JP Top 25 - Week 10

With apologies to Nevada and San Jose State, who are set to play later tonight, here is my top 25 following an exciting week ten.

1. Texas (Record: 9-0, Last Week: 1)
The Longhorns continue to look like the best team in the nation, with the best balance of offense, defense, and special teams.

2. Alabama (9-0, LW: 2)
A gutty performance by the Crimson Tide showed this team has what it takes to fight through tough times and still come out victorious.

3. Florida (9-0, LW: 3)
Offensively, Florida is easily the worst team among the top teams in the nation. Allow me to be the first to predict the Gators will be BETTER on offense in 2010 when John Brantley takes over the QB spot. He's got a much better arm and will really help open things up. Whether he can win like Tebow or not will be the real discussion in the offseason.

4. TCU (9-0, LW: 4)
I'm making the road trip to Fort Worth to watch the game of the week in person next weekend. TCU hosts Utah, their last big test of the season.

5. Georgia Tech (9-1, LW: 6)
Paul Johnson's gutsy call to go for it on fourth down late in the fourth quarter while trailing Wake Forest shows the confidence he has in his offense right now.

6. Cincinnati (9-0, LW: 7)
The Bearcats had to hang on tight to beat UConn, which shined a spotlight on a defense that might not be as good as we previously thought. And I now firmly believe Brian Kelly can plug any quarterback on his roster into the lineup and score points. Kelly clearly prepares his quarterbacks better than just about anybody in America.

7. Boise State (9-0, LW: 8)
Boise had another mid-week close call, but I still believe the defense on this team ranks them as a legitimate top 10 team. The Broncos nearly jumped Cincinnati in my poll this week.

8. Pittsburgh (8-1, LW: 11)
The next time I hear Pitt mentioned in the national conversation will be the first. Right now, the gap in the Big East between Cincinnati and Pitt is razor thin. Bill Stull and Dion Lewis have the offense humming, and the defense - a Wannstedt specialty - is coming together nicely as well. Don't be surprised if the Panthers end up with the Big East's BCS bowl bid.

9. Oregon (7-2, LW: 9)
Looks like Oregon isn't what everybody thought they were. I kept having flashbacks to that opening night game where they looked like a bottom ten team (not a top ten team) against Boise State, which prevented me from raving about this team as much as everybody else did.

10. USC (7-2, LW: 12)
The Trojans looked absolutely average in defeating Arizona State on the road Saturday night. Maybe Oregon's big win wasn't as big as it first seemed.

11. Ohio State (8-2, LW: 14)
12. LSU (7-2, LW: 10)
13. Virginia Tech (6-3, LW: 15)
14. Miami (7-2, LW: 16)
15. Iowa (9-1, LW: 5)
16. Penn State (8-2, LW: 13)
17. Arizona (6-2, LW: 19)
18. Utah (8-1, LW: 20)
19. Oregon State (6-3, LW: 24)
20. Houston (8-1, LW: 22)
21. Oklahoma State (7-2, LW: 23)
22. South Florida (6-2, LW: 21)
23. Stanford (6-3, LW: NR)
24. Tennessee (5-4, LW: NR)
25. BYU (7-2, LW: NR)

Just missed the cut:
Wisconsin, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Clemson

Pac-10 Preview

Projected Records & Standings

1. USC                10-2  (8-1)
2. CALIFORNIA         10-2  (7-2)
3. OREGON              8-4  (6-3)
4. ARIZONA STATE       8-4  (6-3)
5. OREGON STATE        8-4  (5-4)
6. STANFORD            7-5  (5-4)
7. ARIZONA             6-6  (3-6)
8. UCLA                4-8  (3-6)
9. WASHINGTON          4-8  (3-6)
10.WASHINGTON STATE    1-11 (0-9)

Champion: USC
Is there really anybody else you can pick to win the Pac-10? Even though Cal looks to have a good team and might even beat USC this season, and USC is as inexperienced on defense as they have ever been, you still have to give the Trojans the nod. Until Pete Carroll proves otherwise, he’s the coach to beat in the Pac-10. I’ll even go so far as to say the offense might get better in 2009. I never really liked John David Booty or Matt Sanchez at the quarterback spot – they seemed to miss out on a lot of big play opportunities with inaccurate throws down the field. If new quarterback Aaron Corp has better touch on the deep ball, look out.

Question the Hype: UCLA
There’s not much that angers me more than hearing UCLA fans blame their pitiful 2008 season (4-8) on former head coach Karl Dorrell. Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t the Bruins winning more than four games a season when Dorrell was coaching? I hear the “poor recruiting” card played on Dorrell a lot, and I just don’t buy it. The guy won games with his players (he beat USC just two seasons ago), and Neuheisel didn’t – it’s that simple.

So why is UCLA widely expected to make dramatic improvements in 2009? They have the same porous offensive line blocking for the same running backs and an even more inexperienced quarterback. More importantly, though, a defense that was the only bright spot on the team a year ago lost their coordinator when DeWayne Walker left to take over as head coach at New Mexico State. Walker was a great DC and I expect the Bruins to take a step back on defense without him, even though several playmakers return on that side of the ball.

Could Surprise: ARIZONA STATE
Arizona loses their quarterback, top receiver, and most talented running back. They also have had some of the worst offensive line play in the Pac-10 over the past two seasons. So why do I expect the Sun Devils to step up in 2009? Well the defense has the makings to be one of the best in the conference. The top tackler (LB Mike Nixon), sack leader (DE Dexter Davis), and interception leader (Nixon) all return. Additionally, four starters return on the offensive line and Danny Sullivan is a big-armed quarterback who could make Dennis Erickson’s offense hum if he can adjust to the starting role.

If that’s not enough, get this stat: since 2002, Arizona State has finished ranked in the top 25 every season in which they were unranked in the preseason. The Sun Devils aren't ranked anywhere near the top 25 so far this preseason.

Bo Jackson Trophy Candidates:
Top 3:
RB-Jahvid Best, California
RB-Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State
RB-LeGarrette Blount, Oregon

Ten to Watch:
QB-Aaron Corp/Matt Barkley, USC
RB-Toby Gerhart, Stanford
WR-D’Andre Goodwin, Washington
TE-Rob Gronkowski, Arizona
QB-Jake Locker, Washington
QB-Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon
RB-James Montgomery, Washington State
C-Kris O’Dowd, USC
WR-James Rodgers, Oregon State
QB-Matt Scott, Arizona
WR-Damien Williams, USC

Herzlich Trophy Candidates:
Top 3:
DT-Brian Price, UCLA
CB-Syd’Quan Thompson, California
LB-Mike Nixon, Arizona State

Ten to Watch:
LB-Reggie Carter, UCLA
DE-Dexter Davis, Arizona State
DE-Everson Griffen, USC
DT-Lawrence Guy, Arizona State
LB-Keaton Kristick, Oregon State
FS-Taylor Mays, USC
DE-Daniel Te’O-Nesheim, Washington
CB-Walter Thurmond, Oregon
CB-Trevin Wade, Arizona
CB-Alterraun Verner, UCLA

J.Pike's Ballot: Gold Wrenches

I chose to hand out five Gold Wrenches this season. Pikes Picks awards Gold Wrenches for outstanding play in the trenches, and all five of these groups played huge roles in determining the outcomes of their teams' games.

