughout, but in the end Max Hall will find a way to get the win.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 28, UNLV 21

#19 Boston College at North Carolina
(Saturday, 11 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
BC quarterback Chris Crane is finally starting to play well. He’s not throwing nearly as many terrible interceptions as he did in the early part of the year, which is allowing him to utilize his strong arm more effectively. The running of freshman Montel Harris has also been a pleasant surprise as he balances out the offense by chipping in an average of 88 yards the last four games. North Carolina lost quarterback T.J. Yates to injury four weeks ago and has been hanging on for dear life ever since. The Tar Heels have a ton of talent, but it’s looking more and more like 2009 will be the year it all comes together. In the mean time, Mark Herzlich and the BC defense will be enough to slow down Carolina’s incocnsistent offense and get the Eagles to 6-1.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boston College 27, North Carolina 17

Virginia at #20 Georgia Tech
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ESPN U)
Virginia is on a roll. After sputtering to a 1-3 start, the Wahoos are now on a three game winning streak that included victories over Maryland, East Carolina, and North Carolina – all respectable foes. Marc Verica has finally settled in as the quarterback after a revolving door at the position in the early part of the year, but nothing has helped the team more than the healthy return of running back Cedric Peerman. Peerman has invigorated the offense by forcing defenses to worry about the run again instead of pinning their ears back and teeing off on Verica. But Virginia’s winning streak could be in jeopardy against Georgia Tech. Josh Nesbitt is back in the lineup so the triple option offense is once again firing on all cylinders. Paul Johnson’s troops will find a way – as they always seem to do – to douse the flames of a hot Virginia team and continue their climb up the rankings.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia 19

#21 South Florida at Louisville
(Saturday, 2:30 pm)
This matchup pits a USF team that appears to have peaked and is now just treading water against an up-and-coming Louisville team that doesn’t yet have the horses to consistently win games like this – yet. Be patient Louisville fans. If you give Steve Kragthorpe just one more year I guarantee you’ll see Louisville take a big step up in the Big East.
J.Pike’s Pick: South Florida 30, Louisville 24

Rutgers at #22 Pittsburgh
(Saturday, 2:30 pm)
After falling to Bowling Green out of the gate it looked like Pittsburgh was on their way to yet another disappointment-filled season. But since that loss Pitt has won five straight and grabbed an early lead in the Big East race thanks to their victory over South Florida. Now a disappointing Rutgers team comes to town with more talent than their 2-5 record indicates. This is exactly the kind of game Pitt would have blown a year ago, but Rutgers is in a more giving mood this year. The Scarlet Knights will give this game away just as they have been giving games away all year.
J.Pike’s Pick: Pittsburgh 23, Rutgers 18

#23 Virginia Tech at Florida State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
When was the last time Florida State was 5-1 and unranked? That fact demonstrates just how far the Seminoles have fallen from grace recently. Bobby Bowden is but a figurehead now who doesn’t even seem to pretend to coach anymore. On the other sideline, Frank Beamer has a young team and is struggling with his traditionally strong special teams. But the Hokies have enough on defense to rattle Christian Ponder into turnovers. Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor doesn’t get rattled because it’s a rare feet when a defender actually catches him. Hokies win in a defensive struggle.
J.Pike’s Pick: Virginia Tech 18, Florida State 16

#24 Minnesota at Purdue
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN Classic)
This game will go one of two directions: either Purdue will come together as a team and start playing up to their talent level, or they’ll completely fall apart and throw in the towel for the season. There has been a lot of talking in the press from Kory Sheets and even head coach Joe Tiller about the sub-par play of Curtis Painter so far. Both happen to be right – especially Sheets, who needs to get the ball more for the Purdue offense to be effective. Minnesota has been a pleasant surprise so far this season, but I still think it all depends on which Purdue shows up. If Purdue can Boiler Up, they’ll win. Despite all the bickering and in-fighting, I think that’s exactly what will happen.
J.Pike’s Pick: Purdue 30, Minnesota 27

