WEEK THIRTEEN - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

#11 Boise State at Nevada

(Saturday, 3 pm)
This should be a great game out in the WAC. Nevada is on the rise thanks to the play of quarterback Collin Kaepernick, but Boise's unsung defense will be the difference.
J.Pike's Pick: Boise State 27, Nevada 23

#12 Oklahoma State is IDLE

#14 Missouri is IDLE

#15 Pittsburgh at #19 Cincinnati
(Saturday, 6:15 pm, ESPN 2)
Let's see, we've got a wildly inconsistent Pittsburgh team with a wildly inconsistent LeSean McCoy at running back going up against Tony Pike and and the surging Cincinnati Bearcats. The Big East title will probably go to the winner, so look for Tony Pike to make another Heisman statement with a huge game.
J.Pike's Pick: Cincinnati 24, Pittsburgh 20

Air Force at #16 TCU
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, Versus)
This is a full blown upset alert here. With all the talk about Gary Patterson leaving TCU to coach somewhere else, will the TCU players be fired up to play this game? I have my doubts. What I don't doubt is the Air Force Academy's ability to keep this game close and turn an Andy Dalton mistake into the game winning points down the stretch.
J.Pike's Pick: Air Force 19, TCU 16

#17 Oregon State at Arizona
(Saturday, 6 pm, Versus)
Oregon State is flying under the radar right now, but they actually control their own destiny in the Pac-10. Win out, and the Beavers will get the nod for a BCS game ahead of USC. Winning in the desert isn't as difficult as it once was, and I think the speed of the Rodgers' brothers will be too much for Arizona to match. Get ready to land back on that hot seat, Mikey.
J.Pike's Pike: Oregon State 31, Arizona 20

N.C. State at #18 North Carolina
(Saturday, 11 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
N.C. State quarterback Russell Wilson has a bright future leading the Wolfpack. But in 2008 the Tar Heels are still the better team.
J.Pike's Pick: North Carolina 24, N.C. State 14

Ole Miss at #21 LSU
(Saturday, 2:0 pm, CBS)
After last week's gut check against Troy, LSU might be ready to finally grow up as a team this season. Houston Nutt has had an immediate impact on Ole Miss, turning them into a pesky up-and-comer in the SEC. The quarterback play in this game will be anything but stellar, so it will probably come down to who can control the line of scrimmage. LSU has the advantage there.
J.Pike's Pick: LSU 27, Ole Miss 20

#22 Boston College at Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
I'm glad people are finally starting to see Riley Skinner for what he is: an average quarterback with a flimsy arm. The Demon Deacons are trailing off just as I expected this season because they lost too many key weapons. Conversely, Boston College is proving they still have life after Matt Ryan. Mark Herzlich is a big part of the Eagles' success. The linebacker is fantastic in coverage, and he's even a menace on special teams.
J.Pike's Pick: Boston College 21, Wake Forest 6

Florida State at #25 Maryland
(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)
Keep me away from the ACC. These games tend to go exactly the opposite of what I expect. Since I'm expecting Maryland to continue their dominance at home this season, and quarterback Chris Turner to continue playing his best against top opponents, I'll go with the Seminoles. As a side note, starting FSU safety Myron Rolle will miss most of this game because he is interviewing to become a Rhodes Scholar. Impressive.
J.Pike's Pick: Florida State 23, Maryland 17

WEEK TWELVE - Top 25 Preview (Part II: Top 10)

#1 Texas Tech is IDLE

Mississippi State @ #2 Alabama
(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)
This game comes down to whether or not Alabama shows up. The fact that the Crimson Tide have lost two in a row to the Croomdawgs means Nick Saban didn’t have to work too hard to get his team’s attention. It will probably still be a hard fought, low scoring game, but I don’t expect Bama to have too much trouble dismissing Mississippi State.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 22, Mississippi State 10

#3 Texas @ Kansas
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
Simply put, this isn’t the same Kansas team that won a BCS bowl game last year. The Jayhawks definitely miss defensive coordinator Bill Young, who took over the DC job at Miami in the offseason. Kansas is giving up a Big XII worst 276.3 passing yards per game, which means Texas quarterback Colt McCoy should be in for yet another big day. The Longhorns will put this one away early and erase all the recent memories of photo finishes in Lawrence.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 42, Kansas 24

