Gameday Commentary - 2:30 games

Oregon State 34, California 21

Oregon State has some speed. Between Jacquizz Rodgers, James Rodgers, and Sammie Stroughter, the Beavers have enough speed to run circles around the rest of their schedule (Arizona and Oregon) and take home the Pac-10 title. The trio combined for 475 all purpose yards and 3 touchdowns. Wow. How did those speedy Rodgers brothers not get out of Texas?

Florida 56, South Carolina 6
Oh, I get it. Florida is so good because of their defense and special teams. I'm still not impressed with the offense, but the defense and special teams are indeed special. Both units picked up a touchdown in the first quarter, and that has become the norm in Gainesville lately.

The speed the Gators have on defense and special teams is matched only by the fire with which they play. If Florida goes on to run the table and beat Alabama in the SEC championship game, it won't be because of their inconsistent offense. It will be because of the play of the defense and special teams.

Can somebody please tell me why Charlie Strong doesn't have a head coaching job yet??

Wisconsin 35, Minnesota 32
The little mistakes are starting to add up for Minnesota. Despite an impressive 7-1 start, the Gophers are reverting to 2007 form during the now 3-game losing streak.

Minnesota took an easy 21-7 lead into the locker room at half time. They even took a 24-17 lead into the fourth quarter, but that's when they fell apart. Specifically, the special teams fell apart.

Early in the fourth quarter, right after Wisconsin tied up the game at 24 apiece, Troy Stoudermire fumbled the ensuing kickoff and it went out the back of the end zone for a safety. Then after forcing a Wisconsin punt on the next drive, the Minnesota punt returner made a bone headed decision to field the ball inside his own five yard line. That decision led to another safety for the Badgers.

Two safeties in 3 minutes of game time meant Wisconsin would have all the momentum for the rest of the game. But to make matters worse, quarterback Adam Weber fumbled at his own 11 yard line on the next Minnesota possession, which Wisconsin turned into a touchdown. Game over. Tim Brewster needs to get these mistakes ironed out.

As a side note, Wisconsin looks to have finally found a quarterback. Dustin Sherer has a good arm and played with excellent composure. The junior had a huge third quarter and made some clutch throws to get the Badgers back in the game.

News & Notes

*Minnesota will be without leading receiver Eric Decker for their matchup with rival Wisconsin on Saturday. Decker has a high ankle sprain and should be ready for the season finale against Iowa. The absence of Decker, the Big Ten's leader in receptions, opens the door for speedy freshman Brandon Green to take center stage in trying to get the Golden Gophers season back on track.

*The revolving door at quarterback for California continues. Kevin Riley will get the start against Oregon State on Saturday a week after Nate Longshore drew the starting assignment against USC. Riley won't impress you stats-wise, but he is much more confident in the pocket and less likely to make big mistakes that cost his team wins.

*Miami left tackle Jason Fox is listed as doubtful for the Canes Thursday night matchup with Virginia Tech. Fox sprained his ankle against Virginia and has not been able to practice since. With Jason Worilds and the active Hokie front coming to town, now is not the best time for Miami to have to shake up their offensive line.

NEWS & NOTES - NEBRASKA EDITION

*Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini finally handed out the Blackshirts on Tuesday. The defense's performance against Kansas on Saturday wasn't quite up to the standards set by Blackshirt units of the past, but defensive coordinator Carl Pelini liked the physical play and felt like the time was now. The first eleven Blackshirts of the Pelini era were awarded to Pierre Allen, Larry Asante, Phillip Dillard, Eric Hagg, Armando Murillo, Zach Potter, Ty Steinkuhler, Clayton Sievers, Ndamukong Suh, Anthony West and Tyler Wortman.

*Notably absent from the list of Blackshirt recipients is linebacker Cody Glenn. Glenn was suspended indefinitely on Tuesday for violating team rules. Carl Pelini wouldn't give any further explanation other than to say "there's lots of rules that cause suspension, let's move on to another topic." Glenn was easily one of the most athletic players on the Nebraska defense and his presence in the lineup will be missed.

WEEK ELEVEN - Gameday Preview

Michigan (+7½) over Minnesota
The Michigan defense was torched to the tune of 522 yards and 48 points a week ago against Purdue, but I still have faith in them. Defensive end Brandon Graham and the front seven are more than capable of corralling Minnesota quarterback Adam Weber when he runs, and Donovan Warren and Morgan Trent are solid corners who should be able to prevent Weber from throwing the ball all over the yard. I like Minnesota to find a way to win this game at home, but I don’t think it will be by more than a touchdown.

