Upeset Alert - Mountain West Edition

The Mountain West Conference has three teams ranked in the J&BP Top 25. This Saturday all three of those teams go on the road to face tough competition, so I’m putting the entire conference on Upset Alert. I predict at least one of the top three (Utah, TCU, BYU) will lose. Here’s a quick preview of the games in order of the likelihood of upset. By the way, if anybody knows what channel “The Mtn.” is, please let me know because for the first time ever I want to tune in to their network.

Utah (8-0) @ New Mexico (4-5)
(Saturday, 8:30 pm, The Mtn.)
Don’t ever count out Rocky Long’s troops. When quarterback Donovan Porterie went down for the season with an injury, the Lobos simply rallied around their potent running game. They are hanging around .500 thanks to the running of Rodney Ferguson. The senior tailback has paced the nation’s 13th ranked rushing attack with 865 yards and 11 touchdowns. Ferguson has his work cut out for him this week because the Utah front seven is one of the best in the Mountain West. Thanks to stars like Paul Kruger, Koa Misi, and Stevenson Sylvester, the Utes have limited opponents to 85.9 rushing yards per game this season (9th nationally). Can they hold up against Ferguson and company? One reason Utah is confident heading into this game is because of the play of their quarterback, Brian Johnson. Johnson has posted solid numbers and displayed impressive leadership skills in leading the Utes to their 8-0 mark. He has been the leading candidate for the Faulk Trophy for the entire season, and I expect him to play like he deserves the award Saturday. The Achilles heel for Utah all season has been their penchant for shooting themselves in the foot. Untimely penalties and turnovers have cropped up, but haven’t yet gotten the best of the Utes. New Mexico is a solid fundamental team that will be able to take advantage of these mistakes. That will get the momentum of the crowd going and give the Lobos an excellent shot at the upset.
J.Pike’s Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah 23

BYU (7-1) @ Colorado State (4-4)
(Saturday, 5 pm, The Mtn.)
Colorado State is looking for their first big win under new head coach Steve Fairchild and a home game against BYU would be the perfect opportunity to get it. If a winless Washington team can come within a blown extra point of taking BYU to overtime, why can’t the Rams do it too? Fairchild is striving for balance offensively with wide receiver Rashaun Greer and running back Gartrell Johnson, but the offensive line isn’t good enough yet for either phase to thrive. Facing an ever-improving BYU front seven that includes standouts David Nixon, Matt Bauman, and Jan Jorgensen doesn’t bode well for that unit. On the other side of the ball, BYU can score points, but they aren’t unstoppable. If you can pressure Max Hall you can knock him out of his rhythm. The problem is that Colorado State is last in the Mountain West with only 6 sacks this season. On emotion alone, the Rams will make this one a game in the second half, but in the end it will be difficult to make clutch stops against the potent BYU offense.
J.Pike’s Pick: BYU 34, Colorado State 24

TCU (8-1) @ UNLV (3-5)
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
When UNLV knocked off Arizona State earlier this season, it looked like the Rebels were finally going to turn the corner under coach Mike Sanford. Now that we are a little deeper into the season it looks like a win over ASU isn’t quite as impressive as it seemed at the time. But with quarterback Omar Clayton the Rebels will always have a chance to win. The problem is he will have to do it against one of the best defenses in the nation. TCU is in the top two nationally in each of the following categories: scoring defense (10.4 points per game), rushing defense (30.2 yards per game), total defense (218.9 yards per game), sacks (35), and turnover margin (+14). On top of all that, TCU has yet to allow a single point in the fourth quarter this season. So Omar Clayton had better watch his back because Jerry Hughes (12 sacks) and Jason Phillips will be coming after him on Saturday. For UNLV to pull the upset, they’ll need to play their best game and hope for one of those annual TCU choke jobs that tend to trip up the Horned Frogs just when they are gaining some national attention.
J.Pike’s Pick: TCU 33, UNLV 16

WEEK NINE - Midweek Games

Auburn @ West Virginia
(Thursday, 6:30 pm, ESPN)
Before the season started this was one of the more intriguing games on the schedule. It looked like it would be a top 10 matchup with national title implications, but now that it’s here all this game has to offer is a couple of the most underachieving teams in the land trying to stay afloat. Auburn has suffered a particularly interesting meltdown that included Tommy Tuberville firing his offensive coordinator a couple weeks ago. West Virginia started 1-2, but quietly fought back to respectability by winning three in a row. If Auburn’s defense shows up the way it was playing earlier this season, the Tigers will have a big advantage over West Virginia’s predictable offense and a hobbled Pat White. But if Auburn gives the same effort they gave in a loss to Arkansas you can consider their season over. I’ll give Team Tuberville the benefit of the doubt one last time.
J.Pike’s Pick: Auburn 25, West Virginia 16

New Mexico @ Air Force
(Thursday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
New Mexico has seemingly been rejuvenated since the loss of their quarterback Donovan Porterie for the season. In fact, the 70-7 thumping they laid on San Diego State last week sent a message to the rest of the Mountain West not to count the Lobos out. But the Falcons consistently make opponents pay for mistakes, and that will be the difference in this game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Air Force 27, New Mexico 24

#14 Boise State @ San Jose State
(Friday, 8 pm, ESPN 2)
If Boise State is going to lose a game this season, this might be the one. San Jose State quarterback Kyle Reed is dynamic enough to take on a Boise State defense that has only allowed more than 7 points in a game once this season. Reed’s combination of accuracy in the passing game and elusiveness in the pocket will provide the biggest test to Boise’s solid secondary so far this year. They’ll have to cover longer than they’re used to and you never know when Reed will tuck it and run. Reed’s counterpart, Kellen Moore has sparked the Broncos this season whenever they needed it. He passed the first big road test of his career with flying colors when he led Boise State to a big win over Oregon in Autzen earlier this year, so I doubt the 20,000 packing Spartan Stadium will affect him much at all. Moore will lead his team to a hard fought victory as Boise State continues their hunt for another BCS Bowl.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 23, San Jose State 17

News & Notes

*Oklahoma defensive tackle DeMarcus Granger is going to be out for at least the next 4-6 weeks. Granger’s foot was injured when he was gang tackled by three Washington offensive linemen in a dirty retaliation attempt [YOUTUBE LINK], and might have to miss the season. Nice job Huskies.

