Pac-10 Preview

Projected Records & Standings

1. USC                10-2  (8-1)
2. CALIFORNIA         10-2  (7-2)
3. OREGON              8-4  (6-3)
4. ARIZONA STATE       8-4  (6-3)
5. OREGON STATE        8-4  (5-4)
6. STANFORD            7-5  (5-4)
7. ARIZONA             6-6  (3-6)
8. UCLA                4-8  (3-6)
9. WASHINGTON          4-8  (3-6)
10.WASHINGTON STATE    1-11 (0-9)

Champion: USC
Is there really anybody else you can pick to win the Pac-10? Even though Cal looks to have a good team and might even beat USC this season, and USC is as inexperienced on defense as they have ever been, you still have to give the Trojans the nod. Until Pete Carroll proves otherwise, he’s the coach to beat in the Pac-10. I’ll even go so far as to say the offense might get better in 2009. I never really liked John David Booty or Matt Sanchez at the quarterback spot – they seemed to miss out on a lot of big play opportunities with inaccurate throws down the field. If new quarterback Aaron Corp has better touch on the deep ball, look out.

Question the Hype: UCLA
There’s not much that angers me more than hearing UCLA fans blame their pitiful 2008 season (4-8) on former head coach Karl Dorrell. Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t the Bruins winning more than four games a season when Dorrell was coaching? I hear the “poor recruiting” card played on Dorrell a lot, and I just don’t buy it. The guy won games with his players (he beat USC just two seasons ago), and Neuheisel didn’t – it’s that simple.

So why is UCLA widely expected to make dramatic improvements in 2009? They have the same porous offensive line blocking for the same running backs and an even more inexperienced quarterback. More importantly, though, a defense that was the only bright spot on the team a year ago lost their coordinator when DeWayne Walker left to take over as head coach at New Mexico State. Walker was a great DC and I expect the Bruins to take a step back on defense without him, even though several playmakers return on that side of the ball.

Could Surprise: ARIZONA STATE
Arizona loses their quarterback, top receiver, and most talented running back. They also have had some of the worst offensive line play in the Pac-10 over the past two seasons. So why do I expect the Sun Devils to step up in 2009? Well the defense has the makings to be one of the best in the conference. The top tackler (LB Mike Nixon), sack leader (DE Dexter Davis), and interception leader (Nixon) all return. Additionally, four starters return on the offensive line and Danny Sullivan is a big-armed quarterback who could make Dennis Erickson’s offense hum if he can adjust to the starting role.

If that’s not enough, get this stat: since 2002, Arizona State has finished ranked in the top 25 every season in which they were unranked in the preseason. The Sun Devils aren't ranked anywhere near the top 25 so far this preseason.

Bo Jackson Trophy Candidates:
Top 3:
RB-Jahvid Best, California
RB-Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State
RB-LeGarrette Blount, Oregon

Ten to Watch:
QB-Aaron Corp/Matt Barkley, USC
RB-Toby Gerhart, Stanford
WR-D’Andre Goodwin, Washington
TE-Rob Gronkowski, Arizona
QB-Jake Locker, Washington
QB-Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon
RB-James Montgomery, Washington State
C-Kris O’Dowd, USC
WR-James Rodgers, Oregon State
QB-Matt Scott, Arizona
WR-Damien Williams, USC

Herzlich Trophy Candidates:
Top 3:
DT-Brian Price, UCLA
CB-Syd’Quan Thompson, California
LB-Mike Nixon, Arizona State

Ten to Watch:
LB-Reggie Carter, UCLA
DE-Dexter Davis, Arizona State
DE-Everson Griffen, USC
DT-Lawrence Guy, Arizona State
LB-Keaton Kristick, Oregon State
FS-Taylor Mays, USC
DE-Daniel Te’O-Nesheim, Washington
CB-Walter Thurmond, Oregon
CB-Trevin Wade, Arizona
CB-Alterraun Verner, UCLA

Week Three Preview

Iowa State (+13) over Iowa
This rivalry has produced some very close games recently. Both schools are 2-0 this season, and Iowa has won their two contests by a combined score of 88-3. Don’t let that fool you though – Iowa’s big wins came against Maine and Florida International. Iowa State is a team on the rise with Gene Chizik at the helm, and he has an impressive quarterback in Austin Arnaud. The Cyclones will keep this game close and have a good shot at winning the game outright.