Wisconsin (-10) over Indiana
Wisconsin has their running game back, as evidenced by the 281 yards on the ground last weekend against Michigan State. That doesn’t bode well for Indiana, who ranks eighth in the Big Ten against the run. I expect John Clay and P.J. Hill to have big games in leading a Wisconsin rout.

Rice (-9½) over Army
Army is improving, but they still can’t match Rice’s firepower. Chase Clement and the gang shouldn’t have a problem scoring between 30 and 40 points on Army, which all but guarantees at least a ten point win.

Arizona (-39) over Washington State
Washington State has been generous all year. Despite huge spreads like this one, they have failed to cover in all 8 of their games against 1-A competition. In fact, the Cougars average margin of defeat in Pac-10 play this season is by a whopping 52.8 points! Arizona has scored over 40 points four times this season, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them top 60 here.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Purdue (+9½) over Michigan State
Tennessee (-25½) over Wyoming
Iowa State (+10) over Colorado
Penn State (-7) over Iowa
Virginia (+3½) over Wake Forest
N.C. State (+4½) over Duke
Florida Atlantic (-21) over North Texas High
Cincinnati (+8) over West Virginia

WEEK ELEVEN - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

Utah State @ #11 Boise State

(Saturday, 2 pm)
Utah State is one of the worst teams in Division 1-A and Boise is fighting for a slot in the BCS. This is a no brainer.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 39, Utah State 7

#12 Ohio State @ Northwestern
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN 2)
Northwestern can’t seem to catch a break, even when they catch a break. Coming off a big win at Minnesota a week ago that featured a game winning interception return for touchdown in the final minute, the Wildcats learned they will have to take on Ohio State without the services of tailback Omar Conteh. Conteh was filling in for Tyrell Sutton, who is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Backup quarterback Mike Kafka filled in nicely for C.J. Bacher (also injured), but I doubt he’ll run for over 200 yards against the Ohio State defense like he did against Minnesota. That doesn’t leave a lot of scoring options for Northwestern.
J.Pike’s Pick: Ohio State 24, Northwestern 13

Kansas State @ #14 Missouri
(Saturday, 6 pm, FSN)
Now that the Wildcats know Ron Prince won’t be their head coach next season, will they step up or fade away? If they decide to step up and play for their lame duck coach they have the offensive weapons to make this a game. If they don’t, Missouri, who is struggling with regaining national respect after back to back losses to Oklahoma State and Texas earlier this year, will blow them off the field. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to Jeremy Maclin and Chase Daniel.
J.Pike’s Pick: Missouri 52, Kansas State 27

Purdue @ #15 Michigan State
(Saturday, 11 am, Big Ten Network)
What do you know? If you take Curtis Painter out of the lineup and give the ball to Kory Sheets 30 times Purdue wins. After struggling to score all season, Joe Tiller made the move to Justin Siller at quarterback (because Painter was “injured”) and gave Sheets his carries and the Boilermakers scored 48 points on Michigan. They won’t produce the same against a superior defense, but if Tiller goes with the same formula I give Purdue a realistic shot at knocking off 15th ranked Spartans - especially if they can slow down Javon Ringer the way Wisconsin did a week ago (54 yards on 21 carries).
J.Pike’s Pick: Michigan State 24, Purdue 17

#18 Georgia Tech @ #16 North Carolina
(Saturday, 11 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
Neither of these teams were considered top 25 teams in the preseason. Now it’s November and Butch Davis and Paul Johnson each appear to have their teams in the ACC Coastal Division race to stay. That means this could develop into an interesting rivalry over the next few years. This year’s matchup will come down to which offense is able to move the ball the most consistently. Georgia Tech has the best defensive line in the conference. 6-foot-7 Michael Johnson is a beast off the edge and Vance Walker is a major disruptor in the middle. North Carolina isn’t bad up front either because sophomore tackle Marvin Austin is one of the best young players in the ACC. So which offense is better suited to keep the chains moving? At first glance it would appear to be Georgia Tech. Johnson’s triple option offense has been grinding up ACC foes all year and the Yellow Jackets are healthy for the most part. North Carolina on the other hand is without their top playmaker Brandon Tate, who is out for the rest of the season due to a knee injury. Quarterback T.J. Yates has also missed the last several games with an ankle injury, but Cam Sexton has filled in admirably. Look for the UNC defense to stay disciplined and keep the Ramblin’ Wreck from breaking a long run in this game, as wide receiver Hakeem Nicks steps up on offense to provide a big play or two in the passing game.
J.Pike’s Pick: North Carolina 23, Georgia Tech 20