South Carolina @ #4 Florida
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
I’ll be honest with you, I have no idea what to expect from this Florida team on a week to week basis. Urban Meyer’s squad has as much athleticism as any team in the nation, but they seem to rely on their speed more than on Xs and Os. That leaves the door open for any opponent they face to sneak out of town with a win (see Ole Miss earlier this season). South Carolina brings a solid defense to The Swamp, highlighted by speedy defensive end Eric Norwood and tackling machine Emanuel Cook (if Cook ever misses a tackle, let me know). But the Gamecock offense is anything but consistent. Steve Spurrier keeps going back and forth between freshman Stephen Garcia and error prone (but eligible) Chris Smelley, and that leads to drastic ebbs in the cohesiveness of the offense. I would say Garcia should be the guy, but I have a feeling Smelley might come up big in this game. South Carolina will keep it close, but I’ll give Florida the nod.
J.Pike’s Pick: Florida 24, South Carolina 18

Indiana @ #5 Penn State
(Saturday, 11 am, Big Ten Network)
After getting knocked out of the national title picture with a loss to Iowa last week, you might think the Nittany Lions would pack it in for the season. But the senior leadership on this team won’t let that happen. Quarterback Darryl Clark has been inconsistent of late, but facing the Big Ten’s worst pass defense should allow him and his three senior receivers to get back on track.
J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 37, Indiana 13

#6 Utah @ San Diego State
(Saturday, 7 pm, The Mtn.)
The clutch comeback win at home over TCU last Thursday night was huge. Now the Utes get to stretch their legs a little bit and get some backups some valuable game experience because San Diego State doesn’t have a chance to compete in this one. Utah was held to 13 points against the stingy Frog defense, but Brian Johnson and company should have no problem putting points on an Aztec defense that has given up at least 35 points in each of the last six games.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 44, San Diego State 7

#7 Oklahoma is IDLE

#8 USC @ Stanford
(Saturday, 6 pm, Versus)
I’ve been calling for it for weeks, so here it is: Stanford will upset USC. Again. I know nobody has forgotten about last season when Jim Harbaugh’s troops marched into the Coleseum and emerged victorious, despite being 42 point underdogs. How did they do it? They played scrappy defense, collecting four sacks and forcing five turnovers. Well, fast forward a year and Stanford is now leading the Pac-10 in sacks. They’ll get to Mark Sanchez and force him to make decisions on the run, which means USC will struggle to score. That opens the door for the surprisingly physical Stanford offense to ride Toby Gerhart and the Pac-10’s second ranked rushing attack to victory. USC has been playing outstanding defense of late, but they haven’t really faced a real challenge during that stretch. Oregon State proved that if you aren’t scared of USC, and you come out and punch them in the mouth, the Trojans will back down. Because there’s no use risking an NFL career for a meaningless college game …
J.Pike’s Pick: Stanford 20, USC 18

#9 Georgia @ Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
My, how the mighty have fallen. Before the season started I circled this game as one of the top five games to watch this year. Auburn was a preseason top 10 team and Georgia started the year at the very top of the polls. Now Georgia is struggling to maintain legitimacy at 8-2 while Auburn wallows in the pit of the SEC at 5-5. This game could be ugly. Auburn is only averaging 13.3 points per game in SEC play, but they can play a little defense when their hearts are in it. Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno’s heart is always in it, and I expect him to carry the Bulldogs this afternoon.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, Auburn 12

#10 Boise State @ Idaho
(Saturday, 4 pm)
It’s a Potato State showdown! Is Boise State ever going to play anybody again? Idaho is one of the worst teams in Division 1A, and there will probably be more Boise fans at the game than Vandals. Boise makes French fries out of Idaho and rolls to 10-0.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 38, Idaho 6

Upeset Alert - Mountain West Edition

The Mountain West Conference has three teams ranked in the J&BP Top 25. This Saturday all three of those teams go on the road to face tough competition, so I’m putting the entire conference on Upset Alert. I predict at least one of the top three (Utah, TCU, BYU) will lose. Here’s a quick preview of the games in order of the likelihood of upset. By the way, if anybody knows what channel “The Mtn.” is, please let me know because for the first time ever I want to tune in to their network.

