Big Ten Preview

Projected Records & Standings

1. PENN STATE         11-1  (7-1)
2. OHIO STATE         10-2  (6-2)
3. ILLINOIS            8-4  (5-3)
4. MICHIGAN            9-3  (5-3)
5. MICHIGAN STATE      7-5  (4-4)
6. IOWA                7-5  (4-4)
7. NORTHWESTERN        8-4  (4-4)
8. MINNESOTA           5-7  (3-5)
9. WISCONSIN           6-6  (3-5)
10.PURDUE              4-8  (2-6)
11.INDIANA             3-9  (1-7)

Champion: PENN STATE
The schedule sets up nicely for Penn State with Ohio State visiting Happy Valley. Those two are enough ahead of the rest of the pack that the conference title will probably come down to that game. Give the Nittany Lions the advantage because of senior quarterback Daryll Clark and what should again be a very good defense. The return of Sean Lee at linebacker will only make Navorro Bowman better. And Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu make up one of the best defensive tackle duos in the land. Add to that a running back who is one of the most underappreciated players in the nation in Evan Royster running behind an athletic offensive line and there is a real possibility Penn State could run the table and sneak their way into the National Title game.

Could Surprise: MICHIGAN

With seemingly everybody rooting against Rich Rodriguez at this point, it’s time to bring up the fact that his teams usually take the biggest step forward in year two. The defense didn’t always play well, but with players like DE Brandon Graham and LB Obi Ezeh the Wolverine defense should be in fine form. If the offense shows even the slightest bit of improvement – and there’s really no where else to go but up – Big Blue should find themselves in the top half of the Big Ten standings where they belong.

Here’s an early upset pick: Michigan will beat Ohio State in Ann Arbor this November.

Question the Hype: BIG TEN CONFERENCE
This conference is in a state of flux. Penn State and Ohio State are clearly the front-runners, but neither has proven capable of beating good teams from other conferences in recent seasons. Somebody is going to have to pick up a big NON-conference win in order to reverse the perception that the Big Ten is lagging behind the other major conferences. Unfortunately, outside of Ohio State playing USC, most of these schools seem content to avoid playing big non-conference games. So don’t be surprised if the Big Ten gets their clocks cleaned come bowl season yet again.

Bo Jackson Trophy Candidates:
Top 3:
QB-Juice Williams, Illinois
QB-Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State
RB-Evan Royster, Penn State

Ten to Watch:
WR-Arrelious Benn, Illinois
RB-Carlos Brown, Michigan
OT-Bryan Bulaga, Iowa
OT-Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
QB-Daryll Clark, Penn State
WR-Eric Decker, Minnesota
RB-Jewel Hampton, Iowa
RB-Dan Herron, Ohio State
RB-Jaycen Taylor, Purdue
C-Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State

Arrington Trophy Candidates:
Top 3:
DE-Brandon Graham, Michigan
DT-Jared Odrick, Penn State
LB-Martez Wilson, Illinois

Ten to Watch:
LB-Pat Angerer, Iowa
LB-Navorro Bowman, Penn State
CB-Chimdi Chekwa, Ohio State
SS-Kurt Coleman, Ohio State
LB-Obi Ezeh, Michigan
LB-Greg Jones, Michigan State
DE-Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DT-Ollie Ogbu, Penn State
CB-Donovan Warren, Michigan
DE-Corey Wootton, Northwestern

Arrington Trophy Finalists

LaVAR ARRINGTON TROPHY

The Arrington Trophy is a Pikes Picks award handed out annually to the best defensive player in the nation. It is named after former Penn State linebacker LaVar Arrington for his menacing defensive presence. Arrington had one of the most memorable moments in college football over the last decade when he made his now-famous "LaVar Leap" to stop Illinois on 4th down [LINK].

There were so many great offenses in college football this year that it's easy to forget about all the great players on the defensive side of the ball. I had a hard time narrowing my list down to eight finalists (sorry Sen'Derrick Marks), but here they are.

J.Pike's Finalists

ERIC BERRY
(Sophomore S, Tennessee)
Key Stats
72 tackles;
7 interceptions (2 returned for touchdown);
6 passes broken up;
3 sacks;
8.5 tackles for loss;
Eric Berry is so impressive that he continually stood out as one of the best players in the SEC despite playing for one of the worst teams in the conference. He defines the term "playmaker".