*Texas tight end Blaine Irby will miss the remainder of the season after dislocating his knee against Rice. The injury looked like it could be much more serious (don’t watch the replay if you’re squeamish), so the fact there is no ligament damage is surprising. The offense will miss his playmaking ability because no other tight end on the roster possesses his skills in the passing game.

*South Florida linebacker (and J.Pike Fave) Brouce Mompremier was cleared to return home and will miss at least the next 2 games. He was airlifted to the hospital after a collision with teammate Carlton Williams against Florida International left him motionless on the field.

*The biggest injury update of the week is that Faulk Trophy candidate Dante Love’s football career is probably over. The Ball State wide receiver suffered a cervical spine fracture and a spinal cord injury during the first quarter of Saturday's game against Indiana. Love was injured in a helmet-to-helmet hit that left him briefly unconscious. We wish him all the best in his recovery.

*North Carolina has lost their starting quarterback for at least 6 weeks. T.J. Yates suffered an ankle fracture against Virginia Tech. The injury couldn’t have come at a worse time with a trip to Miami scheduled for this weekend. Mike Paulus and Cameron Sexton will fill in, but don’t bring the same confidence and sturdy leadership to the position Yates does.

*More bad news for Kansas State. Not only do the Wildcats look every bit as bad as they did in 2007 – now starting running back Leon Patton is off the team. Ron Prince kicked the senior off the team after he was accused of child abuse. Patton allegedly shook a little baby.

*Another preseason Faulk Trophy candidate will be out for the rest of the season. New Mexico quarterback Donovan Porterie tore his right ACL and MCL in the first half against Tulsa.

*Virginia coach Al Groh finally kicked quarterback Peter Lalich off the team. Lalich violated his alcohol-related probation by getting caught drinking. He later lied about it to the press proving he’s not the smartest cookie in the jar. Virginia’s woeful season will continue.

WEEK ONE - Under the Radar

TCU

at
New Mexico

(Saturday, 5pm, VS)

TCU has owned Rocky Long’s Lobos since joining the Mountain West. Last season the Frogs played their best game of the season and won by a whopping margin of 37-0.

New Mexico’s hopes of reversing the recent trend ride squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Donovan Porterie and running back Rodney Ferguson. There is no doubt this is one of the best backfield duos in the conference.

Porterie is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. However he played one of the worst games of his career against TCU in 2007. Porterie was hurried all game long by the aggressive Horned Frog defense and the UNM offense managed to pick up only six first downs.

In order to keep the pressure off Porterie, Ferguson will have to step up his game. Expect to see backup Paul Baker in this game if Ferguson’s bruising running style is once again shut down by the aggressive TCU defense. Baker’s speed could be a nice change of pace for the offense.

Solid defensive play has been a staple of the Gary Patterson era. Defensive tackle James Vess is back after sitting out last season due to a suspension. He joins Cody Moore and Kelly Griffin to form the best trio of tackles in the MWC. These three will once again be tasked with shutting down Ferguson.

The TCU offense is nothing to write home about though. Sophomore Andy Dalton has proven to be nothing more than a serviceable quarterback so far in his career. Against the veteran Lobo secondary, which features All-MWC corner DeAndre Wright, expect Dalton to struggle in the passing game.

New Mexico has the home field advantage in this game, as well as the superior offensive skill talent, but TCU has a fine defense that can take the crowd out of the game. Plus Gary Patterson has had Rocky Long’s number, winning the last three matchups by a combined score of 113-49. Porterie will play much better than he did in this game last season, but in the end the TCU defense is just too good.

J.Pikes Pick: TCU 18, New Mexico 13

Thanks to the Helmet Project for the team helmet logos

Best Non-BCS Conference QBs

1. Brian Johnson, Utah

Brian Johnson is the kind of dual threat quarterback a team like Michigan could really use right about now. Johnson's not just a dazzling runner though - he's got a great arm as well. If he can stay healthy for a full season, don't be surprised to see Utah a player in the BCS bowl race.

2. Nate Davis, Ball State
After leading Ball State to their first bowl game in 11 years, Nate Davis is back for only his junior season. After putting up big numbers (3,667 yards, 30 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions), beating Navy and taking Nebraska down to the wire in Lincoln, what will Davis do for an encore? A MAC championship is within reach.

3. Donovan Porterie, New Mexico
While it's true Porterie is still struggling with his consistency, the junior quarterback has one of the bigger upsides of the non-BCS quarterbacks. He's tall (6'3"), athletic, and has a solid arm.

4. Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan
The Chippewas were wildly inconsistent in 2007, but LeFevour was far from it. He literally carried the offense both through the air (3,652 yards, 27 tds) and on the ground (1,122 yards, 19 tds).

5. (tie) Rusty Smith, Florida Atlantic / Max Hall, BYU

Others to Watch:
Patrick Pinkney, East Carolina
Justin Willis, SMU