Alabama Offensive Line
starters: Antoine Caldwell, Drew Davis, Marlon Davis, Mike Johnson, Andre Smith
reserves: John Michael Boswell, Brian Motley, David Ross

Texas Defensive Line
starters: Lamarr Houston, Henry Melton, Roy Miller, Brian Orakpo
reserves: Ben Alexander, Sam Acho, Eddie Jones, Aaron Lewis

USC Defensive Line
starters: Clay Mathews, Fili Moala, Kyle Moore, Christian Tupou
reserves: Armond Armstead, Jurrell Casey, Everson Griffen, Averell Spicer

Oklahoma Offensive Line
starters: Jon Cooper, Phil Loadholt, Duke Robinson, Brandon Walker, Trent Williams
reserves: Cory Brandon, Branndon Braxton, Brian Simmons

Penn State Defensive Line
starters: Josh Gaines, Aaron Maybin, Jared Odrick, Ollie Ogbu
reserves: Maurice Evans, Abe Koroma

JP25 - Final 2008 Top 25

This was one of the most difficult set of rankings I've ever had the pleasure of filling out. It is the final poll of the 2008 season, but more importantly, I'll have a hand in crowning the first official Pikes Picks National Champion.

In my mind, the top four teams (Florida, Texas, Utah, USC) could all beat each other on any given day. So I tried to look at each of their seasons as a whole and give the top spot to the most deserving candidate.

I considered Texas to be the best team throughout most of the latter part of the season, and I voted them number one in my final regular season poll. The Longhorns beat Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, but weren't National Championship-sharp throughout most of the game. However, they showed the heart and the ability to answer in the clutch that led me to believe they could beat any other team in the country prior to bowl season.

Florida won the BCS National Title game, but we all know (now) their opponent was a sham. Worse still, their opponent abandoned the game plan that got them to the game in the first place and then quit in the fourth quarter, robbing all of us from truly judging just how good Florida is. I still think the Gators have flaws in terms of the Xs and Os (especially on offense), but I really admire the passion with which they play in all three phases of the game.

USC obviously has the hype on their side. The Trojans blasted a Penn State team I held in high regard in the Rose Bowl, which gives them high marks in the "what have you done for me lately" category. They are also a fantastically talented team with the ability to shut down any offense they face. However, I don't feel like USC played at as high a level from week to week during the season as Texas and Florida did, and for that I discarded them from the #1 discussion.

Utah is the wild card. Thanks to the Mountain West Conference's terrible television contract it was difficult to see much of Utah this season. However, the Utes finished as the only undefeated team, and, in my opinion, played a strong enough schedule that they should be considered for the top spot. They played Michigan in the Big House to open the season (who knew how bad a season the Wolverines would be?), beat Oregon State the week after the Beavers knocked off mighty USC, and finished the season by beating three top 25 teams (TCU, BYU, Alabama) in their final four games. That's a tougher schedule than at least half the teams in BCS conferences had to play this season. Above all though, from what I DID see from the Utes, I like the way they play football.

After considering all the facts, here are my final rankings for 2008:

1. Florida	3	13-1
2. Texas	1	12-1
3. Utah	7	13-0
4. USC	5	12-1
5. Oklahoma	2	12-2
6. Alabama	4	12-2
7. Penn State	6	11-2
8. TCU	11	11-2
9. Ohio State	9	10-3
10. Georgia	15	10-3
11. Texas Tech	8	11-2
12. Boise State	12	12-1
13. Oregon	19	10-3
14. Virginia Tech	13	10-4
15. Oklahoma State	10	9-4
16. Oregon State	24	9-4
17. Cincinnati	16	11-3
18. California	17	9-4
19. Michigan State	20	9-4
20. Ole Miss	23	9-4
21. Pittsburgh	21	9-4
22. Missouri	22	10-4
23. West Virginia	--	9-4
24. Nebraska	25	9-4
25. Georgia Tech	14	9-4

Others Receiving Consideration:
Boston College (9-5), Florida State (9-4), LSU (8-5), Maryland (8-5), North Carolina (8-5), BYU (10-3), Northwestern (9-4), Iowa (9-4), Kansas (8-5), Rice (10-3)

Dropped Out:
Boston College (18)

Arrington Trophy Finalists

LaVAR ARRINGTON TROPHY

The Arrington Trophy is a Pikes Picks award handed out annually to the best defensive player in the nation. It is named after former Penn State linebacker LaVar Arrington for his menacing defensive presence. Arrington had one of the most memorable moments in college football over the last decade when he made his now-famous "LaVar Leap" to stop Illinois on 4th down [LINK].

There were so many great offenses in college football this year that it's easy to forget about all the great players on the defensive side of the ball. I had a hard time narrowing my list down to eight finalists (sorry Sen'Derrick Marks), but here they are.

J.Pike's Finalists

ERIC BERRY
(Sophomore S, Tennessee)
Key Stats
72 tackles;
7 interceptions (2 returned for touchdown);
6 passes broken up;
3 sacks;
8.5 tackles for loss;
Eric Berry is so impressive that he continually stood out as one of the best players in the SEC despite playing for one of the worst teams in the conference. He defines the term "playmaker".

BRANDON GRAHAM
(Junior DE, Michigan)
Key Stats
46 tackles;
10 sacks;
20 tackles for loss;
2 forced fumbles;
Much like Berry, Graham took over games at times despite playing for a terrible team. There were several great defensive ends in the Big Ten this sesason, but Graham stands out from the pack because of his consistency.

MARK HERZLICH
(Junior LB, Boston College)
Key Stats
105 tackles (leads the team);
3 sacks;
11 tackles for loss;
6 interceptions (2 returned for touchdown);
7 passes broken up;
2 forced fumbles, 2 fumbles recovered;
Herzlich made his living around the ball in 2008. No matter where the play went, Herzlich was there. He led the Eagles with a remarkable 6 interceptions, but he also made plays behind the line of scrimmage. It didn't stop there - Herzlich was a terror on special teams as well!

PERIA JERRY
(Senior DT, Ole Miss)
Key Stats
47 tackles;
6 sacks;
17 tackles for loss;
3 QB pressures;
2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery;
Jerry dominated the line of scrimmage in SEC play, which is not an easy feat. He managed an incredible 17 tackles for loss from a position usually limited to tangling up blockers so other players can make the tackle.

RASHAD JOHNSON
(Senior S, Alabama)
Key Stats
82 tackles (2nd on team);
5 interceptions (2 returned for touchdown);
11 passes broken up;
1 sack, 5 tackles for loss;
1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery;
Johnson was the standout player on a standout Alabama defense in 2008. Whenever the Tide needed a big play, Johnson was there to make it. Not bad for a former walk on.

REY MAUALUGA
(Senior LB, USC)
Key Stats
73 tackles (leads the team);
2.5 tackles for loss;
2 interceptions (one returned for touchdown);
3 passes broken up;
Maualuga was the vocal and emotional leader on one of the best defenses in America. He set the tone and led the way for the Trojans, who held all but two opponents to 10 points or less.