Utah (8-0) @ New Mexico (4-5)
(Saturday, 8:30 pm, The Mtn.)
Don’t ever count out Rocky Long’s troops. When quarterback Donovan Porterie went down for the season with an injury, the Lobos simply rallied around their potent running game. They are hanging around .500 thanks to the running of Rodney Ferguson. The senior tailback has paced the nation’s 13th ranked rushing attack with 865 yards and 11 touchdowns. Ferguson has his work cut out for him this week because the Utah front seven is one of the best in the Mountain West. Thanks to stars like Paul Kruger, Koa Misi, and Stevenson Sylvester, the Utes have limited opponents to 85.9 rushing yards per game this season (9th nationally). Can they hold up against Ferguson and company? One reason Utah is confident heading into this game is because of the play of their quarterback, Brian Johnson. Johnson has posted solid numbers and displayed impressive leadership skills in leading the Utes to their 8-0 mark. He has been the leading candidate for the Faulk Trophy for the entire season, and I expect him to play like he deserves the award Saturday. The Achilles heel for Utah all season has been their penchant for shooting themselves in the foot. Untimely penalties and turnovers have cropped up, but haven’t yet gotten the best of the Utes. New Mexico is a solid fundamental team that will be able to take advantage of these mistakes. That will get the momentum of the crowd going and give the Lobos an excellent shot at the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah 23

BYU (7-1) @ Colorado State (4-4)
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
Colorado State is looking for their first big win under new head coach Steve Fairchild and a home game against BYU would be the perfect opportunity to get it. If a winless Washington team can come within a blown extra point of taking BYU to overtime, why can’t the Rams do it too? Fairchild is striving for balance offensively with wide receiver Rashaun Greer and running back Gartrell Johnson, but the offensive line isn’t good enough yet for either phase to thrive. Facing an ever-improving BYU front seven that includes standouts David Nixon, Matt Bauman, and Jan Jorgensen doesn’t bode well for that unit. On the other side of the ball, BYU can score points, but they aren’t unstoppable. If you can pressure Max Hall you can knock him out of his rhythm. The problem is that Colorado State is last in the Mountain West with only 6 sacks this season. On emotion alone, the Rams will make this one a game in the second half, but in the end it will be difficult to make clutch stops against the potent BYU offense.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 34, Colorado State 24

TCU (8-1) @ UNLV (3-5)
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
When UNLV knocked off Arizona State earlier this season, it looked like the Rebels were finally going to turn the corner under coach Mike Sanford. Now that we are a little deeper into the season it looks like a win over ASU isn’t quite as impressive as it seemed at the time. But with quarterback Omar Clayton the Rebels will always have a chance to win. The problem is he will have to do it against one of the best defenses in the nation. TCU is in the top two nationally in each of the following categories: scoring defense (10.4 points per game), rushing defense (30.2 yards per game), total defense (218.9 yards per game), sacks (35), and turnover margin (+14). On top of all that, TCU has yet to allow a single point in the fourth quarter this season. So Omar Clayton had better watch his back because Jerry Hughes (12 sacks) and Jason Phillips will be coming after him on Saturday. For UNLV to pull the upset, they’ll need to play their best game and hope for one of those annual TCU choke jobs that tend to trip up the Horned Frogs just when they are gaining some national attention.
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 33, UNLV 16

WEEK SIX - Preview

UPSET WARNINGS

Stanford @ Notre Dame
Why it could happen: Notre Dame isn’t “back” yet. A win over Purdue only proves that Purdue still isn’t capable of playing up to their potential on a weekly basis. Stanford is the kind of team that can take advantage of Notre Dame’s mistakes.
Why it won’t happen: Notre Dame is too talented for Stanford. If the offensive line can play even average, that will give The Ostrich enough time to take advantage of a young, improving receiving corps.
J.Pike’s Pick: Notre Dame 28, Stanford 27

#15 Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Why it could happen: Kansas State seems to get up for one or two big games every year and Texas Tech is one of the most vulnerable teams in the top 20.
Why it won’t happen: Even though Mike Leach isn’t smart enough to take advantage of Kansas State’s obvious weakness against the run, they’ll still be able to take advantage of K-State’s poor tackling.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas Tech 51, Kansas State 37