Louisville @ #19 Pittsburgh
(Saturday, 11 am, Big East Network)
Here we go again – another weak Big East matchup to pick. For those of you out there complaining about Utah potentially getting a BCS bowl bid, you need to refocus your argument. The Mountain West Conference actually deserves to get a team into the BCS this year. The Big East on the other hand does not. Who in the Big East is capable of beating any of the top three teams (Utah, TCU, BYU) in the Mountain West? West Virginia? Pitt? South Florida? Cincinnati? UConn? Louisville? I’d say none of the above. So quit complaining about Utah making a BCS game and start complaining about the Big East getting an automatic berth.
J.Pike’s Pick: Pittsburgh 33, Louisville 27

Michigan @ #23 Minnesota
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
Has Michigan given up on this season? From the looks of last week’s defensive meltdown against Purdue one might think so. Minnesota is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Northwestern on their home field, but the Gophers are still a surprising 7-2. Tim Brewster must be doing something right, so I think they rebound and pick up a win over the floundering Wolverines.
J.Pike’s Pick: Minnesota 24, Michigan 21

#24 Cincinnati @ West Virginia
(Saturday, 6 pm, ESPN U)
Tony Pike is back and playing with a broken arm. He’s got playmaking wideout Marshawn Gilyard at his disposal, but unfortunately the junior superstar doesn’t play defense. Cincinnati will struggle to keep up with Nimble Noel Devine. Pat White and new offensive coordinator Jeff Mullen have slowly been adapting to one another, but finally seem to be on the same page. Pat White being on top of his game is bad news for Cincinnati.
J.Pike’s Pick: West Virginia 30, Cincinnati 28

San Diego State @ #25 BYU
(Saturday, 1 pm, the mtn.)
Here’s some fun stats: BYU is 8-1, SDSU is 1-8.
BYU scoring offense: 35.7 points per game;
SDSU scoring defense: 35.7 points per game;
BYU quarterback Max Hall averages 305.9 passing yards per game;
SDSU allows 292.8 rushing yards per game;
I’ll save you the trouble – it all adds up to a big BYU win.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 35.7, San Diego State 10

WEEK TEN - J&BP Top 25 Preview

#1 Texas @ #8 Texas Tech

(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
Since Texas Tech’s last win in this series in 2002, Texas has won by an average score of 48 to 30. These games haven’t been as close as you might think from all the “it’s always tough up there in Lubbock” talk. It’s just Drunk Vince Gill’s clownish offense clouding your memory. Texas is on a roll and the talk of a Texas Tech upset this weekend is just the fuel they need to take the field with a chip on their shoulder in Lubbock. On the field the Longhorns will get it done by actually playing a little defense. Much like the game plan Will Muschamp put together to stifle Missouri’s potent offense, he’ll turn his imposing D-Line loose, send blitzers after Graham Harrell, and hit the quarterback repeatedly until Tech is forced to narrow those wide offensive line splits they are known for. Don’t think for a second Tech’s line will be able to handle Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller – nobody has contained those two all season. The Red Raiders have run the ball a little bit more this year, and that is the X-Factor here. But I haven’t seen enough from Leach’s track record to indicate he’ll actually stick with the run in a big game. Look for Texas to win easily in a relatively low scoring game. Well, low scoring compared to what some are expecting anyway.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 42, Texas Tech 28

Arkansas State @ #2 Alabama
(Saturday, 2 pm, ESPN360.com)
Bama had better be careful here. And no, I’m not joking. Arkansas State has a respectable 4-3 record that includes a win over Texas A&M. Quarterback Corey Leonard and running backs Reggie Arnold and Derek Lawson form an unsung trio in the backfield – all three could make a name for themselves with big games against Alabama. Let’s also not forget this is the same Crimson Tide team that lost a game to Louisiana-Monroe late last season. Nick Saban has an extremely physical football team, but he also has an offense that is limited, especially if you can manage to slow down Glen Coffee and the running game. Arkansas State will show up ready to play, and they WILL give Alabama a game. How long will the Red Wolves hang in there? We’ll find out Saturday.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 20, Arkansas State 17

