Upeset Alert - Mountain West Edition

The Mountain West Conference has three teams ranked in the J&BP Top 25. This Saturday all three of those teams go on the road to face tough competition, so I’m putting the entire conference on Upset Alert. I predict at least one of the top three (Utah, TCU, BYU) will lose. Here’s a quick preview of the games in order of the likelihood of upset. By the way, if anybody knows what channel “The Mtn.” is, please let me know because for the first time ever I want to tune in to their network.

Utah (8-0) @ New Mexico (4-5)
(Saturday, 8:30 pm, The Mtn.)
Don’t ever count out Rocky Long’s troops. When quarterback Donovan Porterie went down for the season with an injury, the Lobos simply rallied around their potent running game. They are hanging around .500 thanks to the running of Rodney Ferguson. The senior tailback has paced the nation’s 13th ranked rushing attack with 865 yards and 11 touchdowns. Ferguson has his work cut out for him this week because the Utah front seven is one of the best in the Mountain West. Thanks to stars like Paul Kruger, Koa Misi, and Stevenson Sylvester, the Utes have limited opponents to 85.9 rushing yards per game this season (9th nationally). Can they hold up against Ferguson and company? One reason Utah is confident heading into this game is because of the play of their quarterback, Brian Johnson. Johnson has posted solid numbers and displayed impressive leadership skills in leading the Utes to their 8-0 mark. He has been the leading candidate for the Faulk Trophy for the entire season, and I expect him to play like he deserves the award Saturday. The Achilles heel for Utah all season has been their penchant for shooting themselves in the foot. Untimely penalties and turnovers have cropped up, but haven’t yet gotten the best of the Utes. New Mexico is a solid fundamental team that will be able to take advantage of these mistakes. That will get the momentum of the crowd going and give the Lobos an excellent shot at the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah 23

BYU (7-1) @ Colorado State (4-4)
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
Colorado State is looking for their first big win under new head coach Steve Fairchild and a home game against BYU would be the perfect opportunity to get it. If a winless Washington team can come within a blown extra point of taking BYU to overtime, why can’t the Rams do it too? Fairchild is striving for balance offensively with wide receiver Rashaun Greer and running back Gartrell Johnson, but the offensive line isn’t good enough yet for either phase to thrive. Facing an ever-improving BYU front seven that includes standouts David Nixon, Matt Bauman, and Jan Jorgensen doesn’t bode well for that unit. On the other side of the ball, BYU can score points, but they aren’t unstoppable. If you can pressure Max Hall you can knock him out of his rhythm. The problem is that Colorado State is last in the Mountain West with only 6 sacks this season. On emotion alone, the Rams will make this one a game in the second half, but in the end it will be difficult to make clutch stops against the potent BYU offense.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 34, Colorado State 24

TCU (8-1) @ UNLV (3-5)
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
When UNLV knocked off Arizona State earlier this season, it looked like the Rebels were finally going to turn the corner under coach Mike Sanford. Now that we are a little deeper into the season it looks like a win over ASU isn’t quite as impressive as it seemed at the time. But with quarterback Omar Clayton the Rebels will always have a chance to win. The problem is he will have to do it against one of the best defenses in the nation. TCU is in the top two nationally in each of the following categories: scoring defense (10.4 points per game), rushing defense (30.2 yards per game), total defense (218.9 yards per game), sacks (35), and turnover margin (+14). On top of all that, TCU has yet to allow a single point in the fourth quarter this season. So Omar Clayton had better watch his back because Jerry Hughes (12 sacks) and Jason Phillips will be coming after him on Saturday. For UNLV to pull the upset, they’ll need to play their best game and hope for one of those annual TCU choke jobs that tend to trip up the Horned Frogs just when they are gaining some national attention.
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 33, UNLV 16

WEEK EIGHT - Preview

This week we feature exciting matchups from the MAC, Conference USA, Sun Belt, and Mountain West that all have shootout potential

