New Mexico Bowl Preview

NEW MEXICO BOWL

Albuquerque, NM
December 20, 2008


Fresno State (7-5) vs Colorado State (6-6)
(Saturday, 1:30 pm, ESPN)

New Colorado State head coach Steve Fairchild did a solid job in his first year, guiding the Rams to their first bowl game since 2005. Fairchild has a background in offense in the NFL so obviously the first signs of improvement will show up on that side of the ball.

Running back Gartrell Johnson had over 1,000 yards rushing and wideout Rashaun Greer went over the 1,000 yard mark receiving, but the Rams were inconsistent at turning yards into points this year. They will provide a test to Fresno State's young, injury-depleted defense though. Fresno must attempt to slow down the powerful running of Johnson without their top defensive lineman Jon Monga, who injured his foot in late November.

Luckily the Bulldogs will be able to put points on the board thanks to their fine running game. Ryan Mathews, Lonyae Miller, and Anthony Harding have combined for 1,994 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground so far in 2008. Unfortunately Mathews, the best of the bunch, has been out since the beginning of November with a lingering knee injury. He's questionable for the New Mexico Bowl, but considering the fact Colorado State allows over 185 rushing yards per game, and 5.2 yards per carry, I think Fresno will be just fine.

J.Pike's Pick: Fresno State 34, Colorado State 20

Upeset Alert - Mountain West Edition

The Mountain West Conference has three teams ranked in the J&BP Top 25. This Saturday all three of those teams go on the road to face tough competition, so I’m putting the entire conference on Upset Alert. I predict at least one of the top three (Utah, TCU, BYU) will lose. Here’s a quick preview of the games in order of the likelihood of upset. By the way, if anybody knows what channel “The Mtn.” is, please let me know because for the first time ever I want to tune in to their network.

Utah (8-0) @ New Mexico (4-5)
(Saturday, 8:30 pm, The Mtn.)
Don’t ever count out Rocky Long’s troops. When quarterback Donovan Porterie went down for the season with an injury, the Lobos simply rallied around their potent running game. They are hanging around .500 thanks to the running of Rodney Ferguson. The senior tailback has paced the nation’s 13th ranked rushing attack with 865 yards and 11 touchdowns. Ferguson has his work cut out for him this week because the Utah front seven is one of the best in the Mountain West. Thanks to stars like Paul Kruger, Koa Misi, and Stevenson Sylvester, the Utes have limited opponents to 85.9 rushing yards per game this season (9th nationally). Can they hold up against Ferguson and company? One reason Utah is confident heading into this game is because of the play of their quarterback, Brian Johnson. Johnson has posted solid numbers and displayed impressive leadership skills in leading the Utes to their 8-0 mark. He has been the leading candidate for the Faulk Trophy for the entire season, and I expect him to play like he deserves the award Saturday. The Achilles heel for Utah all season has been their penchant for shooting themselves in the foot. Untimely penalties and turnovers have cropped up, but haven’t yet gotten the best of the Utes. New Mexico is a solid fundamental team that will be able to take advantage of these mistakes. That will get the momentum of the crowd going and give the Lobos an excellent shot at the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah 23

BYU (7-1) @ Colorado State (4-4)
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
Colorado State is looking for their first big win under new head coach Steve Fairchild and a home game against BYU would be the perfect opportunity to get it. If a winless Washington team can come within a blown extra point of taking BYU to overtime, why can’t the Rams do it too? Fairchild is striving for balance offensively with wide receiver Rashaun Greer and running back Gartrell Johnson, but the offensive line isn’t good enough yet for either phase to thrive. Facing an ever-improving BYU front seven that includes standouts David Nixon, Matt Bauman, and Jan Jorgensen doesn’t bode well for that unit. On the other side of the ball, BYU can score points, but they aren’t unstoppable. If you can pressure Max Hall you can knock him out of his rhythm. The problem is that Colorado State is last in the Mountain West with only 6 sacks this season. On emotion alone, the Rams will make this one a game in the second half, but in the end it will be difficult to make clutch stops against the potent BYU offense.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 34, Colorado State 24

