Conference USA Preview

Now that The Greatest Tournament of All Time has reached its epic conclusion and 2001 Miami has been crowned “Greatest College Football Team of All Time”, it’s time to get the preseason predictions for 2009 kicked off. I’ll start by posting my conference previews, and follow that up with my preseason Top 50 rankings. First up: Conference USA.Projected Records & Standings

East Division

1. EAST CAROLINA      10-2  (7-1)
2. SOUTHERN MISS       7-5  (5-3)
3. MEMPHIS             6-6  (4-4)
4. MARSHALL            6-6  (4-4)
5. CENTRAL FLORIDA     4-8  (2-6)
6. UAB                 3-9  (2-6)

West Division

1. HOUSTON             9-3  (7-1)
2. UTEP                7-5  (5-3)
3. TULSA               7-5  (5-3)
4. RICE                5-7  (4-4)
5. TULANE              4-8  (2-6)
6. SMU                 2-10 (1-7)

East Champion: EAST CAROLINA

When QB Patrick Pinkney was granted a sixth year medical redshirt it was the icing on the cake for Skip Holtz’s Pirates. ECU already had by far the best offensive and defensive lines in the conference, so to retain a veteran quarterback with the multitude of skills Pinkney has makes this an easy pick. Southern Miss is a popular choice to win the East Division, but ECU is the more veteran team. After sharpening their teeth in upsets of Virginia Tech and West Virginia a year ago, the Pirates might be on the verge of a Boise State-type breakout season.

West Champion: HOUSTON

Coach Kevin Sumlin made sure the Cougars didn’t skip a beat after Art Briles bolted for Baylor. The return of QB Case Keenum – this year’s version of Chase Clement – means Houston will probably score a billion points again. With Tulsa apparently taking a small step back, the door is wide open for Sumlin’s Cougs to claim the West crown.

Question the Hype: SMU

June Jones won at Hawaii, but to assume his “offense” would automatically light up the scoreboard in Dallas is absurd. The Mustangs have a long way to go to get back to respectability – they haven’t been to a bowl game since 1984 – and I don’t believe June Jones and his scheme can perform a miracle in only the second year of his tenure.

Could Surprise: MEMPHIS

Memphis is a team to look out for because of the talent on the offensive side of the ball. Not only do they return C-USA’s leading rusher (Curtis Steele) and tallest receiving corps (6’-8” Carlos Singleton and 6’-4” Duke Calhoun), the Tigers also benefit from the addition of Wisconsin transfer RB Lance Smith. QB Arkelon Hall has plenty of weapons at his disposal, so if he can improve his consistency this is a team that could compete for the East Division championship.

Faulk Trophy Candidates:
CB-Brandon Brinkley, Houston
WR-DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss
FS-Van Eskridge, East Carolina
RB-Damion Fletcher, Southern Miss
WR/KR-Damaris Johnson, Tulsa
QB-Case Keenum, Houston
RB/KR-Darius Marshall, Marshall
DE-Albert McClellan, Marshall
QB-Patrick Pinkney, East Carolina
WR-Carlos Singleton, Memphis
TE-Cody Slate, Marshall
QB-Trevor Vittatoe, UTEP
QB-Joe Webb, UAB
DE-C.J. Wilson, East Carolina

WEEK TWELVE - Preview

Sure, it’s hard to find games under the national radar in a week where seemingly every game is flying under the radar. There isn’t a single Top 25 matchup on the schedule, but I’ll give you three non-BCS conference games that will have an impact on the bowl season.

