WEEK NINE - Spotlight Game of the Week

#3 Penn State

at
#4 Ohio State

(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)

When Penn State has the ball
Penn State holds a huge five letter advantage over Ohio State: S-P-E-E-D. The last four losses suffered by the Buckeyes have all been at the hands of opponents with the speed to take advantage of those slow footed linebackers, and the Nittany Lions definitely have their share of speedsters.

The thing I like about Penn State so much this year is their balance offensively. Not just the fact that they average 234.6 rushing yards and 253.1 passing yards per game, but the number of different styles they can beat you with.

First there’s Bo Jackson Trophy candidate Even Royster in the backfield. He’s a bruiser that wears down defenses as the game goes along, but he also has deceptive speed that has allowed him to run for enough big gains to pad his average all the way up to 7.7 yards per carry! Then when defenses get tired of taking the beating from Royster, freshman Stefphon “Warp Speed” Green comes into the ball game.

Penn State can also spread the field and beat you throwing the football. You won’t find a more veteran trio of receivers in the nation than Jordan Norwood, Deon Butler, and Derrick Williams. All three are seniors with great speed and the smarts to get open in clutch situations. The Ohio State secondary is pretty good, but these guys will be able to get open and make key third down grabs to keep the chains moving. And don’t forget that Williams is one of the most dangerous punt returners in the nation too.

But the most impressive part about this Nittany Lion offense so far this year has been quarterback Darryl Clark. Clark entered the season as an unknown quantity that barely beat out big armed Pat Devlin for the starting job. All he has done is play as well as any quarterback in the Big Ten. Clark is a better than average passer, which makes his scrambling skills even more effective. All in all, he rounds out the offense perfectly.

The Ohio State defense has taken some hits recently, and deservedly so. The blowouts they have suffered at the hands of USC, LSU, and Florida were partly due to the lack of speed on that side of the ball. Penn State has speed and they’ll be able to score when they need to Saturday night.

When Ohio State has the ball
Freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor has given the Ohio State offense some much needed playmaking ability. With his running ability now a permanent fixture in the offense, defenses aren’t able play vanilla and shut down the Buckeyes.

If there’s one aspect of Pryor’s game that has been a surprise, it’s his passing touch. He has made some very nice throws this year and it’s only a matter of time before he gains consistency and becomes a star.

Unfortunately he doesn’t get much help from the current crop of receivers. Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie are two non-factors in games like this because they refuse to help their quarterback out. Both of these guys would rather complain to the officials and keep their uniforms clean than actually go up and make a catch in traffic. Against a ballhawking Penn State secondary that includes Anthony Scirrotto, that sort of attitude will lead to interceptions.

That means the onus offensively will be on the Buckeyes running game. Chris Wells entered the season as a Heisman Trophy candidate but has since fallen out of the race after missing several key games early with a toe injury. Wells is almost back to full strength so you can be sure Jim Tressel will use him early and often Saturday night.

Pryor also has excellent athleticism and can make defenders miss in the open field. He’ll need that athleticism because Penn State features one of the best pass rush duos in the nation in ends Aaron Maybin (10 sacks) and Josh Gaines (3.5 sacks). The Penn State defensive line has been so good this year that blitzing is rarely necessary. That has freed up the linebackers to make plays elsewhere, which will come in handy against Ohio State as they will be freed up to track Wells and Pryor.

All in all, there don’t appear to be many advantages for Ohio State on this side of the ball. If Terrelle Pryor isn’t making plays with his feet, points may be few and far between against the Nittany Lion defense.

Final Verdict
In short, I think Penn State is just a much better team than Ohio State right now. That’s not a knock against the Buckeyes, it’s more of a statement about how good Penn State is right now. There also don’t happen to be many matchups in this game that favor Ohio State. Even though it’s in The Horseshoe, Penn State will cruise to an easy victory and stake a claim to not only the Big Ten title, but to a berth in the national championship game as well.

J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 32, Ohio State 16

Spotlight Game of the Week

#5 Texas
vs
#1 Oklahoma
in Dallas, TX
(Saturday, 11 am, ABC)

When Texas has the ball
Most offenses these days go as their quarterback goes, and Texas is no exception. Colt McCoy has been playing at an elite level this year and he’s a big reason why the Longhorns are 5-0 and ranked in the top five in the nation. Not only is he one of the most efficient passers in the nation (79.2% completions), he’s also the team’s leading rusher (317 yards, 7.0 yards per carry).