Baylor (+2½) over Washington State
Baylor is bad, but Washington State might be worse. Coming off a 66-3 loss at the hands of Cal, the Cougars must travel to Waco to face an offense that seems be gaining their footing in Art Briles’ new offense. Baylor will pick up the first meaningful win of the Briles era in this one.

Central Michigan (-3½) over Ohio
Don’t be fooled by Ohio’s gutsy performance against Ohio State last weekend. They still don’t stand much of a chance against MAC powerhouse Central Michigan. QB Dan LeFevour will show the Buckeyes how to move the ball against Frank Solich’s Bobcats.

UCLA (+9) over BYU
I’m not sure how BYU is favored by 9 points in this game. UCLA plays great defense and will get after Max Hall all day long. That will keep the game close enough for UCLA’s offense, hobbled by injuries, to sneak out with the win.

Southern Miss (+1½) over Arkansas State
Arkansas State has produced two “whoa” moments already this year. In week one they beat Texas A&M in College Station, and last week they scored 83 points in a win over Texas Southern. But Southern Miss still has the overall talent edge with running back Damion Fletcher and tight end Shawn Nelson. USM wins this one outright.

Stanford (+12) over TCU
This was a tight contest last year, and that was only Jim Harbaugh’s first season. Stanford is playing even more consistent football this season and they’ve already got two conference games under their belt. That early season experience gives the Cardinal a slight edge over TCU so if they don’t win outright, they’ll definitely keep it within 12.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to qualify them as “Locks":
Illinois (-24½) over Louisiana-Lafayette
Oregon (-7½) over Purdue
Penn State (-26½) over Syracuse
Michigan (Pick’em) over Notre Dame
Georgia Tech (+7) over Virginia Tech
Western Michigan (-8) over Idaho
Mississippi State (+10½) over Auburn
Kentucky (-16½) over Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma (-20) over Washington
Utah (-24½) over Utah State

WEEK THREE - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

UNLV at #11 Arizona State
(Saturday, 9 pm, FCS-Pacific)
Arizona State gets one final tune-up before Georgia comes to town.
J.Pike’s Pick: Arizona State 35, UNLV 13

Western Kentucky at #12 Alabama
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN360.com)
The Alabama offense was awful last week against Tulane, gaining only 172 total yards. Western Kentucky, the newest addition to 1-A, should cure what ails them.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 31, Western Kentucky 14

#13 Penn State at Syracuse
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
Penn State flexed their muscles last week in a dominating win over Oregon State. As a reward they get to feast on a Syracuse team that was embarrassed by Akron. The Penn State front four has suffered more injuries and suspensions than you can count, but they’ll still make it nearly impossible for Syracuse to score in this game. And the Nittany Lion offense won’t have a problem against an inept Syracuse defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 38, Syracuse 7

N.C. State at #14 Clemson
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN360.com)
This is step two in the rehab process after the humiliating loss to Alabama in week one. Clemson took care of The Citadel last week and now get a conference opponent at home. For some reason, James Davis and C.J. Spiller have only carried the ball a combined 27 times this season. They should average that per game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Clemson 27, N.C. State 14

SMU at #15 Texas Tech
(Saturday, 6 pm, FSN-Southwest)
If there’s one game this weekend you couldn’t pay me to watch, this would be it. These two offenses will make a mockery of the game of football, and both coaches will leave their defenses in bad positions in favor of their pet offenses at least a couple times (see Mike Leach going for it on 4th down twice last week inside his own 30!). Normally I would say the scoring could reach triple digits, but the Tech offense has been stuck in neutral so far this year.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas Tech 52, SMU 27

#16 Oregon at Purdue
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN)
Could this be the road trip that finally trips up Justin Roper? Roper has been playing lights out in place of the injured Nate Costa, who is out for the season. Curtis Painter and the Purdue offense look good on paper, but going up against one of the best defensive backfields in the nation will be a significant challenge. Oregon’s secondary will get the best of this matchup and that leaves Purdue with few other options. Jeremiah Johnson should be healthy and ready to run wild on the porous Purdue defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oregon 34, Purdue 20

