National Championship Race - One Loss Teams

Since a team with at least one loss has won the national title each of the last two seasons, it’s only logical to take a look at the one-loss teams that are still in position to grab a berth in the BCS Championship Game should the teams ahead of them in the poll falter. Here are the six teams I think have the best chance.

OKLAHOMA (6-1)
Remaining Schedule: @Kansas State, Nebraska, @Texas A&M, Texas Tech, @Oklahoma State, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of winning out: 85%
Chance of playing for the national title: 35%
This is probably the best one-loss team in the nation right now. The Sooners have one of the best quarterbacks in the land in Sam Bradford, and the schedule is more than manageable the rest of the way. If Oklahoma wins out, they’ll only need two of the three teams ahead of them in the poll to lose in order to sneak into the national title game.
J.Pike’s Pick: 11-1, BCS Bowl

GEORGIA (6-1)
Remaining Schedule: @LSU, vsFlorida, @Kentucky, @Auburn, Georgia Tech, SEC Championship Game
Chance of winning out: 20%
Chance of playing for the national title: 15%
Speaking of sneaking around, is there a one-loss team getting less attention right now than Georgia? For a preseason #1 ranked team, there isn’t much hype around the Bulldogs. Sure they have suffered a ton of injuries, especially along both lines, but there are still championship caliber pieces in place. The Dawgs had better get used to hotels because their next four games are all on the road. The next two weeks against LSU and Florida in particular will give Mark Richt’s squad a chance to jump right back into the thick of things – don’t be surprised if they make a statement in one or both of those games.
J.Pike’s Pick: 11-2, SEC Champs, BCS Bowl

USC (5-1)
Remaining Schedule: @Arizona, Washington, California, @Stanford, Notre Dame, @UCLA
Chance of winning out: 70%
Chance of playing for the national title: 25%
We all know the drill by now. USC is talented, no doubt. But don’t let the media fool you into thinking these are the best 22 players in the nation - there’s a reason the Trojans have lost two games each of the last two seasons. The players at USC tend to read their press clippings and buy into the hype. That’s why subpar teams like Stanford and Oregon State are able to knock them off. That’s also why I think somebody else (Arizona this weekend?) will knock them off again this year, driving them out of the national title race for good. Until Pete Carroll can lure leaders like Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush to Los Angeles again, USC will be nothing more than an over-talented, underachieving media darling.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, Pac-10 Champs, BCS Bowl

OHIO STATE (7-1)
Remaining Schedule: Penn State, @Northwestern, @Illinois, Michigan
Chance of winning out: 20%
Chance of playing for the national title: 10%
Nobody wants to hear it, but Ohio State is quietly positioning themselves for yet another run at a berth in the BCS National Championship Game. After debacles in that game each of the last two seasons – not to mention a debacle in Southern California earlier this season – nobody wants to see the Buckeyes in a position to get blown out on a national stage again. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor has taken over the offense and is crafting a new identity for Ohio State. Luckily for all of us he doesn’t have any help in the receiving corps, and the defense is too slow footed to beat Penn State, so Ohio State’s string of title game appearances will end this bowl season.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, BCS Bowl

FLORIDA (5-1)
Remaining Schedule: Kentucky, vsGeorgia, @Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Citadel, @Florida State, SEC Championship Game
Chance of winning out: 25%
Chance of playing for the national title: 10%
I keep going back and forth on Florida. One week I’ll think they have enough speed to beat just about anybody, then the next week I’ll realize Urban Meyer’s offense is just smoke and mirrors with no real running game. The Florida/Georgia game will eliminate one of the two from the national title race for good, but the Gators can’t afford to overlook Kentucky, Vanderbilt, or South Carolina or they’ll get upset again.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, no BCS bowl

LSU (5-1)
Remaining Schedule: Georgia, Tulane, Alabama, Troy, Ole Miss, vsArkansas, SEC Championship Game
Chance of winning out: 10%
Chance of playing for the national title: 2%
The defending national champs suffered a seeming knockout blow two weeks ago when they lost 51-21 to Florida. The Tigers need to win this weekend against injury-riddled Georgia to hang on to any hopes of defending their crown. Alabama also comes calling in early November, so the chances going back to back are slim.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, no BCS bowl

National Championship Race - The Undefeated

Now that we have whittled the number of unbeatens down to single digits, it’s time for Pikes Picks to take a look at the national title race. In this installment I will take a look at the nine remaining undefeated teams, break down each of their remaining schedules, and give you my pick on which teams will finish undefeated and which teams will play in the BCS National Title Game.