BRANDON GRAHAM
(Junior DE, Michigan)
Key Stats
46 tackles;
10 sacks;
20 tackles for loss;
2 forced fumbles;
Much like Berry, Graham took over games at times despite playing for a terrible team. There were several great defensive ends in the Big Ten this sesason, but Graham stands out from the pack because of his consistency.

MARK HERZLICH
(Junior LB, Boston College)
Key Stats
105 tackles (leads the team);
3 sacks;
11 tackles for loss;
6 interceptions (2 returned for touchdown);
7 passes broken up;
2 forced fumbles, 2 fumbles recovered;
Herzlich made his living around the ball in 2008. No matter where the play went, Herzlich was there. He led the Eagles with a remarkable 6 interceptions, but he also made plays behind the line of scrimmage. It didn't stop there - Herzlich was a terror on special teams as well!

PERIA JERRY
(Senior DT, Ole Miss)
Key Stats
47 tackles;
6 sacks;
17 tackles for loss;
3 QB pressures;
2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery;
Jerry dominated the line of scrimmage in SEC play, which is not an easy feat. He managed an incredible 17 tackles for loss from a position usually limited to tangling up blockers so other players can make the tackle.

RASHAD JOHNSON
(Senior S, Alabama)
Key Stats
82 tackles (2nd on team);
5 interceptions (2 returned for touchdown);
11 passes broken up;
1 sack, 5 tackles for loss;
1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery;
Johnson was the standout player on a standout Alabama defense in 2008. Whenever the Tide needed a big play, Johnson was there to make it. Not bad for a former walk on.

REY MAUALUGA
(Senior LB, USC)
Key Stats
73 tackles (leads the team);
2.5 tackles for loss;
2 interceptions (one returned for touchdown);
3 passes broken up;
Maualuga was the vocal and emotional leader on one of the best defenses in America. He set the tone and led the way for the Trojans, who held all but two opponents to 10 points or less.

BRIAN ORAKPO
(Senior DE, Texas)
Key Stats
40 tackles;
10.5 sacks;
18 takles for loss;
4 forced fumbes;
27 QB pressures;
2 passes broken up;
Orakpo is an impressive physical specimen at defensive end for the Lonhorns. His size/speed combination is unmatched in college football, and it allowed him to pile up double digits in sacks and live in opponents' backfields all season long. He dominated Oklahoma's All American left tackle Phil Loadholt back in October to the tune of 2 sacks and 4 tackles for loss.

ALPHONSO SMITH
(Senior CB, Wake Forest)
Key Stats
36 tackles;
6 interceptions;
13 passes broken up;
2.5 tackles for loss;
1 blocked punt;
20 career interceptions;
You'd think offenses would stop throwing Smith's way after he collected 14 interceptions over his first three years at Wake. But Smith kept finding ways to make plays and pick off passes even with game plans designed to go as far away from him as possible.

WEEK THIRTEEN - Preview

Michigan (+20½) over Ohio State
Call it a hunch, or call it a reaction to the widely held opinion that Ohio State is going to blow Michigan out – I feel like Michigan will cover this spread. The Wolverines aren’t as bad as their record, and Ohio State doesn’t typically blow people out. Michigan will play one good half and one bad half as usual, but I think the good half will be enough to keep the final score within three touchdowns.

Air Force (+18½) over TCU
I have my concerns over whether TCU will “show up” for this game or not. Even if they do, I’m not sure they can beat Air Force by more than 18 points. The Falcons have a pesky habit of hanging around.

Middle Tennessee (-19½) over North Texas High
There are only two more chances to bet against North Texas this season!

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Buffalo (+3½) over Bowling Green
Vanderbilt (-3) over Tennessee
Washington (-7½) over Washington State
Rice (-8½) over Marshall
Tulsa (-28½) over Tulane
Michigan State (+14½) over Penn State
Oregon State (+3) over Arizona
Minnesota (+5½) over Iowa

News & Notes

*BYU could be without two key starters on offense Saturday night when they take on undefeated rival Utah. All-Mountain West offensive lineman Ray Feinga is listed as questionable due to a lower back strain. Tight end Dennis Pitta, a big part of the passing game with 76 receptions for 992 yards (3rd best in the conference), is also listed as questionable due to a sprained knee. If both of these players aren't able to play, it could spell big trouble against the stout Ute defense.

*North Carolina head coach Butch Davis has opened up the quarterback job again. T.J. Yates, the starter until a broken left ankle caused him to miss the last 7 games, is now healthy enough to play. Cam Sexton went 4-2 in his absence, but his struggles against Maryland caused Davis to re-evaluate the position. I expect Yates to win his job back and lead the Tarheels the rest of the way.

