JP Top 25 - Week 10

With apologies to Nevada and San Jose State, who are set to play later tonight, here is my top 25 following an exciting week ten.

1. Texas (Record: 9-0, Last Week: 1)
The Longhorns continue to look like the best team in the nation, with the best balance of offense, defense, and special teams.

2. Alabama (9-0, LW: 2)
A gutty performance by the Crimson Tide showed this team has what it takes to fight through tough times and still come out victorious.

3. Florida (9-0, LW: 3)
Offensively, Florida is easily the worst team among the top teams in the nation. Allow me to be the first to predict the Gators will be BETTER on offense in 2010 when John Brantley takes over the QB spot. He's got a much better arm and will really help open things up. Whether he can win like Tebow or not will be the real discussion in the offseason.

4. TCU (9-0, LW: 4)
I'm making the road trip to Fort Worth to watch the game of the week in person next weekend. TCU hosts Utah, their last big test of the season.

5. Georgia Tech (9-1, LW: 6)
Paul Johnson's gutsy call to go for it on fourth down late in the fourth quarter while trailing Wake Forest shows the confidence he has in his offense right now.

6. Cincinnati (9-0, LW: 7)
The Bearcats had to hang on tight to beat UConn, which shined a spotlight on a defense that might not be as good as we previously thought. And I now firmly believe Brian Kelly can plug any quarterback on his roster into the lineup and score points. Kelly clearly prepares his quarterbacks better than just about anybody in America.

7. Boise State (9-0, LW: 8)
Boise had another mid-week close call, but I still believe the defense on this team ranks them as a legitimate top 10 team. The Broncos nearly jumped Cincinnati in my poll this week.

8. Pittsburgh (8-1, LW: 11)
The next time I hear Pitt mentioned in the national conversation will be the first. Right now, the gap in the Big East between Cincinnati and Pitt is razor thin. Bill Stull and Dion Lewis have the offense humming, and the defense - a Wannstedt specialty - is coming together nicely as well. Don't be surprised if the Panthers end up with the Big East's BCS bowl bid.

9. Oregon (7-2, LW: 9)
Looks like Oregon isn't what everybody thought they were. I kept having flashbacks to that opening night game where they looked like a bottom ten team (not a top ten team) against Boise State, which prevented me from raving about this team as much as everybody else did.

10. USC (7-2, LW: 12)
The Trojans looked absolutely average in defeating Arizona State on the road Saturday night. Maybe Oregon's big win wasn't as big as it first seemed.

11. Ohio State (8-2, LW: 14)
12. LSU (7-2, LW: 10)
13. Virginia Tech (6-3, LW: 15)
14. Miami (7-2, LW: 16)
15. Iowa (9-1, LW: 5)
16. Penn State (8-2, LW: 13)
17. Arizona (6-2, LW: 19)
18. Utah (8-1, LW: 20)
19. Oregon State (6-3, LW: 24)
20. Houston (8-1, LW: 22)
21. Oklahoma State (7-2, LW: 23)
22. South Florida (6-2, LW: 21)
23. Stanford (6-3, LW: NR)
24. Tennessee (5-4, LW: NR)
25. BYU (7-2, LW: NR)

Just missed the cut:
Wisconsin, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Clemson

Thursday Night Previews

Football season is here! It all gets under way tonight with a couple of intriguing rematches.

South Carolina at N.C. State
(6 pm, ESPN)
South Carolina blanked N.C. State 34-0 on opening week a year ago. But both teams went in the exact opposite directions the rest of the season. Now the Wolfpack are the favorites, thanks to the leadership of sophomore quarterback Russell Wilson. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier says that Stephen Garcia is the man at quarterback, but he hasn't proven enough up to this point.
J.Pike's Pick: N.C. State 26, South Carolina 18

Oregon at Boise State
(10:15 pm, ESPN)
Boise State took a big step toward respectability when the young Broncos went into Autzen Stadium and emerged victorious early in 2008. Now the Ducks must visit Boise and I'm not sure they have what it takes to win on the blue turf. This is the game of the year for Chris Peterson's bunch - the game many feel could stand between Boise State and an undefeated season - so you know they'll be ready. The experience heavily favors Boise too, with Oregon only returning nine starters and featuring a first year head coach. Look for the Broncos to make a statement with their defense early on and ride the momentum to a win.
J.Pike's Pick: Boise State 30, Oregon 24

WEEK FOURTEEN - Top 25 Preview (Part I)

#6 Penn State (11-1) is IDLE
NEXT: BCS Bowl game (completed regular season)

#8 Utah (12-0) is IDLE
NEXT: BCS Bowl game (completed regular season)


#17 Georgia Tech (8-3) at #9 Georgia (9-2)
(Saturday, 11 am, CBS)
The Peach State rivalry wasn't expected to be this up in the air. Georgia was the preseason #1 team in the land and Georgia Tech was supposed to suffer the growing pains that go along with breaking in a new head coach. Now it looks like Georgia Tech is the team on the rise and Georgia is the program treading water. Georgia has a couple elements that give them the edge here though. One is obviously running back Knowshon Moreno. Moreno is the antidote to Georgia Tech's excellent defensive line, and I think he'll eventually get the better of that matchup. The second is the speed and experience the Bulldogs possess on the defensive side of the ball. Whereas Miami struggled to stay disciplined against Paul Johnson's triple option attack, Rennie Curran and company will be in the right place at the right time to slow down Josh Nesbitt and Jonathan Dwyer.
J.Pike's Pick: Georgia 28, Georgia Tech 24

#10 Ohio State (10-2) is IDLE
NEXT: Bowl game (completed regular season)

#12 TCU (10-2) is IDLE
NEXT: Bowl game (completed regular season)

Kansas (6-5) vs #13 Missouri (9-2)
@Kansas City, MO
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
There isn't nearly as much pizzazz in this matchup as there was a year ago when a tickets to both the Big XII and National Title games were on the line for both teams. To put it quite simply, Kansas isn't as good as they were a year ago. Without players like Aqib Talib and Brandon McAnderson, the Jayhaks are without any legitimate weapons. Missouri has proven themselves to be overrated as well, but with Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin there is still enough firepower on hand to score points in a hurry.
J.Pike's Pick: Missouri 38, Kansas 27

Fresno State (7-4) at #14 Boise State (11-0)
(Friday, 5 pm, ESPN 2)
Boise's perfect season is on the line against Fresno State. The defense fell apart down the stretch against Nevada last week - nearly blowing second half leads of 31-10 and 41-24. Now that a BCS Bowl berth looks unlikely for the Broncos (Utah will likely take their spot), how much do they have to play for? Fortunately for Boise, Fresno State quarterback Tom Brandstater has been playing poorly all season and doesn't appear to be capable of leading an upset charge.
J.Pike's Pick: Boise State 30, Fresno State 27