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma State
Why it could happen: Oklahoma State is riding high off their press clippings and AP top 25 recognition, but Texas A&M will actually have the two best skill players on the field (RB Mike Goodson and QB Jerrod Johnson).
Why it won’t happen: The Aggies are still sorely lacking in talent and depth along both lines of scrimmage. Zac Robinson and the Cowboy offense shouldn’t have much trouble breaking 30 points against the porous A&M defense. But this one will be much more difficult than the 24 point spread would indicate.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma State 34, Texas A&M 28

UPSET CALLS

Arizona State @ #21 California
Why it will happen: Cal’s best player, Jahvid Best, is out for the game. Meanwhile Arizona State gets Keegan Herring back in the lineup. Rudy Carpenter and the gang are hungry to prove their disappointing 2-2 start was a mirage so they’ll put together their first complete game of the season and knock Cal back out of the top 25.
J.Pike’s Pick: Arizona State 30, California 24

Ball State @ Toledo
Why it will happen: The Glass Bowl isn’t an inviting place for opponents to play, especially when you will be without the services of Dante Love. Toledo has played pretty good football against decent competition so far this year, and it will finally pay off in the win column when they knock Ball State from the rank of the undefeateds.
J.Pike’s Pick: Toledo 36, Ball State 31


Iowa (+9½) over Michigan State
Last week I called the Northwestern “upset” of Iowa. But this week 9½ points is just too much. In fact, Iowa might even be able to pull off the upset here if they can manage to slow down Javon Ringer.

Illinois (+2) over Michigan
Michigan got lucky last week when their best half of football for the season coincided with Wisconsin’s worst half of football. They won’t be so lucky this weekend. Illinois is only 2-2, but their losses were at the hands of two of the top four teams in the nation (Penn State and Mizzou). They have a decided edge in speed in this game and they’ll use it to their full advantage to get their season rolling again.

Texas A&M (+24½) over Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State always seems to start out slow in conference play. It might have something to do with their weak non-conference scheduling, but that’s another topic. A&M has some weapons, but their weaknesses lie in the trenches and on defense. Those just happen to be two areas Oklahoma State doesn’t care much about. And honestly, I’d take Jerrod Johnson and Mike Goodson over any two players the Pokes could offer. The Aggies have won each of the last two meetings by exactly one point, so don’t be surprised if they do it again.

Florida International (-7) over North Texas High
You can’t go wrong betting against the Generous Green this year. FIU is coming off a big 35-16 win over Toledo and North Texas High lost to Rice by 57 points a week ago. It’s a no brainer!

Ohio State (-2) over Wisconsin
I’m starting to feel good about Ohio State again. After promoting freshman stud Terrelle Pryor to starting quarterback, the Buckeyes seem to be back on the right track. Even in Camp Randle, I don’t see the Buckeyes stumbling in anticipation of their big showdown against Penn State on October 25th.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Penn State (-12½) over Purdue
Duke (+14) over Georgia Tech
N.C. State (+8½) over Boston College
Florida (-24½) over Arkansas
Western Michigan (-4½) over Ohio
Arizona State (+9) over California
Miami (-2½) over Florida State

WEEK FIVE - Preview

UPSET WATCH

Maryland @ #16 Clemson
Why it could happen: Clemson isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. For all their talent, they haven’t managed to put together a complete game yet this year. Maryland on the other hand seems to be hitting their stride since Chris Turner took over at quarterback.
Why it won’t happen: Clemson’s defense won’t allow Turner to make the same plays he made against Cal. James Davis and the running game put up 249 rushing yards against the Terps last year, and I expect them to approach that again this weekend. But it won’t be easy.
J.Pike’s Pick: Clemson 26, Maryland 18

Marshall @ West Virginia
Why it could happen: Marshall was up on West Virginia at halftime in last season’s matchup, and Mark Snyder finally has the Herd back on the winning track in 2008.
Why it won’t happen: West Virginia has struggled to find an identity early on, but they at least got back to the running game last week against Colorado. Pat White and Noel Devine have too much speed for the Marshall defense and they’ll find their way to the end zone more times than the Herd offense will.
J.Pike’s Pick: West Virginia 32, Marshall 27

