JP Top 25 - Week 9

The top four for me is pretty easy. After that is when things get interesting. You could toss teams 5-9 up in the air and make a pretty good case for whatever order they landed in. Iowa, in particular, is hard to gauge. Does a team that needed not one but TWO blocked field goals in the closing seconds to beat 1-AA Northern Iowa - not to mention a fourth quarter comeback and a couple questionable calls by the officials to beat lowly Indiana - really merit consideration as a top 5 team? Or do you reward their ability to come from behind and just win games on a weekly basis? Take a look at how it shook out for me this week.

Rk. School (Record, Last week's rank)
1. Texas (8-0, 1)
2. Alabama (8-0, 2)
3. Florida (8-0, 3)
4. TCU (8-0, 4)
5. Iowa (9-0, 5)
6. Georgia Tech (8-1, 6)
7. Cincinnati (8-0, 9)
8. Boise State (8-0, 10)
9. Oregon (7-1, 12)
10. LSU (7-1, 13)
11. Pittsburgh (7-1, 11)
12. USC (6-2, 7)
13. Penn State (8-1, 14)
14. Ohio State (7-2, 15)
15. Virginia Tech (5-3, 8)
16. Miami (6-2, 16)
17. Oklahoma (5-3, 17)
18. Notre Dame (6-2, 18)
19. Arizona (5-2, 19)
20. Utah (7-1, NR)
21. South Florida (6-2, NR)
22. Houston (7-1, 22)
23. Oklahoma State (6-2, 23)
24. Oregon State (5-3, NR)
25. Wisconsin (6-2, 25)

Just missed the cut:

West Virginia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn, BYU, California

WEEK EIGHT - Preview

Boise State (-5) over Hawaii
Boise State will win by at least two touchdowns. [LINK]

Wisconsin (+3½) over Iowa
Whoa, let’s all take a step back. Sure, Wisconsin is a disappointing 3-3 right now, but since when is losing games to Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State such a damning indictment? No matter how bad it looks for Wisconsin right now, the Badgers are still a better team than the Hawkeyes. Hitting the road to get away from the grumbling home fans will actually work to Wisky’s advantage as they maul Iowa in the trenches, pick up a win, and get their season back on track. Note to Iowa, your pink locker rooms aren’t as insulting when you don’t have Brad Banks out there slicing up defenses anymore.

Louisiana-Monroe (-18½) over North Texas High
Here we go again. My favorite D-1A high school team is getting 18½ points and I still think you should pick against them. The Mean Green showed signs of life last week, but still managed to lose by 29 and drop to 0-6 on the season. This week will be no different as North Texas High takes another step on the road to a winless season!

San Jose State (-2½) over New Mexico State
This is a weird one to call as a lock, but I have a lot of faith in San Jose State quarterback Kyle Reed. He’s a late addition to the Faulk Trophy watch list, but he’s very deserving of the honor. He’ll slice and dice the Aggie secondary and run circles around pursuing defensive linemen. San Jose State is slightly underrated and I think they’ll handle Hal Mumme’s troops with ease.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
South Florida (-24) over Syracuse
Connecticut (-1) over Rutgers
Miami, Ohio (+9½) over Bowling Green
Ole Miss (+13½) over Alabama
Michigan (+23½) over Penn State
Colorado (-3) over Kansas State
Washington (+14) over Oregon State
Illinois (-16½) over Indiana
Air Force (-4½) over UNLV

WEEK FIVE - Preview

UPSET WATCH

Maryland @ #16 Clemson
Why it could happen: Clemson isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. For all their talent, they haven’t managed to put together a complete game yet this year. Maryland on the other hand seems to be hitting their stride since Chris Turner took over at quarterback.
Why it won’t happen: Clemson’s defense won’t allow Turner to make the same plays he made against Cal. James Davis and the running game put up 249 rushing yards against the Terps last year, and I expect them to approach that again this weekend. But it won’t be easy.
J.Pike’s Pick: Clemson 26, Maryland 18

Marshall @ West Virginia
Why it could happen: Marshall was up on West Virginia at halftime in last season’s matchup, and Mark Snyder finally has the Herd back on the winning track in 2008.
Why it won’t happen: West Virginia has struggled to find an identity early on, but they at least got back to the running game last week against Colorado. Pat White and Noel Devine have too much speed for the Marshall defense and they’ll find their way to the end zone more times than the Herd offense will.
J.Pike’s Pick: West Virginia 32, Marshall 27

UPSET WARNING

Northwestern @ Iowa
Why it will happen: Northwestern is better than anybody is giving them credit for so far. They play solid defense and have two playmakers on offense (QB C.J. Bacher & RB Tyrell Sutton) that Iowa can’t match. Northwestern can flat out manufacture more points than Iowa. Bacher will have a big day.
J.Pike’s Pick: Northwestern 27, Iowa 17

Colorado vs Florida State
(@ Jacksonville, FL)
Why it will happen: Florida State is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation right now. The play they have gotten from their quarterbacks the past 7+ years has been atrocious, and it has led to the deterioration of the offense to the point it’s at now. The Noles still like to talk trash and attempt to intimidate their opponents before the game (see photo evidence from last week's loss to Wake Forest), but that doesn’t work as well when you’re a .500 team. In fact it just makes you look like a bunch of morons. Colorado running back Rod Stewart will send Florida State away on a Downtown Train with a 2-2 record.
J.Pike’s Pick: Colorado 21, Florida State 13

Northwestern (+8) over Iowa
There’s no way Iowa is 8 points better than Northwestern because I think Northwestern is better than Iowa straight up.