*Steven Threet probably won't be available for Michigan this weekend thanks to a shoulder injury. The reeling Wolverines take on bitter rival Ohio State, and they will be forced to go with Nick Sheridan at quarterback. With a 3-8 record already guaranteeing this to be the worst season in the program's history, Threet's injury can't be considered much more than par for the course this year.

*Notre Dame will be without two starters for the next two games. Freshman wide receiver Michael Floyd and middle linebacker Brian Smith both suffered knee injuries in the win against Navy Saturday. Smith was the team's fourth leading tackler, but Floyd is the more damaging loss. The rangy freshman is easily one of the best skill players the Domers have had in years and he has already had a notable impact on the offense.

*Tennessee head coach Phil Fulmer is electing to start Jonathan Crompton at quarterback. The Vols travel to face in-state rival Vanderbilt this weekend, who happen to have one of the most talented secondaries in the SEC. I have a feeling it won't take long for Compton to get yanked for poor play once again.

*Finally, here's some early news for the Ball State/Western Michigan game in a couple of weeks. Two time All-MAC cornerback Londen Fryar might miss what could be an epic matchup due to a toe injury. The injury caused him to miss last week's game against Toledo, but the Broncos have a bye week and hope he can recover in time.

Gameday Commentary - 11 o'clock games

Notre Dame 27, Navy 21

Navy nearly made their second remarkable fourth quarter comeback in as many weeks. Trailing 27-7 in the fourth quarter, sophomore quarterback Ricky Dobbs sparked a comeback that included two onside kick recoveries, but fell just short.

Notre Dame displayed an excellent running game. The three headed monster of James Aldridge, Armando Allen, and Robert Hughes combined to pound the undersized Navy defense to the tune of 230 rushing yards.

Yet again, Jimmy Clausen was inconsistent and threw two interceptions. If Notre Dame wants to get better, they'll rely more on their solid running game than on the unreliable arm of the overconfident Clausen.

Keep an eye on Navy's Dobbs. I have a feeling you'll be hearing a lot about him over the next two years. He's got great athleticism to run the triple option, but he has a stronger arm than any Navy quarterback in recent memory.

Northwestern 21, Michigan 14
Michigan lost their school record 8th game of the season in snow flurries against Northwestern. I know this is going to prompt even more criticism from Michigan fans and the national media, but everyone needs to hit the breaks a little bit.

Sure, and 8-loss season is something Michigan should never have to experience, but when you consider the magnitude of the overhaul taking place to the offense, you have to expect some setbacks. Watching the game, I didn't get the feeling that Michigan was a terrible team. Defensively they are actually quite good.

The 2008 Wolverines are simply a team in transition, and hasn't been able to catch any breaks this season. So lay off Rich Rodriguez (at least for the time being), because he needs at least a couple more years to get his players in place before it's fair to make a judgment on the job he is doing in Ann Arbor.

Georgia 17, Auburn, 13
As expected this was an ugly, low scoring game. Auburn proved to me they haven't quit on this season. Despite all the coaching turmoil and the mounting losses, the Auburn players were still giving a solid effort on the field, and almost pulled the upset.

The main question I had watching the game is: what in the world was Tony Franklin thinking? For some reason, Franklin had it in his head that Chris Todd was a better quarterback than Kodi Burns. Well, he couldn't have been more wrong - and maybe that had something to do with his firing at mid-season.

Burns played a solid game against Georgia. His athleticism is obviously far superior to Todd's, but Burns proved to me today that he is a much better pocket passer as well. Burns has a stronger arm, and more importantly, doesn't panic in the pocket and make stupid throws the way Todd did. In the SEC, you can't have a quarterback that can't handle a pass rush.

WEEK ELEVEN - Gameday Preview

Michigan (+7½) over Minnesota
The Michigan defense was torched to the tune of 522 yards and 48 points a week ago against Purdue, but I still have faith in them. Defensive end Brandon Graham and the front seven are more than capable of corralling Minnesota quarterback Adam Weber when he runs, and Donovan Warren and Morgan Trent are solid corners who should be able to prevent Weber from throwing the ball all over the yard. I like Minnesota to find a way to win this game at home, but I don’t think it will be by more than a touchdown.