#23 Oregon (8-3) at #15 Oregon State (8-3)
(Saturday, 6 pm, Versus)
If you can believe it, the Pac-10 title is on the line north of the California border Saturday night. The Oregon State Beavers hold the tie breaker advantage over USC thanks to their head-to-head win early in the season. So if Mike Riley's troops can win this game, the Beavers - not the Trojans - will be getting the automatic BCS bid. Mighty Mite freshman Jacquizz Rodgers is questionable for the game, but I don't care. Oregon State is fired up and still has plenty of speed to spare in James Rodgers and Sammie Stroughter.
J.Pike's Pick: Oregon State 35, Oregon 28

Syracuse (3-8) at #16 Cincinnati (9-2)
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN360.com)
Tony Pike and the Bearcats can clinch the Big East title and a BCS bowl berth with a win over Syracuse Saturday. Pike has Heisman eyes watching, so expect him to take full advantage of an outmanned Syracuse team and put up another 300-yards passing.
J.Pike's Pick: Cincinnati 27, Syracuse 13

Maryland (7-4) at #18 Boston College (8-3)
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
Welcome to the ACC where chaos reins supreme. Boston College enters this contest ranked and favored - which means you can count on Maryland for the win. Quarterback Chris Crane is out for the season with a broken collarbone, which means Dominique Davis will get the starting nod. Davis led the game winning drive against Wake Forest a week ago and brings a lot more athleticism to the position. But he doesn't have the same grasp of the offense that Crane developed over the course of the season, so the playbook will be limited. Maryland quarterback Chris Turner generally plays his best against ranked opponents, so look for the Terps to make up for their poor showing against Florida State last weekend with a win on the road over the Eagles.
J. Pike's Pick: Maryland 20, Boston College 14

#19 California (7-4) is IDLE
NEXT: vs. Washington (0-11)

#21 Michigan State (9-3) is IDLE
NEXT: Bowl game (completed regular season)

#22 West Virginia (7-3) at Pittsburgh (7-3)
(Friday, 11 am, ABC)
West Virginia's national title dreams were squashed by a Pitt in an upset last year. This year there won't be nearly as many national viewers because neither team is really all that good. Mountaineer speed, in the form of Pat White and Noel Devine, will get their revenge though.
J.Pike's Pick: West Virginia 27, Pittsburgh 24

Mississippi State (4-7) at #24 Ole Miss (7-4)
(Friday, 11:30 am, Raycom)
The Egg Bowl is an underrated rivalry. It's not always the best football, but for some reason I still watch it. Houston Nutt has Ole Miss on the rise in the SEC, and they have a lot more offensive firepower than Mississippi State will be able to muster.
J.Pike's Pick: Ole Miss 24, Mississippi State 13

#25 Ball State (12-0) is IDLE
NEXT: MAC Championship Game vs. Buffalo (7-4)

WEEK THIRTEEN - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

#11 Boise State at Nevada

(Saturday, 3 pm)
This should be a great game out in the WAC. Nevada is on the rise thanks to the play of quarterback Collin Kaepernick, but Boise's unsung defense will be the difference.
J.Pike's Pick: Boise State 27, Nevada 23

#12 Oklahoma State is IDLE

#14 Missouri is IDLE

#15 Pittsburgh at #19 Cincinnati
(Saturday, 6:15 pm, ESPN 2)
Let's see, we've got a wildly inconsistent Pittsburgh team with a wildly inconsistent LeSean McCoy at running back going up against Tony Pike and and the surging Cincinnati Bearcats. The Big East title will probably go to the winner, so look for Tony Pike to make another Heisman statement with a huge game.
J.Pike's Pick: Cincinnati 24, Pittsburgh 20

Air Force at #16 TCU
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, Versus)
This is a full blown upset alert here. With all the talk about Gary Patterson leaving TCU to coach somewhere else, will the TCU players be fired up to play this game? I have my doubts. What I don't doubt is the Air Force Academy's ability to keep this game close and turn an Andy Dalton mistake into the game winning points down the stretch.
J.Pike's Pick: Air Force 19, TCU 16

#17 Oregon State at Arizona
(Saturday, 6 pm, Versus)
Oregon State is flying under the radar right now, but they actually control their own destiny in the Pac-10. Win out, and the Beavers will get the nod for a BCS game ahead of USC. Winning in the desert isn't as difficult as it once was, and I think the speed of the Rodgers' brothers will be too much for Arizona to match. Get ready to land back on that hot seat, Mikey.
J.Pike's Pike: Oregon State 31, Arizona 20

N.C. State at #18 North Carolina
(Saturday, 11 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
N.C. State quarterback Russell Wilson has a bright future leading the Wolfpack. But in 2008 the Tar Heels are still the better team.
J.Pike's Pick: North Carolina 24, N.C. State 14

Ole Miss at #21 LSU
(Saturday, 2:0 pm, CBS)
After last week's gut check against Troy, LSU might be ready to finally grow up as a team this season. Houston Nutt has had an immediate impact on Ole Miss, turning them into a pesky up-and-comer in the SEC. The quarterback play in this game will be anything but stellar, so it will probably come down to who can control the line of scrimmage. LSU has the advantage there.
J.Pike's Pick: LSU 27, Ole Miss 20

#22 Boston College at Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
I'm glad people are finally starting to see Riley Skinner for what he is: an average quarterback with a flimsy arm. The Demon Deacons are trailing off just as I expected this season because they lost too many key weapons. Conversely, Boston College is proving they still have life after Matt Ryan. Mark Herzlich is a big part of the Eagles' success. The linebacker is fantastic in coverage, and he's even a menace on special teams.
J.Pike's Pick: Boston College 21, Wake Forest 6

Florida State at #25 Maryland
(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)
Keep me away from the ACC. These games tend to go exactly the opposite of what I expect. Since I'm expecting Maryland to continue their dominance at home this season, and quarterback Chris Turner to continue playing his best against top opponents, I'll go with the Seminoles. As a side note, starting FSU safety Myron Rolle will miss most of this game because he is interviewing to become a Rhodes Scholar. Impressive.
J.Pike's Pick: Florida State 23, Maryland 17

WEEK TWELVE - Top 25 Preview (Part II: Top 10)

#1 Texas Tech is IDLE

Mississippi State @ #2 Alabama
(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)
This game comes down to whether or not Alabama shows up. The fact that the Crimson Tide have lost two in a row to the Croomdawgs means Nick Saban didn’t have to work too hard to get his team’s attention. It will probably still be a hard fought, low scoring game, but I don’t expect Bama to have too much trouble dismissing Mississippi State.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 22, Mississippi State 10

#3 Texas @ Kansas
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
Simply put, this isn’t the same Kansas team that won a BCS bowl game last year. The Jayhawks definitely miss defensive coordinator Bill Young, who took over the DC job at Miami in the offseason. Kansas is giving up a Big XII worst 276.3 passing yards per game, which means Texas quarterback Colt McCoy should be in for yet another big day. The Longhorns will put this one away early and erase all the recent memories of photo finishes in Lawrence.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 42, Kansas 24