East Carolina (6-3) at Southern Miss (4-6)
(Saturday, 2 pm)
With new head coach Larry Fedora, you can expect Southern Miss to be a point scoring machine in a couple years. Fedora has made progress in his first season, and has some impressive weapons at his disposal on offense (RB Damion Fletcher, TE Shawn Nelson, WR DeAndre Brown). East Carolina started off the 2008 season with a bang, upsetting Virginia Tech and West Virginia on consecutive weekends. But since then a couple key injuries and a quarterback rotation derailed the season. ECU has picked up the pace with three straight wins, and Patrick Pinkney appears to have the quarterback job all to himself again. That’s all I need to know to give Skip Holtz’s veteran squad the advantage.
J.Pike’s Pick: East Carolina 24, Southern Miss 17

San Jose State (6-4) at Nevada (5-4)
(Saturday, 3 pm)
Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is really starting to come into his own. The sophomore kept Fresno State off balance all game long last Thursday night en route to an easy Wolfpack victory. Bruising Vai Taua is also emerging as one of the most productive running backs in the WAC. His impressive season total of 1,159 yards rushing this year includes the 263 yards he went for against Fresno State last week. San Jose State on the other hand is in a slump, losing two of their last three. Spartan quarterback Kyle Reed looked really good early in the season, but like the rest of the team, his play has declined of late. With home field advantage, Nevada will continue their late season surge with another impressive win.
J.Pike’s Pick: Nevada 26, San Jose State 17

Tulsa (8-1) at Houston (5-4)
(Saturday, 7 pm, CBS College Sports)
Neither one of these teams cares much about playing defense (Tulsa allows 388.6 yards per game; Houston gives up 385.2). However both are accomplished offensively, as they combine to score an average of 89.8 points per game, so this one has the look of a shootout. New Houston head coach Kevin Sumlin looks to have the Cougars on the right track, and with home field advantage they are more than capable of handing Tulsa their second loss in as many games. But the Golden Hurrican used their off week to stew over the Arkansas loss and will be ready to play. I expect senior quarterback David Johnson to lead a more complete Tulsa team to a high scoring win over a still-growing Houston team.
J.Pike’s Pick: Tulsa 54, Houston 44

Week Three Preview

Here are a few games that deserve your attention despite the fact they aren’t getting the hype of, say, Ohio State v USC this week. Each contest features non-BCS conference teams that will be in contention for bowl games and conference titles.

Central Michigan @ Ohio
Fresh off their near up set of Ohio State, the Bobcats of Ohio get to face MAC favorite Central Michigan. Central is coming off a big loss to #1 ranked Georgia, so they’ll be hungry to face someone on their own level again. Dan LeFevour will be too much for the Ohio defense.
J.Pike’s Pick: Central Michigan 34, Ohio 20

Air Force @ Houston
This might be the toughest game of the week to pick. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has done extremely well so far in Colorado Springs, and he looks to have a pretty good defense in tow this season. New Houston head coach Kevin Sumlin has been up and down in his first two games at the helm, and so far he can’t count on his defense to come up with stops. This game could go either way, but I’ll go with the disciplined Falcons of Air Force in a difficult non-conference road game.
J.Pike’s Pick: Air Force 28, Houston 24

Rice @ Vanderbilt
Both teams are 2-0 and coming off big wins. Vanderbilt came up with one of the program’s biggest wins in recent memory when they knocked off South Carolina on Thursday night. Rice simply scored three touchdowns in the final 7 minutes, including a game winning interception return for a touchdown with 11 seconds left, to overcome a 15 point 4th quarter deficit. This should be one of the more entertaining games of the week.
J.Pike’s Pick: Vanderbilt 31, Rice 27

Southern Miss @ Arkansas State
Who knew this would be a game to watch? Arkansas State jumped on my radar with a win over Texas A&M in week one, and Southern Miss was able to keep it relatively close against Auburn last week. I think Arkansas State’s bubble bursts here. Southern Miss has a talented team with a very potent offense. Corey Leonard and Arkansas State might pile 80+ points on 1-AA competition, but they won’t here. Welcome to the Mid-Leagues, Red Wolves.
J.Pike’s Pick: Southern Miss 34, Arkansas State 24

Bowling Green @ Boise State
Ian Johnson, the man responsible for scoring the game winning 2-point conversion against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl two seasons ago, is still in the backfield for the Broncos. That means he’ll get the ball early and often. Bowling Green visits the Smurf Turf after a puzzling first two weeks that saw them beat Pittsburgh and then get blown out by Minnesota. Boise shouldn’t have any problems, especially running the football.
J.Pike’s Pick: Boise State 37, Bowling Green 21