#19 Kansas at #17 South Florida
(Friday, 7 pm, ESPN 2)
This is a matchup that should produce a great game. Kansas QB Todd Reesing is firing on all cylinders this year, especially with speedy freshman WR Daymond Patterson added in the mix. On the flip side, South Florida is coming off an overtime tussle with don’t-call-them-rivals Central Florida. The Kansas defense is solid and will be able to force Matt Grothe into a couple turnovers, but USF will be able to pressure Reesing and get him out of his rhythm. It will be a tight game throughout controlled by the defenses, so I’ll give a slight edge to the home team.
J.Pike’s Pick: South Florida 22, Kansas 20

#18 Utah at Utah State
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN360.com)
These two in-state rivals play every year, but it’s usually big brother Utah beating up on little brother Utah State. Expect more of the same this year with Utah QB Brian Johnson padding stats in his quest to win the Faulk Trophy.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 42, Utah State 10

#20 East Carolina at Tulane
(Saturday, 2 pm)
East Carolina has been the story of the year so far, upsetting Virginia Tech and West Virginia in their first two outings. The defense has been a big reason for the success and Tulane has struggled to score points this season. That doesn’t bode well for the Green Wave. However with ECU riding high off their 2-0 start, don’t be surprised if they let the headlines go to their heads early and get off to a slow start against a Tulane team that nobody is giving a chance. Remember, Tulane held Alabama to a mere 172 yards of total offense last week. Pirate QB Patrick Pinkney is too good to let his team sleep for too long though and he’ll lead the offense to just enough points to win comfortably.
J.Pike’s Pick: East Carolina 23, Tulane 10

Louisiana-Lafayette at #21 Illinois
(Saturday, 11 am, Big Ten Network)
Here’s another cupcake for the Illinois offense to run up and down the field against. The Ragin’ Cajuns could come in handy though because the Illini defense has been miserable so far this season. Louisiana-Lafayette QB Michael Desormeaux and RB Tyrell Fenroy both ran for over 1,000 yards last season so there should be plenty of opportunities for Illinois to practice their tackling.
J.Pike’s Pick: Illinois 48, Louisiana-Lafayette 20

#22 UCLA at #25 BYU
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, Versus)
The Cougars need to step up their play on the defensive side of the ball if they are to win this game. UCLA’s defense is excellent and they will make it very difficult on Max Hall, who isn’t the best under pressure. Defensive tackles Brian Price and Brigham Harwell will make sure that’s the case Saturday afternoon. It will be up to Kevin Craft, who must get off to a better start than he did against Tennessee when he threw 4 interceptions in the first half.
J.Pike’s Pick: UCLA 26, BYU 21

UAB at #23 Tennessee
(Saturday, 11:30 am, ESPN360.com)
After pondering their overtime loss to UCLA for almost two weeks, it’s time for Tennessee to take the field again. Facing one of the worst defenses in the nation – UAB allows a whopping 47 points per game - should help the potentially explosive Tennessee offense find a rhythm after struggling against UCLA.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tennessee 51, UAB 17

#24 California at Maryland
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
It’s a tale of two offenses. The Cal offense has exploded thanks to the speedy Jahvid Best and the running game. In two games Best has 311 yards rushing and 4 tds, and the Bears are averaging 297 yards rushing as a team! Maryland on the other hand is averaging a putrid 14 points per game and is coming off an embarrassing loss at the hands of Middle Tennessee State. I’m a little concerned about the long road trip and early start time, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Maryland’s defense forces a couple three-and-outs early. The speed of Cal wins out in the end though.
J.Pike’s Pick: California 30, Maryland 16

News & Notes

* Wyoming head coach Joe Glenn named JC transfer Dax Crum the starting quarterback. That leaves Karsten Sween, who started for the Cowboys the past two seasons, relegated to backup duty. Which begs the question: what the hell kind of name is “Dax Crum”?