Most importantly though, McCoy is playing with more confidence than he did a year ago, and he improved his strength and speed in the offseason. McCoy is a legit Bo Jackson Trophy candidate as of right now, and you can expect him to bring his A-Game Saturday morning.

Oklahoma will try to pressure McCoy, as they do everybody else, with their excellent pair of rush ends Auston English and Jeremy Beal. English and Beal have combined for 4 sacks this year and they’ll be coming hard off the edge early and often.

The problem for the Sooners is that this strategy plays right into the hands of the Longhorns. McCoy has actually been a better quarterback on the run this year, so with English and Beal flying around the corner, they’ll open up lanes for McCoy to break contain and make big plays with his arm or his legs. The massive Texas offensive line also has the advantage if the Sooners go to a power rush because English and Beal are too small (both are 6-foot-3, 253 pounds) to consistently beat the Texas OTs in a physical battle.

Texas has one big hole offensively and it is their running game. With McCoy leading the team in rushing yards, you know a running back hasn’t yet stepped up to fill Jamaal Charles’ shoes. Cody Johnson and Chris Ogbonnaya have had their moments, but they won’t have much room to run against OU’s defense. Fozzy Whittaker is the wild card here. Whittaker has been hampered by an knee injury all season, but in his limited action he has flashed the potential to be the go-to guy. If Whitaker is healthy, he’ll announce his presence on Saturday. That’s a big “if” though.

Oklahoma’s excellent defensive tackles are ailing too. Both NFL prospects Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus Granger are injured and there is a possibility neither will play. This is Texas/OU though, so you know they’ll give it their best shot to get in the game. How effective these two can be will be a big factor. If the Oklahoma DTs can control the line of scrimmage and completely take away the planned running game of the Longhorns it will give the Sooners a big advantage.

One injury that really hurts Texas in this matchup is at tight end where Blaine Irby is out for the season. His athleticism would play a big role against Oklahoma’s talented, but still relatively unproven linebackers. OU will definitely be blitzing a lot, and Irby would have been able to take advantage of all the room left in the middle of the field. I don’t think replacement Peter Ullman can be a difference maker in this department.

When Oklahoma has the ball
Quarterback Sam Bradford is only a sophomore, but he has pretty much defined the word “efficient” the past two seasons. This year Bradford is completing passes at a 72.6% rate and has thrown 18 touchdowns against only 3 interceptions. Best of all he’s ultra-composed in the pocket.

One reason Bradford has been able to stay so calm in the pocket is because of the performance of the massive offensive line in front of him. Oklahoma quarterbacks have been sacked only 5 times this year, and Phil Loadholt and Duke Robinson are two of the best linemen in the country.

One area Oklahoma has gouged Texas for big plays recently is on crossing routes across the middle of the field. Texas starts two freshmen at safety so that’s a spot the Sooners could capitalize on again. In fact, don’t be surprised if freshman slot receiver Ryan Broyles out-performs Manuel Johnson and catches a long touchdown pass on a crossing pattern at some point. Tight end Jermaine Gresham is arguably the best pass catching tight end in the nation, so he could come up big in this area too.

Texas will try to take away this advantage by trying to get to Bradford before he can find the open receiver. New defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has the Texas defense playing as well as any Texas defense in recent memory. He is accomplishing this feat by applying non-stop pressure and mixing up blitzes on every play so opposing offenses never know where the pressure will come from.

The pressure starts up front with defensive end Brian Orakpo and defensive tackle Roy Miller. These two have been playing at an All American level so far this year, with Orakpo compiling an eye-popping 6 sacks already, and Miller chipping in 13 quarterback pressures. Oklahoma will have to account for these two on every play or they’ll make the Sooners pay.

All the attention Orakpo and Miller draw has freed up blitzing linebackers to make plays in the backfield too. Linebacker Roddrick Muckelroy has simply made plays all over the field to the tune of 40 tackles, and he’ll clean up anything that happens to sneak by the front four.

Sophomore linebacker Sergio Kindle is finally living up to his immense hype thanks to Muschamp’s scheme. Kindle is second on the team in tackles (21) and sacks (2½) and has excellent speed for his size. All in all, Texas leads the nation with 19 sacks this year, so the question isn’t if they’ll get to Bradford – it’s how often.

If Texas is able to put the kind of pressure on Bradford they did Cody Hawkins a week ago, it will be even more important for Oklahoma to establish the running game. DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown have been solid this season, combining for 744 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns.

