Thursday Night Previews

Football season is here! It all gets under way tonight with a couple of intriguing rematches.

South Carolina at N.C. State
(6 pm, ESPN)
South Carolina blanked N.C. State 34-0 on opening week a year ago. But both teams went in the exact opposite directions the rest of the season. Now the Wolfpack are the favorites, thanks to the leadership of sophomore quarterback Russell Wilson. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier says that Stephen Garcia is the man at quarterback, but he hasn't proven enough up to this point.
J.Pike's Pick: N.C. State 26, South Carolina 18

Oregon at Boise State
(10:15 pm, ESPN)
Boise State took a big step toward respectability when the young Broncos went into Autzen Stadium and emerged victorious early in 2008. Now the Ducks must visit Boise and I'm not sure they have what it takes to win on the blue turf. This is the game of the year for Chris Peterson's bunch - the game many feel could stand between Boise State and an undefeated season - so you know they'll be ready. The experience heavily favors Boise too, with Oregon only returning nine starters and featuring a first year head coach. Look for the Broncos to make a statement with their defense early on and ride the momentum to a win.
J.Pike's Pick: Boise State 30, Oregon 24

Gameday Commentary - 5:30 pm

*Kansas State is a bad team. There are no fundamentals at all; nobody on defense can tackle; there are breakdowns in the special teams; and worst of all, the team has no confidence. I feel bad for the players in this situation. The coaching staff is clueless from and X's & O's standpoint, and on top of that, Ron Prince made them run laps in the middle of the night when they got back from a road loss against Louisville a couple weeks ago. Ron Prince looks like he's in his final season as head coach in Manhattan.

*I still like Jim Harbaugh at Stanford. He's a fiery head coach who doesn't let his team quit. Even when his team trailed 28-7 in the third quarter, the Cardinal never quit and Harbaugh was fighting for calls. Stanford ended up cutting the lead to 28-21 and had the ball with a chance to tie.

*I have to give Chris Smelley some credit. He played a great game today in South Carolina's win over Ole Miss.

*Kentucky is giving Alabama all they can handle. Alabama has been great this year, and the defense is playing up to those standards today. But Kentucky is laying the blue print for how to stop the Crimson Tide offense. John Parker Wilson hasn't been a big part of the conservative game plan, but he's not doing his part. Wilson has struggled mightily on throws down the field. Also, kicker Leigh Tiffin has been awful today.

*I've said it once, I'll say it again: I'm not sure there's a quarterback in the country with a stronger arm than Juice Williams.

*Michigan quarterback Steven Threet is coming around. He looked very average early in the season, but his accuracy has improved, particularly on the deep throws that you have to complete to keep defenses from loading up the box.

*Tommy Tuberville is taking his team back! After putting up with Tony Franklin's ridiculous spread offense for the first several weeks (and getting poor results), Tuberville clearly straightened things out this week. The first few drives included more non-shotgun formations than Auburn has run all season. That allowed them to take advantage of Ben Tate's strengths and build a 13-0 lead. Also, Auburn's defense is as good as it has ever been. If the offense keeps playing REAL football (as opposed to that shotgun every play/sideways running nonsense Franklin has been running all year), Auburn is a team that can have legit national title dreams.

*The discovery of the day: Miami WR/KR Travis Benjamin. The freshman has incredible speed and agility and has played a huge role in getting Miami back in the game in the second half against Florida State. Keep an eye on this kid because he'll be making some big plays this year and beyond.