#25 Michigan State at Michigan
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
Look out Spartans. I know you think this is the year you finally exert your dominance over the state of Michigan football, but think again. Even with the coaching change, Michigan still has the edge in this game. In big games like this, the Michigan State offense can be rather one dimensional. Yeah, Javon Ringer is an excellent one dimension to have, but I think the Michigan defense will more than be up to the challenge of limiting MSU’s scoring opportunities. On the other side of the ball, Michigan quarterback Steven Threet has improved his accuracy enough this year to give the spread offense some balance. Threet will hit enough timely passes to keep drives alive and give Michigan an upset win over their in-state rivals.
J.Pike’s Pick: Michigan 22, Michigan State 20

Midweek Games

Florida State @ N.C. State
(Thursday, 6:30 pm, ESPN)
N.C. State quarterback Russell Wilson is finally getting healthy again. When he’s 100% he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC. Top defender Nate Irving is also coming back from his injury? The Wolfpack and Tom O’Brien desperately need a win to stay afloat and what better place to do it than on your home field on a Thursday night ESPN game? The inconsistent Seminoles will once again talk more than they’ll actually play and get knocked off by an inferior opponent. Does Bobby Bowden do anything any more?
J.Pike’s Pick: N.C. State 24, Florida State 20

#8 BYU @ #21 TCU
(Thursday, 7 pm, VERSUS)
TCU has continually exceeded my expectations this season thanks to an always solid defense and a reliable running game. BYU enters the game as media darlings thanks to their 6-0 start and top 10 ranking. Max Hall is a good quarterback, but I’m not sure the Cougars are top 10 material. The Horned Frogs will give them all they can handle, and I’m putting BYU on Upset Alert.
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 28, BYU 27

Hawaii @ #17 Boise State
(Friday, 7 pm, ESPN)
It’s been a rocky season post-June Jones on the islands. Hawaii has struggled to a 3-3 start. Boise State on the other hand has proven that they don’t rebuild – they reload! … for a WAC team anyway. Freshman Kellen Moore has been great at quarterback this season forming a solid backfield duo with veteran running back Ian Johnson. The ‘Bows have never been a great road team (can you blame them?), so the Broncos should handle their business on the Smurf Turf and move to 6-0.
Mark this down as one of my locks for the week: Boise State (-5) over Hawaii.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 35, Hawaii 20

WEEK SEVEN - Locks

Syracuse (+23½) over West Virginia
Syracuse is bad, but West Virginia hasn’t shown the ability to beat anybody by more than three touchdowns this year. With Pat White suffering through nagging injuries, I don’t expect that pattern to change.

Utah (-23) over Wyoming
Utah is playing good football right now and Wyoming simply is not. The Cowboys aren’t even averaging double digits in points this season (by far the worst in the nation), so a shutout by the strong Utah defense is more than possible – it’s probable. Utah quarterback Brian Johnson can easily manufacture at least 30 against this group.

Colorado State (+15½) over TCU
This is the kind of game that seems to trip up TCU just about every year. The Horned Frogs are favored on the road against a team with a new coach that is improving every week. Not only do I think Colorado State covers this large spread, I think they have an excellent shot at winning outright.

Louisiana-Lafayette (-21) over North Texas High
If I actually put money on these bets, I would have gotten rich betting against North Texas High School this season. Louisiana-Lafayette has the nation’s top rushing offense and Tyrell Fenroy nearly topped the 300-yard mark a week ago against Louisiana-Monroe! Look for the Ragin’ Cajuns to to approach 500 yards rushing and completely control the clock in this game.

Tulsa (-25) over SMU
This seems to be the week where I capitalize on the big spreads. Tulsa is tops in the nation averaging 56.4 points per game. June Jones is struggling to get his passing attack going as the Mustangs sit on a 1-5 record averaging only 22 points per game. Tulsa wins big.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Texas (+7) over Oklahoma
Illinois (-12½) over Minnesota
Arizona State (+28) over USC
Buffalo (-1) over Western Michigan
Miami (-16½) over Central Florida
Arizona (-6½) over Stanford
Iowa State (+4½) over Baylor
San Jose State (-14) over Utah State
Missouri (-14) over Oklahoma State
UTEP (-4) over Tulane

WEEK SEVEN - Preview

Now it’s time for our weekly look at the games that are flying under the national radar. TCU is on upset alert this weekend as they travel to Colorado Springs to face a new coach and a team that appears to be improving every week. And two matchups in the MAC should have a direct impact on the conference title game in that conference.