#3 Penn State is IDLE

#7 Florida vs #4 Georgia (@ Jacksonville, FL)
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
There’s no shortage of motivation in this rivalry. By now I’m sure everyone has re-lived the moment last year when the entire Georgia team ran on the field to celebrate after scoring their first touchdown. I know Urban Meyer and the Florida Gators remember it, so this might be one of those games where the team that can manage their emotions the best and make fewer stupid mistakes in the heat of battle will win. Georgia has committed their fair share of stupid penalties this year, and that could be what does them in if they lose. Florida is known for their speed and explosive offense, and a lot of prognosticators are expecting the Gators to run Georgia off the field in a blowout. But did you know Georgia is actually averaging 20 more yards per game offensively than Florida this year? Keep in mind that is against a much more challenging schedule too. Meyer’s offense seems to be based more around speed than actual Xs & Os. Georgia’s defense can match Florida’s speed, so will Meyer be able to counter the attacking Bulldog defense with a play more creative than “Hey Tim Tebow, fake like you are going to run then throw a jump pass to the tight end”? We’ll see. Georgia also has not-so-secret weapon Knowshon Moreno in the backfield. The sophomore tailback is easily one of the best players in the nation and he runs with a determination that you have to see to fully appreciate him. He’ll be the key to getting Georgia off to a fast start, and he’ll poke and prod the Florida defenders until they start committing stupid penalties. Georgia gets back in the national title discussion with an impressive win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 32, Florida 20

Nebraska @ #5 Oklahoma
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN)
With Bo Pelini in the fold this rivalry will eventually pick up steam again. The problem is, with the Big XII scheduling the way it is, it will never be the event it once was. Nebraska will play Oklahoma this year and next year during the rebuilding process, but the two won’t be scheduled to play in the regular season in 2010 or 2011. So Pelini will have to squeeze some magic out of this series with an inferior roster for the next two years. Don’t think he can’t do it either. Oklahoma is talented, and I’m sure Sam Bradford is licking his chops to go up against one of the more error-prone secondaries in the nation, but the Sooners are prone to mental breakdowns defensively too. They are also gaining a reputation for not showing up in big games late in the season. Bradford might have his way with the secondary early, but I expect Nebraska to adjust and scratch and claw their way into making this a game in the second half.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma 34, Nebraska 21

Washington @ #6 USC
(Saturday, 5:30 pm, FSN)
Here’s another opportunity for USC to put up an impressive score against a bad team. All the national pundits will see the big score and gush about how great the Trojans are and how they are “the most dangerous team in the nation right now.” Go ahead and keep inflating their egos – I can’t wait to see them lose to Stanford again.
J.Pike’s Pick: USC 43, Washington 10

#9 Utah @ New Mexico
(Saturday, 8:30 pm, The Mtn.)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah 23

Iowa State @ #10 Oklahoma State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
How will the Cowboys respond to the loss to Texas? Some might say the strong showing against the #1 team in the country gave them confidence, that it confirmed their belief they belong in the top ten. But don’t forget the possibility that the Cowboys put their season on the line in that game and got their hearts ripped out with a close loss. Sometimes that’s the recipe for a huge letdown the following week. Judging by the way Oklahoma State handled their big win over Missouri (no big celebration, they simply walked off the field like a team that just did what they were supposed to do), I think Mike Gundy has his team on an even keel - they won’t get too ‘down’ because they never got too ‘up’. So I expect Kendall Hunter and Brandon Pettigrew to get back to rolling up points against the struggling Cyclones.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma State 40, Iowa State 17

#11 Boise State @ New Mexico State
(Saturday, 6 pm, ESPN360.com)
Almost four years ago New Mexico State fired their successful head coach Tony Samuel so they could bring in that clown Hal Mumme. Well, a mere 11 wins later that move is looking even more ridiculous than it looked at the time. The Aggies are coming off a loss to lifeless Idaho for goodness sake! I can only imagine how easily Boise State will roll over Mumme and his towel in Las Cruces this weekend.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 34, New Mexico State 13

#12 Ohio State is IDLE

#13 TCU @ UNLV
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 33, UNLV 16

#14 Tulsa @ Arkansas
(Saturday, 1 pm, ESPN360.com)
This won’t be a pretty football game. Gus Malzahn’s Tulsa offense is averaging 605.6 yards and 55.6 points per game this year. Malzahn happens to be the former offensive coordinator at Arkansas and he played a role in the firestorm that eventually led to the ousting of Houston Nutt. He’ll be looking to show the fans in Fayetteville what his offense can do. But Arkansas still has SEC athletes and with home field advantage and running back Michael Smith they are capable of pulling the upset. I’m not sure the Hog defense, which appears to be frightened by the prospect of tackling at times, is up to the challenge of slowing down the Golden Hurricane attack.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 38, Arkansas 34