BRIAN ORAKPO
(Senior DE, Texas)
Key Stats
40 tackles;
10.5 sacks;
18 takles for loss;
4 forced fumbes;
27 QB pressures;
2 passes broken up;
Orakpo is an impressive physical specimen at defensive end for the Lonhorns. His size/speed combination is unmatched in college football, and it allowed him to pile up double digits in sacks and live in opponents' backfields all season long. He dominated Oklahoma's All American left tackle Phil Loadholt back in October to the tune of 2 sacks and 4 tackles for loss.

ALPHONSO SMITH
(Senior CB, Wake Forest)
Key Stats
36 tackles;
6 interceptions;
13 passes broken up;
2.5 tackles for loss;
1 blocked punt;
20 career interceptions;
You'd think offenses would stop throwing Smith's way after he collected 14 interceptions over his first three years at Wake. But Smith kept finding ways to make plays and pick off passes even with game plans designed to go as far away from him as possible.

WEEK FIFTEEN - Preview

#19 Pitt (8-3) at UConn (7-4)
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
Pittsburgh seems to be finding their stride of late, but winning in Storrs, Connecticut is never easy. This matchup features two of the best running backs in the Big East Conference in Pitt's LeSean McCoy and UConn's Donald Brown. I like UConn to upset the ever-underachieving Panthers here on the shoulders of their defense and Brown's running.
J.Pike's Pick: UConn 27, Pitt 24

Army (3-8) vs Navy (7-4)
@ Philadelphia, PA
(Saturday, 11 am, CBS)
Sure, Navy has won six games in a row by a commanding average score of 40-12; and the records look to be lopsided yet again in 2008. But since Stan Brock called out his team early this season, the Cadets have been playing a lot better. This game also happens to feature the bottom two ranked passing attacks in Division 1A. The two teams combined average a paltry 109.2 yards per game through the air; both have played a full game in the 2008 season without completing a pass; and both teams have attempted fewer than five passes in a game four times. Don't be surprised if you don't see a single pass thrown today. What that means is that this game will come down to who wants it more. Army has been blown out six years in a row, and even though it looks on paper like they'll get blown out again, I think this is the year they break the streak.
J.Pike's Pick: Army 20, Navy 17

Washington (0-11) at #24 California (7-4)
(Saturday, 2 pm, FSN)
Cal shouldn't have any problems putting the capper on Washington's winless season.
J.Pike's Pick: California 42, Washington 12

#6 USC (10-1), at UCLA (4-7)
(Saturday, 3:30 pm, ABC)
I really wish people would quit blaming the Bruins awful season on Karl Dorrell. For one thing, he's not the coach anymore, and secondly, at least he made it to a bowl game with this team last year. UCLA isn't bad because Karl Dorrell "couldn't recruit", they are bad because they ran a perfectly good coach out of town to hire that dirtbag Rick Neuheisel. Have fun going 4-8 for the next three years, Bruins.
J.Pike's Pick: USC 36, UCLA 6

#21 Missouri (9-3) vs #3 Oklahoma (11-1)
@ St. Louis, MO
(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
I'd like to point out that I didn't include this game in the writeup for the conference championship games because I don't recognize this as a conference championship game. It's hard for me to understand how the winner of this game can be considered the Big XII Champ when there is team sitting at home that beat both of these teams during the regular season, and has an equal or better record than both of them. So call me a hater if you must, but I'm considering this just another regular season Big XII matchup and handing the de-facto Big XII title to Texas, no matter what the outcome here is.
J.Pike's Pick: I hope it snows.

#11 Cincinnati (10-2) at Hawaii (7-5)
(Saturday, 10:30 pm, ESPN 2)
Big East champion Cincinnati has a BCS bowl berth locked up and a Heisman hopeful at quarterback, but they are no lock to win on the island. The Warriors had a rough start to the season but they have finally settled on a quarterback. Junior Greg Alexander has started the last five games and played well, leading the team to a 4-1 record over that stretch. But Cincinnati has secret weapon Tony Pike in the shotgun. Pike will be able to lead a late Bearcat touchdown drive to win the game if necessary.
J.Pike's Pick: Cincinnati 27, Hawaii 25

WEEK FOURTEEN - Top 25 Preview (Part II)

You know there is going to be a shakeup somewhere this week. The holidays seem to bring out the worst in top ranked teams, and if last year is any indication, the schools that now seem most likely to play for the National Title game won't even be in the picture by Sunday.

Two schools in the thick of the national title picture must hit the road to face ranked opponents - could disaster strike there? Who is safe? Who is going to fall? Here is Pikes Picks' guide to the top ranked schools most likely to lose this weekend. Keep in mind though, chaos rules this time of year, so these are only our best guesses.

Texas A&M (4-7) at #2 Texas (10-1)
(Thursday, 7 pm, ESPN)
Chance of Shakeup: 5%
A&M has won the last two meetings, but this is a different year. Texas has only really played one bad half all season, and the Aggies are struggling. Mike Sherman didn't inherit a lot of talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Expect Colt McCoy and the Longhorns to light up the scoreboard early as they cruise to a quick 21-0 lead in the first quarter. Brian Orakpo is back from injury and looking to hit double figures in sacks. Knowing Will Muschamp will be around for a while will certainly energize the rest of the defense and they'll shut down the Aggies.
J.Pike's Pick: Texas 48, Texas A&M 13
H.Simons' Pick: Texas 35, Texas A&M 14

Notre Dame (6-5) at #5 USC (9-1)
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN)
Chance of Shakeup: 5%
As it turns out, Charlie Weis doesn't give Notre Dame a "schematic advantage" over everybody they face. In fact, Notre Dame holds very little advantage over even the least imposing opponents - other than in the arrogance department. USC is looking to stay alive in the BCS race, and this should be nothing more than a scrimmage. Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen has yet to show any improvement as he continues to throw ill-advised passes that lead to interceptions. USC's imposing defense will have a field day forcing turnovers. This one will be over early.
J.Pike's Pick: USC 45, Notre Dame 12

#4 Florida (10-1) at #20 Florida State (8-3)
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
Chance of Shakeup: 25%
Florida has built up some momentum down the stretch, but did the detour against The Citadel last weekend knock them off course? I know the Gators took care of business early, but did they lose their feel for playing actual opponents in the process? Florida State is improving, and the defense will slow down the Gators overrated offense. However, the speed on the Gator defense is unmatched anywhere in the country. Brandon Spikes and company will make Christian Ponder ponder his decision to attend Florida State University. Look for Florida's defense and special teams to combine to score as many points as either offense in this game.
J.Pike's Pick: Florida 34, Florida State 17

#3 Oklahoma (10-1) at #11 Oklahoma State (9-2)
(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
Chance of Shakeup: 35%
Bedlam. Oklahoma State would love nothing more than to ruin the Sooners dreams of another National Title game appearance. They have more tools to accomplish the feat than Texas Tech did, too, but is that really saying much? Running back Kendall Hunter and tight end Brandon Pettigrew are two dynamic weapons that can mix things up against an Oklahoma defense that will surely be playing with inflated egos after their dominating performance against the one-dimensional Red Raiders. For Oklahoma State to pull the upset, they are going to have to handle their emotions, get Hunter going on the ground early, and hit Pettigrew or receiver Dez Bryant deep for a big play or two. It is all possible, but I'm picking the Sooners.
J.Pike's Pick: Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma State 27