Last season Murray looked like the second coming of Reggie Bush, but ever since his knee injury he hasn’t shown the same level of speed or acceleration – he doesn’t seem to have regained that “fifth gear” yet. This is a concern because as a team, Oklahoma is averaging a pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry – and they haven’t played an elite defense yet. Against one of the best front sevens in the nation, the Sooners will need Murray to regain his old form and make plays when it doesn’t look like there is a play to be made.

Final Verdict
The key to this game will be which quarterback handles the pressure the best, and which team gets clutch yards out of its running game. Rushing yards will be at a premium, but neither team can afford to abandon the run completely and allow the opposing defense to pin their ears back and rush the passer. Even if it’s only two yards on third and short, that would be enough to keep the chains moving and the defense honest.

Special teams always play a role in games like this. A mistake on special teams can tip the balance one way or the other. Oklahoma is in the bottom 20 nationally in net punting and kick coverage, so this could be a hidden source of field position that Texas can take advantage of. Oklahoma has been gutted on kick returns this year, so don’t be surprised if Texas picks up some momentum with a long kick return at some point.

The biggest intangible in deciding this game for me is the fact that Texas is finally playing with a chip on their collective shoulders. Getting picked third in the Big XII South is a slap in the face to the Longhorns, and they are actually playing like they want to prove people wrong.

The youth of the team has actually served them well in this department because a majority of these players weren’t on the national title team and don’t have the same sense of entitlement that seems to surround the Oklahoma program these days. That sense of entitlement is what I believe has led to OU’s dismal performance in BCS bowls over the last five years. That’s why I think Texas wins this game and jumps into the national title picture.

J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 31, Oklahoma 20

Spotlight Game of the Week

#11 Alabama

at
#2 Georgia

(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)

When Alabama has the ball

When looking at the Alabama offense, you have to start in the backfield with their powerful pair of running backs. Glen Coffee and freshman Mark Ingram have been running wild on opponents this season. Coffee is averaging an amazing 8.6 yards per carry and has 404 rushing yards to show for it. Ingram has already compiled 263 yards and 4 touchdowns in his young career.

The reason these backs are so dangerous is because the offensive line is playing like five bulldozers. Left tackle Andre Smith is a blue chipper if there ever was one and heady center Antoine Caldwell has been a key component on the line for all of his four seasons on campus. This unit has paved the way for the Crimson Tide to roll up 236.8 yards rushing per game (5.9 yards per carry).

They haven’t faced a unit like Georgia yet this year though. The Bulldogs run defense has been outstanding, holding opponents to fewer than 50 yards rushing per game and an average of 2.0 yards per carry. Georgia’s quickness and depth along the defensive line will allow them to make some big stops, but I’ll give Alabama a slight advantage overall here. Although the Georgia D-Line is deep, you can’t lose players like DT Jeff Owens and DE Roderick Battle (both out with injuries) without suffering a little. Plus, Alabama’s running game is PHYSICAL and they’ll beat up on the Georgia line a little bit.

Georgia has a definite advantage when Alabama decides to throw the ball. Personally, I like John Parker Wilson as a quarterback, but he has proven to be inconsistent when you can put pressure on him. Georgia has the tools to bring plenty of heat. The Georgia front seven is one of the fastest and most athletic units in the nation. You’ll hear linebacker Rennie Curran’s name called a lot. The sophomore is by far the leader in tackles on the team (29), and has already posted 3 sacks on this young season. If Wilson has a bad day it will probably be because of Curran. Keep an eye on backup defensive end Justin Houston too. He’s a pass rushing specialist who could play a factor.

Another reason Wilson might have a rough game is because Georgia’s linebackers will make it very difficult to find his safety valve, tight end Nick Walker (team high 12 receptions). Dannell Ellerbe and Darryl Gamble are more than capable of hanging with Walker and taking him out of the game.

That means uber-recruit Julio Jones will need to step up. Jones clearly has all the talent and big play ability in the world, but is he accomplished enough on the intricacies of route running and beating bump coverage at the line to get open and bail Wilson out when he’s in trouble? We’ll find out. Jones will need to play well enough to make Georgia take that extra guy out of the box (and out of Wilson’s grill) in order to double-team him.

When Georgia has the ball

Much like the Alabama offense, Georgia’s offense starts in the backfield with running back Knowshon Moreno. Moreno is simply one of the best players in the nation. The sophomore exploded onto the scene in 2007 and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. He’s the most important player on the offense and he has a knack for picking up first downs. He also has a nose for the end zone, as evidenced by the 9 touchdowns he has scored in only 4 games this year.