#15 Missouri @ Baylor
(Saturday, 2 pm)
I like the job Art Briles has done at Baylor so far. He has the Bears playing with more fire than I have seen out of that program in quite a while. A big reason for that has been the play of their hugely talented quarterback Robert Griffin. With Griffin at the helm, I guarantee you Baylor makes a bowl game in the near future. But this year is year one on the learning curve. Missouri and Chase Daniel are way ahead of that, and they won’t hesitate to run it up on the upstart Bears. Jeremy Maclin flat out has too much speed to not reach the end zone at least three times on Saturday.
J.Pike’s Pick: Missouri 51, Baylor 21

Wisconsin @ #16 Michigan State
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
The season is quickly getting away from Wisconsin. Not only are the Badgers struggling to get decent play out of the quarterback spot, they just lost their best offensive weapon, tight end Travis Beckum, for the season thanks to a knee injury. And now they have to travel to face one of the best running backs in the nation. Michigan State’s Javon Ringer is the definition of a workhorse: he averages over 33 carries per game and has piled up 1,373 yards and 16 touchdowns so far this season. Even if Wisconsin manages to slow him down, I’m not sure they’ll be able to put many points on the board.
J.Pike’s Pick: Michigan State 23, Wisconsin 17

#17 Florida State @ Georgia Tech
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN)
Florida State has rallied around freshman quarterback Christian Ponder and quietly climbed to a 6-1 record. I’m not sure about Ponder though. He’s the kind of quarterback that makes stupid plays for the majority of the game and then stumbles his way into a big play in a key situation. I’m not sure how much of it is skill and how much of it is luck, but my impression from watching him is that these clutch plays aren’t going to be there for him against better competition. Georgia Tech has a pretty good defense and they are led up front by end Michael Johnson and tackle Vance Walker. Those two will make it difficult for Ponder to get in a rhythm. Offensively, Georgia Tech will lull a talented Seminole defense to sleep with their triple option, and eventually bust a long run late to set up the game winning score.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia Tech 18, Florida State 16

Tulane @ #18 LSU
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN360.com)
It’s time for the annual battle for Louisiana. It’s also time for LSU to take out some frustrations after giving up 50 points for the second time this season a week ago.
J.Pike’s Pick: LSU 34, Tulane 7

Northwestern @ #19 Minnesota
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN 2)
A season that started out so promising for Northwestern is now falling apart. The Wildcats lost two of their last three games, and must now face top 25 teams Minnesota and Ohio State. Injuries have been the main factor in the sudden dropoff, with quarterback C.J. Bacher and running back Tyrell Sutton each suffering season ending injuries in October. If you tune in to this game, check out Minnesota’s speedy freshman wideout Brandon Green. He broke out with 5 catches for 100 yards a week ago, and showed some excellent speed on a 71-yard reception. He could be a big time player in the Big Ten in the near future.
J.Pike’s Pick: Minnesota 23, Northwestern 16

#20 BYU @ Colorado State
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 34, Colorado State 24

#21 North Carolina is IDLE

#22 Ball State is IDLE

#23 Oregon @ California
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
Jeff Tedford is his own worst enemy. After a strong start to the season with Kevin Riley at quarterback, Tedford decided to give Nate Life-long Spare the job. Once again, Longshore proved he has no mettle and can’t hold up under pressure. His awful play was instrumental in the Bears getting destroyed by Arizona. Tedford went back to Riley at QB and the team responded with an easy win over UCLA. With Riley in the fold, Cal has an excellent shot to beat Oregon, whose pass defense is surprisingly shoddy. This game also features the three best running backs in the Pac-10. Sorry USC – five stars next to your name in high school doesn’t make you a good college running back. Oregon’s LeGarrette Blount has been pounding opponents this season with his physical running style (12 tds), and Jeremiah Johnson has one of the best stiff arms you’ll find. But Cal’s Jahvid Best will be the difference maker. His speed and agility is off the charts, and he’s finally healthy again.
J.Pike’s Pick: California 30, Oregon 28

#24 Maryland is IDLE

Kansas State @ #25 Kansas
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
Here’s a game with shootout potential. Both teams feature potent passing attacks: Kansas quarterback Todd Reesing has Dezmon Briscoe (760 yards, 9 td) and Kerry Meier (63 receptions, 4 td) at his disposal, and Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman likes to find speedy JC transfer Brandon Banks (813 yards, 20.8 yards per reception). Additionally, both defenses were burned repeatedly through the air a week ago: Kansas State gave up 58 points to Oklahoma and Kansas gave up 63 to Texas Tech. Mark Mangino gets the best of Ron Prince in the coaching matchup though.
J.Pike’s Pick: Kansas 38, Kansas State 32