TCU @ Colorado State
New head coach Steve Fairchild is doing a good job so far at Colorado State. The Rams are 3-2 and have been steadily improving every week. Wide receiver Rashaun Greer (6th nationally with 570 receiving yards) has been a key component in an offense averaging a respectable 260.8 passing yards per game, and he’ll give TCU’s stout defense something to think about. TCU’s running game is strong this year, averaging 246.7 yards per game, but the passing game isn’t going to scare anybody. There’s also the look-ahead factor for the Frogs as they have nationally ranked BYU on the schedule next week. If Colorado State can load up the box and take away the TCU ground game, they’ll be able to put enough points on the board to give Fairchild his first big win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Colorado State 28, TCU 24

Western Michigan @ Buffalo
Western Michigan is 4-1 and looking like a serious contender in the MAC. Quarterback Tim Hiller leads an offense that is clicking right now, averaging 32.2 points per game. But Hiller doesn’t always play well on the road. Buffalo head coach Turner Gill will make it difficult on Hiller to sit back in the pocket and without being pressured, and that will knock him off his game. Meanwhile, Drew Willy and the offense will produce the knockout punch and climb back into the thick of the MAC race.
J.Pike’s Pick: Buffalo 31, Western Michigan 27

Temple @ Central Michigan
Ever since quarterback Dan LeFevour stepped on campus, the Chippewas have been the big shots in the MAC. LeFevour put up incredible numbers a year ago (compare them to Tim Tebow if you like), and he’s one of the better non-BCS quarterbacks around. Temple though brings a very good, very experienced defense to the table. The Owls are limiting opponents to only 18.5 points per game (3rd in the MAC) and will challenge LeFevour and the offense from start to finish. Unfortunately Temple doesn’t have enough offense to pull the upset though.
J.Pike’s Pick: Central Michigan 21, Temple 14

WEEK FIVE - Top 25 Preview (Part II: Top 10)

#1 USC at Oregon State
(Thursday, 8 pm, ESPN)
Everybody remembers what happened the last time the Trojans visited Corvalis. The Beavers pulled off the upset, ending USC’s 27-game Pac-10 winning streak. In this matchup, the Rogers brothers bring a lot more speed to the table than Ohio State did two weeks ago, so there could be trouble brewing. Throw in one of the most underrated playmakers in the nation in Sammie Stroughter and you have what could be a recipe for another upset. But Mark Sanchez is no John David Booty, and the young Oregon State defense has struggled in the early going. Oregon State’s speed on offense will make the USC defense will look human for the first time all season – if only for a few series. But overall USC is too good and too prepared to get upset again.
J.Pike’s Pick: USC 34, Oregon State 24

#11 Alabama at #2 Georgia
(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)
Spotlight Game of the Week [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, Alabama 20

#24 TCU at #3 Oklahoma
(Saturday, 6 pm, FSN)
Here’s another game that featured a landmark upset a couple years ago. When TCU knocked off Oklahoma in the 2005 season opener, it marked the start of the Rhett Bomar era. That was not a pleasant season in Norman. Luckily Bomar the Ballhog is gone, and in his place is the remarkably efficient Sam Bradford. TCU is good defensively, but I don’t think they can contain Oklahoma for four quarters anymore. Oklahoma gets their revenge.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma 33, TCU 13

Arkansas at #4 Texas
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
This game was postponed due to Hurricane Ike a couple weeks ago. The only thing that happened between then and now is that Arkansas played like a JV team against Alabama and got beat 49-14. Arkansas is flat out bad defensively. The offense is semi-capable, but Casey Dick is prone to throwing bad interceptions, so he’ll give Texas’ young secondary a much needed boost of confidence. Colt McCoy is quietly playing as well as anybody right now, and he’ll guide the offense to another big day.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 38, Arkansas 21

