Gameday Commentary - 12:30 pm

*Iowa State is looking really good so far against Kansas. Gene Chizik might be even further along in his rebuilding plans than I expected. If they can hold on against Kansas (up 20-0 in the middle of the second quarter) it would be a great win.

*Robert Griffin needs some help. Griffin has breathtaking athletic ability and Baylor is playing a lot harder for Art Briles than they have in the past, but Oklahoma is just waaaay better.

*Usually the home fans are always rooting for their team to go for it on fourth down, but here's a random PREDICTION: Mike Leach will be the first head coach in the history of football to get booed for GOING FOR IT on fourth down. Leach is one of the rare exceptions where the fans might actually be smarter than the head coach when it comes to decisions like that.

*Penn State is a team to be reckoned with. They aren't playing great against Purdue so far (10-0 lead early second half), but you can just see that they have all the pieces to make a serious run at the Big Ten title. They have the makeup of a team that can win even on an off day, and the skill and toughness to beat anybody when they are on top of their game.

*Florida on the other hand is looking more and more like that loss to Ole Miss wasn't a fluke. Urban Meyer's offense is in neutral because apparently Tim Tebow isn't the "greatest player of our generation." The Gators are struggling against a bad Arkansas team early.

Week Three Preview

Iowa State (+13) over Iowa
This rivalry has produced some very close games recently. Both schools are 2-0 this season, and Iowa has won their two contests by a combined score of 88-3. Don’t let that fool you though – Iowa’s big wins came against Maine and Florida International. Iowa State is a team on the rise with Gene Chizik at the helm, and he has an impressive quarterback in Austin Arnaud. The Cyclones will keep this game close and have a good shot at winning the game outright.

Baylor (+2½) over Washington State
Baylor is bad, but Washington State might be worse. Coming off a 66-3 loss at the hands of Cal, the Cougars must travel to Waco to face an offense that seems be gaining their footing in Art Briles’ new offense. Baylor will pick up the first meaningful win of the Briles era in this one.

Central Michigan (-3½) over Ohio
Don’t be fooled by Ohio’s gutsy performance against Ohio State last weekend. They still don’t stand much of a chance against MAC powerhouse Central Michigan. QB Dan LeFevour will show the Buckeyes how to move the ball against Frank Solich’s Bobcats.

UCLA (+9) over BYU
I’m not sure how BYU is favored by 9 points in this game. UCLA plays great defense and will get after Max Hall all day long. That will keep the game close enough for UCLA’s offense, hobbled by injuries, to sneak out with the win.

Southern Miss (+1½) over Arkansas State
Arkansas State has produced two “whoa” moments already this year. In week one they beat Texas A&M in College Station, and last week they scored 83 points in a win over Texas Southern. But Southern Miss still has the overall talent edge with running back Damion Fletcher and tight end Shawn Nelson. USM wins this one outright.

Stanford (+12) over TCU
This was a tight contest last year, and that was only Jim Harbaugh’s first season. Stanford is playing even more consistent football this season and they’ve already got two conference games under their belt. That early season experience gives the Cardinal a slight edge over TCU so if they don’t win outright, they’ll definitely keep it within 12.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to qualify them as “Locks":
Illinois (-24½) over Louisiana-Lafayette
Oregon (-7½) over Purdue
Penn State (-26½) over Syracuse
Michigan (Pick’em) over Notre Dame
Georgia Tech (+7) over Virginia Tech
Western Michigan (-8) over Idaho
Mississippi State (+10½) over Auburn
Kentucky (-16½) over Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma (-20) over Washington
Utah (-24½) over Utah State

Week Three Preview

UPSET WATCH

#1 Georgia @ South Carolina
Why it could happen: Because it happened last year. South Carolina’s defense was able to keep Georgia out of the end zone, and they are loaded on that side of the ball this year.
Why it won’t happen: Georgia is a much better team now than the one that lost to USC a year ago. Even though there are mostly the same faces, this team grew up after that loss, and Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford are now two of the best in the country.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, South Carolina 13