Week Three Preview

UPSET WATCH

#1 Georgia @ South Carolina
Why it could happen: Because it happened last year. South Carolina’s defense was able to keep Georgia out of the end zone, and they are loaded on that side of the ball this year.
Why it won’t happen: Georgia is a much better team now than the one that lost to USC a year ago. Even though there are mostly the same faces, this team grew up after that loss, and Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford are now two of the best in the country.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, South Carolina 13

Iowa State @ Iowa
Why it could happen: It’s a rivalry game and anything can happen. On top of that, Iowa State is a team on the rise. Gene Chizik has the offense headed in the right direction and freshman quarterback Austin Arnaud is more than capable of leading an upset victory.
Why it won’t happen: The Iowa defense isn’t as good as their stats so far this year, but they’re good enough. The Hawkeyes seem to be playing better as a team this year, and their offensive line finally seems up to Kirk Ferentz standards. That will give Iowa the ability to control the ball and the clock, which will ultimately be the key to victory.
J.Pike’s Pick: Iowa 27, Iowa State 24

UPSET WARNING

#9 Auburn @ Mississippi State
Why it will happen: Mississippi State will keep the turnovers to a minimum and play outstanding defense. The new Auburn offense will learn a lesson about abandoning physical football. Good luck with that sideways running game against the speedy Bulldogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Mississippi State 15, Auburn 12

Stanford @ TCU
Why it will happen: TCU is always sketchy when they are supposed to be good. Stanford on the other hand has been playing over their heads ever since Jim Harbaugh took the job. Running back Toby Gerhart will prove you can run the ball against the usually stout TCU defense and Stanford will out-heart the Horned Frogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Stanford, 27, TCU 24

WEEK TWO - Top 25 Preview (Thursday night edition)

#20 South Carolina @ Vanderbilt
Thursday, 7:30pm, ESPN
Vanderbilt actually beat Steve Spurrier for the first time ever last year. Quarterback Chris Nickson will keep it close this year too … for about a half. South Carolina’s defense is too much for Vandy’s inexperienced offensive line.
J.Pike’s Pick: South Carolina, 24-10

News & Notes

*Jim Tressell said that running back Chris Wells will be fine. However, he did not give any indication whether he would be okay to play this weekend against Ohio or not. My guess is they hold him out this weekend to make sure he’s healthy for USC next week.

*Georgia suffered another blow this weekend when defensive tackle Jeff Owens tore his ACL against Georgia Southern and will be out for the rest of the season. Georgia already lost their best offensive lineman Trinton Sturdivant to a knee injury a couple weeks ago and can’t afford any more serious injuries to key players considering the ridiculous schedule they must face this year.

*Mack Brown has suspended defensive tackle Lamarr Houston for the game this weekend against UTEP. Houston played well against Florida Atlantic and is a key player on the defensive line, but he picked up a DWI charge after the game on Saturday night.

*Missouri's Bo Jackson Award candidate Jeremy Maclin might play this weekend against Southeast Missouri State despite a sprained ankle. This is good news to Tiger fans because it means Maclin should be able to get back to 100% by the time the Big XII schedule rolls around.

*Reports out of Louisiana indicate that the Troy at LSU game scheduled for this weekend will be postponed. Both teams have an open date on November 15th, so that seems to be the most likely date for the game to be played.

*Chris Todd was named the starting quarterback for Auburn’s game against Southern Miss this weekend. Kodi Burns, who started last weekend, suffered a cut on his leg, but Tuberville said he wouldn’t have started anyway.

*After playing well in relief of Tommy Beecher last Thursday night, Chris Smelley will start for South Carolina this Thursday night against Vanderbilt. Stephen Garcia is expected to be the backup as Spurrier’s revolving door at quarterback continues.

*Yeah, that was a bad idea. Frank Beamer has decided not to redshirt quarterback Tyrod Taylor after all. Sean Glennon played, well, like Sean Glennon in the loss to East Carolina on Saturday, and Beamer apparently realized Taylor is the only offensive weapon on the roster. Glennon will start, but Taylor will play this weekend against Furman.

*Rich Rodriguez announced that he will redshirt quarterback Justin Feagin this season. Despite the struggles of Nick Sheridan and Stephen Threat against Utah, Rodriguez said the speedy freshman “isn’t ready yet.”