BALL STATE (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, @Miami(OH), @Central Michigan, Western Michigan, MAC Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 40%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 10%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Ball State is led by their outstanding quarterback Nate Davis. Unfortunately, their other Faulk Trophy candidate, wide receiver Dante Love, suffered a spine injury earlier this season that will likely end his football career. The Cardinals have played well since losing Love, but will they be able to go to Mount Pleasant, Michigan in late November and knock off MAC stalwart Central Michigan? I’m not sure they can.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, no BCS bowl

TULSA (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: UCF, @Arkansas, @Houston, Tulane, @Marshall, Conference USA Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 60%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 25%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Todd Graham and Gus Malzahn have the Golden Hurricane offense tearing through opposing defenses like, well, a Golden Hurricane. They are averaging 56.6 points per game and put up 77 on UTEP last Saturday! Senior quarterback David Johnson is in his first year starting, but has already displayed big play ability thanks to his great touch on the deep throws. The defense hasn’t really needed to do much this year, so there are still question marks on that side of the ball that need to be answered on back to back road trips to Arkansas and Houston if Tulsa is to remain undefeated.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-1, Conference USA champs, no BCS bowl

BOISE STATE (6-0)
Remaining Schedule: @San Jose State, @New Mexico State, Utah State, @Idaho, @Nevada, Fresno State
Chance of going undefeated: 80%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 70%
Chance of playing for the national title: 2%
Boise State is surprisingly led by a freshman quarterback and a stout defense. Defense is definitely not the first thing that comes to mind when discussing the Broncos, but this unit is pretty good. Only one team has managed to top 7 points against Boise so far and that was Oregon - who only had 13 points entering the fourth quarter. The Boise State secondary is playing extremely well so far, picking off 11 passes and limiting opponents to below 50% completions. But the gutsy play of freshman quarterback Kellen Moore is the reason the Broncos will most likely run the table.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-0, WAC champs, BCS Bowl

TEXAS TECH (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, @Oklahoma, Baylor, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 0%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 5%
Chance of playing for the national title: 0%
Texas Tech made it to 7-0 by playing a schedule that consisted of two Division 1-AA opponents and exactly zero teams ranked anywhere near the top 25. The past two weeks the Red Raiders have struggled against the mediocre teams in the Big XII, so there is a good chance they could lose each of the next four games against the better teams in the conference. At least head coach Mike Leach will still have his offensive stats to fall back on when he’s 8-4 again.
J.Pike’s Pick: 9-3, no BCS bowl

UTAH (8-0)
Remaining Schedule: @New Mexico, TCU, @San Diego State, BYU
Chance of going undefeated: 55%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 55%
Chance of playing for the national title: 5%
Don’t discount the Mountain West Conference because Utah is for real. The Utes have stormed out to an 8-0 start thanks to an aggressive defense and Faulk Trophy favorite QB Brian Johnson. The meat of the schedule remains with nationally ranked TCU and BYU. Both games are at home, but both teams will present legitimate challenges in completely different ways. If Utah makes it through the rest of the season undefeated, they should easily grab their second ever BCS Bowl berth.
J.Pike’s Pick: 11-1, Utes will be more deserving of a BCS bowl bid than Boise State, but won’t get one

OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Texas, Iowa State, @Texas Tech, @Colorado, Oklahoma, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 10%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 15%
Chance of playing for the national title: 5%
We’ll find out just how for real the Cowboys are this weekend when they travel to Austin to face #1 ranked Texas. Mike Gundy and the Pokes have been one of the biggest surprises of 2008 not because of their prolific, balanced offense, but because of their surprising improvement on defense. Again, we’ll find out how much better they are on defense this weekend. Since Gundy took over the play calling again (former OC Larry Fedora took the head coaching job at Southern Miss in the offseason), the offense has gotten more physical thanks to the running of Kendall Hunter. With Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma left on the schedule though, chances are slim they make it through unscathed.
J.Pike’s Pick: 9-3, no BCS bowl