* USC’s Matt Sanchez and Joe McKnight each suffered minor injuries in practice. Both are expected to be fine for the regular season, but this offense has been slipping recently, and these are two first time starters who could use the repetitions to gel with the rest of the offense.

An interesting side note to the Sanchez injury – redshirt freshman Aaron Corp is taking the snaps with the first team offense in his place instead of the highly touted Mitch Mustain. I’m guessing Pete Carroll is going to receive an angry call from Momma Mustain soon.

* Virginia Tech lost another wide receiver when Frank Beamer suspended Zach Luckett from the team indefinitely. The Hokies top four receivers from last season all graduated and the top three heading into ‘08 have all been lost due to injury or suspension. Now Poly must rely on true freshmen to get the job done. Tyrod Taylor better be ready to take over the QB job full time because he’s the only playmaker left on this depleted offense.

* Colorado named Demetrius Sumler the starting running back ahead of stud true freshman Darrell Scott. Sumler is a fine player, so all this means is the Buffs will have excellent depth in the running game.

* Tennessee tight end Brandon Warren has been cleared to play this season after transferring from Florida State. Two years ago Warren was one of the most impressive freshmen in the country, and he’ll make an immediate impact at Tennessee.

This news couldn’t come at a better time for the Vols either. After losing tight ends Chris Brown and Brad Cottam to the NFL draft, projected starter Jeff Cottam injured his knee in practice and will be miss the first half of the season.

* Purdue running back Jaycen Taylor tore up his knee and will miss the 2008 season. Kory Sheets will take over full time, but he doesn’t have quite the same ability Taylor does.

* SMU senior quarterback Justin Willis has been demoted to third string on new head coach June Jones’ depth chart behind somebody called Bo Levi Mitchell. Willis has started for the Mustangs the past three years so the move comes as a surprise.

* As expected, UCLA has named Kevin Craft the starting quarterback. Craft, a transfer from San Diego State, got the nod in large part because Ben Olson and Patrick Cowan are the two most injury-prone players to ever play major college football. But Craft can play a little bit too, so expect him to have a fine season playing for Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow.

* Ralph Friedgen has changed his starting quarterback again. Chris Turner, who played well in spots last season, has been replaced in the lineup by injury-plagued Jordan Steffy. Josh Portis, a transfer from Florida, is expected to see action as well. Friedgen said Portis has as much athleticism as any player he’s ever coached, so expect him to contribute a highlight reel play at some point this year.

* In another quarterback competition that went as expected, Cal has named Kevin Riley the starter over Nate Longshore. Long”spare” has been playing mediocre football for far too long, and Riley proved in the Bears’ bowl win over Air Force that he has what it takes to succeed in Jeff Tedford’s offense.

* Oregon quarterback Nate Costa suffered an injury to the same knee that caused him to miss all of last season. As of now the severity of the injury is unknown, but I have a hunch that Justin Roper is warming up in the bullpen already. Get your panic buttons ready Duck fans.

* Miami has suspended projected starting quarterback Robert Marve for the season opener against Charleston Southern. That means true freshman Jacory Harris will have the first shot at filling the ballerina slippers of Kirby Freeman and Kyle Wright.

* Gene Chizik has chosen a winner in the heated quarterback competition at Iowa State. Austen Arnaud will get first crack at the job. Phillip Bates will see the field though - he played wide receiver last season and has too much athleticism to keep on the sidelines.

* N.C. State redshirt freshman Russell Wilson was tabbed by head coach Tom O’Brien as the starter for the Thursday night opener against South Carolina. Wilson beat out incumbent Daniel Evans, Nebraska transfer Harrison Beck, and Justin Burke, who is transfering to Louisville.

* Notre Dame tight end Mike Ragone tore up his knee and will sit out the season. The Domers were already thin at tight end, so it will be up to incoming freshmen to handle an important position in Charlie Weis’ offense.

Dude, Just Give It Up

Newsflash!
UCLA quarterback Ben Olson injured his foot! This may sound familiar because it has happened before. Olson hurt his foot the same way he hurt it back in the spring by - get this - taking the snap and dropping back in the pocket. You know, something most other quarterbacks can manage without breaking a foot. Olson has spent more time on crutches in his career than in shoulder pads, and this might be the last straw. He'll be out for about two months which leaves Kevin Craft as the potential starter for the Bruins.