Western Michigan @ Central Michigan
Is this the battle that will decide the best team in Michigan? Not quite – the Spartans at Michigan State might have something to say about it. But both of these teams are probably better than Michigan right now. Each team is led by their outstanding quarterback – Tim Hiller for Western and Dan LeFevour for Central. Hiller is a really good pocket passer, while LeFevour is more in the Tim Tebow mold. The winner of this game will end up challenging Ball State for the MAC West division crown. I’ll give the Chippewas a slight edge since they are at home, but this should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.
J.Pike’s Pick: Central Michigan 36, Western Michigan 34

Southern Miss @ Rice
This matchup between two of the better teams in Conference USA will feature an impressive amount of skill position talent. Rice boasts arguably the best quarterback in the league (Chase Clement) and one of the most underrated wide receivers in the nation (Jarrett Dillard). Clement is a small college version of Chase Daniel – he’s small, but quick and efficient. He powers a potent passing game that also features rising star tight end James Casey, who has already caught 54 passes this season. Southern Miss features the best running back in the league (Damion Fletcher), the best freshman receiver in the league (DeAndre Brown), and one of the best pass catching tight ends in the nation (Shawn Nelson). That’s a lot of athleticism going up against two teams that put defense on the backburner - a shootout is imminent. Rice has the advantage with a more experienced team so the Owls should come out on top.
J.Pike’s Pick: Rice 37, Southern Miss 31

Arkansas State @ Louisiana-Lafayette
Arkansas State has slowed down after their scorching start. After a win over Texas A&M early, they have cooled off to 4-2 with recent losses to Memphis and Southern Miss. The Ragin’ Cajuns on the other hand are just getting heated up. Their running game ranks tops in the land and running back Tyrell Fenroy (842 rushing yards) and quarterback Michael Desormeaux (708 rushing yards) are starting to really run wild. Give UL-Lafayette the edge as they are on a roll and playing in front of the home folks.
J.Pike’s Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette 34, Arkansas State 26

Air Force @ UNLV
UNLV looked like they might be a surprise team in the Mountain West after their early season win over nationally ranked Arizona State. But it turns out ASU might not be very good this year and the Mountain West is better than anybody expected (other than my partner, B.Pike – he knew what was brewing out west). Air Force is once again one of the most efficient teams in the nation. They’ll make UNLV pay for every mistake they make, and fight for yet another victory over a more talented opponent.
J.Pike’s Pick: Air Force 26, UNLV 20

WEEK SIX - Preview

Now it’s time for our weekly look at the games that are flying under the national radar. The Commander In Chief Trophy is up for grabs in the Navy/Air Force game. The winner will have a leg up since Army doesn’t look to be a real threat. Conference USA is still wide open so UTEP and Southern Miss will battle to get in the race early. There are also key games in the second tier of the Mountain West and the MAC that could make the difference in who gets a bowl berth and who stays home in the post season.

UTEP @ Southern Miss
UTEP stumbled out of the gate this season, but coming off a big 58-13 win over Central Florida they look like they have finally found themselves. Quarterback Trevor Vittatoe and running back Terrell Jackson are underrated offensive weapons in Conference USA, and Southern Miss doesn’t play the same brand of fiery defense they played under the previous coaching staff. The Eagles have offensive weapons too, but UTEP has the better quarterback. The Miners are a team gaining momentum and they’ll pull off the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: UTEP 32, Southern Miss 27

UNLV @ Colorado State
In 50 mph winds last season, these two teams paired up to produce a combined 1,049 yards of offense. Colorado State was able to capitalize on 5 UNLV turnovers to win 48-23, despite giving up 559 yards. The weather won’t be the same again this year, but the UNLV offense essentially is. Omar Clayton is back at quarterback and executing Mike Sanford’s offense better than anybody in Sanford’s four years as head coach. On the other side of the field, new CSU head coach Steve Fairchild has struggled to fully implement his new offense. In the early going the Rams are scoring only 18.8 points per game, so look for UNLV to take better care of the ball and break their five game losing streak in this series.
J.Pike’s Pick: UNLV 30, Colorado State 26