UPSET WARNING

Northwestern @ Iowa
Why it will happen: Northwestern is better than anybody is giving them credit for so far. They play solid defense and have two playmakers on offense (QB C.J. Bacher & RB Tyrell Sutton) that Iowa can’t match. Northwestern can flat out manufacture more points than Iowa. Bacher will have a big day.
J.Pike’s Pick: Northwestern 27, Iowa 17

Colorado vs Florida State
(@ Jacksonville, FL)
Why it will happen: Florida State is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation right now. The play they have gotten from their quarterbacks the past 7+ years has been atrocious, and it has led to the deterioration of the offense to the point it’s at now. The Noles still like to talk trash and attempt to intimidate their opponents before the game (see photo evidence from last week's loss to Wake Forest), but that doesn’t work as well when you’re a .500 team. In fact it just makes you look like a bunch of morons. Colorado running back Rod Stewart will send Florida State away on a Downtown Train with a 2-2 record.
J.Pike’s Pick: Colorado 21, Florida State 13

Northwestern (+8) over Iowa
There’s no way Iowa is 8 points better than Northwestern because I think Northwestern is better than Iowa straight up.

Ole Miss (+23) over Florida
Florida isn’t clicking offensively yet this year and Urban Meyer is too busy complaining about the new clock rules to fix it. Last year it was his running backs’ fault the Gators couldn’t run the ball. You might want to take a look in the mirror sometime, Urb? Houston Nutt will have Ole Miss ready to play and they’ll make it a game into the fourth quarter.

Cincinnati (-10) over Akron
Now that Tony Pike has proven himself at quarterback, I expect Cincinnati to continue putting up 40 point games against inferior opponents such as Akron. Cincy wins big as Pike continues his late bid for the Heisman Trophy.

Rice (-18½) over North Texas High
Rice quarterback Chase Clement is actually pretty good. Facing one of the best high school teams in the state of Texas might be imposing for Hurst L.D. Bell, but Clement will have no problems. Rice will roll to a four touchdown win. At least North Texas High can get back to concentrating on winning their district and making State after this beat down.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Duke (-7) over Virginia
Arkansas (+27½) over Texas
Colorado (+6) over Florida State
Purdue (+2½) over Notre Dame
Marshall (+15½) over West Virginia
Navy (+16) over Wake Forest
Oregon (-19½) over Washington State

Week Four Preview

UPSET WATCH

Central Florida @ Boston College
Why it could happen: The Boston College offense isn’t very good. Central Florida played a whale of a game against rival South Florida and proved that they could play a little defense.
Why it won’t happen: Central Florida’s offense isn’t very good either. Michael Greco is a better quarterback than Chris Crane, but BC’s defense is good enough to shut down the Golden Knight offense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boston College 17, Central Florida 13

Boise State @ #14 Oregon
Why it could happen: Oregon is down to their third quarterback this season. Projected starter Nate Costa blew out his knee in fall camp, and actual starter Justin Roper injured his knee last week against Purdue. Boise State on the other hand still has RB Ian Johnson to carry the load.
Why it won’t happen: The Oregon secondary will force Boise State’s freshman quarterback Kellen Moore into a couple key turnovers, and Oregon’s two-headed rushing attack, which will get a lot of work thanks to the quarterback issues, will wear down the smallish Boise defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oregon 28, Boise State 17

Troy @ #8 Ohio State
Why it could happen: If Ohio State doesn’t recover mentally from their beat-down against USC, Troy has just the team to pull the upset. The Trojans play a fast paced spread offense that has enough speed to give the Buckeyes trouble.
Why it won’t happen: Even if the Buckeyes are pouting, they still have too much talent to lose this game. Jim Tressel is a smart coach that gets his team to beat the teams they should beat no matter what. It will be way closer than any Ohio State fan wants, but they just need a win to get back on the right track.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ohio State 26, Troy 22

UPSET WARNING

#18 East Carolina @ N.C. State
Why it will happen: Tom O’Brien knows a thing or two about football in the trenches and he’ll neutralize ECU’s apparent advantage in that area. The line play will allow quarterback Russell Wilson enough time and space to guide a steady offense, control the clock, and pull off the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: N.C. State 24, East Carolina 20

Week Three Preview

UPSET WATCH

#1 Georgia @ South Carolina
Why it could happen: Because it happened last year. South Carolina’s defense was able to keep Georgia out of the end zone, and they are loaded on that side of the ball this year.
Why it won’t happen: Georgia is a much better team now than the one that lost to USC a year ago. Even though there are mostly the same faces, this team grew up after that loss, and Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford are now two of the best in the country.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, South Carolina 13