WEEK NINE - Top 25 Preview (Part I: 11-25)

#11 Texas Tech at #16 Kansas
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
Texas Tech hasn’t played anybody up to this point, and they have been sloppy since entering Big XII play. Kansas is just the kind of team that can knock off the Red Raiders. Not only is Todd Reesing and his excellent (now healthy) receiving corps capable of matching Tech point-for-point, they are also a smart team that will take advantage of all of Mike Leach’s coaching mistakes. The Kansas defense will hold the Red Raiders to their lowest point total and knock them from the ranks of the unbeaten.
J.Pike’s Pick: Kansas 36, Texas Tech 27

Wyoming at #13 TCU
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
The Horned Frog defense should have no problems holding Wyoming under 10 points – four other defenses have done it already this year and TCU might be the best defense the Cowboys have played. Jeremy Kerley is one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the Mountain west, but TCU won’t even need him to win this one. How did Joe Glenn’s coaching stock fall so far so fast?
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 35, Wyoming 3

Colorado at #15 Missouri
(Saturday, 5:30 pm, FSN)
Don’t make the mistake of assuming Missouri will bounce right back from their two-game losing streak and destroy Colorado. The Buffaloes are a smart team with some good young players and they are definitely capable of compounding Gary Pinkel’s troubles. But Colorado’s problem is that they often start games aggressively and grab early leads, but then go into safe mode. Missouri will take advantage of that habit and pull out of their nose dive with a win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Missouri 38, Colorado 24

Central Florida at #17 Tulsa
(Sunday, 7 pm, ESPN)
Tulsa boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, but they’ll be facing one of the best defenses in Conference USA here. UCF is still struggling offensively due to a quarterback controversy, but honestly, neither Michael Greco nor freshman Rob Calabrese could really make a difference against Tulsa. David Johnson-to-Brennan Marion will provide the fireworks as they lead the Golden Hurricane to 8-0.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 41, Central Florida 20

UNLV at #18 BYU
(Saturday, 1 pm, The Mtn.)
How will BYU respond coming off their first loss of the season? UNLV has faded of late, but Frank Summers is still capable of chewing up yards and clock with his running. That means BYU can’t be feeling too sorry for themselves or they could be looking at a second consecutive loss. I expect this one to be a dogfight throughout, but in the end Max Hall will find a way to get the win.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 28, UNLV 21

#19 Boston College at North Carolina
(Saturday, 11 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
BC quarterback Chris Crane is finally starting to play well. He’s not throwing nearly as many terrible interceptions as he did in the early part of the year, which is allowing him to utilize his strong arm more effectively. The running of freshman Montel Harris has also been a pleasant surprise as he balances out the offense by chipping in an average of 88 yards the last four games. North Carolina lost quarterback T.J. Yates to injury four weeks ago and has been hanging on for dear life ever since. The Tar Heels have a ton of talent, but it’s looking more and more like 2009 will be the year it all comes together. In the mean time, Mark Herzlich and the BC defense will be enough to slow down Carolina’s incocnsistent offense and get the Eagles to 6-1.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boston College 27, North Carolina 17

Virginia at #20 Georgia Tech
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ESPN U)
Virginia is on a roll. After sputtering to a 1-3 start, the Wahoos are now on a three game winning streak that included victories over Maryland, East Carolina, and North Carolina – all respectable foes. Marc Verica has finally settled in as the quarterback after a revolving door at the position in the early part of the year, but nothing has helped the team more than the healthy return of running back Cedric Peerman. Peerman has invigorated the offense by forcing defenses to worry about the run again instead of pinning their ears back and teeing off on Verica. But Virginia’s winning streak could be in jeopardy against Georgia Tech. Josh Nesbitt is back in the lineup so the triple option offense is once again firing on all cylinders. Paul Johnson’s troops will find a way – as they always seem to do – to douse the flames of a hot Virginia team and continue their climb up the rankings.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia 19

#21 South Florida at Louisville
(Saturday, 2:30 pm)
This matchup pits a USF team that appears to have peaked and is now just treading water against an up-and-coming Louisville team that doesn’t yet have the horses to consistently win games like this – yet. Be patient Louisville fans. If you give Steve Kragthorpe just one more year I guarantee you’ll see Louisville take a big step up in the Big East.
J.Pike’s Pick: South Florida 30, Louisville 24