Ole Miss (+23) over Florida
Florida isn’t clicking offensively yet this year and Urban Meyer is too busy complaining about the new clock rules to fix it. Last year it was his running backs’ fault the Gators couldn’t run the ball. You might want to take a look in the mirror sometime, Urb? Houston Nutt will have Ole Miss ready to play and they’ll make it a game into the fourth quarter.

Cincinnati (-10) over Akron
Now that Tony Pike has proven himself at quarterback, I expect Cincinnati to continue putting up 40 point games against inferior opponents such as Akron. Cincy wins big as Pike continues his late bid for the Heisman Trophy.

Rice (-18½) over North Texas High
Rice quarterback Chase Clement is actually pretty good. Facing one of the best high school teams in the state of Texas might be imposing for Hurst L.D. Bell, but Clement will have no problems. Rice will roll to a four touchdown win. At least North Texas High can get back to concentrating on winning their district and making State after this beat down.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to give them “Lock” status:
Duke (-7) over Virginia
Arkansas (+27½) over Texas
Colorado (+6) over Florida State
Purdue (+2½) over Notre Dame
Marshall (+15½) over West Virginia
Navy (+16) over Wake Forest
Oregon (-19½) over Washington State

Week Three Preview

Iowa State (+13) over Iowa
This rivalry has produced some very close games recently. Both schools are 2-0 this season, and Iowa has won their two contests by a combined score of 88-3. Don’t let that fool you though – Iowa’s big wins came against Maine and Florida International. Iowa State is a team on the rise with Gene Chizik at the helm, and he has an impressive quarterback in Austin Arnaud. The Cyclones will keep this game close and have a good shot at winning the game outright.

Baylor (+2½) over Washington State
Baylor is bad, but Washington State might be worse. Coming off a 66-3 loss at the hands of Cal, the Cougars must travel to Waco to face an offense that seems be gaining their footing in Art Briles’ new offense. Baylor will pick up the first meaningful win of the Briles era in this one.

Central Michigan (-3½) over Ohio
Don’t be fooled by Ohio’s gutsy performance against Ohio State last weekend. They still don’t stand much of a chance against MAC powerhouse Central Michigan. QB Dan LeFevour will show the Buckeyes how to move the ball against Frank Solich’s Bobcats.

UCLA (+9) over BYU
I’m not sure how BYU is favored by 9 points in this game. UCLA plays great defense and will get after Max Hall all day long. That will keep the game close enough for UCLA’s offense, hobbled by injuries, to sneak out with the win.

Southern Miss (+1½) over Arkansas State
Arkansas State has produced two “whoa” moments already this year. In week one they beat Texas A&M in College Station, and last week they scored 83 points in a win over Texas Southern. But Southern Miss still has the overall talent edge with running back Damion Fletcher and tight end Shawn Nelson. USM wins this one outright.

Stanford (+12) over TCU
This was a tight contest last year, and that was only Jim Harbaugh’s first season. Stanford is playing even more consistent football this season and they’ve already got two conference games under their belt. That early season experience gives the Cardinal a slight edge over TCU so if they don’t win outright, they’ll definitely keep it within 12.

Other games I like, but don’t feel good enough about to qualify them as “Locks":
Illinois (-24½) over Louisiana-Lafayette
Oregon (-7½) over Purdue
Penn State (-26½) over Syracuse
Michigan (Pick’em) over Notre Dame
Georgia Tech (+7) over Virginia Tech
Western Michigan (-8) over Idaho
Mississippi State (+10½) over Auburn
Kentucky (-16½) over Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma (-20) over Washington
Utah (-24½) over Utah State

Week Three Preview

UPSET WATCH

#1 Georgia @ South Carolina
Why it could happen: Because it happened last year. South Carolina’s defense was able to keep Georgia out of the end zone, and they are loaded on that side of the ball this year.
Why it won’t happen: Georgia is a much better team now than the one that lost to USC a year ago. Even though there are mostly the same faces, this team grew up after that loss, and Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford are now two of the best in the country.
J.Pike’s Pick: Georgia 24, South Carolina 13

Iowa State @ Iowa
Why it could happen: It’s a rivalry game and anything can happen. On top of that, Iowa State is a team on the rise. Gene Chizik has the offense headed in the right direction and freshman quarterback Austin Arnaud is more than capable of leading an upset victory.
Why it won’t happen: The Iowa defense isn’t as good as their stats so far this year, but they’re good enough. The Hawkeyes seem to be playing better as a team this year, and their offensive line finally seems up to Kirk Ferentz standards. That will give Iowa the ability to control the ball and the clock, which will ultimately be the key to victory.
J.Pike’s Pick: Iowa 27, Iowa State 24

UPSET WARNING

#9 Auburn @ Mississippi State
Why it will happen: Mississippi State will keep the turnovers to a minimum and play outstanding defense. The new Auburn offense will learn a lesson about abandoning physical football. Good luck with that sideways running game against the speedy Bulldogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Mississippi State 15, Auburn 12

Stanford @ TCU
Why it will happen: TCU is always sketchy when they are supposed to be good. Stanford on the other hand has been playing over their heads ever since Jim Harbaugh took the job. Running back Toby Gerhart will prove you can run the ball against the usually stout TCU defense and Stanford will out-heart the Horned Frogs.
J.Pike’s Pick: Stanford, 27, TCU 24