Ole Miss at #5 Florida
(Saturday, 11:30 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
Ole Miss has a history of beating Florida, so don’t be surprised if this game is still in doubt in the fourth quarter. Florida’s offense hasn’t yet hit its stride, but the defense is more than picking up the slack. Ole Miss has been completely rejuvenated thanks to the arrival of Houston Nutt. Quarterback Jevan Snead will play well, but in the fourth quarter the Florida defense will rise up and force him into the mistake that ruins the upset bid.
J.Pike’s Pick: Florida 32, Ole Miss 20

#6 Missouri is Idle

Mississippi State at #7 LSU
(Saturday, 6:30 pm, ESPN 2)
Mississippi State has one of the worst offenses in college football and LSU is coming off a big win at Auburn. The LSU defense could probably win this game by themselves. Put Derek Pegues on offense!
J.Pike’s Pick: LSU 37, Mississippi State 3

#19 Illinois at #8 Penn State
(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
Evan Royster, Darryl Clark and the Penn State offense has been fantastic in guiding the Nittany Lions to a 4-0 start. The Illinois defense on the other hand has struggled with tackling in the early going. That doesn’t bode well for the Illini. Throw in the fact that Penn State’s defense, which has been playing as well as anybody this year, could possibly be bolstered by the return of their best defensive lineman, Maurice Evans, from suspension. Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn are good, but I don’t think they have enough help around them.
Watch Evan Royster – he’s good.
J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 34, Illinois 20

#9 Wisconsin at Michigan
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN)
Michigan is going to need their defense to step up if they are going to win any games this season. The offense just isn’t there yet and they will turn the ball over. Wisconsin on the other hand has their running game in high gear already. Hosses P.J. Hill and John Clay have been pounding people to the tune of 518 yards and 7 touchdowns in only three games so far this season. Look for that duo to wear down a feisty Michigan team and win it in the fourth quarter.
J.Pike’s Pick: Wisconsin 20, Michigan 14

Minnesota at #10 Ohio State
(Saturday, 11 am, Big Ten Network)
Don’t let Brent fool you – Minnesota isn’t very good. Sure, they have a 4-0 record, but that’s only because they beat the same cupcakes they managed to lose to a year ago. Ohio State on the other hand has found new life with Terrelle Pryor as the full time quarterback. He brings a new dimension to the offense that Todd Boeckman lacked. Chris “Beanie” Wells is also expected to be back in the lineup after missing the last two games with a toe injury. Look for the Buckeyes to put together their most complete game of the season as they beat up and out-coach the inferior Golden Gophers.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ohio State 37, Minnesota 13

Week Three Preview

Iowa State (+13) over Iowa
This rivalry has produced some very close games recently. Both schools are 2-0 this season, and Iowa has won their two contests by a combined score of 88-3. Don’t let that fool you though – Iowa’s big wins came against Maine and Florida International. Iowa State is a team on the rise with Gene Chizik at the helm, and he has an impressive quarterback in Austin Arnaud. The Cyclones will keep this game close and have a good shot at winning the game outright.

Baylor (+2½) over Washington State
Baylor is bad, but Washington State might be worse. Coming off a 66-3 loss at the hands of Cal, the Cougars must travel to Waco to face an offense that seems be gaining their footing in Art Briles’ new offense. Baylor will pick up the first meaningful win of the Briles era in this one.

Central Michigan (-3½) over Ohio
Don’t be fooled by Ohio’s gutsy performance against Ohio State last weekend. They still don’t stand much of a chance against MAC powerhouse Central Michigan. QB Dan LeFevour will show the Buckeyes how to move the ball against Frank Solich’s Bobcats.

UCLA (+9) over BYU
I’m not sure how BYU is favored by 9 points in this game. UCLA plays great defense and will get after Max Hall all day long. That will keep the game close enough for UCLA’s offense, hobbled by injuries, to sneak out with the win.

Southern Miss (+1½) over Arkansas State
Arkansas State has produced two “whoa” moments already this year. In week one they beat Texas A&M in College Station, and last week they scored 83 points in a win over Texas Southern. But Southern Miss still has the overall talent edge with running back Damion Fletcher and tight end Shawn Nelson. USM wins this one outright.