Rutgers at #22 Pittsburgh
(Saturday, 2:30 pm)
After falling to Bowling Green out of the gate it looked like Pittsburgh was on their way to yet another disappointment-filled season. But since that loss Pitt has won five straight and grabbed an early lead in the Big East race thanks to their victory over South Florida. Now a disappointing Rutgers team comes to town with more talent than their 2-5 record indicates. This is exactly the kind of game Pitt would have blown a year ago, but Rutgers is in a more giving mood this year. The Scarlet Knights will give this game away just as they have been giving games away all year.
J.Pike’s Pick: Pittsburgh 23, Rutgers 18

#23 Virginia Tech at Florida State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
When was the last time Florida State was 5-1 and unranked? That fact demonstrates just how far the Seminoles have fallen from grace recently. Bobby Bowden is but a figurehead now who doesn’t even seem to pretend to coach anymore. On the other sideline, Frank Beamer has a young team and is struggling with his traditionally strong special teams. But the Hokies have enough on defense to rattle Christian Ponder into turnovers. Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor doesn’t get rattled because it’s a rare feet when a defender actually catches him. Hokies win in a defensive struggle.
J.Pike’s Pick: Virginia Tech 18, Florida State 16

#24 Minnesota at Purdue
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN Classic)
This game will go one of two directions: either Purdue will come together as a team and start playing up to their talent level, or they’ll completely fall apart and throw in the towel for the season. There has been a lot of talking in the press from Kory Sheets and even head coach Joe Tiller about the sub-par play of Curtis Painter so far. Both happen to be right – especially Sheets, who needs to get the ball more for the Purdue offense to be effective. Minnesota has been a pleasant surprise so far this season, but I still think it all depends on which Purdue shows up. If Purdue can Boiler Up, they’ll win. Despite all the bickering and in-fighting, I think that’s exactly what will happen.
J.Pike’s Pick: Purdue 30, Minnesota 27

#25 Michigan State at Michigan
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN 2)
Look out Spartans. I know you think this is the year you finally exert your dominance over the state of Michigan football, but think again. Even with the coaching change, Michigan still has the edge in this game. In big games like this, the Michigan State offense can be rather one dimensional. Yeah, Javon Ringer is an excellent one dimension to have, but I think the Michigan defense will more than be up to the challenge of limiting MSU’s scoring opportunities. On the other side of the ball, Michigan quarterback Steven Threet has improved his accuracy enough this year to give the spread offense some balance. Threet will hit enough timely passes to keep drives alive and give Michigan an upset win over their in-state rivals.
J.Pike’s Pick: Michigan 22, Michigan State 20

WEEK ONE - Preview

UPSET WATCH

Wake Forest @ Baylor
(Thursday, 7pm, FSN)
Why it could happen: Wake Forest is getting fat from all the preseason hype and is slightly overrated. Baylor head coach Art Briles will have his team fired up and ready to play the best game fans in Waco have seen in several years.
Why it won’t happen: Wake isn’t that overrated. Baylor will hang in there for a while on the high of the new coaching staff and their home crowd, but the Demon Deacon defense will come up with key stops down the stretch.

Virginia Tech vs East Carolina
(Saturday, 11am, ESPN)
Why it could happen: East Carolina returns quarterback Patrick Pinkney and a large portion of their defense. Virginia Tech on the other hand loses just about every key playmaker off last year’s team that was pushed to the limit by this same Pirate team.
Why it won’t happen: Virginia Tech still has too much overall talent to lose this game. It will be close throughout and the Hokies will need some offensive skill players to step up and make some plays, but in the end the Hokie defense has enough talent to shut down the ECU offense in a low scoring affair.

UPSET WARNING

Utah @ Michigan
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Michigan simply isn’t ready. New head coach Rich Rodriguez has too many new offensive schemes to put in and not enough players to run them. Utah plays plenty of defense and quarterback Brian Johnson is more than ready to duplicate what Armanti Edwards did to the Wolverines in The Big House last season.

Michigan State @ California
(Saturday, 7pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Mark Dantonio’s Spartans are simply too physical for Cal. Jahvid Best has excellent speed and Kevin Riley will be an upgrade over Nate Longshore at quarterback, but in the end Michigan State will win it with defense and Javon Ringer.

LOCKS

I promised myself I would never get in the habit of picking games against the spread. But each week I'll take a look at the lines and if anything jumps out at me I'll let you know. Don't get used to looking at that fancy graphic is all I'm saying...