Top Coaching Hires

1. Bo Pelini, Nebraska

Everything coming out of Lincoln indicates this could be the type of hire that defines an era of a program. The sting of the Bill Callahan experiment/fiasco/disaster might have a little something to do with that, but at least Pelini has injected life back into a once proud program. The excitement has returned because Bo Pelini has a defensive pedigree that leads me to believe the “Blackshirt” tradition will be restored as early as August 31, 2008. Plus he’s got a fancy new National Championship ring, and I guarantee you he wants another one as soon as he can get a shot at it.

2. Houston Nutt, Ole Miss

It’s still weird to me how much Arkansas fans despised Houston Nutt. He did nothing but win in Fayetteville, which is tough to do in the SEC as consistently as he did. Now he takes over a decently stocked Ole Miss squad ready to get some competent coaching again. Ed Orgeron may not have had a clue how to get a football into the end zone, but he could recruit. Nutt left a bad situation and walked into a good situation where he can essentially pick up right where he left off. And do you think he’ll have a hard time recruiting running backs any time soon?

3. Mike Sherman, Texas A&M

This was a very quiet, calculated hire that is flying under a lot of radars. After making a big splash the last time around with Dennis Franchione, it might be exactly what the Aggies need. Sherman will bring fundamentally sound, smashmouth football back to College Station – and not “smashmouth” in the form of a 280-pound offensive guard playing running back. Sherman’s specialty is the offensive line, which is a great place to start in terms of building a program. With a little luck, he might be able to coach the Aggies back into the thick of the Big XII South discussion, which will get them back into the recruiting battles they’ve been missing out on in the state of Texas the last several years.

4. Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech

Paul Johnson won me over when I saw him win a Division 1-AA national title with Georgia Southern. He featured a ridiculously sound option attack that I have always been a sucker for. Then he got a shot at Navy, which at the time of his hire was considered to be a sinking ship (so to speak) in the modern college football world where recruiting speed is all that matters. Not only did he win at Navy, he did it by playing “old fashioned” football. He enters the ACC now where he’ll actually be able to recruit D-1A talent to run his schemes. You can bet on Georgia Tech being fundamentally sound and being one of the best rushing attacks in the nation when he finally gets all his players in place. That might just be enough to take over the ACC during it’s down years.

5. Rick Neuheisel, UCLA

Skippy gets this spot based more on his assistant coach hires than on his own merits. Now don’t get me wrong, I like the guy. He brings enthusiasm everywhere he goes, and he’s won too. But he’s also left two programs in bad shape and his act might be growing a little tired. Hiring Norm Chow to coach the offense was one of the smartest moves he could make. Chow brings instant credibility to the staff, as well as the ability to coach quarterbacks – that is, if there’s still a healthy quarterback on the roster. Neuheisel knows a thing or two about grooming quarterbacks as well. However, deciding to retain defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker (and then talking him into staying) might turn out to be his best move. Over the past couple seasons, Walker has quietly turned UCLA into one of the premier defenses in the west. Granted, that’s not saying a whole lot in the defensively-challenged Pac-10, but it’s still an accomplishment. Neuhesel has set himself up nicely to accomplish his goal of competing with crosstown rival USC.

6. Kevin Sumlin, Houston

This is a strong hire that will keep the momentum going in Houston.

7. Rich Rodriguez, Michigan

There will be several bumps in the road to installing his spread offense at Michigan, but they’ll be more competitive against Ohio State.

8. Bill Stewart, West Virginia

Stewart gives the program stability while it positions itself for a rare run for the national title. He also brings Jeff Mullen over from Wake Forest to run the offense.

9. tie - Steve Fairchild, Colorado State; Larry Fedora, Southern Miss

Both of these non-BCS schools have tradition, and both made solid selections to replace long-time, successful coaches.

10. tie - David Cutcliffe, Duke; Art Briles, Baylor

These are two bright offensive minds, but will it really matter? These are programs where coaching careers have gone to die lately.