ALABAMA (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Tennessee, Arkansas State, @LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, SEC Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 50%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 90%
Chance of playing for the national title: 45%
If there’s one word you could use to describe Alabama, it’s “physical”. The Crimson Tide are looking to beat up every last team on their schedule and anybody who doubts them. That approach will win them a lot of games, but the lack of consistency on offense will make it difficult to run through the SEC undefeated.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-1, BCS bowl

PENN STATE (8-0)
Remaining Schedule: @Ohio State, @Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State
Chance of going undefeated: 80%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 95%
Chance of playing for the national title: 75%
If you haven’t had the chance to watch this Penn State team yet, make sure and tune in Saturday night when the Nittany Lions invade the Horseshoe. Joe Paterno’s squad is probably the most well-rounded team in the nation. Quarterback Darrell Clark steadies a speedy offense that can run between the tackles with the immensely underrated Evan Royster, or pick you apart in the passing game with three senior wide receivers. Aaron Maybin (10 sacks) and the defensive line is flat out dominating right now, which has allowed the ballhawking secondary to roam free and intercept 11 passes. Don’t discount the senior leadership on this team. Playing in the Big Ten means they have the best shot at going undefeated, and therefore playing in the BCS Championship Game.
J.Pike’s Pick: 12-0, National Title game

TEXAS (7-0)
Remaining Schedule: Oklahoma State, @Texas Tech, Baylor, @Kansas, Texas A&M, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of going undefeated: 70%
Chance of making a BCS bowl: 98%
Chance of playing for the national title: 70%
If defense wins championships, the Longhorns are definitely in the discussion. Will Muschamp has his troops playing as aggressively as anybody, and when you have linemen that are as physically dominant as Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller it makes everybody look good. But the reason this team is dangerous is their hunger to win. When Colt McCoy takes the Sports Illustrated with his image on the cover and throws it in the trash before the Missouri game, you know this is a special team. Difficult games against Oklahoma State and Kansas loom large, but this Texas teams seems to be up to any task.
J.Pike’s Pick: 13-0, Big XII Champs, National Title game

JP25 Update

Wow. Texas is playing as good a football as you could hope to expect from any team right now. The chemistry and leadership on that team is now officially championship caliber. So in response I have slightly reshuffled my top 3. Alabama is looking more and more beatable every week, and with the loss of their nose tackle, "Mount" Cody, they are going to be vulnerable in the coming weeks.

The Mountain West Conference is no longer a back burner league. The quality of teams in this league appears to be deeper than the Big East, and at least on par with the ACC this season, so they deserve to have three teams ranked.

Top 25 (last week, record)
1. Texas (3, 7-0)
2. Penn State (2, 8-0)
3. Alabama (1, 7-0)
4. Oklahoma (4, 6-1)
5. Georgia (5, 6-1)
6. USC (8, 5-1)
7. Ohio State (10, 7-1)
8. Florida (6, 5-1)
9. Oklahoma State (13, 7-0)
10. LSU (9, 5-1)
11. Utah (12, 8-0)
12. Missouri (7, 5-2)
13. Kansas (14, 5-2)
14. TCU (25, 7-1)
15. Texas Tech (15, 7-0)
16. Boise State (18, 6-0)
17. Tulsa (20, 7-0)
18. Georgia Tech (21, 6-1)
19. Boston College (--, 5-1)
20. Pittsburgh (24, 5-1)
21. Virginia Tech (16, 5-2)
22. BYU (11, 6-1)
23. Arizona (--, 5-2)
24. Oregon (22, 5-2)
25. South Florida (--, 6-1)

Dropped Out: North Carolina (17), Michigan State (19), Cal (23)
Just Missed The Cut: Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Maryland, Florida State, California, Michigan State, Northwestern, Minnesota, Cincinnati

Tony Pike Update

All systems go for launch. Tony Pike's broken left forearm is healed enough for the super-human to take the field wearing a protective pad around his cast. Cincinnati (5-1) will get their star quarterback in the lineup to face Connecticut. Head coach Brian Kelly said his junior Heisman candidate will "do the things we ask him to do within our offense and we won't change anything. It's a green light." That means UConn's scoreboard operator had better be prepared because he is going to get a workout on Saturday.