South Carolina @ #4 Florida
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
I’ll be honest with you, I have no idea what to expect from this Florida team on a week to week basis. Urban Meyer’s squad has as much athleticism as any team in the nation, but they seem to rely on their speed more than on Xs and Os. That leaves the door open for any opponent they face to sneak out of town with a win (see Ole Miss earlier this season). South Carolina brings a solid defense to The Swamp, highlighted by speedy defensive end Eric Norwood and tackling machine Emanuel Cook (if Cook ever misses a tackle, let me know). But the Gamecock offense is anything but consistent. Steve Spurrier keeps going back and forth between freshman Stephen Garcia and error prone (but eligible) Chris Smelley, and that leads to drastic ebbs in the cohesiveness of the offense. I would say Garcia should be the guy, but I have a feeling Smelley might come up big in this game. South Carolina will keep it close, but I’ll give Florida the nod.
J.Pike’s Pick: Florida 24, South Carolina 18

Indiana @ #5 Penn State
(Saturday, 11 am, Big Ten Network)
After getting knocked out of the national title picture with a loss to Iowa last week, you might think the Nittany Lions would pack it in for the season. But the senior leadership on this team won’t let that happen. Quarterback Darryl Clark has been inconsistent of late, but facing the Big Ten’s worst pass defense should allow him and his three senior receivers to get back on track.
J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 37, Indiana 13

#6 Utah @ San Diego State
(Saturday, 7 pm, The Mtn.)
The clutch comeback win at home over TCU last Thursday night was huge. Now the Utes get to stretch their legs a little bit and get some backups some valuable game experience because San Diego State doesn’t have a chance to compete in this one. Utah was held to 13 points against the stingy Frog defense, but Brian Johnson and company should have no problem putting points on an Aztec defense that has given up at least 35 points in each of the last six games.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 44, San Diego State 7

#7 Oklahoma is IDLE

#8 USC @ Stanford
(Saturday, 6 pm, Versus)
I’ve been calling for it for weeks, so here it is: Stanford will upset USC. Again. I know nobody has forgotten about last season when Jim Harbaugh’s troops marched into the Coleseum and emerged victorious, despite being 42 point underdogs. How did they do it? They played scrappy defense, collecting four sacks and forcing five turnovers. Well, fast forward a year and Stanford is now leading the Pac-10 in sacks. They’ll get to Mark Sanchez and force him to make decisions on the run, which means USC will struggle to score. That opens the door for the surprisingly physical Stanford offense to ride Toby Gerhart and the Pac-10’s second ranked rushing attack to victory. USC has been playing outstanding defense of late, but they haven’t really faced a real challenge during that stretch. Oregon State proved that if you aren’t scared of USC, and you come out and punch them in the mouth, the Trojans will back down. Because there’s no use risking an NFL career for a meaningless college game …
J.Pike’s Pick: Stanford 20, USC 18

#9 Georgia @ Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
My, how the mighty have fallen. Before the season started I circled this game as one of the top five games to watch this year. Auburn was a preseason top 10 team and Georgia started the year at the very top of the polls. Now Georgia is struggling to maintain legitimacy at 8-2 while Auburn wallows in the pit of the SEC at 5-5. This game could be ugly. Auburn is only averaging 13.3 points per game in SEC play, but they can play a little defense when their hearts are in it. Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno’s heart is always in it, and I expect him to carry the Bulldogs this afternoon.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, Auburn 12

#10 Boise State @ Idaho
(Saturday, 4 pm)
It’s a Potato State showdown! Is Boise State ever going to play anybody again? Idaho is one of the worst teams in Division 1A, and there will probably be more Boise fans at the game than Vandals. Boise makes French fries out of Idaho and rolls to 10-0.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 38, Idaho 6

WEEK ELEVEN - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

Utah State @ #11 Boise State

(Saturday, 2 pm)
Utah State is one of the worst teams in Division 1-A and Boise is fighting for a slot in the BCS. This is a no brainer.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 39, Utah State 7

#12 Ohio State @ Northwestern
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN 2)
Northwestern can’t seem to catch a break, even when they catch a break. Coming off a big win at Minnesota a week ago that featured a game winning interception return for touchdown in the final minute, the Wildcats learned they will have to take on Ohio State without the services of tailback Omar Conteh. Conteh was filling in for Tyrell Sutton, who is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Backup quarterback Mike Kafka filled in nicely for C.J. Bacher (also injured), but I doubt he’ll run for over 200 yards against the Ohio State defense like he did against Minnesota. That doesn’t leave a lot of scoring options for Northwestern.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ohio State 24, Northwestern 13

Kansas State @ #14 Missouri
(Saturday, 6 pm, FSN)
Now that the Wildcats know Ron Prince won’t be their head coach next season, will they step up or fade away? If they decide to step up and play for their lame duck coach they have the offensive weapons to make this a game. If they don’t, Missouri, who is struggling with regaining national respect after back to back losses to Oklahoma State and Texas earlier this year, will blow them off the field. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to Jeremy Maclin and Chase Daniel.
J.Pike’s Pick: Missouri 52, Kansas State 27

Purdue @ #15 Michigan State
(Saturday, 11 am, Big Ten Network)
What do you know? If you take Curtis Painter out of the lineup and give the ball to Kory Sheets 30 times Purdue wins. After struggling to score all season, Joe Tiller made the move to Justin Siller at quarterback (because Painter was “injured”) and gave Sheets his carries and the Boilermakers scored 48 points on Michigan. They won’t produce the same against a superior defense, but if Tiller goes with the same formula I give Purdue a realistic shot at knocking off 15th ranked Spartans - especially if they can slow down Javon Ringer the way Wisconsin did a week ago (54 yards on 21 carries).
J.Pike’s Pick: Michigan State 24, Purdue 17

#18 Georgia Tech @ #16 North Carolina
(Saturday, 11 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
Neither of these teams were considered top 25 teams in the preseason. Now it’s November and Butch Davis and Paul Johnson each appear to have their teams in the ACC Coastal Division race to stay. That means this could develop into an interesting rivalry over the next few years. This year’s matchup will come down to which offense is able to move the ball the most consistently. Georgia Tech has the best defensive line in the conference. 6-foot-7 Michael Johnson is a beast off the edge and Vance Walker is a major disruptor in the middle. North Carolina isn’t bad up front either because sophomore tackle Marvin Austin is one of the best young players in the ACC. So which offense is better suited to keep the chains moving? At first glance it would appear to be Georgia Tech. Johnson’s triple option offense has been grinding up ACC foes all year and the Yellow Jackets are healthy for the most part. North Carolina on the other hand is without their top playmaker Brandon Tate, who is out for the rest of the season due to a knee injury. Quarterback T.J. Yates has also missed the last several games with an ankle injury, but Cam Sexton has filled in admirably. Look for the UNC defense to stay disciplined and keep the Ramblin’ Wreck from breaking a long run in this game, as wide receiver Hakeem Nicks steps up on offense to provide a big play or two in the passing game.
J.Pike’s Pick: North Carolina 23, Georgia Tech 20