Iowa State @ Iowa
Why it could happen: It’s a rivalry game and anything can happen. On top of that, Iowa State is a team on the rise. Gene Chizik has the offense headed in the right direction and freshman quarterback Austin Arnaud is more than capable of leading an upset victory.
Why it won’t happen: The Iowa defense isn’t as good as their stats so far this year, but they’re good enough. The Hawkeyes seem to be playing better as a team this year, and their offensive line finally seems up to Kirk Ferentz standards. That will give Iowa the ability to control the ball and the clock, which will ultimately be the key to victory.
J.Pike’s Pick: Iowa 27, Iowa State 24

UPSET WARNING

#9 Auburn @ Mississippi State
Why it will happen: Mississippi State will keep the turnovers to a minimum and play outstanding defense. The new Auburn offense will learn a lesson about abandoning physical football. Good luck with that sideways running game against the speedy Bulldogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Mississippi State 15, Auburn 12

Stanford @ TCU
Why it will happen: TCU is always sketchy when they are supposed to be good. Stanford on the other hand has been playing over their heads ever since Jim Harbaugh took the job. Running back Toby Gerhart will prove you can run the ball against the usually stout TCU defense and Stanford will out-heart the Horned Frogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Stanford, 27, TCU 24

WEEK TWO - Preview

Southern Miss @ #9 Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30am, ESPN360.com)
Why it could happen: Auburn didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard last weekend against Louisiana-Monroe. In fact the defense and special teams scored almost as many points as the offense did. Auburn is still trying to figure out their quarterback situation, but Southern Miss has a potent offense that amassed 633 yards and 51 points last week.
Why it won’t happen: The Auburn defense is significantly than the Ragin’ Cajuns defense. USM will score, but it will be much tougher going against Tuberville’s unit. Ben Tate should also have plenty of room to run the ball against the Golden Eagle defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Auburn 26, Southern Miss 16

#25 BYU @ Washington
(Saturday, 2pm, FSN)
Why it could happen: Husky Stadium isn’t an easy place to play. BYU has high expectations this season and are favored in this game. Even though Washington doesn’t look very good this year, this looks like a classic “trap” game.
Why it won’t happen: Jake Locker doesn’t have a good enough arm to keep Washington from being one dimensional on offense. BYU is good enough defensively to slow down Washington, and good enough offensively to score points in a difficult environment.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 33, Washington 20

#10 West Virginia @ East Carolina
(Saturday, 3:30pm, ESPN)
Why it could happen: East Carolina did it to Virginia Tech last week. Patrick Pinkney played a very good game against a Hokie defense that is far superior to what West Virginia is going to field. East Carolina has a solid defense too, and West Virginia didn’t show off the same potent running game they had last year, running for “only” 149 yards last week.
Why it won’t happen: Pat White will find a way to win. Even though they didn’t run the ball as well last week, White threw a career high 5 touchdown passes.
J.Pike’s Pick: West Virginia 27, East Carolina 20

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh
(Saturday, 5pm, ESPN360.com)
Why it could happen: Pitt was upset by Bowling Green last week, and Buffalo might be an even tougher opponent. Turner Gill’s Bulls routed UTEP last week to the tune of 42-17.
Why it won’t happen: Pitt has to circle the wagons and get a win for coach Dave Wannstedt here … don’t they?
J.Pike’s Pick: Pittsburgh 24, Buffalo 22

Ole Miss @ Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Houston Nutt has the Rebels on the upswing while Wake and the ACC appear to be declining. Wake looked good against Baylor, but this isn’t Baylor. Look for the Ole Miss defense to contain the Demon Deacon running game and force Riley Skinner to beat them. Dexter McCluster will rack up some big plays for the Rebel offense and ice this game late.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ole Miss 27, Wake Forest 24


Alright, so I lied. After picking only four games against the spread last week (and going 2-2), I see even more games I want to pick against the spread this week. We'll see how this goes.

Southern Miss (+17½) over Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30am, ESPN360.com)
Auburn’s offense isn’t quite up to speed yet and won’t break the 30 point mark. The defense is really good but new head coach Larry Fedora has the Southern Miss offense humming already, and they’ll score enough to keep it close.