Week Eight Results

B.PIKE

Against The Spread
Week Games: 2-1 (66.7%)
Saturday: 29-20 (59.2%)

Week Eight Total: 31-21 (59.6%)
SEASON TOTAL: 193-177-9 (52.1%)

J.PIKE

Straight Up
Week Games: 2-1 (66.6%)
Top 25 Picks: 15-1 (93.8%)
Under the Radar: 4-0 (100%)
Picks for Breakfast: 3-7 (30%)

Week Eight Total: 24-9 (72.7%)
SEASON TOTAL: 187-58 (76.3%)

Against The Spread
Locks: 2-2 (50%)
Other Picks: 4-5 (44.4%)

Week Eight Total: 6-7 (46.2%)
SEASON TOTAL: 51-43-1 (54.2%)
SEASON TOTAL ("Locks"): 25-13 (65.8%)

It took eight weeks, but one of us finally tasted perfection in 7 on 7 Drills. I did as well as you can possibly do, going 7-0 and padding two more games on my lead in the process. And Brent, if you keep picking against Texas I'll keep adding to my lead.

1. #23 Georgia Tech 21, Clemson 17
Jason: Georgia Tech
Brent: Georgia Tech
2. Boston College 28, #18 Virginia Tech 23
Jason: Boston College
Brent: Virginia Tech
3. #12 LSU 24, South Carolina 17
Jason: LSU
Brent: LSU
4. #4 Oklahoma 45, #14 Kansas
Jason: Oklahoma
Brent: Oklahoma
5. #21 TCU 32, #8 BYU 7
Jason: TCU
Brent: TCU
6. #6 Ohio State 45, #16 Michigan State 7
Jason: Ohio State
Brent: Ohio State
7. #1-t Texas 56, #9 Missouri
Jason: Texas
Brent: Missouri

WEEK EIGHT RESULTS
Jason 7-0 (100%)
Brent 5-2 (71.4%)

SEASON TOTALS
1. Jason 37-19 (66.1%)
2. Brent 34-22 (60.7%)

Football for Breakfast

It might be Week Eight of the college football season, but it’s Week One in J.Pike’s new Saturday headquarters. As I mentioned in a previous post, I recently bought a house. Well, we got the cable and internet set up, so this will be the first of what will surely be many football watching Saturdays in the new place. There are still several items left out of the equation, such as a place to sit and a grill to make my own brisket, but these two issues should be remedied in the very near future.

While I get comfortable in my spot on the floor, here’s a few more picks:

Wake Forest 24, Maryland 17
As my partner said, take the fundamentally sound Demon Decons over the wildly inconsistent Terrapins.

Purdue 30, Northwestern 27
Joe Tiller’s needling of Curtis Painter in the media will finally pay off. No, Painter won’t play any better, but the offensive coordinator will decide to give the ball to his talented tailback Kory Sheets more than usual. That plus a surprisingly decent defense will get the Boilers a much needed win.

Connecticut 27, Rutgers 20
Rutgers has a good chance to pick up their first win over a Division 1-A opponent this season since UConn QB Tyler Lorenzen is sitting out due to injury. But Husky running back Dennis Brown will be too much for the stunting Scarlet Knights. He might be held to no gain several times, but when Rutgers blitzes the wrong hole Brown will make them pay.

Wisconsin 29, Iowa 15
Wisconsin’s schedule played a big part of their recent “struggles”, but Iowa has been struggling for years now. I expect the Wisconsin defense to set the tone early by exposing the Hawkeyes’ average-at-best quarterback play. That will allow P.J. Hill and John Clay to run the Iowa defense ragged, control the clock, and put Wisconsin back on the right track.

Nebraska 32, Iowa State 23
Nebraska’s woes in the secondary will be evident early in this game, but the Husker offense will take control in the second half and Bo Pelini will make the necessary adjustments to get Nebraska back on the plus side of .500.

Navy 23, Pittsburgh 21
These are exactly the kind of ballgames Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers have lost the past couple seasons. Just when they are starting to pick up momentum, they’ll catch a solid fundamental football team like Navy and lay an egg. The Navy backfield of quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada Nahasapeemapetilon and running back Shun White don’t have the talent of their counterparts, but they’ll outshine them today with their deadly efficient triple option attack.

Stanford 29, UCLA 26
I’m hesitant to pick this game because it seems like every time I pick either one of these teams to win, they end up losing. UCLA is once again suffering through an injury plagued season, so I think the feisty Stanford bunch will be able to pick up the road win.

Colorado 36, Kansas State 23
Colorado has another year to go before they are a player in the North, but at least the Buffs are headed in the right direction. Kansas State fans can tell you they’re due for another lifeless performance.