Wisconsin (-10) over Indiana
Wisconsin has their running game back, as evidenced by the 281 yards on the ground last weekend against Michigan State. That doesn’t bode well for Indiana, who ranks eighth in the Big Ten against the run. I expect John Clay and P.J. Hill to have big games in leading a Wisconsin rout.

Rice (-9½) over Army
Army is improving, but they still can’t match Rice’s firepower. Chase Clement and the gang shouldn’t have a problem scoring between 30 and 40 points on Army, which all but guarantees at least a ten point win.

Arizona (-39) over Washington State
Washington State has been generous all year. Despite huge spreads like this one, they have failed to cover in all 8 of their games against 1-A competition. In fact, the Cougars average margin of defeat in Pac-10 play this season is by a whopping 52.8 points! Arizona has scored over 40 points four times this season, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them top 60 here.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Purdue (+9½) over Michigan State
Tennessee (-25½) over Wyoming
Iowa State (+10) over Colorado
Penn State (-7) over Iowa
Virginia (+3½) over Wake Forest
N.C. State (+4½) over Duke
Florida Atlantic (-21) over North Texas High
Cincinnati (+8) over West Virginia

WEEK TEN - Preview

West Virginia (-3½) over Connecticut
Connecticut is actually a pretty tough team to beat on their home field. But without their top two quarterbacks the Huskies are vulnerable. West Virginia finally seems to be putting things together, so I expect them to stay hot and win by a touchdown or more.

Michigan (+1½) over Purdue
Purdue stinks. Curtis Painter is injured and might not play, but that doesn’t matter. Michigan has the defense to keep Purdue off the scoreboard and quarterback Steven Threet has improved enough to manufacture enough points to win outright.

Georgia (+5½) over Florida
I’m a little surprised the spread is this much in favor of Florida. Mark Richt wins the coaching battle here, and Knowshon Moreno will carry his team to victory over the speedy Gators. Texas (-6) over Texas Tech Like taking candy from a baby. Texas has won by an average of 18 points in the last five meetings. Texas Tech is the same old Texas Tech, but this might be Mack Brown’s best team yet.

Western Kentucky (-16½) over North Texas High School’s Varsity Football Team
How hilarious is it that a team with exactly zero wins over Division 1-A opponents is favored by 16½ over NTHS? The Hilltoppers are only averaging 10.5 points per game against D1-A competition for goodness sake! Take Western Kentucky anyway - they’ll win by 17.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Central Michigan (+2½) over Indiana
Kansas State (+11½) over Kansas
Arkansas State (+23½) over Alabama
Missouri (-20) over Baylor
Iowa State (+31) over Oklahoma State
Washington (+43) over USC
New Mexico (+7½) over Utah

Gameday Commentary - 5:30 pm

*Kansas State is a bad team. There are no fundamentals at all; nobody on defense can tackle; there are breakdowns in the special teams; and worst of all, the team has no confidence. I feel bad for the players in this situation. The coaching staff is clueless from and X's & O's standpoint, and on top of that, Ron Prince made them run laps in the middle of the night when they got back from a road loss against Louisville a couple weeks ago. Ron Prince looks like he's in his final season as head coach in Manhattan.

*I still like Jim Harbaugh at Stanford. He's a fiery head coach who doesn't let his team quit. Even when his team trailed 28-7 in the third quarter, the Cardinal never quit and Harbaugh was fighting for calls. Stanford ended up cutting the lead to 28-21 and had the ball with a chance to tie.

*I have to give Chris Smelley some credit. He played a great game today in South Carolina's win over Ole Miss.

*Kentucky is giving Alabama all they can handle. Alabama has been great this year, and the defense is playing up to those standards today. But Kentucky is laying the blue print for how to stop the Crimson Tide offense. John Parker Wilson hasn't been a big part of the conservative game plan, but he's not doing his part. Wilson has struggled mightily on throws down the field. Also, kicker Leigh Tiffin has been awful today.

*I've said it once, I'll say it again: I'm not sure there's a quarterback in the country with a stronger arm than Juice Williams.

*Michigan quarterback Steven Threet is coming around. He looked very average early in the season, but his accuracy has improved, particularly on the deep throws that you have to complete to keep defenses from loading up the box.