Louisville @ #19 Pittsburgh
(Saturday, 11 am, Big East Network)
Here we go again – another weak Big East matchup to pick. For those of you out there complaining about Utah potentially getting a BCS bowl bid, you need to refocus your argument. The Mountain West Conference actually deserves to get a team into the BCS this year. The Big East on the other hand does not. Who in the Big East is capable of beating any of the top three teams (Utah, TCU, BYU) in the Mountain West? West Virginia? Pitt? South Florida? Cincinnati? UConn? Louisville? I’d say none of the above. So quit complaining about Utah making a BCS game and start complaining about the Big East getting an automatic berth.
J.Pike’s Pick: Pittsburgh 33, Louisville 27

Michigan @ #23 Minnesota
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
Has Michigan given up on this season? From the looks of last week’s defensive meltdown against Purdue one might think so. Minnesota is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Northwestern on their home field, but the Gophers are still a surprising 7-2. Tim Brewster must be doing something right, so I think they rebound and pick up a win over the floundering Wolverines.
J.Pike’s Pick: Minnesota 24, Michigan 21

#24 Cincinnati @ West Virginia
(Saturday, 6 pm, ESPN U)
Tony Pike is back and playing with a broken arm. He’s got playmaking wideout Marshawn Gilyard at his disposal, but unfortunately the junior superstar doesn’t play defense. Cincinnati will struggle to keep up with Nimble Noel Devine. Pat White and new offensive coordinator Jeff Mullen have slowly been adapting to one another, but finally seem to be on the same page. Pat White being on top of his game is bad news for Cincinnati.
J.Pike’s Pick: West Virginia 30, Cincinnati 28

San Diego State @ #25 BYU
(Saturday, 1 pm, the mtn.)
Here’s some fun stats: BYU is 8-1, SDSU is 1-8.
BYU scoring offense: 35.7 points per game;
SDSU scoring defense: 35.7 points per game;
BYU quarterback Max Hall averages 305.9 passing yards per game;
SDSU allows 292.8 rushing yards per game;
I’ll save you the trouble – it all adds up to a big BYU win.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 35.7, San Diego State 10

WEEK TEN - J&BP Top 25 Preview

#1 Texas @ #8 Texas Tech

(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
Since Texas Tech’s last win in this series in 2002, Texas has won by an average score of 48 to 30. These games haven’t been as close as you might think from all the “it’s always tough up there in Lubbock” talk. It’s just Drunk Vince Gill’s clownish offense clouding your memory. Texas is on a roll and the talk of a Texas Tech upset this weekend is just the fuel they need to take the field with a chip on their shoulder in Lubbock. On the field the Longhorns will get it done by actually playing a little defense. Much like the game plan Will Muschamp put together to stifle Missouri’s potent offense, he’ll turn his imposing D-Line loose, send blitzers after Graham Harrell, and hit the quarterback repeatedly until Tech is forced to narrow those wide offensive line splits they are known for. Don’t think for a second Tech’s line will be able to handle Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller – nobody has contained those two all season. The Red Raiders have run the ball a little bit more this year, and that is the X-Factor here. But I haven’t seen enough from Leach’s track record to indicate he’ll actually stick with the run in a big game. Look for Texas to win easily in a relatively low scoring game. Well, low scoring compared to what some are expecting anyway.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 42, Texas Tech 28

Arkansas State @ #2 Alabama
(Saturday, 2 pm, ESPN360.com)
Bama had better be careful here. And no, I’m not joking. Arkansas State has a respectable 4-3 record that includes a win over Texas A&M. Quarterback Corey Leonard and running backs Reggie Arnold and Derek Lawson form an unsung trio in the backfield – all three could make a name for themselves with big games against Alabama. Let’s also not forget this is the same Crimson Tide team that lost a game to Louisiana-Monroe late last season. Nick Saban has an extremely physical football team, but he also has an offense that is limited, especially if you can manage to slow down Glen Coffee and the running game. Arkansas State will show up ready to play, and they WILL give Alabama a game. How long will the Red Wolves hang in there? We’ll find out Saturday.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 20, Arkansas State 17

#3 Penn State is IDLE

#7 Florida vs #4 Georgia (@ Jacksonville, FL)
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
There’s no shortage of motivation in this rivalry. By now I’m sure everyone has re-lived the moment last year when the entire Georgia team ran on the field to celebrate after scoring their first touchdown. I know Urban Meyer and the Florida Gators remember it, so this might be one of those games where the team that can manage their emotions the best and make fewer stupid mistakes in the heat of battle will win. Georgia has committed their fair share of stupid penalties this year, and that could be what does them in if they lose. Florida is known for their speed and explosive offense, and a lot of prognosticators are expecting the Gators to run Georgia off the field in a blowout. But did you know Georgia is actually averaging 20 more yards per game offensively than Florida this year? Keep in mind that is against a much more challenging schedule too. Meyer’s offense seems to be based more around speed than actual Xs & Os. Georgia’s defense can match Florida’s speed, so will Meyer be able to counter the attacking Bulldog defense with a play more creative than “Hey Tim Tebow, fake like you are going to run then throw a jump pass to the tight end”? We’ll see. Georgia also has not-so-secret weapon Knowshon Moreno in the backfield. The sophomore tailback is easily one of the best players in the nation and he runs with a determination that you have to see to fully appreciate him. He’ll be the key to getting Georgia off to a fast start, and he’ll poke and prod the Florida defenders until they start committing stupid penalties. Georgia gets back in the national title discussion with an impressive win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 32, Florida 20

Nebraska @ #5 Oklahoma
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN)
With Bo Pelini in the fold this rivalry will eventually pick up steam again. The problem is, with the Big XII scheduling the way it is, it will never be the event it once was. Nebraska will play Oklahoma this year and next year during the rebuilding process, but the two won’t be scheduled to play in the regular season in 2010 or 2011. So Pelini will have to squeeze some magic out of this series with an inferior roster for the next two years. Don’t think he can’t do it either. Oklahoma is talented, and I’m sure Sam Bradford is licking his chops to go up against one of the more error-prone secondaries in the nation, but the Sooners are prone to mental breakdowns defensively too. They are also gaining a reputation for not showing up in big games late in the season. Bradford might have his way with the secondary early, but I expect Nebraska to adjust and scratch and claw their way into making this a game in the second half.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma 34, Nebraska 21

Washington @ #6 USC
(Saturday, 5:30 pm, FSN)
Here’s another opportunity for USC to put up an impressive score against a bad team. All the national pundits will see the big score and gush about how great the Trojans are and how they are “the most dangerous team in the nation right now.” Go ahead and keep inflating their egos – I can’t wait to see them lose to Stanford again.
J.Pike’s Pick: USC 43, Washington 10