Ball State @ Toledo
Toledo might have been suffering from a little bit of the old “look-ahead” when they lost to Florida International a week ago. Ball State is on top of the MAC right now with a 5-0 record, but they will play this game without one of their top players, Dante Love. Love suffered a spine injury a couple weeks ago and may never play football again. Quarterback Nate Davis is still around though, so don’t expect too much of a drop-off offensively. Home field advantage has been important in this series over the last decade or so (the home team is 11-3-1 since ’93), and I think Toledo will show up ready to play. I like Ball State, but this game has “upset” written all over it.
J.Pike’s Pick: Toledo 36, Ball State 31

Navy @ Air Force
You might be able to count the number of pass attempts in this game on one hand. Air Force (ironically) avoids the air at all cost while taking advantage of opponents’ mistakes better than anybody else in the country. Navy plays a similar style of football, but quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada Nahasapeemapetilon and running back Shun White have more big play ability than anybody on the Air Force offense. That will be the difference in the game, so go ahead and give Navy the Commander In Chief Trophy.
J.Pike’s Pick: Navy 27, Air Force 19

WEEK FIVE - Preview

Now it’s time for our weekly look at a handful of games that are flying under the national radar. Of the four games listed below, two are MAC matchups that should have a big impact on who makes it to the conference championship game. The other two matchups are in-state rivalry games, each featuring a team on the cusp of the top 25. All four games warrant at least a glance at the ticker because you’ll see the majority of these teams in bowl games at the end of the season.

Western Michigan @ Temple
When Western Michigan’s offense takes the field against Temple’s defense it will be team strength versus team strength. Western quarterback Tim Hiller has above average skills in the passing game, but he has shown that he can be rattled. So that’s exactly what John Haley and the Temple defense will try to do. The Owls’ defense has been decent so far this season, giving up less than 200 passing yards per game. Hiller has been on top of his game lately though, and he’ll get the job done in a tougher than anticipated game in Philadelphia.
J.Pike’s Pick: Western Michigan 28, Temple 20

Marshall @ West Virginia
This in-state rivalry ended up as a blowout a year ago, but Marshall actually led 13-6 at halftime. Mark Snyder finally has the Marshall program back on track after three straight sub-.500 seasons. The Herd sits at 3-1 (the lone loss was a competitive game against #9 Wisconsin) thanks to the play of their experienced defense. Marshall is limiting opponents to 118 rushing yards per game so far. Offensively the passing game is clicking due to the play of wide receiver Darius Passmore (26 receptions for 473 yards, 4 tds). Passmore has given freshman Mark Cann a reliable, playmaking target, which is always nice for a young quarterback. West Virginia on the other hand is 1-2 and struggling with their offensive identity. It seemed like new offensive coordinator Jeff Mullen wanted to make Pat White a pocket passer the first couple weeks, but got back to the running game against Colorado that won them 33 games in the past three seasons. The offense is still way to predictable, but there’s still enough speed between White and Noel Devine to score enough points to win this game.
J.Pike’s Pick: West Virginia 32, Marshall 27

Buffalo @ Central Michigan
It’s time. Turner Gill has slowly built this Buffalo program into one of the elite in the MAC. Central Michigan has been the measuring stick the last couple years thanks to quarterback Dan LeFevour’s Tebow-esque stats, but now is when Buffalo makes their move. Drew Willy has been playing lights out this year and he’ll guide the Bulls on another last minute touchdown drive to seal the biggest win in school history.
J.Pike’s Pick: Buffalo 28, Central Michigan 27

Nevada @ UNLV
UNLV’s upset of Arizona State two weeks ago is just one of the many examples of the quality and depth of the Mountain West conference this year. Led by sophomore quarterback Omar Conner, the Rebels are 3-1 and on the top 25 radar for the first time in a long time. I don’t know if Mike Sanford is chewing on any towels on the sidelines, but he should be. On the other sideline, Chris Ault leads Nevada with his innovative “Pistol” offense. The Pistol is now popping into playbooks at places like Florida and Ohio State, but Ault is the creator. Nevada has already played two top 15 teams this year, so don’t let their poor record fool you. The Wolfpack has beaten UNLV each of the last three years, but it looks like UNLV has finally turned the corner.
J.Pike’s Pick: UNLV 27, Nevada 24