Washington 26, Oregon State 24
This is a total hunch pick. Everything in my head says Oregon State wins handily. But I have a feeling Ty Willingham’s squad will find a way to get their first win of the season.

Tennessee 26, Mississippi State 12
Check it out Brent – I’m picking against My Bulldogs! Tennessee quarterback Nick Stephens is starting to get comfortable in his role as the starting quarterback, so the Vols will score a bit more than the pathetic 11.3 points they have averaged the last four weeks. Eric Berry and company shouldn’t have any troubles shutting down the anemic Croomdawg offense.

WEEK EIGHT - Top 25 Preview (Part II: Top 10)

Ole Miss at #1-t Alabama
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
If Ole Miss hadn’t already pulled an upset over Florida earlier this season, I’d be tempted to pick them here. But you can be sure Nick Saban let his team know about that upset every day the last two weeks in preparation for this game. Alabama will lose a game this year because of their inconsistent passing game, but I don’t think it will be this one. They’ll need to make a few plays late in this one though because Houston Nutt can coach and his Rebels will be ready to play.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 23, Ole Miss 22

#9 Missouri at #1-t Texas
(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
There’s no way Chase Daniel will play as bad as he did last week again. He hasn’t had a game that bad the past two years and he’ll be going up against a young Texas secondary. If Will Muschamp can mix up the coverages the way Oklahoma State did and confuse Daniel, who often makes his decision on who to throw the ball to before the snap, Texas will be able to hold Mizzou’s potent offense to a reasonable score. But it only takes one mis-step by one of the freshmen safeties for the explosive Jeremy Maclin to take it to the house. Texas is playing with an edge this year – the chemistry and leadership on this team is as good as you’ll find anywhere. Colt McCoy might not win the head-to-head quarterback battle, but his team will get the win by playing better football in all other aspects of the game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 38, Missouri 31

Michigan at #3 Penn State
(Saturday, 3:30 pm, ESPN)
Michigan is in trouble. At 2-4, their record string of 33 consecutive bowl appearances appears to be in jeopardy. That’s why the Wolverine defense will show up here to prove to the nation they aren’t quitters. Make no mistake, Penn State is on a mission this year and they won’t lose this game at home. But don’t be surprised if the Michigan defense keeps it reasonably close.
J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 27, Michigan 10

#14 Kansas at #4 Oklahoma
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
You can’t ask for more in a head coach than Kansas has in Mark Mangino. His teams play some of the smartest football in the land and they rarely make mistakes. The problem is the talent isn’t on Oklahoma’s level. Kansas will play it close thanks to a passing game that features Todd Reesing and Kerry Meier. But the running game won’t get anything against the Oklahoma defense, and that will be the difference in the game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma 42, Kansas 28

Vanderbilt at #5 Georgia
(Saturday, 11:30 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
Please fasten your seatbelts and return your tray tables to their upright and locked positions Vanderbilt fans because you are now in the descent portion of your season. I love the effort of this team, and head coach Bobby Johnson is still one of the most underrated commodities in the nation. But they don’t have the talent to compete throughout the season against the likes of Georgia. Watch out though because Vandy’s secondary is legit and they’ll give Matt Stafford a hard time. Knowshon Moreno is the Dawgs not-so-secret weapon and he’ll be the difference in the game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 27, Vanderbilt 13

#6 Ohio State at #16 Michigan State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
This should be a good old fashioned Big Ten football game. Will Master Tressel be able to maintain his edge over his protégé Mark Dantonio? I’m going to tentatively say yes – but the student is most definitely closing the gap on his teacher. Javon Ringer will prove that he is better than Beanie Wells, but it won’t be enough. The Ohio State defense will take away MSU’s passing game, eliminating their balance. That will allow the remarkably poised freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor to lead the Buckeyes to a late touchdown drive to win the game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ohio State 19, Michigan State 16

#7 Florida is idle

#10 USC at Washington State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, FSN)
Washington State is one of the worst teams in the nation thanks to the limited roster new head coach Paul Wulff inherited. USC is still in a post-Leinart/Bush lull – Mark Sanchez threw 3 interceptions last week against a lifeless Arizona State team. USC will win by 30 on talent alone, but I’m still not convinced they are a dominant force.
J.Pike’s Pick: USC 48, Washington State 12