#9 Utah @ New Mexico
(Saturday, 8:30 pm, The Mtn.)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah 23

Iowa State @ #10 Oklahoma State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
How will the Cowboys respond to the loss to Texas? Some might say the strong showing against the #1 team in the country gave them confidence, that it confirmed their belief they belong in the top ten. But don’t forget the possibility that the Cowboys put their season on the line in that game and got their hearts ripped out with a close loss. Sometimes that’s the recipe for a huge letdown the following week. Judging by the way Oklahoma State handled their big win over Missouri (no big celebration, they simply walked off the field like a team that just did what they were supposed to do), I think Mike Gundy has his team on an even keel - they won’t get too ‘down’ because they never got too ‘up’. So I expect Kendall Hunter and Brandon Pettigrew to get back to rolling up points against the struggling Cyclones.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma State 40, Iowa State 17

#11 Boise State @ New Mexico State
(Saturday, 6 pm, ESPN360.com)
Almost four years ago New Mexico State fired their successful head coach Tony Samuel so they could bring in that clown Hal Mumme. Well, a mere 11 wins later that move is looking even more ridiculous than it looked at the time. The Aggies are coming off a loss to lifeless Idaho for goodness sake! I can only imagine how easily Boise State will roll over Mumme and his towel in Las Cruces this weekend.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 34, New Mexico State 13

#12 Ohio State is IDLE

#13 TCU @ UNLV
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 33, UNLV 16

#14 Tulsa @ Arkansas
(Saturday, 1 pm, ESPN360.com)
This won’t be a pretty football game. Gus Malzahn’s Tulsa offense is averaging 605.6 yards and 55.6 points per game this year. Malzahn happens to be the former offensive coordinator at Arkansas and he played a role in the firestorm that eventually led to the ousting of Houston Nutt. He’ll be looking to show the fans in Fayetteville what his offense can do. But Arkansas still has SEC athletes and with home field advantage and running back Michael Smith they are capable of pulling the upset. I’m not sure the Hog defense, which appears to be frightened by the prospect of tackling at times, is up to the challenge of slowing down the Golden Hurricane attack.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 38, Arkansas 34

#15 Missouri @ Baylor
(Saturday, 2 pm)
I like the job Art Briles has done at Baylor so far. He has the Bears playing with more fire than I have seen out of that program in quite a while. A big reason for that has been the play of their hugely talented quarterback Robert Griffin. With Griffin at the helm, I guarantee you Baylor makes a bowl game in the near future. But this year is year one on the learning curve. Missouri and Chase Daniel are way ahead of that, and they won’t hesitate to run it up on the upstart Bears. Jeremy Maclin flat out has too much speed to not reach the end zone at least three times on Saturday.
J.Pike’s Pick: Missouri 51, Baylor 21

Wisconsin @ #16 Michigan State
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
The season is quickly getting away from Wisconsin. Not only are the Badgers struggling to get decent play out of the quarterback spot, they just lost their best offensive weapon, tight end Travis Beckum, for the season thanks to a knee injury. And now they have to travel to face one of the best running backs in the nation. Michigan State’s Javon Ringer is the definition of a workhorse: he averages over 33 carries per game and has piled up 1,373 yards and 16 touchdowns so far this season. Even if Wisconsin manages to slow him down, I’m not sure they’ll be able to put many points on the board.
J.Pike’s Pick: Michigan State 23, Wisconsin 17

#17 Florida State @ Georgia Tech
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN)
Florida State has rallied around freshman quarterback Christian Ponder and quietly climbed to a 6-1 record. I’m not sure about Ponder though. He’s the kind of quarterback that makes stupid plays for the majority of the game and then stumbles his way into a big play in a key situation. I’m not sure how much of it is skill and how much of it is luck, but my impression from watching him is that these clutch plays aren’t going to be there for him against better competition. Georgia Tech has a pretty good defense and they are led up front by end Michael Johnson and tackle Vance Walker. Those two will make it difficult for Ponder to get in a rhythm. Offensively, Georgia Tech will lull a talented Seminole defense to sleep with their triple option, and eventually bust a long run late to set up the game winning score.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia Tech 18, Florida State 16

Tulane @ #18 LSU
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN360.com)
It’s time for the annual battle for Louisiana. It’s also time for LSU to take out some frustrations after giving up 50 points for the second time this season a week ago.
J.Pike’s Pick: LSU 34, Tulane 7

Northwestern @ #19 Minnesota
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN 2)
A season that started out so promising for Northwestern is now falling apart. The Wildcats lost two of their last three games, and must now face top 25 teams Minnesota and Ohio State. Injuries have been the main factor in the sudden dropoff, with quarterback C.J. Bacher and running back Tyrell Sutton each suffering season ending injuries in October. If you tune in to this game, check out Minnesota’s speedy freshman wideout Brandon Green. He broke out with 5 catches for 100 yards a week ago, and showed some excellent speed on a 71-yard reception. He could be a big time player in the Big Ten in the near future.
J.Pike’s Pick: Minnesota 23, Northwestern 16

#20 BYU @ Colorado State
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 34, Colorado State 24

#21 North Carolina is IDLE

#22 Ball State is IDLE

#23 Oregon @ California
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
Jeff Tedford is his own worst enemy. After a strong start to the season with Kevin Riley at quarterback, Tedford decided to give Nate Life-long Spare the job. Once again, Longshore proved he has no mettle and can’t hold up under pressure. His awful play was instrumental in the Bears getting destroyed by Arizona. Tedford went back to Riley at QB and the team responded with an easy win over UCLA. With Riley in the fold, Cal has an excellent shot to beat Oregon, whose pass defense is surprisingly shoddy. This game also features the three best running backs in the Pac-10. Sorry USC – five stars next to your name in high school doesn’t make you a good college running back. Oregon’s LeGarrette Blount has been pounding opponents this season with his physical running style (12 tds), and Jeremiah Johnson has one of the best stiff arms you’ll find. But Cal’s Jahvid Best will be the difference maker. His speed and agility is off the charts, and he’s finally healthy again.
J.Pike’s Pick: California 30, Oregon 28

#24 Maryland is IDLE

Kansas State @ #25 Kansas
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
Here’s a game with shootout potential. Both teams feature potent passing attacks: Kansas quarterback Todd Reesing has Dezmon Briscoe (760 yards, 9 td) and Kerry Meier (63 receptions, 4 td) at his disposal, and Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman likes to find speedy JC transfer Brandon Banks (813 yards, 20.8 yards per reception). Additionally, both defenses were burned repeatedly through the air a week ago: Kansas State gave up 58 points to Oklahoma and Kansas gave up 63 to Texas Tech. Mark Mangino gets the best of Ron Prince in the coaching matchup though.
J.Pike’s Pick: Kansas 38, Kansas State 32