Iowa State @ Iowa
Why it could happen: It’s a rivalry game and anything can happen. On top of that, Iowa State is a team on the rise. Gene Chizik has the offense headed in the right direction and freshman quarterback Austin Arnaud is more than capable of leading an upset victory.
Why it won’t happen: The Iowa defense isn’t as good as their stats so far this year, but they’re good enough. The Hawkeyes seem to be playing better as a team this year, and their offensive line finally seems up to Kirk Ferentz standards. That will give Iowa the ability to control the ball and the clock, which will ultimately be the key to victory.
J.Pike’s Pick: Iowa 27, Iowa State 24

UPSET WARNING

#9 Auburn @ Mississippi State
Why it will happen: Mississippi State will keep the turnovers to a minimum and play outstanding defense. The new Auburn offense will learn a lesson about abandoning physical football. Good luck with that sideways running game against the speedy Bulldogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Mississippi State 15, Auburn 12

Stanford @ TCU
Why it will happen: TCU is always sketchy when they are supposed to be good. Stanford on the other hand has been playing over their heads ever since Jim Harbaugh took the job. Running back Toby Gerhart will prove you can run the ball against the usually stout TCU defense and Stanford will out-heart the Horned Frogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Stanford, 27, TCU 24

News & Notes

* Wyoming head coach Joe Glenn named JC transfer Dax Crum the starting quarterback. That leaves Karsten Sween, who started for the Cowboys the past two seasons, relegated to backup duty. Which begs the question: what the hell kind of name is “Dax Crum”?

* USC’s Matt Sanchez and Joe McKnight each suffered minor injuries in practice. Both are expected to be fine for the regular season, but this offense has been slipping recently, and these are two first time starters who could use the repetitions to gel with the rest of the offense.

An interesting side note to the Sanchez injury – redshirt freshman Aaron Corp is taking the snaps with the first team offense in his place instead of the highly touted Mitch Mustain. I’m guessing Pete Carroll is going to receive an angry call from Momma Mustain soon.

* Virginia Tech lost another wide receiver when Frank Beamer suspended Zach Luckett from the team indefinitely. The Hokies top four receivers from last season all graduated and the top three heading into ‘08 have all been lost due to injury or suspension. Now Poly must rely on true freshmen to get the job done. Tyrod Taylor better be ready to take over the QB job full time because he’s the only playmaker left on this depleted offense.

* Colorado named Demetrius Sumler the starting running back ahead of stud true freshman Darrell Scott. Sumler is a fine player, so all this means is the Buffs will have excellent depth in the running game.

* Tennessee tight end Brandon Warren has been cleared to play this season after transferring from Florida State. Two years ago Warren was one of the most impressive freshmen in the country, and he’ll make an immediate impact at Tennessee.

This news couldn’t come at a better time for the Vols either. After losing tight ends Chris Brown and Brad Cottam to the NFL draft, projected starter Jeff Cottam injured his knee in practice and will be miss the first half of the season.

* Purdue running back Jaycen Taylor tore up his knee and will miss the 2008 season. Kory Sheets will take over full time, but he doesn’t have quite the same ability Taylor does.

* SMU senior quarterback Justin Willis has been demoted to third string on new head coach June Jones’ depth chart behind somebody called Bo Levi Mitchell. Willis has started for the Mustangs the past three years so the move comes as a surprise.

* As expected, UCLA has named Kevin Craft the starting quarterback. Craft, a transfer from San Diego State, got the nod in large part because Ben Olson and Patrick Cowan are the two most injury-prone players to ever play major college football. But Craft can play a little bit too, so expect him to have a fine season playing for Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow.