Baylor (4-7) at #7 Texas Tech (10-1)
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, Versus)
Chance of Shakeup: 40%
Texas Tech is finished, and they still need two more losses to fill the "Mike Leach Quota" for the year. Against Oklahoma last week, Leach reverted to his old self by going for it on fourth down twice in the early going, essentially assuring that his team would be blown out of the building. Now one of Leach's top proteges comes to town with a hot shot freshman quartebrack named Robert Griffin and all the knowledge necessary to land another knockout punch on the reeling Red Raiders.
J.Pike's Pick: Baylor 41, Texas Tech 35

Auburn (5-6) at #1 Alabama (11-0)
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
Chance of Shakeup: 50%
Auburn has had a terrible season, but they aren't nearly as bad as their record would lead you to believe. The defense is actually quite good. They rank 10th nationally in points allowed, giving up only 16.4 per game. Believe me - when Sen'Derrick Marks wants to track you down, he'll get you. Marks should be healthy for the Iron Bowl after sitting out the last two games with an ankle injury. Alabama has proven to be inconsistent offensively all year, so Marks and pass rusher Antonio Coleman could make a big difference. The player I expect to make the biggest difference though is a player former offensive coordinator Tony Franklin never gave a chance - quarterback Kodi Burns. Burns has been getting better every week since Franklin got fired. His athleticism gives the offense a dimension the Tigers never had under Chris Todd. Burns is also much more confident in the pocket than Todd, which means he'll make fewer stupid mistakes than Todd did. In a rivalry game that is always hard fought and low scoring, I look for Kodi Burns to make the difference with his improvisation skills. Auburn salvages their season with a huge upset win.
J.Pike's Pick: Auburn 17, Alabama 13

JP25 Update

In a week that featured virtually no upsets (other than in ACC country), there is little reason to shake up my top 25. Alabama took care of business against pesky Mississippi State while Texas and Florida proved they are both deserving title game contestants should Texas Tech or the Crimson Tide falter.

USC finally showed a little heart in the second half against Stanford. After sleepwalking through the past three seasons, the Trojans finally looked like they actually cared about winning a game rather than padding their NFL resumes. I still don't think they are a top five team, but the fact that they are playing with a fire now makes them dangerous.

Speaking of the Pac-10, why haven't I ranked Oregon State until now? That's a pretty good team.

Is anybody going to step up and take control of the ACC? The frontrunners in that conference are dropping like flies, only to re-emerge two or three weeks later. Is North Carolina the top dog? Is it Maryland? Miami? Boston College, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech and even Virginia and Wake Forest all still have a chance to win the conference. And we're getting toward the end of November now!

How weird is it that one of the three teams completely out of the running in the ACC race is Clemson? In the preseason it looked like Clemson was head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. I guess that's why they play the games. That's also probably part of the reason Tommy Bowden isn't patrolling the sideline any more.

Top 25 (last week, record)
1. Texas Tech (1, 10-0)
2. Alabama (2, 11-0)
3. Texas (3, 10-1)
4. Florida (4, 9-1)
5. Oklahoma (5, 9-1)
6. USC (7, 9-1)
7. Penn State (6, 10-1)
8. Georgia (8, 9-2)
9. Ohio State (9, 9-2)
10. Utah (10, 11-0)
11. Oklahoma State (11, 9-2)
12. Boise State (12, 10-0)
13. Missouri (14, 9-2)
14. Oregon State (NR, 7-3)
15. Michigan State (18, 9-2)
16. TCU (17, 9-2)
17. Pittsburgh (22, 7-2)
18. Maryland (NR, 7-3)
19. North Carolina (15, 7-3)
20. Miami (NR, 7-3)
21. LSU (13, 7-3)
22. Georgia Tech (19, 7-3)
23. Boston College (23, 7-3)
24. Oregon (24, 8-3)
25. Cincinnati (25, 8-2)

Dropped Out: California (16), Florida State (20), Virginia Tech (21)

Just Missed the Cut: Ball State (10-0), Virginia Tech (6-4), BYU (10-1), California (6-4), Nebraska (7-4), Florida State (7-3), West Virginia (6-3), Northwestern (8-3), Iowa (7-4)

WEEK TWELVE - Top 25 Preview (Part II: Top 10)

#1 Texas Tech is IDLE

Mississippi State @ #2 Alabama
(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)
This game comes down to whether or not Alabama shows up. The fact that the Crimson Tide have lost two in a row to the Croomdawgs means Nick Saban didn’t have to work too hard to get his team’s attention. It will probably still be a hard fought, low scoring game, but I don’t expect Bama to have too much trouble dismissing Mississippi State.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 22, Mississippi State 10

#3 Texas @ Kansas
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
Simply put, this isn’t the same Kansas team that won a BCS bowl game last year. The Jayhawks definitely miss defensive coordinator Bill Young, who took over the DC job at Miami in the offseason. Kansas is giving up a Big XII worst 276.3 passing yards per game, which means Texas quarterback Colt McCoy should be in for yet another big day. The Longhorns will put this one away early and erase all the recent memories of photo finishes in Lawrence.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 42, Kansas 24

South Carolina @ #4 Florida
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
I’ll be honest with you, I have no idea what to expect from this Florida team on a week to week basis. Urban Meyer’s squad has as much athleticism as any team in the nation, but they seem to rely on their speed more than on Xs and Os. That leaves the door open for any opponent they face to sneak out of town with a win (see Ole Miss earlier this season). South Carolina brings a solid defense to The Swamp, highlighted by speedy defensive end Eric Norwood and tackling machine Emanuel Cook (if Cook ever misses a tackle, let me know). But the Gamecock offense is anything but consistent. Steve Spurrier keeps going back and forth between freshman Stephen Garcia and error prone (but eligible) Chris Smelley, and that leads to drastic ebbs in the cohesiveness of the offense. I would say Garcia should be the guy, but I have a feeling Smelley might come up big in this game. South Carolina will keep it close, but I’ll give Florida the nod.
J.Pike’s Pick: Florida 24, South Carolina 18

Indiana @ #5 Penn State
(Saturday, 11 am, Big Ten Network)
After getting knocked out of the national title picture with a loss to Iowa last week, you might think the Nittany Lions would pack it in for the season. But the senior leadership on this team won’t let that happen. Quarterback Darryl Clark has been inconsistent of late, but facing the Big Ten’s worst pass defense should allow him and his three senior receivers to get back on track.
J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 37, Indiana 13

#6 Utah @ San Diego State
(Saturday, 7 pm, The Mtn.)
The clutch comeback win at home over TCU last Thursday night was huge. Now the Utes get to stretch their legs a little bit and get some backups some valuable game experience because San Diego State doesn’t have a chance to compete in this one. Utah was held to 13 points against the stingy Frog defense, but Brian Johnson and company should have no problem putting points on an Aztec defense that has given up at least 35 points in each of the last six games.
J.Pike’s Pick: Utah 44, San Diego State 7

