9.12.2008

WEEK THREE - Spotlight Game of the Week

#3 Ohio State
at
#2 USC

(Saturday, 7pm, ABC)

When Ohio State has the ball
Jim Tressel said he is “doubtful” for the game, but obviously Chris Wells is going to play a role. He sat out last week nursing his injured toe and the Ohio State offense really struggled against an Ohio defense that isn’t exactly up to USC standards. Can Beanie put the offense on his back and get the tough yards consistently? I believe he will be a factor early in the game.

However, the USC defense is extremely athletic and should be able to keep Wells from dominating the game. Middle linebacker Rey Maualuga and defensive tackle Fili Moala will play a big role in minimizing Wells’ rushing yards. Maualuga in particular is up for the challenge.

The wild card in the game plan is of course Terrelle Pryor. Pryor was used sparingly against Ohio, but I don’t blame Jim Tressel for that. Why give USC any ideas about how you are going to use your most versatile playmaker? Don’t be surprised if Pryor plays quarterback in a key series or two in the second half to jump start a lethargic offense.

Where I see USC having the biggest advantage over the Ohio State offense is in the passing game. Todd Boeckmann is a steady quarterback, but I don’t think he’s the kind of guy that can take over a game and make big throws when the game is on the line. Part of that has to do with what I consider to be average receiver play. Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie have never impressed me. They don’t like to go up and get the ball in traffic, choosing instead to lay back and whine to the official to try to get a pass interference call. That’s not going to produce anything other than punts in this game.

The USC corners will play physical against Robiskie and Hartline, which I believe will make the receivers a non-factor. That will in turn free up All American safeties Taylor Mays and Kevin Ellison to support the run or roam the field and create turnovers.

When USC has the ball
The one factor that has been holding the USC offense back the last two years has been quarterback play. John David Booty was a serviceable quarterback and he did a good job with his limited abilities, but Mark Sanchez appears to be up to the high standard set by Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart. If that is indeed the case, you can count on the USC offense scoring points at will again this season, no matter the opposition.

That doesn’t bode well for Ohio State on Saturday night. In the past two national championship games the Ohio State defense was abused by the speed of their opponents – Florida and LSU combined to score a whopping 79 points! Even against Ohio last weekend they weren’t able to stop the running game, and looked somewhat lost defending the spread offense. USC has the same kind of speed Florida and LSU had, and are obviously way more efficient offensively than Ohio.

I believe Ohio State has a good chance of stopping the USC ground attack. Joe McKnight is a flashy running back, and he might break a long run here, but overall I think the strength in the Buckeye front seven will beat him up a little bit and keep the rushing yards to a minimum.

However, Malcolm Jenkins and the Ohio State secondary could be in for a long day. USC has a lot of depth at wide receiver and I can see Damian Williams having a big day. If Mark Sanchez is up to the task, they’ll connect on a long touchdown pass at some point that will remind you of the “old days” of the early/mid ‘00s. That’s when you’ll know Ohio State is in trouble.

Final Verdict
The key to the game will be the play of Mark Sanchez. If he plays as well as he did opening weekend against Virginia and shows good accuracy on the deep ball, USC will win. If he’s turning the ball over and getting pressured into incompletions, Ohio State will have a chance.

The USC defense looks to hold a significant advantage over the Ohio State offense on paper. It’s going to be a chore for the Buckeyes to put points on the board unless Terrelle Pryor plays a major factor. Beanie Wells will get his yards early, but when the Buckeyes need to convert in passing situations I think they’ll end up punting more often than not. That will lead to more of a dependence on the passing game and it won’t matter if Wells is healthy or not.

J.Pike’s Pick: USC 31, Ohio State 17

Thanks to The Helmet Project for the sweet helmet logos.

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