WEEK NINE - Midweek Games

Auburn @ West Virginia
(Thursday, 6:30 pm, ESPN)
Before the season started this was one of the more intriguing games on the schedule. It looked like it would be a top 10 matchup with national title implications, but now that it’s here all this game has to offer is a couple of the most underachieving teams in the land trying to stay afloat. Auburn has suffered a particularly interesting meltdown that included Tommy Tuberville firing his offensive coordinator a couple weeks ago. West Virginia started 1-2, but quietly fought back to respectability by winning three in a row. If Auburn’s defense shows up the way it was playing earlier this season, the Tigers will have a big advantage over West Virginia’s predictable offense and a hobbled Pat White. But if Auburn gives the same effort they gave in a loss to Arkansas you can consider their season over. I’ll give Team Tuberville the benefit of the doubt one last time.
J.Pike’s Pick: Auburn 25, West Virginia 16

New Mexico @ Air Force
(Thursday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
New Mexico has seemingly been rejuvenated since the loss of their quarterback Donovan Porterie for the season. In fact, the 70-7 thumping they laid on San Diego State last week sent a message to the rest of the Mountain West not to count the Lobos out. But the Falcons consistently make opponents pay for mistakes, and that will be the difference in this game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Air Force 27, New Mexico 24

#14 Boise State @ San Jose State
(Friday, 8 pm, ESPN 2)
If Boise State is going to lose a game this season, this might be the one. San Jose State quarterback Kyle Reed is dynamic enough to take on a Boise State defense that has only allowed more than 7 points in a game once this season. Reed’s combination of accuracy in the passing game and elusiveness in the pocket will provide the biggest test to Boise’s solid secondary so far this year. They’ll have to cover longer than they’re used to and you never know when Reed will tuck it and run. Reed’s counterpart, Kellen Moore has sparked the Broncos this season whenever they needed it. He passed the first big road test of his career with flying colors when he led Boise State to a big win over Oregon in Autzen earlier this year, so I doubt the 20,000 packing Spartan Stadium will affect him much at all. Moore will lead his team to a hard fought victory as Boise State continues their hunt for another BCS Bowl.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 23, San Jose State 17

National Championship Race - The Undefeated

Now that we have whittled the number of unbeatens down to single digits, it’s time for Pikes Picks to take a look at the national title race. In this installment I will take a look at the nine remaining undefeated teams, break down each of their remaining schedules, and give you my pick on which teams will finish undefeated and which teams will play in the BCS National Title Game.

BALL STATE (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, @Miami(OH), @Central Michigan, Western Michigan, MAC Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 40%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 10%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Ball State is led by their outstanding quarterback Nate Davis. Unfortunately, their other Faulk Trophy candidate, wide receiver Dante Love, suffered a spine injury earlier this season that will likely end his football career. The Cardinals have played well since losing Love, but will they be able to go to Mount Pleasant, Michigan in late November and knock off MAC stalwart Central Michigan? I’m not sure they can.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, no BCS bowl

TULSA (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: UCF, @Arkansas, @Houston, Tulane, @Marshall, Conference USA Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 60%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 25%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Todd Graham and Gus Malzahn have the Golden Hurricane offense tearing through opposing defenses like, well, a Golden Hurricane. They are averaging 56.6 points per game and put up 77 on UTEP last Saturday! Senior quarterback David Johnson is in his first year starting, but has already displayed big play ability thanks to his great touch on the deep throws. The defense hasn’t really needed to do much this year, so there are still question marks on that side of the ball that need to be answered on back to back road trips to Arkansas and Houston if Tulsa is to remain undefeated.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-1, Conference USA champs, no BCS bowl

BOISE STATE (6-0)
Remaining Schedule: @San Jose State, @New Mexico State, Utah State, @Idaho, @Nevada, Fresno State
Chance of going undefeated: 80%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 70%
Chance of playing for the national title: 2%
Boise State is surprisingly led by a freshman quarterback and a stout defense. Defense is definitely not the first thing that comes to mind when discussing the Broncos, but this unit is pretty good. Only one team has managed to top 7 points against Boise so far and that was Oregon - who only had 13 points entering the fourth quarter. The Boise State secondary is playing extremely well so far, picking off 11 passes and limiting opponents to below 50% completions. But the gutsy play of freshman quarterback Kellen Moore is the reason the Broncos will most likely run the table.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-0, WAC champs, BCS Bowl

TEXAS TECH (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, @Oklahoma, Baylor, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 0%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 5%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Texas Tech made it to 7-0 by playing a schedule that consisted of two Division 1-AA opponents and exactly zero teams ranked anywhere near the top 25. The past two weeks the Red Raiders have struggled against the mediocre teams in the Big XII, so there is a good chance they could lose each of the next four games against the better teams in the conference. At least head coach Mike Leach will still have his offensive stats to fall back on when he’s 8-4 again.
J.Pike’s Pick: 9-3, no BCS bowl

UTAH (8-0)
Remaining Schedule: @New Mexico, TCU, @San Diego State, BYU
Chance of going undefeated: 55%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 55%
Chance of playing for the national title: 5%
Don’t discount the Mountain West Conference because Utah is for real. The Utes have stormed out to an 8-0 start thanks to an aggressive defense and Faulk Trophy favorite QB Brian Johnson. The meat of the schedule remains with nationally ranked TCU and BYU. Both games are at home, but both teams will present legitimate challenges in completely different ways. If Utah makes it through the rest of the season undefeated, they should easily grab their second ever BCS Bowl berth.
J.Pike’s Pick: 11-1, Utes will be more deserving of a BCS bowl bid than Boise State, but won’t get one

OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Texas, Iowa State, @Texas Tech, @Colorado, Oklahoma, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 10%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 15%
Chance of playing for the national title: 5%
We’ll find out just how for real the Cowboys are this weekend when they travel to Austin to face #1 ranked Texas. Mike Gundy and the Pokes have been one of the biggest surprises of 2008 not because of their prolific, balanced offense, but because of their surprising improvement on defense. Again, we’ll find out how much better they are on defense this weekend. Since Gundy took over the play calling again (former OC Larry Fedora took the head coaching job at Southern Miss in the offseason), the offense has gotten more physical thanks to the running of Kendall Hunter. With Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma left on the schedule though, chances are slim they make it through unscathed.
J.Pike’s Pick: 9-3, no BCS bowl

ALABAMA (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Tennessee, Arkansas State, @LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, SEC Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 50%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 90%
Chance of playing for the national title: 45%
If there’s one word you could use to describe Alabama, it’s “physical”. The Crimson Tide are looking to beat up every last team on their schedule and anybody who doubts them. That approach will win them a lot of games, but the lack of consistency on offense will make it difficult to run through the SEC undefeated.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-1, BCS bowl