#7 Oklahoma is IDLE

#8 USC @ Stanford
(Saturday, 6 pm, Versus)
I’ve been calling for it for weeks, so here it is: Stanford will upset USC. Again. I know nobody has forgotten about last season when Jim Harbaugh’s troops marched into the Coleseum and emerged victorious, despite being 42 point underdogs. How did they do it? They played scrappy defense, collecting four sacks and forcing five turnovers. Well, fast forward a year and Stanford is now leading the Pac-10 in sacks. They’ll get to Mark Sanchez and force him to make decisions on the run, which means USC will struggle to score. That opens the door for the surprisingly physical Stanford offense to ride Toby Gerhart and the Pac-10’s second ranked rushing attack to victory. USC has been playing outstanding defense of late, but they haven’t really faced a real challenge during that stretch. Oregon State proved that if you aren’t scared of USC, and you come out and punch them in the mouth, the Trojans will back down. Because there’s no use risking an NFL career for a meaningless college game …
J.Pike’s Pick: Stanford 20, USC 18

#9 Georgia @ Auburn
(Saturday, 11:30 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
My, how the mighty have fallen. Before the season started I circled this game as one of the top five games to watch this year. Auburn was a preseason top 10 team and Georgia started the year at the very top of the polls. Now Georgia is struggling to maintain legitimacy at 8-2 while Auburn wallows in the pit of the SEC at 5-5. This game could be ugly. Auburn is only averaging 13.3 points per game in SEC play, but they can play a little defense when their hearts are in it. Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno’s heart is always in it, and I expect him to carry the Bulldogs this afternoon.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, Auburn 12

#10 Boise State @ Idaho
(Saturday, 4 pm)
It’s a Potato State showdown! Is Boise State ever going to play anybody again? Idaho is one of the worst teams in Division 1A, and there will probably be more Boise fans at the game than Vandals. Boise makes French fries out of Idaho and rolls to 10-0.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 38, Idaho 6

WEEK TWELVE - Preview

Tulane (-5) over UAB
Tulane running back Andre Anderson must be licking his chops. UAB allowed Southern Miss to put 70 points on the board the last time they took the field, and that included a big performance by USM on the ground (463 rushing yards, 4 players over 80 rushing yards). Anderson averages a Conference USA best 123.4 rushing yards per game and he’ll look to improve on that number. I like UAB quarterback Joe Webb, but he simply doesn’t have enough help to keep this game close.

Nebraska (-6½) over Kansas State
The Blackshirts are back! As a result, the Big Red defense will play their best game of the season against the lifeless Wildcats.

Stanford (+22½) over USC
USC has been playing great defense lately, allowing a paltry 13 points over the last five games. That doesn’t mean the Trojans have been pounding people though - quite the contrary as a matter of fact. Disregarding the games against Washington and Washington State (who hasn’t beaten up on those two this year?), USC’s margin of victory in Pac-10 play is an underwhelming 15 points per game. Considering Stanford was able to pull the upset last year in the Coliseum, I have a feeling this game will go down to the wire.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Rutgers (+7½) over South Florida
Texas (-13) over Kansas
New Mexico State (+15) over Fresno State
Oklahoma State (-17½) over Colorado
Utah (-28) over San Diego State
North Carolina (-2½) over Maryland
Texas A&M (+8) over Baylor

WEEK ELEVEN - Top 25 Preview (Part II: Top 10)

#1-t Alabama @ #21 LSU

(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
Nick Saban travels to Baton Rouge, where he won a national championship just five years ago. Les Miles won a championship last year, but his Tigers have taken a step back this year. Without Bo Pelini to run the defense, LSU gave up 50+ points to both Florida and Georgia. LSU has some talent on the D-Line, but Knowshon Moreno ran wild on the Tigers. That means the Crimson Tide can do what they do best and hammer Glen Coffee and Roy Upchurch behind that massive offensive line. That will take the pressure off John Parker Wilson who will be able to make a couple plays to blossoming wideout Julio Jones. The Tide stays unbeaten.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 25, LSU 17

#1-t Penn State @ Iowa
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN)
Iowa has been the trendy upset pick this week. Unfortunately if you have seen either team play at all you’d know that Penn State will win this game without much difficulty. Iowa has had to rely solely on their tailback Shonn Greene because of the revolving door at quarterback. Greene is a solid back (139.7 yards per game), but Penn State’s defense is way too good to allow a one-man offense to score many points. Plus, the Nittany Lions seniors won’t let the team get a big head, and the upset talk will have them more focused than ever. Penn State wins this one going away.
J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 27, Iowa 6

#8 Oklahoma State @ #3 Texas Tech
(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
Texas Tech pulled off a big upset over top ranked Texas a week ago with an excellent performance. But can the Red Raiders get as jacked up for Oklahoma State as they were against Texas? If they can, they’ll stay undefeated. But I think it’s near impossible to get that up for two games in a row, and Oklahoma State has a few more offensive weapons than the Longhorns had to offer. Running back Kendall Hunter is one of the best backs in the Big XII and he’ll have better luck against the Tech front than the Texas running game did. Also look out for tight end Brandon Pettigrew – he’ll have a huge game and end up making the difference. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I like the mental makeup of this Oklahoma State team. Coach Mike Gundy doesn’t let his team get too up or too down, and that will pay big dividends on Saturday night as they go to Lubbock and pull off the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 35

Baylor @ #4 Texas
(Saturday, 11 am, FSN)
This one is worth getting up early for. Getting to see freshman quarterback Robert Griffin go up against Will Muschamp and the Longhorn defense should be a treat. Texas is without the services of stud defensive end Brian Orakpo though, who was injured against Texas Tech. That leaves Roy Miller, Sergio Kindle, and Roddrick Muckelroy to chase after Griffin. Griffin is an excellent player and new head coach Art Briles has this program headed the right direction. After taking Missouri down to the wire last week, the Bears will continue to improve as they make another strong showing in Austin this weekend. Unfortunately Briles doesn’t have enough complementary players yet to beat Texas.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 42, Baylor 24
J.Pike Guarantee: Baylor will make at least one bowl game during Robert Griffin’s career

#5 Florida @ Vanderbilt
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN 2)
The Vanderbilt secondary is good enough to cause the Florida passing game some problems. But the speed of Jeffrey Demps and Percy Harvin out of the backfield will be enough to counter that Vandy advantage. Ever since Bobby Johnson went away from Chris Nickson at quarterback, the Vanderbilt offense has lost the ability to score consistently against SEC defenses. He was a player opposing defenses had to game plan for, and although Mackenzi Adams is a solid player, he doesn’t have that same effect. All of these factors add up to a Gator win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Florida 31, Vanderbilt 13

#6 Oklahoma @ Texas A&M
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
I’m starting to think the jig is up. Oklahoma hasn’t been dominant on defense for a couple years now, and I’m not sure if it’s because of the amount of coaches they have lost from the coaching staff on that side of the ball or if they just don’t have the same caliber of player anymore. Either way, it has become a trend rather than a fluke. So don’t write the Aggies off so quickly in this game. Quarterback Jarrod Johnson is proving week after week that he should have been playing ahead of Stephen McGee all along, and he has the talent to put the A&M offense on his broad shoulders and score 30+ against the Sooners. The problem is Mike Sherman inherited a roster completely void of any defensive talent. Sam Bradford shouldn’t have a problem putting points on the board against the woeful Aggie defense, but again – don’t be surprised if the outcome is still in doubt deep into the third quarter.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma 47, Texas A&M 34

#17 California @ #7 USC
(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
Oh no, this one could be ugly. Jeff Tedford finally realized his team was better with Kevin Riley at quarterback, but Riley suffered a concussion in the first quarter last week against Oregon. Cal held on to win with Nate Longshore at quarterback, but that was a fluke. If Longshore has to play against USC you can count on him throwing at least two picks and allowing the Trojans to pick up another easy Pac-10 victory. If Riley plays though, give the Bears a shot. Cal running back Jahvid Best is one of the fastest players in the nation and he could give the USC defense fits if he gets any help at all from the passing game.
J.Pike’s Pick: USC 32, California 20
Saturday morning update: Cal QB Kevin Riley will sit out this game with a concussion, which means Nate Longshore will get the start.