Top Coaching Hires

1. Bo Pelini, Nebraska

Everything coming out of Lincoln indicates this could be the type of hire that defines an era of a program. The sting of the Bill Callahan experiment/fiasco/disaster might have a little something to do with that, but at least Pelini has injected life back into a once proud program. The excitement has returned because Bo Pelini has a defensive pedigree that leads me to believe the “Blackshirt” tradition will be restored as early as August 31, 2008. Plus he’s got a fancy new National Championship ring, and I guarantee you he wants another one as soon as he can get a shot at it.

2. Houston Nutt, Ole Miss

It’s still weird to me how much Arkansas fans despised Houston Nutt. He did nothing but win in Fayetteville, which is tough to do in the SEC as consistently as he did. Now he takes over a decently stocked Ole Miss squad ready to get some competent coaching again. Ed Orgeron may not have had a clue how to get a football into the end zone, but he could recruit. Nutt left a bad situation and walked into a good situation where he can essentially pick up right where he left off. And do you think he’ll have a hard time recruiting running backs any time soon?

3. Mike Sherman, Texas A&M

This was a very quiet, calculated hire that is flying under a lot of radars. After making a big splash the last time around with Dennis Franchione, it might be exactly what the Aggies need. Sherman will bring fundamentally sound, smashmouth football back to College Station – and not “smashmouth” in the form of a 280-pound offensive guard playing running back. Sherman’s specialty is the offensive line, which is a great place to start in terms of building a program. With a little luck, he might be able to coach the Aggies back into the thick of the Big XII South discussion, which will get them back into the recruiting battles they’ve been missing out on in the state of Texas the last several years.

4. Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech

Paul Johnson won me over when I saw him win a Division 1-AA national title with Georgia Southern. He featured a ridiculously sound option attack that I have always been a sucker for. Then he got a shot at Navy, which at the time of his hire was considered to be a sinking ship (so to speak) in the modern college football world where recruiting speed is all that matters. Not only did he win at Navy, he did it by playing “old fashioned” football. He enters the ACC now where he’ll actually be able to recruit D-1A talent to run his schemes. You can bet on Georgia Tech being fundamentally sound and being one of the best rushing attacks in the nation when he finally gets all his players in place. That might just be enough to take over the ACC during it’s down years.

5. Rick Neuheisel, UCLA

Skippy gets this spot based more on his assistant coach hires than on his own merits. Now don’t get me wrong, I like the guy. He brings enthusiasm everywhere he goes, and he’s won too. But he’s also left two programs in bad shape and his act might be growing a little tired. Hiring Norm Chow to coach the offense was one of the smartest moves he could make. Chow brings instant credibility to the staff, as well as the ability to coach quarterbacks – that is, if there’s still a healthy quarterback on the roster. Neuheisel knows a thing or two about grooming quarterbacks as well. However, deciding to retain defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker (and then talking him into staying) might turn out to be his best move. Over the past couple seasons, Walker has quietly turned UCLA into one of the premier defenses in the west. Granted, that’s not saying a whole lot in the defensively-challenged Pac-10, but it’s still an accomplishment. Neuhesel has set himself up nicely to accomplish his goal of competing with crosstown rival USC.

6. Kevin Sumlin, Houston

This is a strong hire that will keep the momentum going in Houston.

7. Rich Rodriguez, Michigan

There will be several bumps in the road to installing his spread offense at Michigan, but they’ll be more competitive against Ohio State.

8. Bill Stewart, West Virginia

Stewart gives the program stability while it positions itself for a rare run for the national title. He also brings Jeff Mullen over from Wake Forest to run the offense.

9. tie - Steve Fairchild, Colorado State; Larry Fedora, Southern Miss

Both of these non-BCS schools have tradition, and both made solid selections to replace long-time, successful coaches.

10. tie - David Cutcliffe, Duke; Art Briles, Baylor

These are two bright offensive minds, but will it really matter? These are programs where coaching careers have gone to die lately.