Moreno hasn’t gotten as much help from his blockers as you might think either. The offensive line lost its best player when left tackle Trinton Sturdivant tore up his knee in preseason drills. Mark Richt has been forced to shuffle the lineup every week in an attempt to find the right chemistry. There is plenty of talent, but the line clearly hasn’t gelled yet.

Another missing cog in the blocking scheme was fullback Brannan Southerland. The senior is arguably the best blocking fullback in the nation and he hasn’t played yet this year due to a foot injury. However, his status has been upgraded to probable for this game. Don’t underestimate his presence – Georgia is a much better team with Sutherland in the lineup.

The questions up front mean that “Mount Cody” and his friends on the Alabama defense might be able to wreak some havoc. Junior defensive tackle Terrence Cody is the 365-pound beast in the middle of the defensive line that Nick Saban needs to execute his 3-4 defense to perfection. Cody has done nothing but produce this year, taking up plenty of space in the middle and managing to post 12 tackles, including 3 for loss.

Mount Cody’s play has freed up outside linebackers Brandon Fanney and Cory Reamer to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. The duo has combined for 6½ tackles for loss this year. Inside backer Rolando McClain doesn’t need any help to make plays. The sophomore is already one of the best linebackers in the SEC, which automatically puts him near the top of the list nationally. McClain leads the Tide in tackles (29) and will be in charge of containing Knowshon Moreno.

The wildcard here is Matthew Stafford. Stafford has the talent to be the best quarterback in the nation, but he hasn’t quite put it all together yet. He was responsible for the game winning touchdown pass in overtime against Alabama last year though, so he’ll definitely up to the big game challenge more than J.P. Wilson.

Stafford has formed an immediate connection with true freshman wide receiver A.J. Green. While Green doesn’t have quite the raw talent of Bama’s freshman phenom Julio Jones, he has managed to out-produce Jones by a considerable margin so far this year (16 receptions for 300 yards, 2 tds). Green will play a big role in this game. Even if he only notches three receptions, they will all be important plays.

The Alabama secondary is good. Safety Rashad Johnson is the leader of the unit and a certified ball-hawk. You’ll hear his name a lot because he’s always around the ball - whether it’s a run or a pass, Johnson will be there. Kareem Jackson will probably be tasked with keeping up with Green, so that will be a key matchup. Jackson is a solid corner, but he hasn’t faced a receiver with the size and speed of Green yet this year. The other cornerback, Javier Arenas, is a dynamo that is capable of scoring anytime he’s on the field. Arenas has already taken an interception (63 yard return) and a punt (87 yard return) to the end zone this year.

Even against Bama’s solid secondary, I think Georgia will be able to get enough yards through the air to maintain balance offensively.

Final Verdict

This game will come down to two factors: how well John Parker Wilson handles Georgia’s pressure and how Georgia’s re-tooled offensive line does against Alabama’s imposing front seven.

Georgia will get to Wilson. If he can stay focused in the pocket and make good throws despite the pressure Alabama will have a very good shot at winning.

Even though it appears on first glance that Alabama might have a slight edge in the trenches, Knowshon Moreno is a beast. Moreno flat out knows how to pick up the yards he needs to get to keep drives alive, and with the return of his fullback Brannan Southerland he’ll have even more opportunities to make the big play. Moreno is a fighter and a leader in every sense of the word and he won’t back down Saturday night until he’s led Georgia to victory.

J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, Alabama 20

WEEK FOUR - Spotlight Game of the Week

#7 LSU
at
#11 Auburn

(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)

When LSU has the ball
Les Miles finally found a running back to hitch his wagon to. His best offenses usually feature a great running back that can chew up yards and Charles Scott appears to fit that profile. He has been on a tear this season averaging a ridiculous 11.4 yards per carry and his strength/speed combination seems to be on par with Beanie Wells at Ohio State. Linebacker Tray Blackmon will have his work cut out trying to keep up with Scott. He’ll have to play a disciplined game to keep LSU’s running game in check.

You can expect a heavy dose of Scott (and Keiland Williams for that matter) because LSU is very inexperienced at quarterback. Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch have been splitting time this season and both will see time Saturday. Auburn’s defense is up to Tommy Tuberville’s usually high standards so you better believe they’ll be looking to put the pressure on the newbies. Sen’Derrick Marks is one of the best defensive linemen in the nation so he’ll be keeping Lee and Hatch company in the backfield all night long.