PENN STATE (8-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Ohio State, @Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State
Chance of going undefeated: 80%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 95%
Chance of playing for the national title: 75%
If you haven’t had the chance to watch this Penn State team yet, make sure and tune in Saturday night when the Nittany Lions invade the Horseshoe. Joe Paterno’s squad is probably the most well-rounded team in the nation. Quarterback Darrell Clark steadies a speedy offense that can run between the tackles with the immensely underrated Evan Royster, or pick you apart in the passing game with three senior wide receivers. Aaron Maybin (10 sacks) and the defensive line is flat out dominating right now, which has allowed the ballhawking secondary to roam free and intercept 11 passes. Don’t discount the senior leadership on this team. Playing in the Big Ten means they have the best shot at going undefeated, and therefore playing in the BCS Championship Game.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-0, National Title game

TEXAS (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: Oklahoma State, @Texas Tech, Baylor, @Kansas, Texas A&M, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 70%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 98%
Chance of playing for the national title: 70%
If defense wins championships, the Longhorns are definitely in the discussion. Will Muschamp has his troops playing as aggressively as anybody, and when you have linemen that are as physically dominant as Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller it makes everybody look good. But the reason this team is dangerous is their hunger to win. When Colt McCoy takes the Sports Illustrated with his image on the cover and throws it in the trash before the Missouri game, you know this is a special team. Difficult games against Oklahoma State and Kansas loom large, but this Texas teams seems to be up to any task.
J.Pike’s Pick: 13-0, Big XII Champs, National Title game

WEEK EIGHT - Preview

Boise State (-5) over Hawaii
Boise State will win by at least two touchdowns. [LINK]

Wisconsin (+3½) over Iowa
Whoa, let’s all take a step back. Sure, Wisconsin is a disappointing 3-3 right now, but since when is losing games to Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State such a damning indictment? No matter how bad it looks for Wisconsin right now, the Badgers are still a better team than the Hawkeyes. Hitting the road to get away from the grumbling home fans will actually work to Wisky’s advantage as they maul Iowa in the trenches, pick up a win, and get their season back on track. Note to Iowa, your pink locker rooms aren’t as insulting when you don’t have Brad Banks out there slicing up defenses anymore.

Louisiana-Monroe (-18½) over North Texas High
Here we go again. My favorite D-1A high school team is getting 18½ points and I still think you should pick against them. The Mean Green showed signs of life last week, but still managed to lose by 29 and drop to 0-6 on the season. This week will be no different as North Texas High takes another step on the road to a winless season!

San Jose State (-2½) over New Mexico State
This is a weird one to call as a lock, but I have a lot of faith in San Jose State quarterback Kyle Reed. He’s a late addition to the Faulk Trophy watch list, but he’s very deserving of the honor. He’ll slice and dice the Aggie secondary and run circles around pursuing defensive linemen. San Jose State is slightly underrated and I think they’ll handle Hal Mumme’s troops with ease.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
South Florida (-24) over Syracuse
Connecticut (-1) over Rutgers
Miami, Ohio (+9½) over Bowling Green
Ole Miss (+13½) over Alabama
Michigan (+23½) over Penn State
Colorado (-3) over Kansas State
Washington (+14) over Oregon State
Illinois (-16½) over Indiana
Air Force (-4½) over UNLV

Midweek Games

Florida State @ N.C. State
(Thursday, 6:30 pm, ESPN)
N.C. State quarterback Russell Wilson is finally getting healthy again. When he’s 100% he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC. Top defender Nate Irving is also coming back from his injury? The Wolfpack and Tom O’Brien desperately need a win to stay afloat and what better place to do it than on your home field on a Thursday night ESPN game? The inconsistent Seminoles will once again talk more than they’ll actually play and get knocked off by an inferior opponent. Does Bobby Bowden do anything any more?
J.Pike’s Pick: N.C. State 24, Florida State 20

#8 BYU @ #21 TCU
(Thursday, 7 pm, VERSUS)
TCU has continually exceeded my expectations this season thanks to an always solid defense and a reliable running game. BYU enters the game as media darlings thanks to their 6-0 start and top 10 ranking. Max Hall is a good quarterback, but I’m not sure the Cougars are top 10 material. The Horned Frogs will give them all they can handle, and I’m putting BYU on Upset Alert.
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 28, BYU 27

Hawaii @ #17 Boise State
(Friday, 7 pm, ESPN)
It’s been a rocky season post-June Jones on the islands. Hawaii has struggled to a 3-3 start. Boise State on the other hand has proven that they don’t rebuild – they reload! … for a WAC team anyway. Freshman Kellen Moore has been great at quarterback this season forming a solid backfield duo with veteran running back Ian Johnson. The ‘Bows have never been a great road team (can you blame them?), so the Broncos should handle their business on the Smurf Turf and move to 6-0.
Mark this down as one of my locks for the week: Boise State (-5) over Hawaii.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 35, Hawaii 20

Wed/Thur/Fri Games

Louisiana Tech @ Boise State
(Wednesday, 7 pm, ESPN)
Boise State and their cheap shot artist safeties [LINK] are knocking on the door of the top 25. Derek Dooley’s Bulldogs have been playing well this year thanks to Georgia Tech transfer Taylor Bennett, but I’m not sure they have enough to win on the blue turf. After a tough battle, Boise will put them away with a late touchdown.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 34, Louisiana Tech 20

Pittsburgh @ #12 South Florida
(Thursday, 6:30 pm, ESPN)
Pitt head coach Dave Wannstedt needs a win here. After losing to Bowling Green in the season opener, the Panthers have built up some momentum thanks to a reliable running game. But now they must go up against George Selvie and the strong USF defense. Pitt will keep it close, but they don’t appear to be ready to take that next step in the Big East yet.
J.Pike’s Pick: South Florida 27, Pittsburgh 20

Oregon State @ #13 Utah
(Thursday, 8 pm, VERSUS)
Coming off the big upset win over #1 USC a week ago, the Beavers must now leave Corvallis to face yet another top 15 team. Utah is 5-0 and looks like a potential BCS buster thanks to the play of quarterback Brian Johnson. Johnson has been the Faulk Trophy favorite all season long so you know he’ll show up Thursday night. Oregon State was able to beat USC by playing physical football and running the ball right down their throats. But Utah’s defense is a physical unit that, unlike the Trojans, won’t back down when somebody punches them in the mouth. Paul Kruger, Stevenson Sylvester, and Company are good enough to slow down Quizz Rodgers and the running game which means quarterback Lyle Moevao will have to to make plays in the passing game. Wide receiver Sammie Stroughter is fantastic, but overall I don’t think Moevao is good enough to balance out the offense, especially against Utah’s secondary. Robert Johnson headlines a big, athletic unit that will make it difficult for the inconsistent Moevao to find open receivers. The biggest concern for the Utes is their penchant for committing penalties. If they don’t get that problem under control they could easily give this game away.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 31, Oregon State 27