N.C. State (+12) over South Carolina
(Thursday, 7pm, ESPN)
South Carolina has an excellent defense, there’s no question about that. But at this stage of the season I’m not convinced their offense can even score 12 points.

East Carolina (+10) over Virginia Tech
(Saturday, 11am, ESPN)
Poly only won by 10 at home last year. Tech loses just about their entire starting defense and many key skill players on offense and must travel to Charlotte, NC this year.

Illinois (+8½) over Missouri
(Saturday, 7:30pm, ESPN)
Missouri will probably jump out to a big lead, much the way they did last season in this game. But Ron Zook will make adjustments and Illinois will take this rivalry game down to the wire.

Northern Illinois (+8½) over Minnesota
(Saturday, 6pm)
Minnesota is garbage until they prove to me otherwise. After going 1-11 and losing to Bowling Green and North Dakota State a year ago, I’m not convinced Minnesota can beat a MAC team that returns 18 starters. Even if they do it won’t be by much with that awful defense.

Big Ten Preview

Favorite: Ohio State

There’s no doubt about it. Ohio State has run roughshod over the rest of the Big Ten the past three seasons, and this year’s Buckeyes should be no exception. Virtually everybody of significance is back which means this might even be the best team Jim Tressell has put on the field to date.

Sleeper: Penn State

Despite all the off-season dismissals and injuries, there are still enough talented players left for Penn State to make a run at the Big Ten title. It’s a good thing Paterno had great depth on defense because that was the area hit hardest in the off-season. Even with the losses, the defense should still be very good. Pair that with an offense that boasts as many playmakers as anybody in the conference and it’s easy to see that the biggest threat to Ohio State’s supremacy lays in State College, PA.

On the Rise: Michigan State

Mark Dantonio is on the verge of shifting from being the most underrated head coach in the nation to being a very hot commodity when the big coaching jobs start opening up. Dantonio learned how to win in the Big Ten from Jim Tressell (watch Javon Ringer put up Beanie Wells-like numbers this year) and he has already laid an excellent foundation. Look for the Spartans to continue to improve and become a player in the Big Ten race as early as 2009.

Declining: Minnesota

How can a team that won only one game a year ago be getting worse? Well, consider where Minnesota was just a year and a half ago under Glen Mason and where they are right now under Tim Brewster – the program is in definite decline. Why the Gopher brass decided to fire Mason, the most successful coach at the school in recent memory, is beyond me. It led to a terrible product on the field and the only thing that has changed this season is the defensive coordinator - as if that was the problem. Gopher faithful better get comfortable in the cellar because that’s where they’ll be for a while. But look on the bright side – at least they won’t have to watch games in that awful dome much longer!

PROJECTED STANDINGS & RECORDS

1. Ohio State	11-1 (7-1 conference)
2. Penn State	10-2 (6-2)
3. Wisconsin	9-3 (5-3)
4. Illinois	8-4 (5-3)
5. Michigan State	8-4 (5-3)
6. Michigan	7-5 (4-4)
7. Iowa	6-6 (4-4)
8. Northwestern	6-6 (3-5)
9. Purdue	5-7 (3-5)
10. Indiana	5-7 (2-6)
11. Minnesota	2-10 (0-8)

PLAYERS OF THE YEAR
Offense: Javon Ringer (RB, Michigan State)
Defense: James Laurinaitis (LB, Ohio State)
Special Teams: David Gilreath (KR, Wisconsin)

NATIONAL AWARDS CANDIDATES
Vontae Davis (CB-Ill) – Arrington, Deion
Maurice Evans (DE-PSU) – Arrington
David Gilreath (KR-Wis) – Sproles/Sauerbrun
Stephfon Green (RB-PSU) – J.Pike’s Fave
Malcolm Jenkins (CB-OSU) – Arrington, Deion
James Laurinaitis (LB-OSU) – Arrington
Kellen Lewis (QB – Ind) – Frazier
Zoltan Mesko (P-Mich) – Sproles/Sauerbrun
Terrelle Pryor (QB-OSU) – Frazier
Javon Ringer (RB-MSU) - Bo Jackson
Anthony Scirrotto (DB-PSU) – Deion
Morgan Trent (DB-Mich) – Deion
Donvan Warren (CB – Mich) – Deion
Chris Wells (RB-OSU) – Bo Jackson
Juice Williams (QB-Ill) – Frazier
Martez Wilson (LB-Ill) - Arrington
Gold Wrenches:
Ohio State offensive line
Penn State defensive line
Ohio State defensive line
Wisconsin offensive line
Penn State offensive line
Michigan defensive line