#9 Georgia @ Kentucky
(Saturday, 11:30 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
Both of these teams have suffered an alarming number of key injuries this season. That means it will come down to depth, and Georgia wins that battle every time. Oh yeah, there’s also the Knowshon Moreno advantage – Georgia has him and Kentucky doesn’t. This won’t be the prettiest game of the weekend, but Georgia will get back on the right track with a hard fought victory over Rich Brooks’ pesky Wildcats.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 23, Kentucky 10

News & Notes

* After a 17 year career that included a national championship in the 1998 season, Phil Fulmer is stepping down as head coach at the University of Tennessee at the end of the season. Fulmer had great success in his time in Knoxville, where he guided his alma mater to their first national championship in 47 years. But the program hit a lull and his 27-20 record over the last four seasons finally caught up with him.

* In other coaching carousel news, Toledo (2-6) head coach Tom Amstutz announced he will resign at the end of this season as well. Toledo beat Michigan earlier this year, but the Rockets are only 2-6 overall. Amstutz had a successful eight year run in which he went 57-38 overall and guided Toledo to four bowl games and two MAC championship game appearances.

* USC safety Kevin Ellison will probably be out the next 2-4 weeks due to a knee injury suffered in practice last week.

* Oklahoma defensive end Auston English left the Nebraska game early with an apparent leg injury. Head coach Bob Stoops said the pass rush specialist would be out “maybe 3 weeks,” which would include their matchup with Texas Tech on November 22.

* Colorado mighty mite running back Rodney Stewart is likely out for the rest of the season with a broken leg suffered on a horse-collar tackle against Texas A&M. The freshman has been a revelation for the Buffaloes this year, and he was quickly becoming one of my favorite players to watch, so here’s hoping he makes a full recovery.

WEEK TEN - J&BP Top 25 Preview

#1 Texas @ #8 Texas Tech

(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
Since Texas Tech’s last win in this series in 2002, Texas has won by an average score of 48 to 30. These games haven’t been as close as you might think from all the “it’s always tough up there in Lubbock” talk. It’s just Drunk Vince Gill’s clownish offense clouding your memory. Texas is on a roll and the talk of a Texas Tech upset this weekend is just the fuel they need to take the field with a chip on their shoulder in Lubbock. On the field the Longhorns will get it done by actually playing a little defense. Much like the game plan Will Muschamp put together to stifle Missouri’s potent offense, he’ll turn his imposing D-Line loose, send blitzers after Graham Harrell, and hit the quarterback repeatedly until Tech is forced to narrow those wide offensive line splits they are known for. Don’t think for a second Tech’s line will be able to handle Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller – nobody has contained those two all season. The Red Raiders have run the ball a little bit more this year, and that is the X-Factor here. But I haven’t seen enough from Leach’s track record to indicate he’ll actually stick with the run in a big game. Look for Texas to win easily in a relatively low scoring game. Well, low scoring compared to what some are expecting anyway.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 42, Texas Tech 28

Arkansas State @ #2 Alabama
(Saturday, 2 pm, ESPN360.com)
Bama had better be careful here. And no, I’m not joking. Arkansas State has a respectable 4-3 record that includes a win over Texas A&M. Quarterback Corey Leonard and running backs Reggie Arnold and Derek Lawson form an unsung trio in the backfield – all three could make a name for themselves with big games against Alabama. Let’s also not forget this is the same Crimson Tide team that lost a game to Louisiana-Monroe late last season. Nick Saban has an extremely physical football team, but he also has an offense that is limited, especially if you can manage to slow down Glen Coffee and the running game. Arkansas State will show up ready to play, and they WILL give Alabama a game. How long will the Red Wolves hang in there? We’ll find out Saturday.
J.Pike’s Pick: Alabama 20, Arkansas State 17

#3 Penn State is IDLE

#7 Florida vs #4 Georgia (@ Jacksonville, FL)
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
There’s no shortage of motivation in this rivalry. By now I’m sure everyone has re-lived the moment last year when the entire Georgia team ran on the field to celebrate after scoring their first touchdown. I know Urban Meyer and the Florida Gators remember it, so this might be one of those games where the team that can manage their emotions the best and make fewer stupid mistakes in the heat of battle will win. Georgia has committed their fair share of stupid penalties this year, and that could be what does them in if they lose. Florida is known for their speed and explosive offense, and a lot of prognosticators are expecting the Gators to run Georgia off the field in a blowout. But did you know Georgia is actually averaging 20 more yards per game offensively than Florida this year? Keep in mind that is against a much more challenging schedule too. Meyer’s offense seems to be based more around speed than actual Xs & Os. Georgia’s defense can match Florida’s speed, so will Meyer be able to counter the attacking Bulldog defense with a play more creative than “Hey Tim Tebow, fake like you are going to run then throw a jump pass to the tight end”? We’ll see. Georgia also has not-so-secret weapon Knowshon Moreno in the backfield. The sophomore tailback is easily one of the best players in the nation and he runs with a determination that you have to see to fully appreciate him. He’ll be the key to getting Georgia off to a fast start, and he’ll poke and prod the Florida defenders until they start committing stupid penalties. Georgia gets back in the national title discussion with an impressive win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 32, Florida 20

Nebraska @ #5 Oklahoma
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN)
With Bo Pelini in the fold this rivalry will eventually pick up steam again. The problem is, with the Big XII scheduling the way it is, it will never be the event it once was. Nebraska will play Oklahoma this year and next year during the rebuilding process, but the two won’t be scheduled to play in the regular season in 2010 or 2011. So Pelini will have to squeeze some magic out of this series with an inferior roster for the next two years. Don’t think he can’t do it either. Oklahoma is talented, and I’m sure Sam Bradford is licking his chops to go up against one of the more error-prone secondaries in the nation, but the Sooners are prone to mental breakdowns defensively too. They are also gaining a reputation for not showing up in big games late in the season. Bradford might have his way with the secondary early, but I expect Nebraska to adjust and scratch and claw their way into making this a game in the second half.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma 34, Nebraska 21

Washington @ #6 USC
(Saturday, 5:30 pm, FSN)
Here’s another opportunity for USC to put up an impressive score against a bad team. All the national pundits will see the big score and gush about how great the Trojans are and how they are “the most dangerous team in the nation right now.” Go ahead and keep inflating their egos – I can’t wait to see them lose to Stanford again.
J.Pike’s Pick: USC 43, Washington 10