*The funniest story of the weekend had to be in North Carolina where parachuters jumped into the wrong stadium with the game ball. Read for yourself. [LINK]

WEEK ONE - Preview

UPSET WATCH

Wake Forest @ Baylor
(Thursday, 7pm, FSN)
Why it could happen: Wake Forest is getting fat from all the preseason hype and is slightly overrated. Baylor head coach Art Briles will have his team fired up and ready to play the best game fans in Waco have seen in several years.
Why it won’t happen: Wake isn’t that overrated. Baylor will hang in there for a while on the high of the new coaching staff and their home crowd, but the Demon Deacon defense will come up with key stops down the stretch.

Virginia Tech vs East Carolina
(Saturday, 11am, ESPN)
Why it could happen: East Carolina returns quarterback Patrick Pinkney and a large portion of their defense. Virginia Tech on the other hand loses just about every key playmaker off last year’s team that was pushed to the limit by this same Pirate team.
Why it won’t happen: Virginia Tech still has too much overall talent to lose this game. It will be close throughout and the Hokies will need some offensive skill players to step up and make some plays, but in the end the Hokie defense has enough talent to shut down the ECU offense in a low scoring affair.

UPSET WARNING

Utah @ Michigan
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Michigan simply isn’t ready. New head coach Rich Rodriguez has too many new offensive schemes to put in and not enough players to run them. Utah plays plenty of defense and quarterback Brian Johnson is more than ready to duplicate what Armanti Edwards did to the Wolverines in The Big House last season.

Michigan State @ California
(Saturday, 7pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Mark Dantonio’s Spartans are simply too physical for Cal. Jahvid Best has excellent speed and Kevin Riley will be an upgrade over Nate Longshore at quarterback, but in the end Michigan State will win it with defense and Javon Ringer.

LOCKS

I promised myself I would never get in the habit of picking games against the spread. But each week I'll take a look at the lines and if anything jumps out at me I'll let you know. Don't get used to looking at that fancy graphic is all I'm saying...

N.C. State (+12) over South Carolina
(Thursday, 7pm, ESPN)
South Carolina has an excellent defense, there’s no question about that. But at this stage of the season I’m not convinced their offense can even score 12 points.

East Carolina (+10) over Virginia Tech
(Saturday, 11am, ESPN)
Poly only won by 10 at home last year. Tech loses just about their entire starting defense and many key skill players on offense and must travel to Charlotte, NC this year.

Illinois (+8½) over Missouri
(Saturday, 7:30pm, ESPN)
Missouri will probably jump out to a big lead, much the way they did last season in this game. But Ron Zook will make adjustments and Illinois will take this rivalry game down to the wire.

Northern Illinois (+8½) over Minnesota
(Saturday, 6pm)
Minnesota is garbage until they prove to me otherwise. After going 1-11 and losing to Bowling Green and North Dakota State a year ago, I’m not convinced Minnesota can beat a MAC team that returns 18 starters. Even if they do it won’t be by much with that awful defense.

SEC Preview

Favorites

East: Georgia
Mark Richt’s squad is loaded, and a preseason favorite to compete for a national title. The schedule is also loaded as the Bulldogs face eight coaches who have won national championships on one level or another – and that doesn’t even count Tommy Tuberville who went undefeated at Auburn in 2004. If the talented Bulldogs can stay hungry and manage that schedule, they’ll be in the SEC title game with a berth in the National Championship game on the line.

West: Auburn
Defending national champ LSU has too many holes to fill to be considered a favorite in the West. Auburn is breaking in two new coordinators, but strangely I have more faith in Tuberville than I do in the gambling Les Miles. There’s no way LSU converts on 4th downs as often as they did last season again!

Sleepers
East: South Carolina
Steve Spurrier predicted his Gamecocks would compete for the SEC East title prior to last season. A rash of injuries put an end to those dreams despite a 6-1 start. If the loaded defense can stay healthy, new coordinator Ellis Johnson should be able to mold them into one of the finest defenses in the nation. A good defense can go a long way.