In a vacuum LSU might have a slight edge with their wide receivers going up against Auburn’s secondary. Demetrius Byrd is a great all around wideout and speedsters Brandon LaFell and Terrance Toliver provide big play ability. However, when you factor in the questionable quarterback play the Auburn DBs have a definite advantage. Warren McFadden has been playing as well as any cornerback in the nation so far.

On the whole I think LSU will be able to manufacture field position with their solid running game and at some point one of the talented wide receivers will make a play to break the game open.

When Auburn has the ball
Whoo-boy. If Auburn’s offense plays the way it did last week in a 3-2 win over Mississippi State I don’t know that they’ll even move the ball past midfield against LSU’s stingy defense.

Where to begin? First there is the complete lack of a real ground attack. Auburn has gone to the spread with new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. That’s fine and all, but Franklin has completely abandoned any non-shotgun formations in favor of a lot of passing and a sideways running game. The Tigers have been unable to convert in short yardage situations this season due to the change, and they haven’t even faced a defense the caliber of LSU yet.

Then there are the turnovers. Chris Todd and Ben Tate have struggled with shotgun handoffs this year, and that has led to turnovers at critical moments late in games when Auburn is just trying to run out the clock.

If all that isn’t enough, the Tigers benched Kodi Burns, a quarterback that can beat you with his legs, in favor of Todd. Todd might eventually be a solid player in this offense, but right now he’s not executing consistently enough to make the passing game click.

So Auburn can’t run and they can’t string together enough completions to sustain a drive. That’s not a good combination because across the line of scrimmage waits one of the most athletic defenses in the nation. Defensive linemen Ricky Jean-Francois, Kirston Pittman, and Tyson Jackson might make a meal out of Chris Todd if Auburn’s struggling offensive line doesn’t improve. Linebacker Darry Beckwith shouldn’t have any problem containing Ben Tate either.

All things considered, I’m not sure Auburn will even scrape together one drive that ends in an offensive touchdown. Prove me wrong Tony Franklin.

Final Verdict
Make no mistake – this game will be dictated by the defenses. The Auburn defense will not only have to play the best game they’ve played all season, they’ll probably have to score too since Chris Todd and the offense don’t appear likely to put many points on the board.

If Kodi Burns sees action at quarterback for Auburn I’ll give them a slightly better chance of winning. Despite the inexperience at quarterback, LSU still seems to be in much better shape to score points. In a game where points will be at a premium, that will be enough to get the win.

J.Pike’s Pick: LSU 16, Auburn 6

Thanks to The Helmet Project for the helmet logos.

WEEK THREE - Spotlight Game of the Week

#3 Ohio State
at
#2 USC

(Saturday, 7pm, ABC)

When Ohio State has the ball
Jim Tressel said he is “doubtful” for the game, but obviously Chris Wells is going to play a role. He sat out last week nursing his injured toe and the Ohio State offense really struggled against an Ohio defense that isn’t exactly up to USC standards. Can Beanie put the offense on his back and get the tough yards consistently? I believe he will be a factor early in the game.

However, the USC defense is extremely athletic and should be able to keep Wells from dominating the game. Middle linebacker Rey Maualuga and defensive tackle Fili Moala will play a big role in minimizing Wells’ rushing yards. Maualuga in particular is up for the challenge.

The wild card in the game plan is of course Terrelle Pryor. Pryor was used sparingly against Ohio, but I don’t blame Jim Tressel for that. Why give USC any ideas about how you are going to use your most versatile playmaker? Don’t be surprised if Pryor plays quarterback in a key series or two in the second half to jump start a lethargic offense.

Where I see USC having the biggest advantage over the Ohio State offense is in the passing game. Todd Boeckmann is a steady quarterback, but I don’t think he’s the kind of guy that can take over a game and make big throws when the game is on the line. Part of that has to do with what I consider to be average receiver play. Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie have never impressed me. They don’t like to go up and get the ball in traffic, choosing instead to lay back and whine to the official to try to get a pass interference call. That’s not going to produce anything other than punts in this game.

The USC corners will play physical against Robiskie and Hartline, which I believe will make the receivers a non-factor. That will in turn free up All American safeties Taylor Mays and Kevin Ellison to support the run or roam the field and create turnovers.

When USC has the ball
The one factor that has been holding the USC offense back the last two years has been quarterback play. John David Booty was a serviceable quarterback and he did a good job with his limited abilities, but Mark Sanchez appears to be up to the high standard set by Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart. If that is indeed the case, you can count on the USC offense scoring points at will again this season, no matter the opposition.