TCU (8-1) @ UNLV (3-5)
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
When UNLV knocked off Arizona State earlier this season, it looked like the Rebels were finally going to turn the corner under coach Mike Sanford. Now that we are a little deeper into the season it looks like a win over ASU isn’t quite as impressive as it seemed at the time. But with quarterback Omar Clayton the Rebels will always have a chance to win. The problem is he will have to do it against one of the best defenses in the nation. TCU is in the top two nationally in each of the following categories: scoring defense (10.4 points per game), rushing defense (30.2 yards per game), total defense (218.9 yards per game), sacks (35), and turnover margin (+14). On top of all that, TCU has yet to allow a single point in the fourth quarter this season. So Omar Clayton had better watch his back because Jerry Hughes (12 sacks) and Jason Phillips will be coming after him on Saturday. For UNLV to pull the upset, they’ll need to play their best game and hope for one of those annual TCU choke jobs that tend to trip up the Horned Frogs just when they are gaining some national attention.
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 33, UNLV 16

WEEK SEVEN - Locks

Syracuse (+23½) over West Virginia
Syracuse is bad, but West Virginia hasn’t shown the ability to beat anybody by more than three touchdowns this year. With Pat White suffering through nagging injuries, I don’t expect that pattern to change.

Utah (-23) over Wyoming
Utah is playing good football right now and Wyoming simply is not. The Cowboys aren’t even averaging double digits in points this season (by far the worst in the nation), so a shutout by the strong Utah defense is more than possible – it’s probable. Utah quarterback Brian Johnson can easily manufacture at least 30 against this group.

Colorado State (+15½) over TCU
This is the kind of game that seems to trip up TCU just about every year. The Horned Frogs are favored on the road against a team with a new coach that is improving every week. Not only do I think Colorado State covers this large spread, I think they have an excellent shot at winning outright.

Louisiana-Lafayette (-21) over North Texas High
If I actually put money on these bets, I would have gotten rich betting against North Texas High School this season. Louisiana-Lafayette has the nation’s top rushing offense and Tyrell Fenroy nearly topped the 300-yard mark a week ago against Louisiana-Monroe! Look for the Ragin’ Cajuns to to approach 500 yards rushing and completely control the clock in this game.

Tulsa (-25) over SMU
This seems to be the week where I capitalize on the big spreads. Tulsa is tops in the nation averaging 56.4 points per game. June Jones is struggling to get his passing attack going as the Mustangs sit on a 1-5 record averaging only 22 points per game. Tulsa wins big.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Texas (+7) over Oklahoma
Illinois (-12½) over Minnesota
Arizona State (+28) over USC
Buffalo (-1) over Western Michigan
Miami (-16½) over Central Florida
Arizona (-6½) over Stanford
Iowa State (+4½) over Baylor
San Jose State (-14) over Utah State
Missouri (-14) over Oklahoma State
UTEP (-4) over Tulane

WEEK SEVEN - Preview

Now it’s time for our weekly look at the games that are flying under the national radar. TCU is on upset alert this weekend as they travel to Colorado Springs to face a new coach and a team that appears to be improving every week. And two matchups in the MAC should have a direct impact on the conference title game in that conference.

TCU @ Colorado State
New head coach Steve Fairchild is doing a good job so far at Colorado State. The Rams are 3-2 and have been steadily improving every week. Wide receiver Rashaun Greer (6th nationally with 570 receiving yards) has been a key component in an offense averaging a respectable 260.8 passing yards per game, and he’ll give TCU’s stout defense something to think about. TCU’s running game is strong this year, averaging 246.7 yards per game, but the passing game isn’t going to scare anybody. There’s also the look-ahead factor for the Frogs as they have nationally ranked BYU on the schedule next week. If Colorado State can load up the box and take away the TCU ground game, they’ll be able to put enough points on the board to give Fairchild his first big win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Colorado State 28, TCU 24