#9 Utah @ New Mexico
(Saturday, 8:30 pm, The Mtn.)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah 23

Iowa State @ #10 Oklahoma State
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
How will the Cowboys respond to the loss to Texas? Some might say the strong showing against the #1 team in the country gave them confidence, that it confirmed their belief they belong in the top ten. But don’t forget the possibility that the Cowboys put their season on the line in that game and got their hearts ripped out with a close loss. Sometimes that’s the recipe for a huge letdown the following week. Judging by the way Oklahoma State handled their big win over Missouri (no big celebration, they simply walked off the field like a team that just did what they were supposed to do), I think Mike Gundy has his team on an even keel - they won’t get too ‘down’ because they never got too ‘up’. So I expect Kendall Hunter and Brandon Pettigrew to get back to rolling up points against the struggling Cyclones.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma State 40, Iowa State 17

#11 Boise State @ New Mexico State
(Saturday, 6 pm, ESPN360.com)
Almost four years ago New Mexico State fired their successful head coach Tony Samuel so they could bring in that clown Hal Mumme. Well, a mere 11 wins later that move is looking even more ridiculous than it looked at the time. The Aggies are coming off a loss to lifeless Idaho for goodness sake! I can only imagine how easily Boise State will roll over Mumme and his towel in Las Cruces this weekend.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 34, New Mexico State 13

#12 Ohio State is IDLE

#13 TCU @ UNLV
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 33, UNLV 16

#14 Tulsa @ Arkansas
(Saturday, 1 pm, ESPN360.com)
This won’t be a pretty football game. Gus Malzahn’s Tulsa offense is averaging 605.6 yards and 55.6 points per game this year. Malzahn happens to be the former offensive coordinator at Arkansas and he played a role in the firestorm that eventually led to the ousting of Houston Nutt. He’ll be looking to show the fans in Fayetteville what his offense can do. But Arkansas still has SEC athletes and with home field advantage and running back Michael Smith they are capable of pulling the upset. I’m not sure the Hog defense, which appears to be frightened by the prospect of tackling at times, is up to the challenge of slowing down the Golden Hurricane attack.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 38, Arkansas 34

#15 Missouri @ Baylor
(Saturday, 2 pm)
I like the job Art Briles has done at Baylor so far. He has the Bears playing with more fire than I have seen out of that program in quite a while. A big reason for that has been the play of their hugely talented quarterback Robert Griffin. With Griffin at the helm, I guarantee you Baylor makes a bowl game in the near future. But this year is year one on the learning curve. Missouri and Chase Daniel are way ahead of that, and they won’t hesitate to run it up on the upstart Bears. Jeremy Maclin flat out has too much speed to not reach the end zone at least three times on Saturday.
J.Pike’s Pick: Missouri 51, Baylor 21

Wisconsin @ #16 Michigan State
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN)
The season is quickly getting away from Wisconsin. Not only are the Badgers struggling to get decent play out of the quarterback spot, they just lost their best offensive weapon, tight end Travis Beckum, for the season thanks to a knee injury. And now they have to travel to face one of the best running backs in the nation. Michigan State’s Javon Ringer is the definition of a workhorse: he averages over 33 carries per game and has piled up 1,373 yards and 16 touchdowns so far this season. Even if Wisconsin manages to slow him down, I’m not sure they’ll be able to put many points on the board.
J.Pike’s Pick: Michigan State 23, Wisconsin 17

#17 Florida State @ Georgia Tech
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC/ESPN)
Florida State has rallied around freshman quarterback Christian Ponder and quietly climbed to a 6-1 record. I’m not sure about Ponder though. He’s the kind of quarterback that makes stupid plays for the majority of the game and then stumbles his way into a big play in a key situation. I’m not sure how much of it is skill and how much of it is luck, but my impression from watching him is that these clutch plays aren’t going to be there for him against better competition. Georgia Tech has a pretty good defense and they are led up front by end Michael Johnson and tackle Vance Walker. Those two will make it difficult for Ponder to get in a rhythm. Offensively, Georgia Tech will lull a talented Seminole defense to sleep with their triple option, and eventually bust a long run late to set up the game winning score.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia Tech 18, Florida State 16

Tulane @ #18 LSU
(Saturday, 7 pm, ESPN360.com)
It’s time for the annual battle for Louisiana. It’s also time for LSU to take out some frustrations after giving up 50 points for the second time this season a week ago.
J.Pike’s Pick: LSU 34, Tulane 7

Northwestern @ #19 Minnesota
(Saturday, 11 am, ESPN 2)
A season that started out so promising for Northwestern is now falling apart. The Wildcats lost two of their last three games, and must now face top 25 teams Minnesota and Ohio State. Injuries have been the main factor in the sudden dropoff, with quarterback C.J. Bacher and running back Tyrell Sutton each suffering season ending injuries in October. If you tune in to this game, check out Minnesota’s speedy freshman wideout Brandon Green. He broke out with 5 catches for 100 yards a week ago, and showed some excellent speed on a 71-yard reception. He could be a big time player in the Big Ten in the near future.
J.Pike’s Pick: Minnesota 23, Northwestern 16

#20 BYU @ Colorado State
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
See Mountain West Upset Alert [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 34, Colorado State 24

#21 North Carolina is IDLE

#22 Ball State is IDLE

#23 Oregon @ California
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
Jeff Tedford is his own worst enemy. After a strong start to the season with Kevin Riley at quarterback, Tedford decided to give Nate Life-long Spare the job. Once again, Longshore proved he has no mettle and can’t hold up under pressure. His awful play was instrumental in the Bears getting destroyed by Arizona. Tedford went back to Riley at QB and the team responded with an easy win over UCLA. With Riley in the fold, Cal has an excellent shot to beat Oregon, whose pass defense is surprisingly shoddy. This game also features the three best running backs in the Pac-10. Sorry USC – five stars next to your name in high school doesn’t make you a good college running back. Oregon’s LeGarrette Blount has been pounding opponents this season with his physical running style (12 tds), and Jeremiah Johnson has one of the best stiff arms you’ll find. But Cal’s Jahvid Best will be the difference maker. His speed and agility is off the charts, and he’s finally healthy again.
J.Pike’s Pick: California 30, Oregon 28

#24 Maryland is IDLE

Kansas State @ #25 Kansas
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
Here’s a game with shootout potential. Both teams feature potent passing attacks: Kansas quarterback Todd Reesing has Dezmon Briscoe (760 yards, 9 td) and Kerry Meier (63 receptions, 4 td) at his disposal, and Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman likes to find speedy JC transfer Brandon Banks (813 yards, 20.8 yards per reception). Additionally, both defenses were burned repeatedly through the air a week ago: Kansas State gave up 58 points to Oklahoma and Kansas gave up 63 to Texas Tech. Mark Mangino gets the best of Ron Prince in the coaching matchup though.
J.Pike’s Pick: Kansas 38, Kansas State 32

WEEK NINE - Top 25 Preview (Part II: Top 10)