West: Mississippi State
Was Mississippi State a one-year wonder, or are they going to stick around in the SEC West race again this year? Don’t be surprised if Sly Croom and his rock-solid defense, led by playmaking DB Derek Pegues, make another appearance in the postseason. The Bulldogs beat Alabama and won at Auburn last season, so there’s no reason they can’t pull off a similar feat again. And because it looks like LSU will take a step back coming off their national championship season, anything can happen in the wild SEC West.

On the Rise: Ole Miss
It’s safe to say the Ed Orgeron experiment was a mistake and should just be forgotten. Enter Houston Nutt, whose track record in the SEC proves he’ll be able to bring consistency back to the program. The cupboard is far from bare too, especially on the defensive side of the ball. He’ll need to find a running back, but since when has that been a problem for Nutt? True freshman Enrique Davis will challenge for playing time, but don’t count Dexter McCluster out of the equation. He showed flashes of brilliance as a true freshman two years ago, but was later inexplicably moved to wide receiver.

Declining: Arkansas
What were they thinking? Running the successful Houston Nutt out of town is one thing, but to turn around and hire Bobby Petrino is a double-whammy on the program. Petrino is a sound offensive coach, but he will have a hard time commanding respect from his players any more, and he’ll just leave a mess behind when he eventually bolts again (see Louisville and the Atlanta Falcons current situations). Expect some down years for the Razorbacks.

PROJECTED STANDINGS & RECORDS

East
1. Georgia	11-1 (7-1 conference)
2. Florida	10-2 (6-2)
3. Tennessee	9-3 (5-3)
4. South Carolina	7-5 (4-4)
5. Kentucky	6-6 (2-6)
6. Vanderbilt	2-10 (0-8)
West
1. Auburn	10-2 (6-2)
2. LSU	9-3 (5-3)
3. Alabama	7-5 (4-4)
4. Mississippi State	7-5 (4-4)
5. Ole Miss	6-6 (3-5)
6. Arkansas	4-8 (2-6)

PLAYERS OF THE YEAR
Offense: Knowshon Moreno (RB, Georgia)
Defense: Jasper Brinkley (LB, South Carolina)
Special Teams: Brandon James (KR, Florida)

NATIONAL AWARDS CANDIDATES
Darry Beckwith (LB-LSU) – Arrington, Fave
Eric Berry (DB-Ten) – Arrington, Deion
Tray Blackmon (LB-Aub) – Arrington
Jasper Brinkley (LB-SoCar) – Arrington, Fave
Wes Byrum (K-Aub) – Sproles/Sauerbrun
Dannell Ellerbe (LB-UGA) – Arrington, Fave
Greg Hardy (DE-Miss) - Arrington
Percy Harvin (WR-Fla) – Bo Jackson, Sayers
Brandon James (KR-Fla) – Sproles/Sauerbrun
Ricky Jean-Francois (DL-LSU) – Arrington
Rashad Johnson (DB-Bama) – Deion
Knowshon Moreno (RB-UGA) – Bo Jackson, Sayers, Fave
Captain Munnerlyn (DB-SoCar) – Deion, Fave
Chris Nickson (QB-Vandy) - Frazier
Derek Pegues (DB-MSU) – Arrington, Deion
Chris Rainey (RB-Fla) - Sayers
Andre Smith (OL-Bama) – Bo Jackson
Brannan Southerland (FB-UGA) – Fave
Brandon Spikes (LB-Fla) – Arrington
Matthew Stafford (QB-UGA) – Bo Jackson, Fave
Tim Tebow (QB-Fla) – Bo Jackson, Frazier
Gold Wrenches:
LSU defensive line
Tennessee offensive line
Florida offensive line
Georgia defensive line
Ole Miss offensive line
Florida defensive line
Alabama offensive line
Auburn defensive line
Auburn offensive line
LSU offensive line
Ole Miss defensive line

JP25 - #22 SOUTH CAROLINA

Steve Spurrier heaped big expectations on his team heading into the 2007 season. After a 6-1 start that included a victory at Georgia it looked like he might have been right about declaring the Gamecocks ready to win the SEC East. But the injuries piled up and an inability to stop the run led to five straight losses to close the season. SC didn't even manage to grab a bowl berth.