Western Michigan @ Buffalo
Western Michigan is 4-1 and looking like a serious contender in the MAC. Quarterback Tim Hiller leads an offense that is clicking right now, averaging 32.2 points per game. But Hiller doesn’t always play well on the road. Buffalo head coach Turner Gill will make it difficult on Hiller to sit back in the pocket and without being pressured, and that will knock him off his game. Meanwhile, Drew Willy and the offense will produce the knockout punch and climb back into the thick of the MAC race.
J.Pike’s Pick: Buffalo 31, Western Michigan 27

Temple @ Central Michigan
Ever since quarterback Dan LeFevour stepped on campus, the Chippewas have been the big shots in the MAC. LeFevour put up incredible numbers a year ago (compare them to Tim Tebow if you like), and he’s one of the better non-BCS quarterbacks around. Temple though brings a very good, very experienced defense to the table. The Owls are limiting opponents to only 18.5 points per game (3rd in the MAC) and will challenge LeFevour and the offense from start to finish. Unfortunately Temple doesn’t have enough offense to pull the upset though.
J.Pike’s Pick: Central Michigan 21, Temple 14

WEEK SIX - Preview

Now it’s time for our weekly look at the games that are flying under the national radar. The Commander In Chief Trophy is up for grabs in the Navy/Air Force game. The winner will have a leg up since Army doesn’t look to be a real threat. Conference USA is still wide open so UTEP and Southern Miss will battle to get in the race early. There are also key games in the second tier of the Mountain West and the MAC that could make the difference in who gets a bowl berth and who stays home in the post season.

UTEP @ Southern Miss
UTEP stumbled out of the gate this season, but coming off a big 58-13 win over Central Florida they look like they have finally found themselves. Quarterback Trevor Vittatoe and running back Terrell Jackson are underrated offensive weapons in Conference USA, and Southern Miss doesn’t play the same brand of fiery defense they played under the previous coaching staff. The Eagles have offensive weapons too, but UTEP has the better quarterback. The Miners are a team gaining momentum and they’ll pull off the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: UTEP 32, Southern Miss 27

UNLV @ Colorado State
In 50 mph winds last season, these two teams paired up to produce a combined 1,049 yards of offense. Colorado State was able to capitalize on 5 UNLV turnovers to win 48-23, despite giving up 559 yards. The weather won’t be the same again this year, but the UNLV offense essentially is. Omar Clayton is back at quarterback and executing Mike Sanford’s offense better than anybody in Sanford’s four years as head coach. On the other side of the field, new CSU head coach Steve Fairchild has struggled to fully implement his new offense. In the early going the Rams are scoring only 18.8 points per game, so look for UNLV to take better care of the ball and break their five game losing streak in this series.
J.Pike’s Pick: UNLV 30, Colorado State 26

Ball State @ Toledo
Toledo might have been suffering from a little bit of the old “look-ahead” when they lost to Florida International a week ago. Ball State is on top of the MAC right now with a 5-0 record, but they will play this game without one of their top players, Dante Love. Love suffered a spine injury a couple weeks ago and may never play football again. Quarterback Nate Davis is still around though, so don’t expect too much of a drop-off offensively. Home field advantage has been important in this series over the last decade or so (the home team is 11-3-1 since ’93), and I think Toledo will show up ready to play. I like Ball State, but this game has “upset” written all over it.
J.Pike’s Pick: Toledo 36, Ball State 31

Navy @ Air Force
You might be able to count the number of pass attempts in this game on one hand. Air Force (ironically) avoids the air at all cost while taking advantage of opponents’ mistakes better than anybody else in the country. Navy plays a similar style of football, but quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada Nahasapeemapetilon and running back Shun White have more big play ability than anybody on the Air Force offense. That will be the difference in the game, so go ahead and give Navy the Commander In Chief Trophy.
J.Pike’s Pick: Navy 27, Air Force 19