#9 Oklahoma State at #1 Texas
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, ABC)
It’s just another week facing a top 10 opponent for the Texas. This time around it’s Oklahoma State’s turn to take a shot at the top ranked Longhorns. The Cowboys are somewhat of an unknown quantity at this point so this game could go any number of different directions. The only thing I know for certain is that if Texas spots Oklahoma State a three touchdown lead as they have in the three of the last four meetings, the Cowboys won’t be as likely to give it up. But I expect Will Muschamp’s defense to jump on Zac Robinson and Kendall Hunter early, which will allow Colt McCoy and the offense to build a lead for a change. The Cowboys fight hard in Austin, but Texas is just too good right now.
J.Pike’s Pick: Texas 34, Oklahoma State 20

#2 Alabama at Tennessee
(Saturday, 6:45 pm, ESPN)
Two words: Eric Berry.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tennessee 21, Alabama 20

#3 Penn State at #4 Ohio State
(Saturday, 7 pm, ABC)
Spotlight Game of the Week [LINK]
J.Pike’s Pick: Penn State 32, Ohio State 16

#5 Oklahoma at Kansas State
(Saturday, 11:30 am, FSN)
No upset potential here. Kansas State is at home and they have an offense that will probably put some points on the board against OU. But that’s where the Wildcat advantages end. The Sooners are a much better all around team. Losing leading receiver Manuel Johnson for the season will only open the door for freshman Ryan Broyles to become a star.
J.Pike’s Pick: Oklahoma 48, Kansas State 28

#6 Georgia at #12 LSU
(Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS)
LSU hasn’t been very impressive of late. After getting blown out against Florida, the Tigers responded with a flat performance against South Carolina. Georgia hasn’t been all that impressive either, but they have never been a team that blows people out. The injuries have brought the talent level back down to earth, but with a backfield full of playmakers (Knowshon Moreno, Matthew Stafford, and the underrated fullback Brannan Southerland), the Bulldogs are capable of winning every game left on their schedule. Even though this game is in Baton Rouge, I think Georgia shows up on a mission to let everybody know the ‘Dawgs aren’t going away just yet.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 27, LSU 23

#7 Utah is idle

#8 USC at Arizona
(Saturday, 9:15 pm, FSN)
Is this the year Arizona finally gets the best of USC? The way Arizona played last week against Cal you might think so. USC is starting to put it together defensively though, as they have gone 10 quarters without giving up a single point. Combine this with the fact that Arizona is averaging 11.5 points per game against the Trojans in the Mike Stoops era and any hopes for an upset seem a little bit less attainable. The Wildcats will push USC to the fourth quarterback (as they did last season), but Rey Maualuga and the defense will buckle down and deliver a win.
J.Pike’s Pick: USC 31, Arizona 27

Kentucky at #10 Florida
(Saturday, 11:30 am, Raycom/ESPN360.com)
Kentucky usually plays solid defense, but with their top two players on that side of the ball (Myron Pryor and Micah Johnson) hobbled with injuries, Florida’s speed will be too much.
J.Pike’s Pick: Florida 36, Kentucky 13

National Championship Race - One Loss Teams

Since a team with at least one loss has won the national title each of the last two seasons, it’s only logical to take a look at the one-loss teams that are still in position to grab a berth in the BCS Championship Game should the teams ahead of them in the poll falter. Here are the six teams I think have the best chance.

OKLAHOMA (6-1)
Remaining Schedule: @Kansas State, Nebraska, @Texas A&M, Texas Tech, @Oklahoma State, Big XII Championship Game
Chance of winning out: 85%
Chance of playing for the national title: 35%
This is probably the best one-loss team in the nation right now. The Sooners have one of the best quarterbacks in the land in Sam Bradford, and the schedule is more than manageable the rest of the way. If Oklahoma wins out, they’ll only need two of the three teams ahead of them in the poll to lose in order to sneak into the national title game.
J.Pike’s Pick: 11-1, BCS Bowl

GEORGIA (6-1)
Remaining Schedule: @LSU, vsFlorida, @Kentucky, @Auburn, Georgia Tech, SEC Championship Game
Chance of winning out: 20%
Chance of playing for the national title: 15%
Speaking of sneaking around, is there a one-loss team getting less attention right now than Georgia? For a preseason #1 ranked team, there isn’t much hype around the Bulldogs. Sure they have suffered a ton of injuries, especially along both lines, but there are still championship caliber pieces in place. The Dawgs had better get used to hotels because their next four games are all on the road. The next two weeks against LSU and Florida in particular will give Mark Richt’s squad a chance to jump right back into the thick of things – don’t be surprised if they make a statement in one or both of those games.
J.Pike’s Pick: 11-2, SEC Champs, BCS Bowl

USC (5-1)
Remaining Schedule: @Arizona, Washington, California, @Stanford, Notre Dame, @UCLA
Chance of winning out: 70%
Chance of playing for the national title: 25%
We all know the drill by now. USC is talented, no doubt. But don’t let the media fool you into thinking these are the best 22 players in the nation - there’s a reason the Trojans have lost two games each of the last two seasons. The players at USC tend to read their press clippings and buy into the hype. That’s why subpar teams like Stanford and Oregon State are able to knock them off. That’s also why I think somebody else (Arizona this weekend?) will knock them off again this year, driving them out of the national title race for good. Until Pete Carroll can lure leaders like Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush to Los Angeles again, USC will be nothing more than an over-talented, underachieving media darling.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, Pac-10 Champs, BCS Bowl

OHIO STATE (7-1)
Remaining Schedule: Penn State, @Northwestern, @Illinois, Michigan
Chance of winning out: 20%
Chance of playing for the national title: 10%
Nobody wants to hear it, but Ohio State is quietly positioning themselves for yet another run at a berth in the BCS National Championship Game. After debacles in that game each of the last two seasons – not to mention a debacle in Southern California earlier this season – nobody wants to see the Buckeyes in a position to get blown out on a national stage again. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor has taken over the offense and is crafting a new identity for Ohio State. Luckily for all of us he doesn’t have any help in the receiving corps, and the defense is too slow footed to beat Penn State, so Ohio State’s string of title game appearances will end this bowl season.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, BCS Bowl

FLORIDA (5-1)
Remaining Schedule: Kentucky, vsGeorgia, @Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Citadel, @Florida State, SEC Championship Game
Chance of winning out: 25%
Chance of playing for the national title: 10%
I keep going back and forth on Florida. One week I’ll think they have enough speed to beat just about anybody, then the next week I’ll realize Urban Meyer’s offense is just smoke and mirrors with no real running game. The Florida/Georgia game will eliminate one of the two from the national title race for good, but the Gators can’t afford to overlook Kentucky, Vanderbilt, or South Carolina or they’ll get upset again.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, no BCS bowl

LSU (5-1)
Remaining Schedule: Georgia, Tulane, Alabama, Troy, Ole Miss, vsArkansas, SEC Championship Game
Chance of winning out: 10%
Chance of playing for the national title: 2%
The defending national champs suffered a seeming knockout blow two weeks ago when they lost 51-21 to Florida. The Tigers need to win this weekend against injury-riddled Georgia to hang on to any hopes of defending their crown. Alabama also comes calling in early November, so the chances going back to back are slim.
J.Pike’s Pick: 10-2, no BCS bowl