*Tommy Tuberville is taking his team back! After putting up with Tony Franklin's ridiculous spread offense for the first several weeks (and getting poor results), Tuberville clearly straightened things out this week. The first few drives included more non-shotgun formations than Auburn has run all season. That allowed them to take advantage of Ben Tate's strengths and build a 13-0 lead. Also, Auburn's defense is as good as it has ever been. If the offense keeps playing REAL football (as opposed to that shotgun every play/sideways running nonsense Franklin has been running all year), Auburn is a team that can have legit national title dreams.

*The discovery of the day: Miami WR/KR Travis Benjamin. The freshman has incredible speed and agility and has played a huge role in getting Miami back in the game in the second half against Florida State. Keep an eye on this kid because he'll be making some big plays this year and beyond.

Gameday Commentary - Morning Games

Ohio State 26, Ohio 14
Ohio State actually trailed early in the 4th quarter of this game against Frank Solich's Bobcats. The Buckeyes were clearly playing vanilla football, but they displayed zero emotion until the fourth quarter when a Roy Small punt return for touchdown broke the game open.
J.Pike's Thoughts:
*Ohio State is going to struggle to score against USC next week. The running game struggled mightily against Ohio, most notably not being able to pick up a 4th and short at one point in the first half. Granted, Beanie Wells wasn't playing and he'll be a factor, but the bigger problem is that Ohio State's receivers are average at best. Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline just don't want to go get the ball, and you better believe they'll need to make a play or two against USC to avoid three-and-outs on every series.
*The Ohio Bobcats played a great game. Solich had his team ready to play and they looked like they belonged on the same field as Ohio State. Even when starting quarterback Theo Scott went down with an injury in the first half, Boo Jackson stepped right in and showed the same poise in directing the offense against what appears to be a slightly overrated Buckeye defense.

Michigan 16, Miami(OH) 6
Michigan looked pretty decent jumping out to a 10-0 lead early in the first half, but basically had to hold on to beat a scrappy Redhawk team that wouldn't go away.
J.Pike's Thoughts:
*Miami(OH) punter Jacob Richardson put himself firmly in the running for the inaugural Sproles/Sauerbrun Award for Special Teams player of the year. His booming punts single-handedly kept Miami in the game. He finished the day with 7 punts for a 54 yard average, landed 4 punts inside the 20 yard line, and boomed a 74 yarder at one point.
*Michigan doesn't have a quarterback. Steven Threet can run pretty well for a 6'6" guy, but his accuracy in the passing game leaves a lot to be desired. He missed just about every open receiver beyond five yards the whole game. Nick Sheridan is a more accurate passer, but he doesn't have a good arm and can't execute the zone read play as effectively. It will be a chore for Michigan to put points on the board this season.
*Daniel Raudabaugh played a good game for Miami(OH). He was by far the best quarterback on the field today, displaying good arm strength and the ability to make some very good touch throws - as long as he isn't rushed.

Georgia Tech 19, Boston Colleg 16
Persistency was the key for Georgia Tech's running game today. After running up against the brick wall that is BC's front seven for about three quarters, Jonathan Dwyer finally busted a 43-yard touchdown run on an option pitch midway through the fourth quarter to put the game away. Tech finished with 166 rushing yards, and only 240 total yards in the game, but it was enough to secure the win and a 2-0 start for new coach Paul Johnson.
J.Pike's Thoughts:
*I was wrong. Chris Crane is no Matt Ryan. Crane struggled mightily, taking a safety, throwing two interceptions, and making several other poor throws that should have been interceptions as well. The BC defense is good, but they'll need at least a little help from the offense if they are going to win games in the ACC this year.
*Paul Johnson is off to a great start so far in his Georgia Tech coaching career. His team wasn't as good as the Boston College team overall, but they won the fundamentals battle. His commitment to the running game paid off and they have a solid enough defense that they are going to win some games in the ACC this year. A bowl game is definitely in store.

News & Notes

*Jim Tressell said that running back Chris Wells will be fine. However, he did not give any indication whether he would be okay to play this weekend against Ohio or not. My guess is they hold him out this weekend to make sure he’s healthy for USC next week.

*Georgia suffered another blow this weekend when defensive tackle Jeff Owens tore his ACL against Georgia Southern and will be out for the rest of the season. Georgia already lost their best offensive lineman Trinton Sturdivant to a knee injury a couple weeks ago and can’t afford any more serious injuries to key players considering the ridiculous schedule they must face this year.

*Mack Brown has suspended defensive tackle Lamarr Houston for the game this weekend against UTEP. Houston played well against Florida Atlantic and is a key player on the defensive line, but he picked up a DWI charge after the game on Saturday night.