That doesn’t bode well for Ohio State on Saturday night. In the past two national championship games the Ohio State defense was abused by the speed of their opponents – Florida and LSU combined to score a whopping 79 points! Even against Ohio last weekend they weren’t able to stop the running game, and looked somewhat lost defending the spread offense. USC has the same kind of speed Florida and LSU had, and are obviously way more efficient offensively than Ohio.

I believe Ohio State has a good chance of stopping the USC ground attack. Joe McKnight is a flashy running back, and he might break a long run here, but overall I think the strength in the Buckeye front seven will beat him up a little bit and keep the rushing yards to a minimum.

However, Malcolm Jenkins and the Ohio State secondary could be in for a long day. USC has a lot of depth at wide receiver and I can see Damian Williams having a big day. If Mark Sanchez is up to the task, they’ll connect on a long touchdown pass at some point that will remind you of the “old days” of the early/mid ‘00s. That’s when you’ll know Ohio State is in trouble.

Final Verdict
The key to the game will be the play of Mark Sanchez. If he plays as well as he did opening weekend against Virginia and shows good accuracy on the deep ball, USC will win. If he’s turning the ball over and getting pressured into incompletions, Ohio State will have a chance.

The USC defense looks to hold a significant advantage over the Ohio State offense on paper. It’s going to be a chore for the Buckeyes to put points on the board unless Terrelle Pryor plays a major factor. Beanie Wells will get his yards early, but when the Buckeyes need to convert in passing situations I think they’ll end up punting more often than not. That will lead to more of a dependence on the passing game and it won’t matter if Wells is healthy or not.

J.Pike’s Pick: USC 31, Ohio State 17

Thanks to The Helmet Project for the sweet helmet logos.

WEEK ONE - Spotlight Game of the Week

#25 Alabama
vs
#6 Clemson
in Atlanta, GA
(Saturday, 7pm, ABC)

When Alabama has the ball
One of the most intriguing matchups in this game will be Alabama left tackle Andre Smith against Clemson’s rush ends Ricky Sapp and DaQuan Bowers. Sapp and the freshman Bowers will probably be one of the best pass rush duos in the nation this year, but Smith is an All American and more than capable of holding his own.

Defensive tackle Dorrell Scott will be the Clemson lineman making the most noise in this game. Bama center Antoine Caldwell is a good one, but with all the attention on the ends, Scott will spend some time in the backfield.

John Parker Wilson was wildly inconsistent in 2007. He showed flashes of being a very good quarterback though, so I expect the senior to play well in stretches, even against the solid Clemson secondary. There’s no doubt he’ll take advantage of freshman man-child Julio Jones early and often. Jones has great size and speed and will step right in for D.J. Hall in the offense and provide a dangerous deep threat for Wilson.

The mismatch here might be running back Terry Grant. Bama likes to use Grant a lot in the passing game, and Clemson is breaking in all new linebackers. There’s no shortage of athleticism, but don’t be surprised to see Wilson hit Grant for a big play on busted coverage underneath.

When Clemson has the ball
One thing you can count on is that James Davis and C.J. Spiller will get the ball. They’ll get it early and they’ll get it often. Alabama runs a 3-4 defense, but there might not be enough linebackers in uniform to actually execute it. Three projected starters are out: Prince Hall and Jimmy Johns are both suspended, but even worse, Ezekial Knight has a heart condition and may have to give up football altogether.

The linebacking corps will eventually shape up and become a strong point for Nick Saban, but James Davis should carve out 100 yards rushing in this game.

Whereas the Bama O-Line vs the Clemson D-Line was strength on strength, the Clemson O-Line vs the Bama D-Line will be weakness on weakness. The Clemson offensive line was pretty bad in 2007 so the Tide might be able to put some pressure on quarterback Cullen Harper. If Brandon Deaderick can live up to his potential and come through with a pass rush, Rashad Johnson and Kareem Jackson will be able to lock down in the secondary pretty well. Top receiver Aaron Kelly is back, but the Clemson passing attack isn’t as potent as they sometimes appear to be in the stat columns.

Final Verdict
In what should be a close, well played defensive battle, I like Clemson’s running game to grind out the clock and keep the chains moving against a thin Alabama front. I also think Clemson’s defense is too fast and too good to allow the Crimson Tide to score enough points to win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Clemson 23, Alabama 17

Thanks to the Helmet Project for the team helmet logos.