Ole Miss (+8) over Wake Forest
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Congratulations Demon Deacons - you smacked around Baylor. Houston Nutt comes to town with a vastly improved Ole Miss squad that plays enough defense to possibly pull off the upset.

California (-13½) over Washington State
(Saturday, 5:30pm, FCS-Pacific)
Washington State simply doesn’t have enough players to compete this season. Cal on the other hand seems to have new life on offense thanks to the move from Nate Longspare to Kevin Riley at quarterback. Cal wins big.

Tulsa (-21½) over North Texas
(Saturday, 6pm)
Tulsa has one of the best offenses in the nation. Head coach Todd Graham has scored points everywhere he’s been, and North Texas coach Todd Dodge is in over his head here. Tulsa might go for 60 points in this one.

Western Michigan (-6) over Northern Illinois
(Saturday, 6pm)
Western Michigan tested their mettle in Lincoln last week and came out looking like they might be able to do some damage in the MAC. Northern Illinois on the other hand blew it against a Minnesota team that is one of the worst in the nation. Western wins handily at home.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Oklahoma (-21½) over Cincinnati
Air Force (+3) over Wyoming
Buffalo (+13) over Pittsburgh
South Florida (-14) over Central Florida
Iowa State (-7) over Kent State
Miami (+21½) over Florida
Arizona State (-14) over Stanford

WEEK ONE - Preview

UPSET WATCH

Wake Forest @ Baylor
(Thursday, 7pm, FSN)
Why it could happen: Wake Forest is getting fat from all the preseason hype and is slightly overrated. Baylor head coach Art Briles will have his team fired up and ready to play the best game fans in Waco have seen in several years.
Why it won’t happen: Wake isn’t that overrated. Baylor will hang in there for a while on the high of the new coaching staff and their home crowd, but the Demon Deacon defense will come up with key stops down the stretch.

Virginia Tech vs East Carolina
(Saturday, 11am, ESPN)
Why it could happen: East Carolina returns quarterback Patrick Pinkney and a large portion of their defense. Virginia Tech on the other hand loses just about every key playmaker off last year’s team that was pushed to the limit by this same Pirate team.
Why it won’t happen: Virginia Tech still has too much overall talent to lose this game. It will be close throughout and the Hokies will need some offensive skill players to step up and make some plays, but in the end the Hokie defense has enough talent to shut down the ECU offense in a low scoring affair.

UPSET WARNING

Utah @ Michigan
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Michigan simply isn’t ready. New head coach Rich Rodriguez has too many new offensive schemes to put in and not enough players to run them. Utah plays plenty of defense and quarterback Brian Johnson is more than ready to duplicate what Armanti Edwards did to the Wolverines in The Big House last season.

Michigan State @ California
(Saturday, 7pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Mark Dantonio’s Spartans are simply too physical for Cal. Jahvid Best has excellent speed and Kevin Riley will be an upgrade over Nate Longshore at quarterback, but in the end Michigan State will win it with defense and Javon Ringer.

LOCKS

I promised myself I would never get in the habit of picking games against the spread. But each week I'll take a look at the lines and if anything jumps out at me I'll let you know. Don't get used to looking at that fancy graphic is all I'm saying...

N.C. State (+12) over South Carolina
(Thursday, 7pm, ESPN)
South Carolina has an excellent defense, there’s no question about that. But at this stage of the season I’m not convinced their offense can even score 12 points.

East Carolina (+10) over Virginia Tech
(Saturday, 11am, ESPN)
Poly only won by 10 at home last year. Tech loses just about their entire starting defense and many key skill players on offense and must travel to Charlotte, NC this year.

Illinois (+8½) over Missouri
(Saturday, 7:30pm, ESPN)
Missouri will probably jump out to a big lead, much the way they did last season in this game. But Ron Zook will make adjustments and Illinois will take this rivalry game down to the wire.

Northern Illinois (+8½) over Minnesota
(Saturday, 6pm)
Minnesota is garbage until they prove to me otherwise. After going 1-11 and losing to Bowling Green and North Dakota State a year ago, I’m not convinced Minnesota can beat a MAC team that returns 18 starters. Even if they do it won’t be by much with that awful defense.