*Missouri's Bo Jackson Award candidate Jeremy Maclin might play this weekend against Southeast Missouri State despite a sprained ankle. This is good news to Tiger fans because it means Maclin should be able to get back to 100% by the time the Big XII schedule rolls around.

*Reports out of Louisiana indicate that the Troy at LSU game scheduled for this weekend will be postponed. Both teams have an open date on November 15th, so that seems to be the most likely date for the game to be played.

*Chris Todd was named the starting quarterback for Auburn’s game against Southern Miss this weekend. Kodi Burns, who started last weekend, suffered a cut on his leg, but Tuberville said he wouldn’t have started anyway.

*After playing well in relief of Tommy Beecher last Thursday night, Chris Smelley will start for South Carolina this Thursday night against Vanderbilt. Stephen Garcia is expected to be the backup as Spurrier’s revolving door at quarterback continues.

*Yeah, that was a bad idea. Frank Beamer has decided not to redshirt quarterback Tyrod Taylor after all. Sean Glennon played, well, like Sean Glennon in the loss to East Carolina on Saturday, and Beamer apparently realized Taylor is the only offensive weapon on the roster. Glennon will start, but Taylor will play this weekend against Furman.

*Rich Rodriguez announced that he will redshirt quarterback Justin Feagin this season. Despite the struggles of Nick Sheridan and Stephen Threat against Utah, Rodriguez said the speedy freshman “isn’t ready yet.”

*The funniest story of the weekend had to be in North Carolina where parachuters jumped into the wrong stadium with the game ball. Read for yourself. [LINK]

WEEK ONE - Preview

UPSET WATCH

Wake Forest @ Baylor
(Thursday, 7pm, FSN)
Why it could happen: Wake Forest is getting fat from all the preseason hype and is slightly overrated. Baylor head coach Art Briles will have his team fired up and ready to play the best game fans in Waco have seen in several years.
Why it won’t happen: Wake isn’t that overrated. Baylor will hang in there for a while on the high of the new coaching staff and their home crowd, but the Demon Deacon defense will come up with key stops down the stretch.

Virginia Tech vs East Carolina
(Saturday, 11am, ESPN)
Why it could happen: East Carolina returns quarterback Patrick Pinkney and a large portion of their defense. Virginia Tech on the other hand loses just about every key playmaker off last year’s team that was pushed to the limit by this same Pirate team.
Why it won’t happen: Virginia Tech still has too much overall talent to lose this game. It will be close throughout and the Hokies will need some offensive skill players to step up and make some plays, but in the end the Hokie defense has enough talent to shut down the ECU offense in a low scoring affair.

UPSET WARNING

Utah @ Michigan
(Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Michigan simply isn’t ready. New head coach Rich Rodriguez has too many new offensive schemes to put in and not enough players to run them. Utah plays plenty of defense and quarterback Brian Johnson is more than ready to duplicate what Armanti Edwards did to the Wolverines in The Big House last season.

Michigan State @ California
(Saturday, 7pm, ABC)
Why it will happen: Mark Dantonio’s Spartans are simply too physical for Cal. Jahvid Best has excellent speed and Kevin Riley will be an upgrade over Nate Longshore at quarterback, but in the end Michigan State will win it with defense and Javon Ringer.

LOCKS

I promised myself I would never get in the habit of picking games against the spread. But each week I'll take a look at the lines and if anything jumps out at me I'll let you know. Don't get used to looking at that fancy graphic is all I'm saying...

N.C. State (+12) over South Carolina
(Thursday, 7pm, ESPN)
South Carolina has an excellent defense, there’s no question about that. But at this stage of the season I’m not convinced their offense can even score 12 points.

East Carolina (+10) over Virginia Tech
(Saturday, 11am, ESPN)
Poly only won by 10 at home last year. Tech loses just about their entire starting defense and many key skill players on offense and must travel to Charlotte, NC this year.

Illinois (+8½) over Missouri
(Saturday, 7:30pm, ESPN)
Missouri will probably jump out to a big lead, much the way they did last season in this game. But Ron Zook will make adjustments and Illinois will take this rivalry game down to the wire.

Northern Illinois (+8½) over Minnesota
(Saturday, 6pm)
Minnesota is garbage until they prove to me otherwise. After going 1-11 and losing to Bowling Green and North Dakota State a year ago, I’m not convinced Minnesota can beat a MAC team that returns 18 starters. Even if they do it won’t be by much with that awful defense.