Offense- This definitely isn't the Spurrier offenses of old. In fact, the only thing reminiscent of his days in The Swamp is the fact that nobody has any idea who is going to be quarterbacking this team. Stephen Garcia would appear to be the most able player at the position, but he keeps getting in trouble and is currently suspended from the team. That leaves Chris Smelley and Tommy Beecher to compete for the job. Beecher was named the starter coming out of spring practices, but that may simply be because Smelley isn't an SEC-caliber quarterback. Is Beecher? We'll find out.

The receiving corps will at least be a little more experienced this season, led by the dynamite senior Kenny McKinley and tight end Jared Cook. McKinley is truly one of the elite receivers in the SEC, and he'll bail out whoever is playing QB more often than not. Cook is one of the best pass catching tight ends in the nation as well. There are a host of other receivers who got a year of experience under their belt in 2007, so it would be nice if one established himself as a reliable #2 wideout.

The loss of Cory Boyd at running back leaves a big hole to fill. Boyd was a tough runner with a good burst, and good enough hands to haul in 36 passes on the season. Senior Mike Davis will get first shot at replacing him, but he's nowhere near the player Boyd was. Spurrier needs either sophomore Brian Maddox or freshman Eric Baker to step up and fill the void or it is going to be that much tougher on the quarterback.

The Gamecocks should be in better shape up front. Last season's instability, which included rotating players in and out of the lineup at multiple positions, means that eight linemen return with starting experience. They should be sorted out and much more consistent in '08. They'll need to be with the question marks in the backfield.

Defense- As hard as this is to believe, the defense will probably be the backbone of this Spurrier team. The Gamecocks gave up loads of real estate on the ground in 2007 (209 yards per game, which ranked last in the SEC and 110th in the nation), but they suffered several injuries up front, and have brought in new defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson from Mississippi State. Johnson shuffled some players around to better utilize their strengths, and stud Jasper Brinkley returns after missing the majority of last season due to injury.

The linebacking corps might actually be one of the best in the conference. Brinkley should be an all-SEC candidate, as he was well on his way to becoming last season before he got hurt. There's no way he lets this defense give up over 200 yards per game on the ground again. Eric Norwood stepped into the spotlight in 2007 as a defensive end, but he was moved to outside linebacker in the spring to give him more freedom to roam and make plays. Rodney Paulk and Marvin Sapp each had over 60 tackles in '07 and might not even secure the other starting spot.

The defensive line is bolstered by the return of Jordin Lindsey, who was ineligible last year, and Cliff Matthews, who moved from linebacker. These two pass rushers should be a nice complement to a trio of tackles that will rotate in order to stay fresh. Nathan Pepper and Marque Hall were two other players hobbled by injuries last year who should help bolster this unit against opposing running games.

Even if the front seven suffers as many injuries as they did last season, the defense is still in good hands with a secondary that returns two more All-SEC candidates. Cornerback Captain Munnerlyn not only has one of the coolest names in the nation, he also is one of the better playmakers in the SEC. And if his ballhawking skills don't scare you, strong safety Emanuel Cook's hard hitting and sure tackling should. Cook is one of the best safeties in the SEC and the next tackle he misses will be his first. These two combined to lead SC as the top pass defense in the SEC, where they gave up only 169 yards per game.

If the defense can avoid the same injuries it accumulated in 2007, there is no reason for this defense not to be one of the better units in the SEC. There are stars at every level of the defense, and as many as five players with All-League capability.

Rising Star- Defensive tackle Ladi Ajiboye.

Keep An Eye On- Improvements in the front seven on defense, especially against the run.