Stanford (+12) over TCU
This was a tight contest last year, and that was only Jim Harbaugh’s first season. Stanford is playing even more consistent football this season and they’ve already got two conference games under their belt. That early season experience gives the Cardinal a slight edge over TCU so if they don’t win outright, they’ll definitely keep it within 12.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to qualify them as “Locks":
Illinois (-24½) over Louisiana-Lafayette
Oregon (-7½) over Purdue
Penn State (-26½) over Syracuse
Michigan (Pick’em) over Notre Dame
Georgia Tech (+7) over Virginia Tech
Western Michigan (-8) over Idaho
Mississippi State (+10½) over Auburn
Kentucky (-16½) over Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma (-20) over Washington
Utah (-24½) over Utah State

Week Three Preview

UPSET WATCH

#1 Georgia @ South Carolina
Why it could happen: Because it happened last year. South Carolina’s defense was able to keep Georgia out of the end zone, and they are loaded on that side of the ball this year.
Why it won’t happen: Georgia is a much better team now than the one that lost to USC a year ago. Even though there are mostly the same faces, this team grew up after that loss, and Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford are now two of the best in the country.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, South Carolina 13

Iowa State @ Iowa
Why it could happen: It’s a rivalry game and anything can happen. On top of that, Iowa State is a team on the rise. Gene Chizik has the offense headed in the right direction and freshman quarterback Austin Arnaud is more than capable of leading an upset victory.
Why it won’t happen: The Iowa defense isn’t as good as their stats so far this year, but they’re good enough. The Hawkeyes seem to be playing better as a team this year, and their offensive line finally seems up to Kirk Ferentz standards. That will give Iowa the ability to control the ball and the clock, which will ultimately be the key to victory.
J.Pike’s Pick: Iowa 27, Iowa State 24

UPSET WARNING

#9 Auburn @ Mississippi State
Why it will happen: Mississippi State will keep the turnovers to a minimum and play outstanding defense. The new Auburn offense will learn a lesson about abandoning physical football. Good luck with that sideways running game against the speedy Bulldogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Mississippi State 15, Auburn 12

Stanford @ TCU
Why it will happen: TCU is always sketchy when they are supposed to be good. Stanford on the other hand has been playing over their heads ever since Jim Harbaugh took the job. Running back Toby Gerhart will prove you can run the ball against the usually stout TCU defense and Stanford will out-heart the Horned Frogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Stanford, 27, TCU 24

WEEK ONE - Under the Radar

TCU

at
New Mexico

(Saturday, 5pm, VS)

TCU has owned Rocky Long’s Lobos since joining the Mountain West. Last season the Frogs played their best game of the season and won by a whopping margin of 37-0.

New Mexico’s hopes of reversing the recent trend ride squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Donovan Porterie and running back Rodney Ferguson. There is no doubt this is one of the best backfield duos in the conference.

Porterie is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. However he played one of the worst games of his career against TCU in 2007. Porterie was hurried all game long by the aggressive Horned Frog defense and the UNM offense managed to pick up only six first downs.

In order to keep the pressure off Porterie, Ferguson will have to step up his game. Expect to see backup Paul Baker in this game if Ferguson’s bruising running style is once again shut down by the aggressive TCU defense. Baker’s speed could be a nice change of pace for the offense.

Solid defensive play has been a staple of the Gary Patterson era. Defensive tackle James Vess is back after sitting out last season due to a suspension. He joins Cody Moore and Kelly Griffin to form the best trio of tackles in the MWC. These three will once again be tasked with shutting down Ferguson.

The TCU offense is nothing to write home about though. Sophomore Andy Dalton has proven to be nothing more than a serviceable quarterback so far in his career. Against the veteran Lobo secondary, which features All-MWC corner DeAndre Wright, expect Dalton to struggle in the passing game.

New Mexico has the home field advantage in this game, as well as the superior offensive skill talent, but TCU has a fine defense that can take the crowd out of the game. Plus Gary Patterson has had Rocky Long’s number, winning the last three matchups by a combined score of 113-49. Porterie will play much better than he did in this game last season, but in the end the TCU defense is just too good.

J.Pikes Pick: TCU 18, New Mexico 13

Thanks to the Helmet Project for the team helmet logos