#10 BYU @ Utah State
(Friday, 7 pm)
BYU has been rolling this year - hence their #10 ranking. Utah State is one of the worst teams in Division 1-A. There is no reason for this game not to be over by halftime.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 48, Utah State 14

Cincinnati @ Marshall
(Friday, 7 pm, ESPN)
Marshall has actually been playing good football so far this season. They are 3-2, have a win over Southern Miss under their belt, and gave Wisconsin everything they could handle in a loss. Now they host a Cincinnati team with serious injury issues at quarterback. Dustin Grutza and Tony Pike are both out for this game, so it will be up to one of the redshirt freshmen to lead the Bearcats (where’s Demetrius Jones? Was he sacrificed in one of the many Ben Mauk medical hardship appeals?). Luckily whoever the QB is will have tremendous receivers Dominick Goodman and Marshawn Gilyard at his disposal. Marshall’s Darius Passmore will make sure he isn’t overshadowed by that group though. Make no mistake about it – this is going to be a dog fight. The experienced Herd defense will do everything in their power to get after Cincy’s young quarterback, and maybe with a little Friday night home crowd magic they’ll be able to pull off the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: Marshall 26, Cincinnati 25

Week Four Preview

UPSET WATCH

Central Florida @ Boston College
Why it could happen: The Boston College offense isn’t very good. Central Florida played a whale of a game against rival South Florida and proved that they could play a little defense.
Why it won’t happen: Central Florida’s offense isn’t very good either. Michael Greco is a better quarterback than Chris Crane, but BC’s defense is good enough to shut down the Golden Knight offense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boston College 17, Central Florida 13

Boise State @ #14 Oregon
Why it could happen: Oregon is down to their third quarterback this season. Projected starter Nate Costa blew out his knee in fall camp, and actual starter Justin Roper injured his knee last week against Purdue. Boise State on the other hand still has RB Ian Johnson to carry the load.
Why it won’t happen: The Oregon secondary will force Boise State’s freshman quarterback Kellen Moore into a couple key turnovers, and Oregon’s two-headed rushing attack, which will get a lot of work thanks to the quarterback issues, will wear down the smallish Boise defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oregon 28, Boise State 17

Troy @ #8 Ohio State
Why it could happen: If Ohio State doesn’t recover mentally from their beat-down against USC, Troy has just the team to pull the upset. The Trojans play a fast paced spread offense that has enough speed to give the Buckeyes trouble.
Why it won’t happen: Even if the Buckeyes are pouting, they still have too much talent to lose this game. Jim Tressel is a smart coach that gets his team to beat the teams they should beat no matter what. It will be way closer than any Ohio State fan wants, but they just need a win to get back on the right track.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ohio State 26, Troy 22

UPSET WARNING

#18 East Carolina @ N.C. State
Why it will happen: Tom O’Brien knows a thing or two about football in the trenches and he’ll neutralize ECU’s apparent advantage in that area. The line play will allow quarterback Russell Wilson enough time and space to guide a steady offense, control the clock, and pull off the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: N.C. State 24, East Carolina 20

Week Three Preview

Here are a few games that deserve your attention despite the fact they aren’t getting the hype of, say, Ohio State v USC this week. Each contest features non-BCS conference teams that will be in contention for bowl games and conference titles.

Central Michigan @ Ohio
Fresh off their near up set of Ohio State, the Bobcats of Ohio get to face MAC favorite Central Michigan. Central is coming off a big loss to #1 ranked Georgia, so they’ll be hungry to face someone on their own level again. Dan LeFevour will be too much for the Ohio defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Central Michigan 34, Ohio 20

Air Force @ Houston
This might be the toughest game of the week to pick. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has done extremely well so far in Colorado Springs, and he looks to have a pretty good defense in tow this season. New Houston head coach Kevin Sumlin has been up and down in his first two games at the helm, and so far he can’t count on his defense to come up with stops. This game could go either way, but I’ll go with the disciplined Falcons of Air Force in a difficult non-conference road game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Air Force 28, Houston 24

Rice @ Vanderbilt
Both teams are 2-0 and coming off big wins. Vanderbilt came up with one of the program’s biggest wins in recent memory when they knocked off South Carolina on Thursday night. Rice simply scored three touchdowns in the final 7 minutes, including a game winning interception return for a touchdown with 11 seconds left, to overcome a 15 point 4th quarter deficit. This should be one of the more entertaining games of the week.
J.Pike’s Pick: Vanderbilt 31, Rice 27

Southern Miss @ Arkansas State
Who knew this would be a game to watch? Arkansas State jumped on my radar with a win over Texas A&M in week one, and Southern Miss was able to keep it relatively close against Auburn last week. I think Arkansas State’s bubble bursts here. Southern Miss has a talented team with a very potent offense. Corey Leonard and Arkansas State might pile 80+ points on 1-AA competition, but they won’t here. Welcome to the Mid-Leagues, Red Wolves.
J.Pike’s Pick: Southern Miss 34, Arkansas State 24

Bowling Green @ Boise State
Ian Johnson, the man responsible for scoring the game winning 2-point conversion against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl two seasons ago, is still in the backfield for the Broncos. That means he’ll get the ball early and often. Bowling Green visits the Smurf Turf after a puzzling first two weeks that saw them beat Pittsburgh and then get blown out by Minnesota. Boise shouldn’t have any problems, especially running the football.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 37, Bowling Green 21

Best Non-BCS Conference RBs

1. Ian Johnson, Boise State
Everybody knows who Ian Johnson is thanks to Boise State's big upset victory over Oklahoma two seasons ago in the Fiesta Bowl. Johnson's the guy who scored the winning points on a Statue of Liberty two-point conversion run and then subsequently proposed to his girlfriend. Johnson had some injury problems in 2007 and didn't play in two regular season games and only got 4 carries in the bowl game. He's the best all around back not in a BCS conference, with impressive career numbers of 3,418 yards and 45 touchdowns.

2. Damion Fletcher, Southern Miss
Fletcher is hot on Johnson's heels though with a bit more speed and two more seasons of eligibility to go. In two seasons in Hattiesburg he has surpassed the 100 yard mark in 16 games. Fletcher has an impressive 2,974 yards and 26 touchdowns already in his career.

3. Eugene Jarvis, Kent State
Pound for pound Eugene Jarvis has to be mentioned among the discussion of best running backs in the nation. Jarvis stands only 5-foot-5 and weighs in at only 170 pounds, but he's quickly establishing himself as one of the most feared backs in the nation. After being passed on in recruiting by all the BCS conference schools in the area, Jarvis has a chip on his shoulder and is out to prove all the recruiters that he can play big time football despite his size. With his quickness and ability to hide behind his offensive line and explode when a hole opens up, he'll be a nightmare for MAC defensive coordinators for the next two seasons.

4. Darrell Mack, Utah
5. Tyrell Fenroy, UL-Lafayette

OTHERS TO WATCH
Deonte Jackson, Idaho
Luke Lippincott, Nevada