* Ralph Friedgen has changed his starting quarterback again. Chris Turner, who played well in spots last season, has been replaced in the lineup by injury-plagued Jordan Steffy. Josh Portis, a transfer from Florida, is expected to see action as well. Friedgen said Portis has as much athleticism as any player he’s ever coached, so expect him to contribute a highlight reel play at some point this year.

* In another quarterback competition that went as expected, Cal has named Kevin Riley the starter over Nate Longshore. Long”spare” has been playing mediocre football for far too long, and Riley proved in the Bears’ bowl win over Air Force that he has what it takes to succeed in Jeff Tedford’s offense.

* Oregon quarterback Nate Costa suffered an injury to the same knee that caused him to miss all of last season. As of now the severity of the injury is unknown, but I have a hunch that Justin Roper is warming up in the bullpen already. Get your panic buttons ready Duck fans.

* Miami has suspended projected starting quarterback Robert Marve for the season opener against Charleston Southern. That means true freshman Jacory Harris will have the first shot at filling the ballerina slippers of Kirby Freeman and Kyle Wright.

* Gene Chizik has chosen a winner in the heated quarterback competition at Iowa State. Austen Arnaud will get first crack at the job. Phillip Bates will see the field though - he played wide receiver last season and has too much athleticism to keep on the sidelines.

* N.C. State redshirt freshman Russell Wilson was tabbed by head coach Tom O’Brien as the starter for the Thursday night opener against South Carolina. Wilson beat out incumbent Daniel Evans, Nebraska transfer Harrison Beck, and Justin Burke, who is transfering to Louisville.

* Notre Dame tight end Mike Ragone tore up his knee and will sit out the season. The Domers were already thin at tight end, so it will be up to incoming freshmen to handle an important position in Charlie Weis’ offense.

Big XII Preview

Favorites

North: Missouri
Gary Pinkel has the best collection of athletes he’s ever had at Missouri, so it’s time for the Tigers to take the next step. The defending North champs return an array of playmakers, including Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and William Moore, that are among the elite in all of college football. If Missouri doesn’t win the division it would be a huge disappointment.

South: Oklahoma
“Big Game” Bob has taken some lumps lately in bowl games. Somehow he gets a pass though because Coach October has done a great job in Big XII play over that same stretch, winning five out of nine conference titles. OU is once again the consensus favorite to win the South because of some key returnees on offense. But there are sizeable holes on defense (just ask Pat White) that make them more vulnerable than you might think.

Sleepers
North: Nebraska
New head coach Bo Pelini will turn this program around sooner than you think. There is talent on hand and nobody will be taking the Cornhuskers seriously after the debacle last season. Nebraska also has the benefit of hosting Missouri and Kansas so a run at the Big XII title game isn’t out of the question.

South: Texas
It’s hard to refer to Texas as a “sleeper”, but the Longhorns aren’t getting a lot of respect from the national media despite a strong finish to the 2007 season. Oklahoma is justifiably getting most of the preseason hype, but even Texas Tech has been a trendy pick to contend in the South ahead of Texas. The Red River Rivalry will once again determine the South champ though, and Texas has the athletes to pull it out.

On the Rise: Iowa State
Gene Chizik quietly did a good job laying the foundation in 2007. He injected some enthusiasm back into the program that had waned in recent years. This offseason he placed a big emphasis on getting stronger as a team, and that will also pay dividends on the field. Defense is Chizik’s specialty so you can expect improvement on that side of the ball. With four starters returning on the offensive line and a pair of gifted young quarterbacks, the offense might even be a little more potent in 2008 than it was last season.

Declining: Kansas State
Signing 19 junior college players and paying Fresno State to get lost in favor of a 1-AA cupcake on the schedule (too bad Texas wasn’t available) sends a pretty clear signal that Ron Prince thinks his days are numbered. Will these stopgap measures work, or will they just make a bigger mess for the next coach to clean up? Looks like a sinking ship to me.

PROJECTED STANDINGS & RECORDS

North
1. Missouri	11-1 (7-1 conference)
2. Nebraska	8-4 (4-4)
3. Kansas	8-4 (4-4)
4. Colorado	6-6 (4-4)
5. Iowa State	6-6 (3-5)
6. Kansas State	5-7 (2-6)
South
1. Texas	11-1 (7-1)
2. Oklahoma	11-1 (7-1)
3. Texas Tech	8-4 (4-4)
4. Texas A&M	6-6 (3-5)
5. Oklahoma State	6-6 (3-5)
6. Baylor	2-10 (0-8)

PLAYERS OF THE YEAR
Offense: Chase Daniel (QB, Missouri)
Defense: William Moore (DB, Missouri)
Special Teams: Jeremy Maclin (KR, Missouri)

NATIONAL AWARDS CANDIDATES
Justin Brantly (P-A&M) – Sproles/Sauerbrun
Ian Campbell (DE-KSt) – Arrington
John Chiles (QB-Tex) – Frazier
Perrish Cox (KR-OSU) – Sproles/Sauerbrun
Michael Crabtree (WR-Tech) – Bo Jackson
Chase Daniel (QB-Miz) – Bo Jackson, J.Pike’s Fave
Auston English (DE-Okl) - Arrington
Mike Goodson (RB-A&M) – Bo Jackson, Sayers
Graham Harrell (QB-Tech) – Bo Jackson
Jeremy Maclin (WR-Miz) – Bo Jackson, Sproles/Sauerbrun
William Moore (DB-Miz) – Arrington, Deion
Joe Mortensen (LB-Kan) - Arrington
DeMarco Murray (RB-Okl) – Sayers, Sproles/Sauerbrun
Brian Orakpo (DE-Tex) – Arrington
Zac Robinson (QB-OSU) - Frazier
Gold Wrenches:
Oklahoma offensive line
Texas offensive line
Oklahoma defensive line
Texas Tech offensive line
Texas defensive line
Nebraska offensive line
Colorado defensive line

Big XII's Best QBs

1. Chase Daniel, Missouri

The Missouri signal caller oozes confidence and leadership. He was so good in 2007 that he almost completely negated the "Gary Pinkel Factor" by leading the Tigers to 12 wins. Daniel will be in the running for the Heisman Trophy in 2008.

2. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech

His video game numbers (5,705 yards, 48 TDs) actually seem to hurt him. Instead of noticing the impressive arm strength and deep ball touch, he is written off as a system quarterback. Don't listen to that set though, he's the most talented QB in the Mike Leach era.

3. Colt McCoy, Texas

McCoy's sophomore season almost seemed like a letdown due to the expectations heaped on him after his incredible freshman season. He'll bounce back into form in 2008 though as he continues to grow up in front of one of the most quarterback-critical crowds in the nation. Hey, can you blame them for being jaded after the Major Applewhite/Chris Simms situation?

4. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma

The freshman "burst" onto the scene in 2007 by breaking Colt McCoy's record with 36 touchdown passes as a freshman. He's a steady performer, but he also had a ton of talent around him and a superb offensive lineman to make him look good. He also has to learn how to run the no huddle offense the Sooners plan on running in 2008.

5. Joe Ganz, Nebraska

Why exactly wasn't this guy on the field the first nine games of last season? After Sam Keller's injury against Texas, Ganz took over and not only threw for more touchdowns (in only three games!) but seemed to inspire his teammates, which is something the coaching staff never seemed to accomplish. With more confidence placed in him by the new coaching staff, look for Ganz to have a big breakout season.

OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON:
Jarrod Johnson, Texas A&M

The big, strong armed sophomore might actually get a shot at the starting job. Even if he doesn't win the job outright he can take solace in the fact that he's by far the most talented QB on the roster.

Austen Arnaud / Phillip Bates, Iowa State

Both sophomore quarterbacks have above average athleticism and a bigger upside than any Iowa State quarterback since Seneca Wallace. Whoever wins the job will benefit from an offense that is gaining momentum.